BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS 2/21
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
This is going to start a dangerous trend of mid and lower conferences letting the best team from non conference play win big every game, and have that team lose in the finals to get.2 in if they don't fix the current system.
no thats not happening. Its a 2 bid league...likely Davidson and if they screw up in the tourney its going to go to whoever wins.
the other profiles either weak..VCU or have 3 Q4 losses Dayton. Which ever of the 3 schools including St Bonnies that make the finals will get in if Davidson win the A10
remember VCU still has games with St Bona and at St Louis. Dayton hosts Davidson. There also is the A10 tourney where seeding will determine who knocks each other out.
the other profiles either weak..VCU or have 3 Q4 losses Dayton. Which ever of the 3 schools including St Bonnies that make the finals will get in if Davidson win the A10
remember VCU still has games with St Bona and at St Louis. Dayton hosts Davidson. There also is the A10 tourney where seeding will determine who knocks each other out.
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MORNING UPDATE FOR 2/24
1 SEEDS
2 SEEDS
3 SEEDS
4 SEEDS
5 SEEDS
6 SEEDS
7 SEEDS
8 SEEDS
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
LAST FOUR IN
FIRST FOUR OUT
NEXT FOUR OUT
1 SEEDS
- GONZAGA*
- ARIZONA*
- KANSAS*
- AUBURN*
2 SEEDS
- PURDUE*
- KENTUCKY
- TEXAS TECH
- BAYLOR
3 SEEDS
- DUKE*
- ILLINOIS
- VILLANOVA
- WISCONSIN
4 SEEDS
- UCLA
- PROVIDENCE*
- TENNESSEE
- CONNECTICUT
5 SEEDS
- HOUSTON *
- TEXAS
- ALABAMA
- OHIO STATE
6 SEEDS
- USC
- LSU
- ARKANSAS
- MARQUETTE
7 SEEDS
- SAINT MARY'S
- IOWA STATE
- BOISE STATE*
- XAVIER
8 SEEDS
- IOWA
- COLORADO STATE
- MURRAY STATE*
- MICHIGAN STATE
9 SEEDS
- SETON HALL
- MIAMI
- CREIGHTON
- NOTRE DAME
10 SEEDS
- MICHIGAN
- WYOMING
- WAKE FOREST
- DAVIDSON*
- LOYOLA CHICAGO*
- TCU
- SAN FRANCISCO
- RUTGERS
- NORTH TEXAS*
- IONA*
- INDIANA/NORTH CAROLINA
- BYU/SMU
- VERMONT
- CHATTANOOGA
- SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
- NEW MEXICO STATE
- OHIO
- WAGNER
- TOWSON
- YALE
- MONTANA STATE
- COLGATE
- LIBERTY
- CLEVELAND STATE
- TEXAS STATE
- LONGWOOD
- TEXAS SOUTHERN/LONG BEACH STATE
- UNC WILMINGTON/NORFOLK STATE
LAST FOUR IN
- NORTH CAROLINA
- SMU
- BYU
- INDIANA
FIRST FOUR OUT
- MEMPHIS
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- OREGON
- VCU
NEXT FOUR OUT
- BELMONT
- FLORIDA
- DAYTON
- SAINT BONAVENTURE
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Davidson(22-4) 2-1, 3-3, 8-0, 9-0
Q4 Fordham, Q3 George Mason, Q1 @ Dayton L
2-2, 3-3, 9-0, 10-0 (24-5)
Dayton(20-8) 2-2, 5-3, 4-0, 9-3
Q4 La Salle, Q2 @ Richmond(SOR 84), Q2 Davidson- W
2-2, 7-3, 4-0, 10-3 (23-8)
VCU(19-7) 2-2, 4-4, 7-1, 6-0
Q3 @ UMass, Q3 Vs SBA- L, Q1 @ St Louis
3-2, 4-4, 8-2, 6-0(21-8)
St. Bonaventure(18-7) 3-3, 3-3, 2-1, 10-0
Q3 @ St Joes, Q1 @VCU- W, Q3 Richmond
4-3, 3-3, 4-1, 10-0(21-7)
They are 4 worthy contenders for 3 bids, or 2 and a playin, if it falls out that way.
Q4 Fordham, Q3 George Mason, Q1 @ Dayton L
2-2, 3-3, 9-0, 10-0 (24-5)
Dayton(20-8) 2-2, 5-3, 4-0, 9-3
Q4 La Salle, Q2 @ Richmond(SOR 84), Q2 Davidson- W
2-2, 7-3, 4-0, 10-3 (23-8)
VCU(19-7) 2-2, 4-4, 7-1, 6-0
Q3 @ UMass, Q3 Vs SBA- L, Q1 @ St Louis
3-2, 4-4, 8-2, 6-0(21-8)
St. Bonaventure(18-7) 3-3, 3-3, 2-1, 10-0
Q3 @ St Joes, Q1 @VCU- W, Q3 Richmond
4-3, 3-3, 4-1, 10-0(21-7)
They are 4 worthy contenders for 3 bids, or 2 and a playin, if it falls out that way.
If we win a couple more games Ken Pom might have us out all together. He is a joke, so is the net. We win a lot of close games and do not have many blow outs is the reason for the poor net.
BACTOLOGY 2/21: NCAA TOURNEY ANALYSIS
BREAKING DOWN THE NCAA TOURNAMENT PICTURE
bac2therac.substack.com
here is the link to the substack I created, first post is just a copy of the analysis from 2/21, you can follow and comment and sign up, I dont know much about substack so bear with me.
Ill be posting todays update next
We are last 4 byes still in lunardis latest. Just take care of business
Yup gotta take advantage of the RAC on Saturday. Although I could definitely see us beating Indiana on the road given how much they've fallen off I don't think anyone wants to rely on that.
Are we still of the general mindset that to get in we need to go 2-1 in these last 3 and avoid a bad loss in Indy?
Are we still of the general mindset that to get in we need to go 2-1 in these last 3 and avoid a bad loss in Indy?
I'm sure the B1G know which 2 games are better for us to win than we do, running the multitude of scenarios out down to the final score.
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I tend to agree with Joe here, alot other pundits are following the NET religiously and ignoring quality wins. Some putting VCU in the field even as they have only 1 win vs field was RU has 7. I think some are too caught up in overall Quad stuff without looking into actually who those teams beat
the A10 schools have seriously flawed resumes. I see Brad has Dayton over RU on the last 4 out list..how is that even possible with their 3 Q4 losses
minor point on Joe...not sure why he has Loyola not as AQ on MVC..i see a tie and they beat No. Iowa this year.
pretty much. We also have the possibility of Michigan moving back into the top 30. Wisky is a big win...we would have wins over 2, 3, 3, 5, 8,8 seedings and then possiby Mich/Indy
Also, I know they want road wins but not all road wins are created equal. Much harder to win on the road in big ten against top 20 opponents than the A10 where no one is at half of these gyms besides the top few schools.
if RU has a trouble with their net, certainly st bonnie are not getting a bid
here I cannot defend RU tho....3-9 is the worst of any bubble school, only Indiana at 3-6 is bad like this. Non conference RU went 0-3...you just cannot do that
I’m not saying it’s good ; especially the DePaul and UMass road losses but it’s tough to compare in conference road wins and losses between high and mid major
its true but many of them also have neutral site wins over teams in the field
RU needs an entire makeover in its OOC scheduling philosophy, Pike is way behind the curveo
This is a great sign. He is usually a good indicator. Let’s just win our home games and we should be in.
Shelby from USA Today also has RU above the last 4 in....11th seed in his updated bracket.
meanwhile Jerry Palm has not update his bracket for 3 days...he gets paid for this nonsense
meanwhile Jerry Palm has not update his bracket for 3 days...he gets paid for this nonsense
Jerry update....and he still hasnt updated besides his last 4 in and out
RU now last team out
Indiana also out, Florida somehow in
RU now last team out
Indiana also out, Florida somehow in
I’m beginning to think it doesn’t matter.
Win out the regular season and we’ll be in every bracket as long as we don’t lose by 30 to Nebraska or something.
Go 2-1 - in as long as we win the 5-12 or 6-11 game in the tourney.
We can’t really afford any other scenerio unless we get the autobid.
Win out the regular season and we’ll be in every bracket as long as we don’t lose by 30 to Nebraska or something.
Go 2-1 - in as long as we win the 5-12 or 6-11 game in the tourney.
We can’t really afford any other scenerio unless we get the autobid.
I don’t think that’s quite true - if we win only one more regular season game, we’ll certainly have work to do in the tourney but we don’t need to win the damn thing.
2 wins in the tourney would include a Q2 (likely PSU or Northwestern) and a very good Q1 win. We pull that off and we’re almost certainly in.
Is there a miracle scenario where Rutgers only wins one more game, but the rest of the bubble all choke and we still squeak in?
Or would rest of bubble choking just open it up for a teams not currently expected to come out of nowhere
Or would rest of bubble choking just open it up for a teams not currently expected to come out of nowhere
I’m of the opinion it’s going to be very tough with 14 losses. That total stands out which is going to bring the committee full circle back to our terrible OOC results as the reason for such a high loss count. I honestly think, fair or not a mid-major with a gaudy record would get picked ahead of us at 14 losses unless maybe we made it all the way to the finals and lost. 20-14 would mean 3 more neutral games against really good teams so the SOS at that point would really stand out. In this sense, not playing Rider would be helpful.
I could see a 17-13 finish then 1-1 for 18-14 . Probably 30/70
A 17-14 selection would seem improbable but still a small chance 10/90
A 17-15 selection seems remote..1%
18-15..maybe 20%
Committee always has one selection that is a headscratcher
19-14 would get us in..80%
It’s not impossible but I’d be a lot more nervous with 14 losses. I think we’d for sure have to at least be competitive in the loss - we would not be able to go out the way we did last year - even to a good team.
In this scenerio we likely beat 2 seed in the quarters..monster win over Ill or Wisky
Rooting to lose tonight:
San Francisco
Belmont
Oregon
Indiana
BYU
Memphis
San Francisco
Belmont
Oregon
Indiana
BYU
Memphis
Over the years NCAA has liked the A10. Can easily see three bids.
Lol Terps went on a 9-0 run as soon as I posted this, down 3 at the half.
