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BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

It’s so hard to root for Michigan which after PSU has become most hated team.
Michigan to me has passed PSU for most hated B1G school since PSU is only relevant to us in football and wrestling. RU pretty much holds their ground in every other sport vs PSU. Michigan on the other hand seems to be good to elite in everything and their fans act they're God's gift to college athletics.
 
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Ignore 20 league games at your own peril. Plus SHU plus ACC challenge plus Gavitt. That’s why when all is said and done Top 30 schedule. Add Princeton and stop your whining.
Not whining. I don’t care. Just saying that more data are better.
 
32 Top 30! Please. Hyper technical much? Play 20 games in arguably the best conference in the country. SMH.
32 is the highest of the three I mentioned though. Kenpom is 44.

I mean I'm mostly on your side here but it's just simply not top 30 by any measure that I've seen.
 
so listened to that zoom again with the bracketologists

so the next grouping of 8 they picked were Florida, Loyola, No Texas, St Bonnies, VCU, Memphis, Indiana, and BYU

out of that grouping the 4 to move onto be added to the 4 leftovers from the previous night.....VCU, Memphis, Indiana, BYU

So the grouping of 8 was UNC, RU, SMU, Xavier, VCU, Memphis, Indiana and BYU

the top 4 vote getters were in order....Rutgers, Xavier, North Carolina and Memphis

The 4 remaining schools who their vote when thrown back in with Fla, Loy, No Texas St Bonnies

Now it appeared they had selected too many teams but actually the teams that are out will be determined until after they are finishing seeding on that 11 line or in case of a bid stealer.

So this is actually how the committee will do it, not just pick teams in. In this scenario RU still would appear a few spots above the actual cut line unless for some reason their seeding takes such a hit that they are out.

Again they are voting them based on records today and not what will happen.


Procedures for Seeding

1. Each committee member will submit a list of the best eight teams, in no particular order, from teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections:

a. When 20 or more teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list eight teams;

b. When 14 to 19 teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list six or fewer teams;

c. When 13 or fewer teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list four teams.

Note: When 24 or fewer teams are on the list ballot to be seeded, a member may not participate in “list X teams” ballots if a team he or she represents as a commissioner or athletics director, or has an immediate family member conflict, is included in the “pool.”

2. The eight teams receiving the most votes comprise the next seed list ballot.

3. Committee members rank the eight teams from No. 1, using a “ranking” scoring system (i.e., the best team is valued at one point).


4. The four teams receiving the fewest points are moved onto the seed list in ascending order of vote total. The other four teams are held for the next rank ballot.

5. Each committee member then submits a list of the best eight remaining teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections. The four teams with the highest vote totals are added to the teams carried over from No. 4 to comprise the next seed list ballot.

6. Steps No. 3, 4 and 5 are repeated until all the teams are seeded.

7. At any time during the process, the number of teams eligible to receive votes may be increased or decreased by the chair if circumstances warrant. Further, the chair has the option to revise the number of teams from four to fewer than four to be moved onto the seed list per No. 4.

8. After a team has been voted into the seed list, it may be moved by a simple majority of eligible votes. This “scrubbing” of the seed list allows the committee to affirm true seed accuracy throughout selection weekend and ultimately, in the bracket. Scrubbing is exclusively for teams that are in the field.

9. After the completion of three rounds of secret voting, if the voting results are still tied, the Chair shall break the tie.

10. The committee is not obligated to assemble the seed list in sequential order. For example, the committee may use the procedures to determine the fourth quadrant of teams at any time
 
so listened to that zoom again with the bracketologists

so the next grouping of 8 they picked were Florida, Loyola, No Texas, St Bonnies, VCU, Memphis, Indiana, and BYU

out of that grouping the 4 to move onto be added to the 4 leftovers from the previous night.....VCU, Memphis, Indiana, BYU

So the grouping of 8 was UNC, RU, SMU, Xavier, VCU, Memphis, Indiana and BYU

the top 4 vote getters were in order....Rutgers, Xavier, North Carolina and Memphis

The 4 remaining schools who their vote when thrown back in with Fla, Loy, No Texas St Bonnies

Now it appeared they had selected too many teams but actually the teams that are out will be determined until after they are finishing seeding on that 11 line or in case of a bid stealer.

So this is actually how the committee will do it, not just pick teams in. In this scenario RU still would appear a few spots above the actual cut line unless for some reason their seeding takes such a hit that they are out.

Again they are voting them based on records today and not what will happen.


Procedures for Seeding

1. Each committee member will submit a list of the best eight teams, in no particular order, from teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections:

a. When 20 or more teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list eight teams;

b. When 14 to 19 teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list six or fewer teams;

c. When 13 or fewer teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list four teams.

Note: When 24 or fewer teams are on the list ballot to be seeded, a member may not participate in “list X teams” ballots if a team he or she represents as a commissioner or athletics director, or has an immediate family member conflict, is included in the “pool.”

2. The eight teams receiving the most votes comprise the next seed list ballot.

3. Committee members rank the eight teams from No. 1, using a “ranking” scoring system (i.e., the best team is valued at one point).


4. The four teams receiving the fewest points are moved onto the seed list in ascending order of vote total. The other four teams are held for the next rank ballot.

5. Each committee member then submits a list of the best eight remaining teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections. The four teams with the highest vote totals are added to the teams carried over from No. 4 to comprise the next seed list ballot.

6. Steps No. 3, 4 and 5 are repeated until all the teams are seeded.

7. At any time during the process, the number of teams eligible to receive votes may be increased or decreased by the chair if circumstances warrant. Further, the chair has the option to revise the number of teams from four to fewer than four to be moved onto the seed list per No. 4.

8. After a team has been voted into the seed list, it may be moved by a simple majority of eligible votes. This “scrubbing” of the seed list allows the committee to affirm true seed accuracy throughout selection weekend and ultimately, in the bracket. Scrubbing is exclusively for teams that are in the field.

9. After the completion of three rounds of secret voting, if the voting results are still tied, the Chair shall break the tie.

10. The committee is not obligated to assemble the seed list in sequential order. For example, the committee may use the procedures to determine the fourth quadrant of teams at any time
Thanks so much for that! But lots of suspect teams not listed. Is Wake in? UVA? Marquette? Creighton? Texas A&M? South Carolina? Mountain West schools? Oregon? Colorado? San Fran? Va Tech? Michigan? Miami? LSU?

Sounds much better for us but even I wouldn’t write off a half dozen schools.
 
interesting stats

Record vs teams in field/contention
  • Rutgers 8-5
  • Michigan 6-11
  • Miami 5-2
  • Xavier 5-9
  • Oregon 4-6
  • Oklahoma 4-11
  • SMU 3-1
  • Wyoming 3-4 (counting No Iowa)
  • Notre Dame 3-5
  • BYU 3-5
  • Indiana 3-8
  • Memphis 2-2
  • Florida 2-6
  • San Francisco 2-6
  • Loyola 1-2 (counting No Iowa)
  • VCU 1-3
  • North Carolina 1-7
Losses to teams not in tournament/contention
  • Rutgers 7
  • Miami 7
  • Memphis 7
  • Oregon 6
  • SMU 6
  • Florida 5
  • Notre Dame 4
  • Loyola 4
  • VCU 4
  • BYU 4
  • Indiana 3
  • Xavier 3
  • Wyoming 3
  • Oklahoma 3
  • San Francisco 2
  • North Carolina 1
  • Michigan 1
 
Thanks so much for that! But lots of suspect teams not listed. Is Wake in? UVA? Marquette? Creighton? Texas A&M? South Carolina? Mountain West schools? Oregon? Colorado? San Fran? Va Tech? Michigan? Miami? LSU?

Sounds much better for us but even I wouldn’t write off a half dozen schools.


yes they had put a bunch of teams in yesterday...Wake, SF, Wyoming, San Diego State, Notre Dame, Miami, Michigan (before last nights result), Davidson

schools like Oregon, Col, Texas A&M, Va Tech kept on the consideration list not even moving on to the seed list
 
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interesting stats

Record vs teams in field/contention
  • Rutgers 8-5
  • Michigan 6-11
  • Miami 5-2
  • Xavier 5-9
  • Oregon 4-6
  • Oklahoma 4-11
  • SMU 3-1
  • Wyoming 3-4 (counting No Iowa)
  • Notre Dame 3-5
  • BYU 3-5
  • Indiana 3-8
  • Memphis 2-2
  • Florida 2-6
  • San Francisco 2-6
  • Loyola 1-2 (counting No Iowa)
  • VCU 1-3
  • North Carolina 1-7
Losses to teams not in tournament/contention
  • Rutgers 7
  • Miami 7
  • Memphis 7
  • Oregon 6
  • SMU 6
  • Florida 5
  • Notre Dame 4
  • Loyola 4
  • VCU 4
  • BYU 4
  • Indiana 3
  • Xavier 3
  • Wyoming 3
  • Oklahoma 3
  • San Francisco 2
  • North Carolina 1
  • Michigan 1
I think record against likely tournament teams gives us more credibility than many think
 
interesting stats

Record vs teams in field/contention
  • Rutgers 8-5
  • Michigan 6-11
  • Miami 5-2
  • Xavier 5-9
  • Oregon 4-6
  • Oklahoma 4-11
  • SMU 3-1
  • Wyoming 3-4 (counting No Iowa)
  • Notre Dame 3-5
  • BYU 3-5
  • Indiana 3-8
  • Memphis 2-2
  • Florida 2-6
  • San Francisco 2-6
  • Loyola 1-2 (counting No Iowa)
  • VCU 1-3
  • North Carolina 1-7
Losses to teams not in tournament/contention
  • Rutgers 7
  • Miami 7
  • Memphis 7
  • Oregon 6
  • SMU 6
  • Florida 5
  • Notre Dame 4
  • Loyola 4
  • VCU 4
  • BYU 4
  • Indiana 3
  • Xavier 3
  • Wyoming 3
  • Oklahoma 3
  • San Francisco 2
  • North Carolina 1
  • Michigan 1

That's crazy.... best record against teams in the tourney, and most losses to teams not in the tourney.
 
Belmont lost which makes Murray State's path a little easier. But Morehead State is still a good team and they played Murray tougher during the regular season.

The OVC will award the first bid tonight starting at 8:30.

EDIT: Oh jeez I just saw how Belmont lost that game.

 
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Big ones today:

Davidson at Dayton 12:30
Miami at Syracuse 1:00
Virginia Tech at Clemson 2:00
Kentucky at Florida 2:00
Indiana at Purdue 2:00
Seton Hall at Creighton 2:30
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame 2:30
Loyola Chicago at Northern Iowa 3:30
VCU at Saint Louis 4:00
Fresno State at Wyoming 4:00
UNC at Duke 6:00
Georgetown at Xavier 7:00
Morehead State at Murray State 8:30
San Diego State at Nevada 10:30
BYU at San Francisco 10:30
 
so listened to that zoom again with the bracketologists

so the next grouping of 8 they picked were Florida, Loyola, No Texas, St Bonnies, VCU, Memphis, Indiana, and BYU

out of that grouping the 4 to move onto be added to the 4 leftovers from the previous night.....VCU, Memphis, Indiana, BYU

So the grouping of 8 was UNC, RU, SMU, Xavier, VCU, Memphis, Indiana and BYU

the top 4 vote getters were in order....Rutgers, Xavier, North Carolina and Memphis

The 4 remaining schools who their vote when thrown back in with Fla, Loy, No Texas St Bonnies

Now it appeared they had selected too many teams but actually the teams that are out will be determined until after they are finishing seeding on that 11 line or in case of a bid stealer.

So this is actually how the committee will do it, not just pick teams in. In this scenario RU still would appear a few spots above the actual cut line unless for some reason their seeding takes such a hit that they are out.

Again they are voting them based on records today and not what will happen.


Procedures for Seeding

1. Each committee member will submit a list of the best eight teams, in no particular order, from teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections:

a. When 20 or more teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list eight teams;

b. When 14 to 19 teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list six or fewer teams;

c. When 13 or fewer teams are on the list ballot, each member shall list four teams.

Note: When 24 or fewer teams are on the list ballot to be seeded, a member may not participate in “list X teams” ballots if a team he or she represents as a commissioner or athletics director, or has an immediate family member conflict, is included in the “pool.”

2. The eight teams receiving the most votes comprise the next seed list ballot.

3. Committee members rank the eight teams from No. 1, using a “ranking” scoring system (i.e., the best team is valued at one point).


4. The four teams receiving the fewest points are moved onto the seed list in ascending order of vote total. The other four teams are held for the next rank ballot.

5. Each committee member then submits a list of the best eight remaining teams that are in the tournament as automatic qualifiers or at-large selections. The four teams with the highest vote totals are added to the teams carried over from No. 4 to comprise the next seed list ballot.

6. Steps No. 3, 4 and 5 are repeated until all the teams are seeded.

7. At any time during the process, the number of teams eligible to receive votes may be increased or decreased by the chair if circumstances warrant. Further, the chair has the option to revise the number of teams from four to fewer than four to be moved onto the seed list per No. 4.

8. After a team has been voted into the seed list, it may be moved by a simple majority of eligible votes. This “scrubbing” of the seed list allows the committee to affirm true seed accuracy throughout selection weekend and ultimately, in the bracket. Scrubbing is exclusively for teams that are in the field.

9. After the completion of three rounds of secret voting, if the voting results are still tied, the Chair shall break the tie.

10. The committee is not obligated to assemble the seed list in sequential order. For example, the committee may use the procedures to determine the fourth quadrant of teams at any time
hangover-math.gif
 
Belmont lost which makes Murray State's path a little easier. But Morehead State is still a good team and they played Murray tougher during the regular season.

The OVC will award the first bid tonight starting at 8:30.

EDIT: Oh jeez I just saw how Belmont lost that game.

Oof.
 
Big ones today:

Davidson at Dayton 12:30
Miami at Syracuse 1:00
Virginia Tech at Clemson 2:00
Kentucky at Florida 2:00
Indiana at Purdue 2:00
Seton Hall at Creighton 2:30
Pittsburgh at Notre Dame 2:30
Loyola Chicago at Northern Iowa 3:30
VCU at Saint Louis 4:00
Fresno State at Wyoming 4:00
UNC at Duke 6:00
Georgetown at Xavier 7:00
Morehead State at Murray State 8:30
San Diego State at Nevada 10:30
BYU at San Francisco 10:30
Out of those, rooting the hardest for:

Kentucky
Purdue
Saint Louis
Fresno
Duke
Murray
San Fran

Georgetown too but well, it's Georgetown

Also one more for the list is Oregon at Wazzou although maybe the Ducks are pretty much dead already
 
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As a proud Morehead State alum, I was happy!!
I was watching some of thos game down the stretch, although I was struggling to stay awake because of the hour. Both teams seemed careless with the ball against on-ball pressure. Good D, or bad O? Regardless, I hope Murray State does what they need to do tonight.
 
Out of those, rooting the hardest for:

Kentucky
Purdue
Saint Louis
Fresno
Duke
Murray
San Fran

Georgetown too but well, it's Georgetown

Also one more for the list is Oregon at Wazzou although maybe the Ducks are pretty much dead already
If one of Georgetown or Pitt managed to do the unthinkable...
 
So many scenarios over the last few weeks it gets confusing.
who are we rooting for in Davidson/Dayton and Loyola/NI?
Definitely Davidson. Dayton has no shot at an AQ while Davidson can possibly squeeze in with a loss.

I’m torn on Loyola/UNI. Most except bac have Loyola in but barely. He has them out so with a loss they’d be way out for him. But if they do beat UNI, we really need them to win the final.
 
Definitely Davidson. Dayton has no shot at an AQ while Davidson can possibly squeeze in with a loss.

I’m torn on Loyola/UNI. Most except bac have Loyola in but barely. He has them out so with a loss they’d be way out for him. But if they do beat UNI, we really need them to win the final.

Careful with the bracket matrix because most arent following the rule to determine conference AQ....that would be to assume Northern Iowa is the winner. Only 66 brackets are doing this and 87 have Loyola. How many brackets are given Loyola an at large? Not many...

66 for No Iowa AQ...1 for Missouri St.. 53 for Loyola making up 120 brackets

That would be 34 brackets with Loyola as at large
 
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Kansas St over Oklahoma and Kentucky over Florida would be good results, correct?
Just boggles my mind. At one point Oklahoma lost 11 of 14 and is only two games above .500 and we have worry about RU?
 
Oklahoma played a very tough schedule, 17-14 against that would be right in bubble territory, better than 18-12 against our schedule really. They still can't afford to take a L in the first game of the Big 12 Tourney though I wouldn't think, 17-15 is no bueno. 18-15 I can see it.
 
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Oklahoma played a very tough schedule, 17-14 against that would be right in bubble territory, better than 18-12 against our schedule really. They still can't afford to take a L in the first game of the Big 12 Tourney though I wouldn't think, 17-15 is no bueno. 18-15 I can see it.
Is that the same thing as Mich St? They're 2-8 in their last 10 including being blown out by RU, yet they're projected to be a 6 or 7 seed. I remember when how you finished mattered more than what you did in November and December. Now it seems games #4 or 5 matters as much as 29 or 30.
 
Is that the same thing as Mich St? They're 2-8 in their last 10 including being blown out by RU, yet they're projected to be a 6 or 7 seed. I remember when how you finished mattered more than what you did in November and December. Now it seems games #4 or 5 matters as much as 29 or 30.
How you finish, specifically, does not matter. And that's the way it should be.

Michigan St at 19-11 is far above the bubble despite dropping pretty far in that 2-7 stretch.
 
That's crazy.... best record against teams in the tourney, and most losses to teams not in the tourney.
And how do the powers that be interpret this? With my RU bias, I feel that the correct interpretation is that RU rises to the occasion against the best teams in the country and lacks motivation against weaker competition. Do they want teams in the field that can beat bad teams or do they want teams capable of winning several games in the NCAAs? Beating 4 ranked teams in a row in February? Or doing well in November and struggling down the stretch?
 
If Davidson loses to Dayton and VCU beats St Louis, there is a tie for first. I believe VCU gets the tiebreaker and would move to projected AQ while Davidson fall somewhere in the at large field or not
 
If North Caroline loses by 15 or more tonight does Memphis move ahead of NC?

I dont expect that to happen., UNC isnt falling out by losing at Duke. Memphis placement before conference tourney time going to be determined by how they do vs Houston and whether Michigan and/or Indiana can win to stay in the field. Memphis may just back in the field if those lose.
 
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