We would not have lost the UMass game if Geo had played. There’s your 17th win.
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21
- Thread starter bac2therac
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I think you are right. I am not sure Geo's season on paper would be enough to drill down and say RU had a major injury.
Geo's loss is more not Geo being out, but the lack of replacements on the bench.
We beat Purdue without Geo so it would be tough for the committee to make that case....especailly since we were terrible with Geo before he got hurt and the Rutgers turnaround happened before Geo came back
Going to write the committee and tell them Jalen Miller was out. We win that game (maybe) if Jalen was on Noah Fernandes. There were 10+ thinhgs that happened for us to have a shot of losing that game.
So is your argument that Rutgers should actually be the 44th best NET team, and not the 80th?
No. I think the NET should mean nothing to the NCAA selection. It should merely be a way to evaluate the strength of schedule.
Rutgers is probably the 80th best team in ability over the entire season because when evaluation of all of their 3,640 possessions (O and D) on a schedule adjusted basis they were 80th best. (This is assuming Net matches Bart and ken).
there is enough data where I am confident in concluding that our expected performance going forward is better than what the NET says. When looking at trailing 5 games there is a very tight fitting line showing upward profess over the past 15 games. All of this is irrelevant in NCAA discussion.
Here’s the deal - we have 2 more losses than them. One was the terrible loss to Lafayette. For the other, I’m really hoping the committee takes Geo’s absence into account for UMass because it’s not a game we would’ve lost with him available to play. But what it comes down to - is all in - is not having those 2 losses worth more than wins @Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois, Ohio State and Iowa (Let’s consider our home blow out win over Michigan State (tourney team) a wash with their road win at VTech). We have the same next best win as them - Michigan (home). We match their next best win after that too (@Maryland vs @ Clemson)
I put it this way because when you look at UNC’s 8 losses compared to our other 8 losses ours are probably better. Our Maryland loss is less bad than their Pitt loss. We were short handed when we played the Illinois and SHU games (and some guys playing with the flu). The only other time we were taken to the shed was at PSU. NW, DePaul, Minny we’re heartbreaking one possession losses at the buzzer. You can argue that WF and Miami are a little better than these teams - but UNC was blown out in those games. And they didn’t even belong on the same floor as Duke at home. Only ND was a close loss. I’m not sure where the argument is that their collection of losses are so great. They played some very good to decent teams and weren’t competitive in most of them.
can we beat a dead horse anymore, its not going to come down to UNC vs Rutgers, I can guarantee you that
Exactly!!!!! Hope we break or change it. Have to value good wins more than bad losses.
16-10
bart thru 12-4 208th
from 12-4 to now 47th
The above numbers should have ZERO relevance to any discussion.
I don't think you can be so sure, but the probabilities that either team is on the bubble is low.
win 1 or less and we are out
win 3 or more we are in
win 2 and all this analysis is relevant
UNC
win 1 or less and they are out
win 2 they are probably in
win 3 or more they are in
you should be worried more about Oregon, SMU, San Diego State, BYU, San Francisco, VCU
I know they say conferences don't matter but I still wonder if they will reward conferences that are having a good year. I really wonder if PAC 12 will have only three teams. If Oregon is done, does it open the door for Colorado?
Some here have suggested A10 will be a two bid league. I think Davidson and VCU may already be in, but you still have Dayton at 19-8, St. Bonnie at 18-7, St.Louis at 19-9 and even Richmond at 18-10. Could easily see a three bid league. Somebody may have a gaudy record.
Try to figure out the Mountain West, Boise is 22-6, Wyoming is 22-4, Colorado State is 21-4. Then you have good old SD State at 17-7. Plus Fresno State at 17-10.
BYU? San Fran. Often when the NCAA adds a surprise team its a western team?
Some here have suggested A10 will be a two bid league. I think Davidson and VCU may already be in, but you still have Dayton at 19-8, St. Bonnie at 18-7, St.Louis at 19-9 and even Richmond at 18-10. Could easily see a three bid league. Somebody may have a gaudy record.
Try to figure out the Mountain West, Boise is 22-6, Wyoming is 22-4, Colorado State is 21-4. Then you have good old SD State at 17-7. Plus Fresno State at 17-10.
BYU? San Fran. Often when the NCAA adds a surprise team its a western team?
Palm takes RU from first out to 4th in..no rhyme nor reason to his madness and somehow keeps Florida in
I pick the AP poll: #27, and their #26 just got torched so I say we are #26 at worst right now.
maybe he made a stop at Dunkin and got a french cruller and a medium coffee with cream and sugar and rread your analysis and copied it.
In all seriousness I don't understand how he has the job he does. He's ranked #100 on bracketmatrix.
Lunardi way more respectable.
its because back 10 years ago he and Lunardi where one of the few doing this and Jerry was an expert on the rpi. Now everyone is bracketologist and the rpi went bye bye
He hangs on but he is going the way of the dinosaur at this point.
if RU does not get in its because our record was atrocious with 14 losses and too many to overcome the good wins and we got beat out by a midmajor type school. Its not coming down to us or UNC as if that would even be a debate as UNC would the be the selection almost every time
We did not lose to UMASS because Geo did not play , although the committee might consider it and his last 8-10 minutes of Lafayette . We played a real good game with leads by 15-17 points in both halves along with 8 minutes left in the game. We were rolling along on offense as if there was no opposition that we didn’t bother to play defense, especially 3 point defense. Then UMASS hit a ridiculous 16-32 from 3 and was fouled 2 more times and made 5-6 foul shots to be 53 points from 3. We made 3 so we were outscored from 3 , by 53-9. It is an outlier as it probably will never happen again. Also, Fernandes, their point guard either got hurt or got Covid after playing us and he played great, and missed a number of subsequent games , which is probably why they are 12-13 but probably not as bad if they played with Fernandez all year. Mag and then Paul hit late shots to keep the lead and to take the lead back with a few seconds. I personally do not think not having Geo impacted that game.
Maybe not - but it should. RHJ had a career game when we beat Purdue. And they didn’t play well at all.
Geo is a kid that plays almost 35 minutes a game and is really important to what we do in terms of ball handling on offense and perimeter defense. The drop off on defense without him is huge unless your putting in Miller and then your replacing our second leading scorer with a kid who doesn’t score at all. His absence from that game, Illinois and Seton Hall was a big deal.
Yes - we played well enough offensively to win without him, but we would not have given up 16 threes in that game with Geo available. Your not giving his relative perimeter defense nearly enough credit. His absence meant more time for Jones and Hyatt in that game who are extremely poor perimeter defenders.
Also - I’m not sure why you assume our offense would have been worse with Geo available. He’s our second leading scorer.
if we do get in, here is my fear.. the committee does not have conference reps vote on their conferences members or seeds, iirc. and I doubt any such conference rep would bargain and lobby for a better seed for Rutgers, the conference noob and whipping boy.
So, I think we may get aimed at an 11 seed and first four no matter what.
I know, I know.. "that's not how it works"... but that is how the ever-present Rutgers Screw works.
So, I think we may get aimed at an 11 seed and first four no matter what.
I know, I know.. "that's not how it works"... but that is how the ever-present Rutgers Screw works.
If UNC is out, it won't be because of us. They'd probably need to lose to NC State and get blown out by Duke, and then drop the first game of the ACC tourney.... and even then, they might sneak in with a weak bubble.
Rutgers has its destiny in its own hands. Let's win tonight, and that takes some pressure off.
I thought was interesting that Real Time RPI is the worst at Bracket Matrix. I assume the RPI calcs are the same, so it shows what a stupid metric the RPI was/is.
Well on the plus side...
Virginia lose to Duke
Wake lose to Clemson
TCU losing at Texas
Our Michigan home win might be Quad 1 now?
Virginia lose to Duke
Wake lose to Clemson
TCU losing at Texas
Our Michigan home win might be Quad 1 now?
I’m sure we will be out of most brackets now. Or last of the last four in. Lots of people probably watched this game for UM and saw our poor play.
Not out..still in at least in mine..others will have them out. Its a quad 1 loss
I don't think it matters much if we are out of brackets tomorrow. Win two of the last three, we should be fine. Win one, better win some in Indy. Lose out.... well, let's not let it be that one.
It's honestly a very small bubble race right now. I see 11 teams for 7 spots as of this very moment.
Rutgers
Indiana
Michigan
North Carolina
Memphis
SMU
San Diego State
Creighton
BYU
Florida
Whichever A-10 team emerges
It's possible teams like TCU and Wake Forest eventually drop down or somebody like Oregon or Belmont climbs up. But this is how I see it and Rutgers is right around that 6-8 range.
One of Memphis/SMU will knock the other out, so if you want to consider it 9 teams for 6 spots that works too.
Rutgers
Indiana
Michigan
North Carolina
Memphis
SMU
San Diego State
Creighton
BYU
Florida
Whichever A-10 team emerges
It's possible teams like TCU and Wake Forest eventually drop down or somebody like Oregon or Belmont climbs up. But this is how I see it and Rutgers is right around that 6-8 range.
One of Memphis/SMU will knock the other out, so if you want to consider it 9 teams for 6 spots that works too.
Don’t forget bid stealers. If Murray state loses their conf and a couple others too.
SMU's point guard was apparently throwing punches at the end of the Tulsa game. He might be missing the Houston game if those reports are accurate.
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