I think it’s best to get in top 4 with double bye, therefore we should be rooting for Michigan to beat Ohio St and Illinois to beat Iowa. If that happens we automatically finish in 4th presuming we beat Penn St
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Here's the Michigan argument summed up,
Michigan 16-13, 4-10, 14gm, 4-2, 8-12, 20 gm, 5-1, 13-13, 26 of 29, 3-0
Rutgers 17-12, 6-5, 11gm, 3-4, 9-9, 18 gm, 3-2, 12-11, 23 of 29, 5-1
Some would put Michigan ahead of Rutgers.
Michigan loss, Rutgers win
Michigan 16-14, 4-11, 15/30, 4-2, 8-13, 21/30, 5-1, 13-14, 27/30
Rutgers 18-12, 6-5, 11/30, 3-4, 9-9, 18/30, 4-2, 13-11, 24/30
We might be ahead in this scenario going into the BTT.
Michigan wins 5-10, 4-2, 5-1, 14-13, probably not.
Michigan 16-13, 4-10, 14gm, 4-2, 8-12, 20 gm, 5-1, 13-13, 26 of 29, 3-0
Rutgers 17-12, 6-5, 11gm, 3-4, 9-9, 18 gm, 3-2, 12-11, 23 of 29, 5-1
Some would put Michigan ahead of Rutgers.
Michigan loss, Rutgers win
Michigan 16-14, 4-11, 15/30, 4-2, 8-13, 21/30, 5-1, 13-14, 27/30
Rutgers 18-12, 6-5, 11/30, 3-4, 9-9, 18/30, 4-2, 13-11, 24/30
We might be ahead in this scenario going into the BTT.
Michigan wins 5-10, 4-2, 5-1, 14-13, probably not.
They lost @UCF btw, and they’re slightly better than DePaul. I know that neither is good this year but thought it was fair to count both as “relatively serious” OOC games.
Pike could use this season as justification FOR the way they scheduled if we still get in
They had some terrible losses early and could have even lost a couple more. Wins weren't even impressive which hurts metrics. We also lost to bottom teams in conference play as well that we should have beat.
All that and we STILL make the tournament he probably thinks why change it? Worst case pretty much against the worst teams both in and OOC and we make it.
What if the easier games we replaced with harder games were Leigh and Merrimack games and we lost them too? Can't just assume we replace the games we lost with better teams just bc that is the helpful to Rutgers "what if" way to see it
Could argue well what if we didn't beat all those Q1 teams... that is partly true and we did better than expected with so many but as long as we have a good team, we will upset teams @ the RAC. It's been a trend for years now.
I'd like to see maybe an early season tournament on neutral court or a game or 2 switched to better comp... maybe search for 200s instead of 300s for 1 and a legit team for the second... something along those lines but let's not get crazy.
SOS in the 30s is more than good enough. We don't need a top 10 SOS. How high of a SOS goal should we realistically be shooting for? You leave so little margin for error of having total losses be an issue when you play in the B1G and schedule a tough OOC. Michigan would probably be in if they scheduled weaker. Total losses are going to keep them and their high SOS out most likely if they lose to OSU
They know they can't schedule 6 dogs like Lehigh, Merrimack, NJIT, Lafayette, Maine, and CCSU in a season again, because it is putting them at the bottom of the seeding process. 2 Q4s are 2 Q3s and we aren't even close to the bubble at 6-5, 3-4, 5-2 3-1, Q1/2 9-9, Q1/2/3 14-11 with PSU finish.
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Playing a bad out of conference schedule gives Pike ability to play younger guys more and develop a rotation for January. I don’t think Cliff improves as much as he did without those games and on the other hand he realized Jaden Jones just not ready to contribute this year
If we handled our business the young guys would all have gotten even more time to develop too
this....we have returning starters who played terribly early and then put the young guys in tough spots forcing them to make plays...not a good recipe for guys getting their feet wet. An inexperienced bench should not be forced to bail out 5 year starters
Why the ever loving **** would you assume we have the SAME record if we played a HARDER schedule.
Seriously why do people keep doing this???
Yup, those games should have been blow outs where the young guys can get and build confidence coming in with a 15/20 point lead in front of a friendly home crowd with minimal pressure
It won't but why run the risk, we can beat a team like #138 St Peter's 14-11 and #126 FAU 14-13 at home as we did dogs like Maine or CCSU, perception is much better about our resume.
This could not be more true. The bad play of our veterans in early season action definitely hampered Pike’s plan
How could you say that knowing we lost to Lafayette
from what I remember I think Ron played pretty solid and Cliff wasnt bad. It was Geo and then Paul and Caleb were just exceedingly bad making alot of mistakes. I thought Hyatt wasnt all that bad early. Jones wasnt terrible on offense. I just thought they were put in pressure situations and that wasnt fair to Jaden, everyone was really critical so much of his D...he should have been to play through that.
Last time Maine had a winning record 2009-10
NJIT 1 winning record, last 6 years
CCSU last winning record 2010-11
Merrimack 3rd season in D1
Lehigh last winning season 18-19, last 3 years 28-50
Lafayette 1 winning season last 7 years, 19-20
You can't schedule 20% of your schedule with that, 19-20 there was Hofstra, 18-19 Drexel, nothing wrong with winning close vs Colonial than run the risk of schedule 6 bottom teams from three of the worst conferences in the Northeast, Patriot, NEC, and AE and having an off game against them, like we did Lafayette.
The point is that nobody on the team played like they are now. If they were, we wouldn’t have lost any games with maybe exception of Seton Hall
You cannot schedule like that if you are not in BIG1G
I dont see it..all they have is a win over San Fran
If you just have metrics you have nothing. Remove the NET and analyze the resume.
They have a great chance of winning the MVC
If you just have metrics you have nothing. Remove the NET and analyze the resume.
They have a great chance of winning the MVC
They'd be top ten NET if they got to beat Evansville by 50 again
I think the main thing for you guys to worry about is that, historically, when the committee snubs a team that most people feel is deserving, they almost always point to a weak OOC schedule as what they're punishing. I get the argument that total schedule should matter more than OOC schedule, I'm just pointing out what the committee's done in the past. In general, you've shown you can beat teams in the field and I think that should give you the benefit of the doubt, but playing an OOC schedule ranked 301st and losing 4 games against it gives the committee an excuse to leave you out should they choose to do so.
Agree..but only if 18-14 or worse. 19 wins and there is no justification
This may not be a problem every year, but we looked simply disinterested the first month of the season. Schedule some solid comp and that can get the competitive juices flowing.
This doesn’t explain why you assume we always beat the #~125 team when we lost to like #320 and got taken to overtime by like #300.
If you put tougher games in the Lafayette and UMass spots were obviously better off. If you put tougher games in the Lehigh and NJIT spots we are 15-14 and definitely ****ed.
No one will argue that RU's play in conference is not NCAA worthy. It is. We beat all of the top teams. Lost to some of the bottom teams too but the overall record will be either 11-9 or 12-8 before the conference tourny. They are a much different team than when the season began. Cliff is better every game. The rotation is established. They have played and beaten conference teams that will be seeded high in the NCAAs. No honest observer can feel that RU will not play a close game against just about any other NCAA tourny team. On the other hand, a team who started the season playing well but is leaking oil down the stretch cannot say that. That is why there would be tremendous disappointment among our fan base if we beat Penn State, finish 12-8 in a tough B1G, and then are not in.
They get the schedule in September, the players take a look at each opponent and they saw and thought, Lehigh 28-50 last 3 years, MW 3rd season in D1, NJIT 1 winning season last 6 years, Depaul finished last in the Big East last 5 years, Lafayette 1 winning season last 7 years, and UMass last winning season 2014-15 coming off a season you went to the NCAA tournament that they came in thinking they could just show up at home and win games with a schedule like this where if they were challenged out the gate it might not happen.
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Disagree. And incredibly lame to schedule Wagner in football but that’s a story for another day.
Ignore 20 league games at your own peril. Plus SHU plus ACC challenge plus Gavitt. That’s why when all is said and done Top 30 schedule. Add Princeton and stop your whining.
Not sure where top 30 is coming from. We are in the 40s on Kenpom and 32 or 50 on Bart depending on what measure you use.
Ideally I think the schedule would be a little tougher than this year.. we got a bit unlucky in that regard that Clemson sucks and that we drew DePaul from the Big East. But we really don't need soo many games in the 300s.
That said I don't think it's the huge deal that it is made out to be and the bottom line is that no matter what our schedule if we take care of business we will be in the tournament.
Ideally I think the schedule would be a little tougher than this year.. we got a bit unlucky in that regard that Clemson sucks and that we drew DePaul from the Big East. But we really don't need soo many games in the 300s.
That said I don't think it's the huge deal that it is made out to be and the bottom line is that no matter what our schedule if we take care of business we will be in the tournament.
It’s so hard to root for Michigan which after PSU has become most hated team.
32 Top 30! Please. Hyper technical much? Play 20 games in arguably the best conference in the country. SMH.
Every team is different. I’m reasonably convinced this team would have had the same 6-4 type record OOC no matter who we scheduled. There really hasn’t been much correlation between the level of the team we play and whether we win or lose.
I do get that not every team turns out like this one though. This team has been hard to figure playing up and down to everyone.
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