BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21

bac2therac

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Watch out for 16-11 Texas A&M on the fringes

2 Quad 1 shots this week..Bama and at MSU

Have wins over Arky and Notre Dame and Florida
 

bitnez

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How is Xavier projected as an 8/9? They have only 2 notable wins all year (Ohio St and UConn) and both games were at home. They also have a loss to DePaul, and just finished up a really bad February
 
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bac2therac

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How is Xavier projected as an 8/9? They have only 2 notable wins all year (Ohio St and UConn) and both games were at home. They also have a loss to DePaul, and just finished up a really bad February

Also Creighton 2x and Marquette

Good resume
 

RU23

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Switching over to RU game but UVA is in a close one with FSU like 15 seconds left. Even if they hang on they still need to do some damage in the ACC Tournament I would think, maybe even get to the final (maybe not I’m no expert)
 

bac2therac

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TCU all but punches their ticket with a win over Texas Tech

Rutgers in serious trouble as loss total mounts...we shall see tomorrow morning but its 50/50 if they stay in bracket
 

fatsam98

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Loyola Chicago lost in OT at Northern Iowa. Really hurts their at large chances
 

bac2therac

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FMkQRx8XEAMpB8r
 

bac2therac

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Bracketville dave..Rutgers hanging on...for now

Let’s close with Rutgers. Riding high after four consecutive victories against tournament teams, the Scarlet Knights have dropped three straight – leaving them in a very tenuous position with two weeks to play. None of the metrics care for RU – despite seven wins against tournament-projected teams. The NCAA’s NET evaluation tool ranks them 84th this morning. A composite ranking of all those on the NCAA’s team sheets is 65.8 (below the the typical average for at-large teams). The Scarlet Knights’ profile also includes seven losses to teams outside the projected field. Then there’s the unspoken albatross – a non-conference strength of schedule (NC SOS) that ranks above 300 in both the NET and the former RPI. Typically, that is a dangerous scenario for bubble teams. Rutgers closes with a trip to Indiana and a home date with Penn State. While the current iteration of Rutgers basketball looks NCAA-worthy (to the eye test), to feel safe two weeks from now, it would be advisable for the Scarlet Knights to sweep their remaining conference dates and win at least one at the Big Ten tournament in Indianapolis.

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friar10

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Think what is helping Rutgers right now is a lot of other teams are also playing their way out. Probably need a three game winning streak now. Indiana will be a real tough game.
 
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bac2therac

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Morning update.....Northern Iowa is now the AQ from the Missouri Valley

9 SEEDS
  • XAVIER
  • TCU
  • NOTRE DAME
  • WYOMING

10 SEEDS
  • CREIGHTON
  • MICHIGAN
  • MIAMI
  • DAVIDSON*
11 SEEDS
  • WAKE FOREST
  • SAN FRANCISCO
  • INDIANA
  • NORTH CAROLINA/BYU
12 SEEDS
  • NORTH TEXAS*
  • IONA*
  • SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
  • RUTGERS/SMU

LAST FOUR IN
  • SMU
  • RUTGERS
  • BYU
  • NORTH CAROLINA

FIRST FOUR OUT
  • SAN DIEGO STATE
  • OREGON
  • MEMPHIS
  • LOYOLA CHICAGO

NEXT FOUR OUT
  • VCU
  • FLORIDA
  • SAINT BONAVENTURE
  • VIRGINIA TECH

Rutgers has tumbled to the last four in line. RU will need to win their next two to feel safe. The Indiana-RU matchup looks to be a win and you are in for now, lose and you are out.
 

Scarlet Shack

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Morning update.....Northern Iowa is now the AQ from the Missouri Valley

9 SEEDS
  • XAVIER
  • TCU
  • NOTRE DAME
  • WYOMING

10 SEEDS
  • CREIGHTON
  • MICHIGAN
  • MIAMI
  • DAVIDSON*
11 SEEDS
  • WAKE FOREST
  • SAN FRANCISCO
  • INDIANA
  • NORTH CAROLINA/BYU
12 SEEDS
  • NORTH TEXAS*
  • IONA*
  • SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
  • RUTGERS/SMU

LAST FOUR IN
  • SMU
  • RUTGERS
  • BYU
  • NORTH CAROLINA

FIRST FOUR OUT
  • SAN DIEGO STATE
  • OREGON
  • MEMPHIS
  • LOYOLA CHICAGO

NEXT FOUR OUT
  • VCU
  • FLORIDA
  • SAINT BONAVENTURE
  • VIRGINIA TECH

Rutgers has tumbled to the last four in line. RU will need to win their next two to feel safe. The Indiana-RU matchup looks to be a win and you are in for now, lose and you are out.

Totally see it that way….and i really think we need to win The next two and the big ten Thursday game to be safe with 19 wins

18 wins …don’t think it’s enough
 
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Scarlet Blind

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Indiana Q4 8-0 +183
Rutgers Q4 6-1 +103
Lafayette L by 2

Indiana Q3 4-0 +47 (vs Rutgers ??-??)
W vs Md, W vs Minn, W vs PSU, W @ Neb
Rutgers Q3 2-2 +2 (vs PSU ??-??)
L vs Md, W vs Clemson, W @ Neb, L @ UMass L by 2

There are no Q3s or Q4s in seeds 7-12. None. Doesn't exist. On a neutral court only 30-100, finding the best teams. That is the determining factor.

Indiana Q1 3-6, @ Wisc L by 5, Vs Wisc L by 5, Vs OSU W by 16, vs Purdue W by 3, @ Iowa L by 9, Vs Ill L by 17, @ MSU L by 15, @.OSU L by 5, (@ Purdue ??-??), Neutral Notre Dame W by 8
Rutgers Q1 5-5, @ Wisc W by 8, vs Wisc L by 5, vs OSU W by 2, vs Purdue W by 2, vs Iowa W by 2, vs Ill W by 11, @ Illinois L by 35, @ Seton Hall L by 14, (@ Purdue L by 12), @ Michigan L by 9, (@ Indiana ??-??)

Indiana Q2 2-4, vs Michigan L by 18, @ NW L by 8, @ Md W by 13, @ PSU L by 2, vs St.John's W by 2, @ Syracuse L by 2, (@ Minn ??-??)
Rutgers Q2 3-4, vs Michigan W by 8, @ NW L by 1, @ Md W by 11, @ PSU L by 17, vs MSU W by 21, vs @ Depaul L by 3, (@ Minn L by 3)

I see Indiana 5-10 vs those teams, Rutgers 8-9 vs those teams
Is a home loss to Maryland or buzzer beater losses @ UMass and Lafayette with an NCAA Tournament team target on our back, going to outweigh 4-3 vs the double bye teams over Indiana's 2-4, Purdue left(3-4 or 2-5).

Wednesday will see who will still be in the discussion and who won't be. We will know how many wins we need when all the regular season is done and conference tournaments are set in a week what that 36th at large resume looks like and how many wins we need in the B1G tournament.
 
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gregkoko

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Totally see it that way….and i really think we need to win The next two and the big ten Thursday game to be safe with 19 wins

18 wins …don’t think it’s enough

18 wins will depend on bubble strength. I'd say something like 65/35 we get in with 18 as of now