BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
At 17-11 the loss mark mattering but one win vs a dreg Gtown should do it.
Watch out for 16-11 Texas A&M on the fringes
2 Quad 1 shots this week..Bama and at MSU
Have wins over Arky and Notre Dame and Florida
2 Quad 1 shots this week..Bama and at MSU
Have wins over Arky and Notre Dame and Florida
#70 Towson wins at James Madison by 40, they should jump to around 60 give or take a couple in the NET
TCU all but punches their ticket with a win over Texas Tech
Rutgers in serious trouble as loss total mounts...we shall see tomorrow morning but its 50/50 if they stay in bracket
Rutgers in serious trouble as loss total mounts...we shall see tomorrow morning but its 50/50 if they stay in bracket
Nobody but ourselves to blame. Ultimately, you can’t lose 3 straight there
Remember Rutgers still has 7 wins over projected teams in the field
Yes just joined and accepted
You deserve it. You put a lot of time in and get it right. Like to see you parlay this in to more recognition and maybe make some coin off of it one day.
Jerry Palm successor. Can do CBS weather too
No. Move him to traffic. No one needs that because of Waze
Bacatology | bac2therac | Substack
ncaa tournament and bubble analysis. Click to read Bacatology, by bac2therac, a Substack publication. Launched 2 years ago.
bac2therac.substack.com
Nice.
Bacatology | bac2therac | Substack
ncaa tournament and bubble analysis. Click to read Bacatology, by bac2therac, a Substack publication. Launched 2 years ago.
Nice.
Spreading this around to all of my college bball junky friends
Bacatology | bac2therac | Substack
ncaa tournament and bubble analysis. Click to read Bacatology, by bac2therac, a Substack publication. Launched 2 years ago.
Nice.
thank you...im Baca on the matrix
heartbreaking loss for Oregon at home....big shots by both teams late, teams making 3s and USC denying Oregon 2x in the final seconds
Can't believe the Geo lookalike missed that shot so badly at the end but I'll take it
haha I always think that too
Oregon still has shot to play their way in...sweep the Washington schools on the road and beat AZ in the Pac 12 semis
Just catching up on this....wow Virginia is pretty much done, revisit if they reach the ACC finals
Bracketville dave..Rutgers hanging on...for now
Let’s close with Rutgers. Riding high after four consecutive victories against tournament teams, the Scarlet Knights have dropped three straight – leaving them in a very tenuous position with two weeks to play. None of the metrics care for RU – despite seven wins against tournament-projected teams. The NCAA’s NET evaluation tool ranks them 84th this morning. A composite ranking of all those on the NCAA’s team sheets is 65.8 (below the the typical average for at-large teams). The Scarlet Knights’ profile also includes seven losses to teams outside the projected field. Then there’s the unspoken albatross – a non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) that ranks above 300 in both the NET and the former RPI. Typically, that is a dangerous scenario for bubble teams. Rutgers closes with a trip to Indiana and a home date with Penn State. While the current iteration of Rutgers basketball looks NCAA-worthy (to the eye test), to feel safe two weeks from now, it would be advisable for the Scarlet Knights to sweep their remaining conference dates and win at least one at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.
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bracketville.wordpress.com
Let’s close with Rutgers. Riding high after four consecutive victories against tournament teams, the Scarlet Knights have dropped three straight – leaving them in a very tenuous position with two weeks to play. None of the metrics care for RU – despite seven wins against tournament-projected teams. The NCAA’s NET evaluation tool ranks them 84th this morning. A composite ranking of all those on the NCAA’s team sheets is 65.8 (below the the typical average for at-large teams). The Scarlet Knights’ profile also includes seven losses to teams outside the projected field. Then there’s the unspoken albatross – a non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) that ranks above 300 in both the NET and the former RPI. Typically, that is a dangerous scenario for bubble teams. Rutgers closes with a trip to Indiana and a home date with Penn State. While the current iteration of Rutgers basketball looks NCAA-worthy (to the eye test), to feel safe two weeks from now, it would be advisable for the Scarlet Knights to sweep their remaining conference dates and win at least one at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.
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Seed List
Below are two tables that display the current Seed List (at the time of publication) – a tool used for my bracket projects and by the actual Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket…
bracketville.wordpress.com
Morning update.....Northern Iowa is now the AQ from the Missouri Valley
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
LAST FOUR IN
FIRST FOUR OUT
NEXT FOUR OUT
Rutgers has tumbled to the last four in line. RU will need to win their next two to feel safe. The Indiana-RU matchup looks to be a win and you are in for now, lose and you are out.
9 SEEDS
- XAVIER
- TCU
- NOTRE DAME
- WYOMING
10 SEEDS
- CREIGHTON
- MICHIGAN
- MIAMI
- DAVIDSON*
- WAKE FOREST
- SAN FRANCISCO
- INDIANA
- NORTH CAROLINA/BYU
- NORTH TEXAS*
- IONA*
- SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
- RUTGERS/SMU
LAST FOUR IN
- SMU
- RUTGERS
- BYU
- NORTH CAROLINA
FIRST FOUR OUT
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- OREGON
- MEMPHIS
- LOYOLA CHICAGO
NEXT FOUR OUT
- VCU
- FLORIDA
- SAINT BONAVENTURE
- VIRGINIA TECH
Rutgers has tumbled to the last four in line. RU will need to win their next two to feel safe. The Indiana-RU matchup looks to be a win and you are in for now, lose and you are out.
Totally see it that way….and i really think we need to win The next two and the big ten Thursday game to be safe with 19 wins
18 wins …don’t think it’s enough
Indiana Q4 8-0 +183
Rutgers Q4 6-1 +103
Lafayette L by 2
Indiana Q3 4-0 +47 (vs Rutgers ??-??)
W vs Md, W vs Minn, W vs PSU, W @ Neb
Rutgers Q3 2-2 +2 (vs PSU ??-??)
L vs Md, W vs Clemson, W @ Neb, L @ UMass L by 2
There are no Q3s or Q4s in seeds 7-12. None. Doesn't exist. On a neutral court only 30-100, finding the best teams. That is the determining factor.
Indiana Q1 3-6, @ Wisc L by 5, Vs Wisc L by 5, Vs OSU W by 16, vs Purdue W by 3, @ Iowa L by 9, Vs Ill L by 17, @ MSU L by 15, @.OSU L by 5, (@ Purdue ??-??), Neutral Notre Dame W by 8
Rutgers Q1 5-5, @ Wisc W by 8, vs Wisc L by 5, vs OSU W by 2, vs Purdue W by 2, vs Iowa W by 2, vs Ill W by 11, @ Illinois L by 35, @ Seton Hall L by 14, (@ Purdue L by 12), @ Michigan L by 9, (@ Indiana ??-??)
Indiana Q2 2-4, vs Michigan L by 18, @ NW L by 8, @ Md W by 13, @ PSU L by 2, vs St.John's W by 2, @ Syracuse L by 2, (@ Minn ??-??)
Rutgers Q2 3-4, vs Michigan W by 8, @ NW L by 1, @ Md W by 11, @ PSU L by 17, vs MSU W by 21, vs @ Depaul L by 3, (@ Minn L by 3)
I see Indiana 5-10 vs those teams, Rutgers 8-9 vs those teams
Is a home loss to Maryland or buzzer beater losses @ UMass and Lafayette with an NCAA Tournament team target on our back, going to outweigh 4-3 vs the double bye teams over Indiana's 2-4, Purdue left(3-4 or 2-5).
Wednesday will see who will still be in the discussion and who won't be. We will know how many wins we need when all the regular season is done and conference tournaments are set in a week what that 36th at large resume looks like and how many wins we need in the B1G tournament.
Rutgers Q4 6-1 +103
Lafayette L by 2
Indiana Q3 4-0 +47 (vs Rutgers ??-??)
W vs Md, W vs Minn, W vs PSU, W @ Neb
Rutgers Q3 2-2 +2 (vs PSU ??-??)
L vs Md, W vs Clemson, W @ Neb, L @ UMass L by 2
There are no Q3s or Q4s in seeds 7-12. None. Doesn't exist. On a neutral court only 30-100, finding the best teams. That is the determining factor.
Indiana Q1 3-6, @ Wisc L by 5, Vs Wisc L by 5, Vs OSU W by 16, vs Purdue W by 3, @ Iowa L by 9, Vs Ill L by 17, @ MSU L by 15, @.OSU L by 5, (@ Purdue ??-??), Neutral Notre Dame W by 8
Rutgers Q1 5-5, @ Wisc W by 8, vs Wisc L by 5, vs OSU W by 2, vs Purdue W by 2, vs Iowa W by 2, vs Ill W by 11, @ Illinois L by 35, @ Seton Hall L by 14, (@ Purdue L by 12), @ Michigan L by 9, (@ Indiana ??-??)
Indiana Q2 2-4, vs Michigan L by 18, @ NW L by 8, @ Md W by 13, @ PSU L by 2, vs St.John's W by 2, @ Syracuse L by 2, (@ Minn ??-??)
Rutgers Q2 3-4, vs Michigan W by 8, @ NW L by 1, @ Md W by 11, @ PSU L by 17, vs MSU W by 21, vs @ Depaul L by 3, (@ Minn L by 3)
I see Indiana 5-10 vs those teams, Rutgers 8-9 vs those teams
Is a home loss to Maryland or buzzer beater losses @ UMass and Lafayette with an NCAA Tournament team target on our back, going to outweigh 4-3 vs the double bye teams over Indiana's 2-4, Purdue left(3-4 or 2-5).
Wednesday will see who will still be in the discussion and who won't be. We will know how many wins we need when all the regular season is done and conference tournaments are set in a week what that 36th at large resume looks like and how many wins we need in the B1G tournament.
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18 wins will depend on bubble strength. I'd say something like 65/35 we get in with 18 as of now
everyone about the 9 seed line is a lock
There are 14 spots open and 27 schools competing.
