BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21

[RocktheRac]

RU wins 1 out of next 3 with a win in B1G Tournament and they are in. NET will be mid 80's which will get them in. The mid major leading teams won't move too much in the NET as they will win the few games left.. The bigger conferences will fluctuate as they all beat each other up.

 

[bac2therac]

RU wins 1 out of next 3 with a win in B1G Tournament and they are in. NET will be mid 80's which will get them in. The mid major leading teams won't move too much in the NET as they will win the few games left.. The bigger conferences will fluctuate as they all beat each other up.

I think that is 30/70.....18-14 you dont want that

 

[Scarlet Blind]

The P6 is in full fix the NET for resumes mode, H 1-30, R 1-75, H 31-75, R 76-135, H 76-160

 

[fatsam98]

Doesn't have bracket implications to us but this Providence Xavier game is insane. About to go to 3OT

 

[Groz]

Doesn't have bracket implications to us but this Providence Xavier game is insane. About to go to 3OT

I can't believe that Providence didn't foul while Scruggs was dribbling near half court with like 2 seconds left in overtime #2 up 3.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[fatsam98]

After they fouled up 3 with 8 seconds to go

 

[bac2therac]

will have to do a full rundown tomorrow morning of the numbers but its likely that RU at least in my bracket will still be above the first four games, probably an 11 seed. I just cannot put them below Indiana at this point comparing the resumes

Remember as crushing as the loss was to fans, for the resume its a Quad 1 loss and RU had some separation from the rest of the bubble coming into the game..now it just puts RU back in the last 6 grouping. And Michigan could become a Q1 win at the RAC...we shall see

curious about the NET, I dont think efficiency stuff was on our side, I worry if the NET drops to 85 or worse

 

[Groz]

After they fouled up 3 with 8 seconds to go

Very true.

Best of Luck,
Groz

 

[bac2therac]

The P6 is in full fix the NET for resumes mode, H 1-30, R 1-75, H 31-75, R 76-135, H 76-160

the net really should be

Quad 1: 1-50 home, 1-75 road

Quad 2: 51-100 home, 76-150 road

Quad 3: 101-200 home, 151-225 road

Quad 4; 201- beyond, 226-beyond road

 

[goru7]

Well on the plus side...

Virginia lose to Duke
Wake lose to Clemson
TCU losing at Texas

Our Michigan home win might be Quad 1 now?

Doubtful we were Quad3

 

[bac2therac]

they will inch closer but might need another win to get into quad 1

 

[kcg88]

Wisconsin tied late with Minnesota. It's hard to win on the road in the Big Ten.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

It's weird, South Carolina has a better shot of getting in than Miss St and Texas A&M.

#94 S.Carolina(15-10) 2-6 3-2 5-2 5-0
Miss St, @ 22 Bama, 149 Mizz, @ 10 Auburn, win 3 of 4
#71 Texas A&M(16-11) 1-7 2-2 5-2 8-0
@ 106 Ole Miss, @ 22 Bama, Vs Miss St, must win 3 of 3
#48 Miss St(16-11) 2-8 1-1 7-2 6-0 R 1-7
@ S.Carolina, 79 Vandy, 10 Auburn, @ Texas A&M, must win Auburn, 2 of 3

#41 Va. Tech(16-11) 0-5 5-4 5-2 6-0
@ 151 G.Tech, @ 60 Mia, 124 L'ville, @ 95 Clemson
Win all 4, 1-5, 6-4, 7-2 6-0, is very 11 seed, play-in worthy resume.

#57 ND, #60 Miami, and #82 Virginia have better resumes

#118 ArizSt(10-16) SOR 110 and #134 Wash(13-12) SOR 118 have better resumes than #48 Wash St.(14-12) SOR 119

A10 Davidson leads the auto, VCU is 2nd, a 3rd could come from Dayton or St. Bonaventure, not both.

NET system needs tinkering in the offseason.

South Carolina won Miss St
VA Tech wins close, keeps GTech above 160.
ND won, Virginia loses closes, keeps Duke NET strong, Virginia up
Needed BC higher than 160, Wake could drop one to Clemson.
Creighton wins @ St John, better for Big East Creighton better resume.
Davidson, VCU, Dayton all win
Texas and Iowa St keeps WVU and TCU in their spots with close wins.
Providence needed to get back higher than 30, beat Xavier.

It's amazing how many results happened the way it best benefits each conference tonight. Washington, NET 134, needs separation from 135, will beat or stay close to 47 Wash St., poor resume.

 

[bac2therac]

TCU really could play their way out soon.

Wyoming resume isnt all that impressive, watch this going forward. They have a game vs San Diego State they really need to win

Wake is no sure thing..that loss to Clemson isnt a good one.

I think Notre Dame, Seton Hall, and Colorado State basically took steps to make them just about virtual locks now and Creighton has significantly improved their position the last two games

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

will have to do a full rundown tomorrow morning of the numbers but its likely that RU at least in my bracket will still be above the first four games, probably an 11 seed. I just cannot put them below Indiana at this point comparing the resumes

Remember as crushing as the loss was to fans, for the resume its a Quad 1 loss and RU had some separation from the rest of the bubble coming into the game..now it just puts RU back in the last 6 grouping. And Michigan could become a Q1 win at the RAC...we shall see

curious about the NET, I dont think efficiency stuff was on our side, I worry if the NET drops to 85 or worse

Pike certainly helped it by giving up with a minute left.

 

[fluoxetine]

Pike certainly helped it by giving up with a minute left.

Proof of how stupid the NET is: I actually cared whether that three the Michigan guy threw up with 6 seconds left went in or not

 

[bac2therac]

yes good recognition, it would have been nice to hit a 3 on the previous possession

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What if Longwood wins out and loses in final of the Big South? They only have 1 Q1 loss and are undefeated in Quad 2.

 

[RUfanSinceAnderson]

What if Longwood wins out and loses in final of the Big South? They only have 1 Q1 loss and are undefeated in Quad 2.

Are you a fan of longwood?

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Are you a fan of longwood?

definitely not

 

[Scangg]

Andy Katz still driving the bus claiming we need only 1 more win

 

[bac2therac]

Andy Katz still driving the bus claiming we need only 1 more win

I disagree with him

 

[colbert17]

I disagree with him

2?
One plus one in the tournament or two regular season?

 

[Scarlet Blind]

They guesstimate the payout for each team/each game played in March Madness 2022 in the range of $350K-$400k per this year.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Tell me again how dumb the NET.
Loyola Illinois beats #315 Evansville(5-21, now #321, 5-22) 82 - 31 (+51)
They jump from #37 to #29 to give the MVC a chance of 2 teams, won't be surprised if Loyola loses in the MVC finals.

Tell me again why point differential isn't playing a big part in determining the NET this year. This is worse than the RPI and pro sports tanking at the end of the season to get a better draft pick combined.

Is 33 Michigan's next three games at home play out, win against 14 Illinois and 18 Iowa but lose @ home to 35 Mich St, so both can get into the top 30?

 

[Duff366]

Ridiculous

 

[fluoxetine]

Tell me again why point differential isn't playing a big part in determining the NET this year.

Uh, no one has ever tried to tell you this, except to explain that UNADJUSTED point differential is not used.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Uh, no one has ever tried to tell you this, except to explain that UNADJUSTED point differential is not used.

Sorry, just frustrated in the direction college sports is headed, and how people don't see the broader picture of what's going on, not that I'm complaining that we are finally accepted in to it thanks to the coach we have.

 

[bac2therac]

San Francisco moved up to 2 spots to 25 because a team they lost to Loyola won by 51

Mind you Providence at 23-3 on the verge of the Big East title is 28

 

[fluoxetine]

Sorry, just frustrated in the direction college sports is headed, and how people don't see the broader picture of what's going on, not that I'm complaining that we are finally accepted in to it thanks to the coach we have.

This is the first year of the new NET that is so completely dominated by efficiency. I think it's fairly likely the NCAA realizes their mistake.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

This is the first year of the new NET that is so completely dominated by efficiency. I think it's fairly likely the NCAA realizes their mistake.

This 100000000%

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

They actually need to come out ASAP and say it before things get ugly.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

This is the first year of the new NET that is so completely dominated by efficiency. I think it's fairly likely the NCAA realizes their mistake.

I think plenty of teams took notice of it last.year, and scheduled the way they scheduled accordingly. Some teams just did a better job of implementing and executing the plan better than others did in their non conference schedule.

 

[bac2therac]

Dayton won by alot against a dreg and moved up 4 from 51 to 47

 

[Scarlet Shack]

the net really should be

Quad 1: 1-50 home, 1-75 road

Quad 2: 51-100 home, 76-150 road

Quad 3: 101-200 home, 151-225 road

Quad 4; 201- beyond, 226-beyond road

Yes !!!

This is what I would love to see

Quad 1*. 1-15 at home ; 1-25 road
Quad 2: 16-50 at home; 26-75 road
Quad 3: 51-100 at home; 76-150 road
Quad 4: 101-200 at home; 151-250 road
Quad 5. 201-ans beyond home: 250 and beyond two

To me…the way it’s set up , there are quad one win and then there are quad one wins…

Beating Purdue is not the same as beating Iowa at the RAC, just as beating Wisconsin on the road isn’t the same as beating Michigan on the road ….

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

San Francisco moved up to 2 spots to 25 because a team they lost to Loyola won by 51

Mind you Providence at 23-3 on the verge of the Big East title is 28

So what’s more painfully flawed - that or RU and PSU basically having the same NET (83 and 85)?

To me the nonexistent gap between RU and PSU stands tall as the poster child of a truly flawed system. How can there be no difference between an 11-13 team and a 16-11 team from the same conference? You’d say - it would have to be OOC performance, right? So you browse PSU’s non-conference schedule expecting there must be a big win on there somewhere. Only - there’s not - unless you count beating Wagner at home to be signature. I don’t see it as any better than beating Clemson. What you do find on PSU’s non-conference slate is an 81-56 blow out loss at the hands of drum roll please… yup - UMass!

 

[Scarlet Blind]

There is no perfect system that a math and analytics guys and the money conferences can't figure out a way to take advantage of the system to their benefit. There are 358 teams, 68 spots, 32 conferences AQ, 36 at larges.

1-30, 1-50, 1-75
Q1 1-32 1-48 1-64
Q1 1-34 1-51 1-68
Q1 1-36 1-54 1-72
Q1 10% Q2 20% Q3 35% Q4 50%

The end of the season will play out the same way given the parameters of what's at stake, it just becomes a tighter window for teams.

 

[Scarlet Blind]

San Francisco moved up to 2 spots to 25 because a team they lost to Loyola won by 51

Mind you Providence at 23-3 on the verge of the Big East title is 28

Providence has lost 2 games by a total of 50 points and doesn't win many games by more than 10-15 points.

I think Colgate 14-1 was the example last year.
85.2 pts for (2nd out of 358)
69.6 pts against (157th) +15.8 Margin of Victory 4th
9th in the NET

 

[fatsam98]

Loyola moving up 8 spots for beating Evansville by 50 compared to Michigan moving up 1 spot for beating us by 10 (and then moving back down 1 spot for Loyola jumping them) is probably the most obvious instance I've seen so far of how flawed the NET is.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Loyola moving up 8 spots for beating Evansville by 50 compared to Michigan moving up 1 spot for beating us by 10 (and then moving back down 1 spot for Loyola jumping them) is probably the most obvious instance I've seen so far of how flawed the NET is.

Yes - very bad. It’s actually poor sportsmanship for style points to play the role they are playing in the metrics. Michigan really shouldn’t have dribbled it out at the end and should’ve tried for double digits. Stupid