Just looking top to bottom based on ratings. Our averages are thrown off by all the 300s
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Our schedule is even rated slightly higher by Kenpom who is doing a simple average.
Wednesday Bubble Chaos Rooting Guide
Tuesday recap: We actually got 4 out of 6, including 3 of the 4 I thought were most important. The Big 12 has played out nicely with West Virginia (14-13), Kansas State (14-13), and Oklahoma (14-14) all dropping off the pace. They're not completely dead but it's looking like a 6 bid league after it seemed like they might get 7 or 8 earlier in the season. So that opens up an extra bubble spot for now. San Diego State won't be penalized for losing at Boise State but they remain in the danger zone. Let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling tonight.
Obviously the most important game is Rutgers vs. Michigan. If Rutgers wins, I don't care what else happens.
(6:30) Creighton at St. John's (62%) - Creighton got a much-needed win over Marquette to move up off the Last 4 In and onto the 11 line. A Q1 road loss (as this would be) wouldn't knock them out of the field, but their final three games are against Providence, UConn, and Seton Hall. So they'd really like to bank this win before that stretch. Despite Jon Rothstein trying to speak it into existence, St. John's is nowhere close to the bubble with a 3-10 Q1/Q2 record AND a Q4 loss. So despite their NET of 68 (which... eyeroll) they are not a team we need to worry about.
(6:30) Mississippi State at South Carolina (44%) - The Bulldogs took care of business in a weekend series with Missouri to, I suppose, remain faintly in the picture. If they can go 3-1 the rest of the way (losing to Auburn, beating SCar, Vandy, and TAMU) then they can get to 20 wins in the SEC tournament and maybe ride the coattails of a strong conference. If they lose this then they need to be perfect the rest of the way to even have a dream.
(7:00) TCU at Texas (78%) - Is it time to talk about a potential five-bid Big 12? TCU can go from 17-8 to 17-8 in a flash with games against Texas, Texas Tech, and two against Kansas coming up. Right now, TCU only has two wins over teams in the field: Iowa State and LSU. If they can win one of the next four they're probably fine, but if they do find themselves at 17-12 then their resume becomes very easy to poke holes in.
(7:00) Duke (69%) at Virginia - Yup, we've got to root for the Blue Devils. The weakening bubble gives life to teams like Virginia that seemed all but dead last week. The Cavaliers are looking for the season sweep of Duke to go along with a sweep of Miami (currently projected in) and a win over Providence. That's a better set of wins than, for instance, Notre Dame, who is still living off the Kentucky win alone. Given how far back Virginia is, they need this one. If they lose here they need to win their last two (FSU and Louisville, which won't help them) and make an ACC tournament run.
(7:00) Syracuse (44%) at Notre Dame - Yup, we've got to root for the Orange. Notre Dame is on the 10 line right now but they have only three wins over teams in the field and two of them (Miami and UNC) are weak. They have a very easy schedule but the downside of that is wins don't really help them at all and losses hurt them a lot. They play Cuse, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Pitt, three of those at home. They can a take a loss and still make it in, but perhaps not two.
(7:00) Wake Forest at Clemson (45%) - The Demon Deacons are feeling pretty safe after a win over fellow bubble team Notre Dame on the weekend. They have three games left and can stomach at least one more loss, so this one isn't as make-or-break like Virginia above. If they drop this one then they better step on a Q3 landmine at home (Louisville and NC State).
(7:00) George Mason (27%) at VCU - Alright, alright, it's time to start seriously including the A-10 in these rundowns. They've been a big beneficiary of the Big 12 and the bubble weakening, and now two bids for this league is in play. Perhaps even likely. (Though they're not getting 3 or more, that's nonsense) VCU is best-positioned right now, but they have to finish the season with St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis. It seems like every night the VCUs and Daytons are playing crap teams like George Mason and St. Joe's but at some point they will play games against each other and start cannibalizing themselves to some extent.
(7:00) Davidson at Duquesne (16%) - You want to blow a hole in the idea of a two-bid A-10? This is how you do it. Davidson has an at-large resume so long as they don't lose a dumb Q4 game like this.
(7:00) UMass (11%) at Dayton - This would also suffice.
(8:00) Tulsa (14%) at SMU - SMU has a big game at Houston on Sunday. Obviously they can't afford to get caught looking ahead. Of note, SMU is undefeated at home this season.
(8:00) Evansville (3%) at Loyola Chicago - lol. This is KenPom's least interesting game of the night.
EXPECTED WINS: 3.44 (out of 10 games)
Obviously it'd be great if the longshots against SMU and Loyola came in. Realistically, we'd love the ACC coming through with losses for Virginia, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest. Creighton taking a loss would also be great. Those are the four most important games of the night IMO. TCU losing would be nice too. Mississippi State is still on the outside looking in with a win and the A-10 games aren't that important yet.
Keep your eye on...
Xavier has lost 4 of 5 and is playing at Providence. The Musketeers have a ways to go before falling to the bubble but they're not locked in just yet.
Wyoming and Colorado State are both safely in but each took dumb road losses lately (UNLV and New Mexico). The winner of this is an ironclad lock. The loser is still safe but will at least need to keep their head up. Colorado State is seeded higher right now, but they're home so the loss would be would more damaging for them. Take your pick.
Houston is at Tulane. They're a heavy favorite (78%) but worth monitoring with SMU coming to town on Sunday.
West Virginia is at Iowa State. As I've mentioned, the Mountaineers are just about cooked. There is no at large path for them if they lose this game. Not important enough to include in the calculation above.
Tuesday recap: We actually got 4 out of 6, including 3 of the 4 I thought were most important. The Big 12 has played out nicely with West Virginia (14-13), Kansas State (14-13), and Oklahoma (14-14) all dropping off the pace. They're not completely dead but it's looking like a 6 bid league after it seemed like they might get 7 or 8 earlier in the season. So that opens up an extra bubble spot for now. San Diego State won't be penalized for losing at Boise State but they remain in the danger zone. Let's see if we can keep the momentum rolling tonight.
Obviously the most important game is Rutgers vs. Michigan. If Rutgers wins, I don't care what else happens.
(6:30) Creighton at St. John's (62%) - Creighton got a much-needed win over Marquette to move up off the Last 4 In and onto the 11 line. A Q1 road loss (as this would be) wouldn't knock them out of the field, but their final three games are against Providence, UConn, and Seton Hall. So they'd really like to bank this win before that stretch. Despite Jon Rothstein trying to speak it into existence, St. John's is nowhere close to the bubble with a 3-10 Q1/Q2 record AND a Q4 loss. So despite their NET of 68 (which... eyeroll) they are not a team we need to worry about.
(6:30) Mississippi State at South Carolina (44%) - The Bulldogs took care of business in a weekend series with Missouri to, I suppose, remain faintly in the picture. If they can go 3-1 the rest of the way (losing to Auburn, beating SCar, Vandy, and TAMU) then they can get to 20 wins in the SEC tournament and maybe ride the coattails of a strong conference. If they lose this then they need to be perfect the rest of the way to even have a dream.
(7:00) TCU at Texas (78%) - Is it time to talk about a potential five-bid Big 12? TCU can go from 17-8 to 17-8 in a flash with games against Texas, Texas Tech, and two against Kansas coming up. Right now, TCU only has two wins over teams in the field: Iowa State and LSU. If they can win one of the next four they're probably fine, but if they do find themselves at 17-12 then their resume becomes very easy to poke holes in.
(7:00) Duke (69%) at Virginia - Yup, we've got to root for the Blue Devils. The weakening bubble gives life to teams like Virginia that seemed all but dead last week. The Cavaliers are looking for the season sweep of Duke to go along with a sweep of Miami (currently projected in) and a win over Providence. That's a better set of wins than, for instance, Notre Dame, who is still living off the Kentucky win alone. Given how far back Virginia is, they need this one. If they lose here they need to win their last two (FSU and Louisville, which won't help them) and make an ACC tournament run.
(7:00) Syracuse (44%) at Notre Dame - Yup, we've got to root for the Orange. Notre Dame is on the 10 line right now but they have only three wins over teams in the field and two of them (Miami and UNC) are weak. They have a very easy schedule but the downside of that is wins don't really help them at all and losses hurt them a lot. They play Cuse, Georgia Tech, Florida State, and Pitt, three of those at home. They can a take a loss and still make it in, but perhaps not two.
(7:00) Wake Forest at Clemson (45%) - The Demon Deacons are feeling pretty safe after a win over fellow bubble team Notre Dame on the weekend. They have three games left and can stomach at least one more loss, so this one isn't as make-or-break like Virginia above. If they drop this one then they better step on a Q3 landmine at home (Louisville and NC State).
(7:00) George Mason (27%) at VCU - Alright, alright, it's time to start seriously including the A-10 in these rundowns. They've been a big beneficiary of the Big 12 and the bubble weakening, and now two bids for this league is in play. Perhaps even likely. (Though they're not getting 3 or more, that's nonsense) VCU is best-positioned right now, but they have to finish the season with St. Bonaventure and Saint Louis. It seems like every night the VCUs and Daytons are playing crap teams like George Mason and St. Joe's but at some point they will play games against each other and start cannibalizing themselves to some extent.
(7:00) Davidson at Duquesne (16%) - You want to blow a hole in the idea of a two-bid A-10? This is how you do it. Davidson has an at-large resume so long as they don't lose a dumb Q4 game like this.
(7:00) UMass (11%) at Dayton - This would also suffice.
(8:00) Tulsa (14%) at SMU - SMU has a big game at Houston on Sunday. Obviously they can't afford to get caught looking ahead. Of note, SMU is undefeated at home this season.
(8:00) Evansville (3%) at Loyola Chicago - lol. This is KenPom's least interesting game of the night.
EXPECTED WINS: 3.44 (out of 10 games)
Obviously it'd be great if the longshots against SMU and Loyola came in. Realistically, we'd love the ACC coming through with losses for Virginia, Notre Dame, and Wake Forest. Creighton taking a loss would also be great. Those are the four most important games of the night IMO. TCU losing would be nice too. Mississippi State is still on the outside looking in with a win and the A-10 games aren't that important yet.
Keep your eye on...
Xavier has lost 4 of 5 and is playing at Providence. The Musketeers have a ways to go before falling to the bubble but they're not locked in just yet.
Wyoming and Colorado State are both safely in but each took dumb road losses lately (UNLV and New Mexico). The winner of this is an ironclad lock. The loser is still safe but will at least need to keep their head up. Colorado State is seeded higher right now, but they're home so the loss would be would more damaging for them. Take your pick.
Houston is at Tulane. They're a heavy favorite (78%) but worth monitoring with SMU coming to town on Sunday.
West Virginia is at Iowa State. As I've mentioned, the Mountaineers are just about cooked. There is no at large path for them if they lose this game. Not important enough to include in the calculation above.
You seem to be pretty focused on how team A would do with team B’s schedule as what should be the “end all” determinant in head to head at large consideration.
Let me ask you a question - would you also have Wagner ahead of RU right now if they didn’t get their auto bid? They are 19-3. 2 of their losses are the same as ours (@ Seton Hall and @ PSU). The 3rd loss was OT at home vs. Merrimack (note that they also beat them on the road - would we have done that back in November when we were stinking up the court? Would we have won at VCU back then?) Based on our early resume - it would be pretty hard to assume RU would be better than a 19-3 if we had played their schedule.
Wagner has beaten nobody and is projected to be a 14ish seed in most brackets by the way. Based on the way RU turned around the season, I don’t think you can look at things the way you are trying to analyze them.
It's weird, South Carolina has a better shot of getting in than Miss St and Texas A&M.
#94 S.Carolina(15-10) 2-6 3-2 5-2 5-0
Miss St, @ 22 Bama, 149 Mizz, @ 10 Auburn, win 3 of 4
#71 Texas A&M(16-11) 1-7 2-2 5-2 8-0
@ 106 Ole Miss, @ 22 Bama, Vs Miss St, must win 3 of 3
#48 Miss St(16-11) 2-8 1-1 7-2 6-0 R 1-7
@ S.Carolina, 79 Vandy, 10 Auburn, @ Texas A&M, must win Auburn, 2 of 3
#41 Va. Tech(16-11) 0-5 5-4 5-2 6-0
@ 151 G.Tech, @ 60 Mia, 124 L'ville, @ 95 Clemson
Win all 4, 1-5, 6-4, 7-2 6-0, is very 11 seed, play-in worthy resume.
#57 ND, #60 Miami, and #82 Virginia have better resumes
#118 ArizSt(10-16) SOR 110 and #134 Wash(13-12) SOR 118 have better resumes than #48 Wash St.(14-12) SOR 119
A10 Davidson leads the auto, VCU is 2nd, a 3rd could come from Dayton or St. Bonaventure, not both.
NET system needs tinkering in the offseason.
#94 S.Carolina(15-10) 2-6 3-2 5-2 5-0
Miss St, @ 22 Bama, 149 Mizz, @ 10 Auburn, win 3 of 4
#71 Texas A&M(16-11) 1-7 2-2 5-2 8-0
@ 106 Ole Miss, @ 22 Bama, Vs Miss St, must win 3 of 3
#48 Miss St(16-11) 2-8 1-1 7-2 6-0 R 1-7
@ S.Carolina, 79 Vandy, 10 Auburn, @ Texas A&M, must win Auburn, 2 of 3
#41 Va. Tech(16-11) 0-5 5-4 5-2 6-0
@ 151 G.Tech, @ 60 Mia, 124 L'ville, @ 95 Clemson
Win all 4, 1-5, 6-4, 7-2 6-0, is very 11 seed, play-in worthy resume.
#57 ND, #60 Miami, and #82 Virginia have better resumes
#118 ArizSt(10-16) SOR 110 and #134 Wash(13-12) SOR 118 have better resumes than #48 Wash St.(14-12) SOR 119
A10 Davidson leads the auto, VCU is 2nd, a 3rd could come from Dayton or St. Bonaventure, not both.
NET system needs tinkering in the offseason.
Last edited:
Agreed...that form of analysis doesn't work as well with that type of schedule....although we have no data that would say Wagner could finish above .500 with our record, let alone 16-10.
WAB is flawed because Wagner has a .2 WAB and we are -.3
We could win the B1G tournament and he might have us in Dayton.
Honestly, you could take Rutgers and say "how would Rutgers do with Rutgers' schedule" and you'd probably come up with a completely different theoretical result, too.
that's the point...they are 16-10. The Q1 wins show how good this team can be. We scheduled a lousy OOC and we performed really poorly in it.
If Denver goes in to Arrowhead and wins, but loses the next week at home to Las Vegas they are 1-1. No different if they won at home to LV and lost at KC.
Thankfully Jerry Palm isn't on the Selection Committee.
You also said that based on UNC’s resume it’s clear they would’ve won the road games we lost (sans Illinois and Purdue). They barely squeaked by the teams I listed outside of BC (and lost to Pitt at home). I’m not sure how that translates to automatic wins at Minny, NW, PSU, DePaul, etc. I think we played much harder true road games than they did overall and it’s not even close.
Unfortunately we didn’t have Geo when played the easiest of the bunch (UMass).
I also don’t think very much weight should be given to their wins over Elon, Brown, Loyola, UNC-Ash etc. being better than ours wins over Maine, CC, Lehigh, Merrimack. No major conference team should lose to any of these teams. We’re paying the price for the Lafayette loss in a ton of metrics - but home wins over teams in the 200s vs. 300s add negligible value in my opinion.
Right - but part of your pro UNC argument was that RU had more opportunities vs. top schools than UNC at home. If you applied the same logic - Wagner had no opportunities against good teams at home or even on a neutral floor. UNC got a chance to beat Duke at home and lost. They played 3 top teams on a neutral floor and lost to all of them.
I’m also sick of hearing how we’re 3-8 “away from home” rather than “on the road”. It’s not apples to apples to compare our true road record to other teams blended records away from home when we played -0- neutral games. Not the same damn metric.
UNC is perfect other than PITT in non Q1 games.
our 300s vs their 200s is no more than an extra .1-.15 wins in my book
Sure, but run us through the same schedule 3 times and you'll get 3 very different results. You can't predict "how would UNC have fared with Rutgers' schedule" any more than you can predict "how would Rutgers fare if they played the same schedule again".
You can only judge based on what actually happened. UNC has virtually no good wins and only one bad loss, and their only hope of having a win over a tournament team is @Duke (and if Michigan manages to make the cut). That's "safe" for them, for the most part, but they played fewer challenging games and lost most of the ones they did play.
If NC State sneaks up and bites them, they could be biting their fingernails on selection sunday.
I should change my stance and really say how many wins would the bubble team expect to win given RU's schedule. The bubble team doesn't have a name. It is the 44th best team from a net adjusted efficiency standpoint. That team is 16.3-9.7 according to bart.
I think the concept of taking everyone's schedule and assigning it an expected W-L is the purest way to pick a field.
Where that analysis runs in to a little trouble is with a Wagner type of schedule.
#44 in kenpom has an Adjusted EM on +14.21.
I don't care what RU's EM is. It is irrelevant. As we know it is relevant in NET calculations.
How many expect wins would a team with an adjusted EM of +14.21 fare with RU's schedule.
The bubble team would have 16.3 expected wins with RU's schedule. RU has 16
I don't care what RU's EM is. It is irrelevant. As we know it is relevant in NET calculations.
How many expect wins would a team with an adjusted EM of +14.21 fare with RU's schedule.
The bubble team would have 16.3 expected wins with RU's schedule. RU has 16
Rutgers remaining 4 games and bubble expected wins
at Michigan .29
Wisconsin .56
Indiana .28
PSU .75
Total 1.88
add on 16.3
18.18 regular season wins.
Add B10t and Rutgers needs 19 wins
at Michigan .29
Wisconsin .56
Indiana .28
PSU .75
Total 1.88
add on 16.3
18.18 regular season wins.
Add B10t and Rutgers needs 19 wins
Update after last night....
San Diego State's loss to Boise State bounces them out for now...even though no losses outside Q2 and all of them are in Q1 and their NET actually rose to 30, I cannot get over that 2-7 mark in Q1 and the quality wins they have are just St Mary's and Colorado St. Even though we have gone through the lack of beef on the UNC resume with Michigan being the only win of note, I am putting the Tar Heels into the field at this time
12 SEEDS
San Diego State's loss to Boise State bounces them out for now...even though no losses outside Q2 and all of them are in Q1 and their NET actually rose to 30, I cannot get over that 2-7 mark in Q1 and the quality wins they have are just St Mary's and Colorado St. Even though we have gone through the lack of beef on the UNC resume with Michigan being the only win of note, I am putting the Tar Heels into the field at this time
12 SEEDS
- INDIANA
- MEMPHIS
- BYU
- NORTH CAROLINA
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- SMU
- OREGON
- BELMONT
- FLORIDA
- VIRGINIA
- SAINT BONAVENTURE
- DAYTON
SMU’s 2 wins over Memphis make this interesting - I think they have the strongest case among your “out” group.
Oregon, meanwhile, has 3 Q1 and a Q2 opportunity remaining plus the conference tournament…plenty of time to bolster their resume and my hunch is they sneak in (hopefully over the UNC frauds)
BYU is agressively trying to schedule a non conference road game next week before the WCC tourney in order to help their resume,,,perhaps an A10 school
BArt's view of the conferences
B12 .8773 (meaning they would win 87.7% of the time against the average D1 team
B10 .8241
SEC .8116
BE .7840
ACC .7431
P12 .7380
AMER .7192
My takeways....
1. ACC is P12 bad
2, AMER is a lot closer to the ACC then the ACC is to B10
3. B12 head and shoulders above the rest
T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank
T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.
www.barttorvik.com
B10 .8241
SEC .8116
BE .7840
ACC .7431
P12 .7380
AMER .7192
My takeways....
1. ACC is P12 bad
2, AMER is a lot closer to the ACC then the ACC is to B10
3. B12 head and shoulders above the rest
Do you think the committee likes this, doesn't like this, or will treat it like any other game in the resume.
Memphis has the better overall profile even though SMU beat them head to head. Honestly I dont like either profile but the AAC will get two in for sure. Houston is way out of whack in the NET and in reality beating them should hold no greater weight than beating Iowa
Oregon needs to win its next two period, just getting one means they likely need to reach the Pac 12 finals,
its completely fine, its body of work and since BYU did have games lost to covid, they are well within their right....I would love to play BYU at the RAC next week
Houston is a NET bully. Takes Peter Kiss's candy and beats them by 67. NET loves that.
FWIW Houston only has the 16th best WAB at 4.0
FWIW Houston only has the 16th best WAB at 4.0
San Diego St(17-7) 66-53 UC-Riverside(+13), 73-56 G'Town(+17), 72-47 Long Beach St(+25), 79-49 Colorado St(+30), 80-55 UNLV(+25), 72-47 New Mexico(+25), 75-56 Utah St(+19), 61-44 Fresno St(+17), +171 in 8 wins, 7 losses(-60) plays a big part.
BYU men’s basketball trying ‘in earnest’ to add one extra game before regular season ends
The BYU men's basketball team would like to replace the game against Portland in January that was postponed, giving the Cougars one more opportunity to add to their tournament resume.
Pope said he has reached out to “about 20 different teams” to see when and where a game can occur. Some teams, he said, can play next Tuesday, while many can play Wednesday. In order to make the game a Quad 1 affair in the NCAA NET rankings, BYU would most likely need to play on the road.
If BYU wants in the tournament call Izzo. Tell him Keep the home gate, we will pay refs, we will play for travel, we will shake hands afterwards. We will play whenever you want as long as it is in Lansing
The challenge here is how "expected" is modeled. Rutgers would be "expected" to have a very different record with the same schedule based on pretty much any model you throw out there (what team loses at home to Lafayette and then beats Purdue at home and Wisconsin on the road?)... but reality and expectation frequently don't align.
That's a problem with using "expected W-L", in my mind. You have to go with what happened, not what's expected to happen based on season-long averages.
They went 16-10 with a record that the 44th best team would have an expected 16.3 wins.
It isn't what a specific team is expected to do. The 44th best NET team would have an expected 16.3 wins with the RU schedule. When RU played it's schedule in the games for the 2021-22 season they won 16 so far.
I am sure it is a longshot........look at Houston's remaining schedule PLUS AAC tournament. They still need 2 more wins. There are no gimmies.
That sounds nice until you realize there are only 4 Q2 games included in that “perfect” group and then actually look at them.
One is Michigan (home) - we have the same win. Next best is a 2 point win @ Clemson (right now NET says our win at Maryland is better than that one - and we also have a double digit home win vs. Clemson without Geo playing). Then they have a home win vs. V-Tech. We have a Q2 win vs. Michigan State, an actual tourney team. Finally, they have an OT win @ UofL (which could easily move to Q3). Outside the lone Q1 win at VTech - these are their signature wins.
if you really believe that then you have to be worried about how the committee views Rutgers
I am not doubting your analysis of RU's wins vs. UNCs. Turn it upside down and evaluate RUs and UNC losses.
