BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23

[bac2therac]

3/4 update

10 SEEDS

• NOTRE DAME
• MIAMI
• XAVIER
• WYOMING

11 SEEDS

• NORTH TEXAS*
• WAKE FOREST
• RUTGERS
• SAN FRANCISCO

12 SEEDS

• NORTH CAROLINA/INDIANA
• MICHIGAN/BYU
• SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
• IONA*

LAST FOUR IN

• INDIANA
• BYU
• MICHIGAN
• NORTH CAROLINA

FIRST FOUR OUT

• SMU
• MEMPHIS
• FLORIDA
• VIRGINA COMMONWEALTH

NEXT FOUR OUT

• VIRGINIA TECH
• LOYOLA CHICAGO
• OREGON
• OKLAHOMA

Michigan falls all the way from the 10 line to first four games. The 13 loss total is too excessive to put any either. They MUST beat Ohio State to remain in the field heading into the Big 10 tournament.

Rutgers moves up a run to 6th team in but hardly safe. A loss to Penn State puts them on the cut line either way. A win vs Penn State would not move RU up much in itself as RU's movement will be determined by the performance of bubble schools around them.

Oregon took a costly loss at Washington and now must reach the Pac 12 finals to even move close to the cut line. Not sure even a win over Arizona would be enough. They might have to win it all

Fairly safe to say everyone above the 10 seed line is lock or virtual lock....yes even Creighton and likely even San Diego State after their double OT win last night....maybe 90%

Basically 11 open spots now and yes thats not being conservative, its 11 spots open...there are 5 ACC bubbles. While there are probably 24 schools competing for those 11 spots, its realistically only about 17 schools for 11 bids.

 

[bac2therac]

This continues to drive me crazy. Our Q4 and extra Q3 loss were in November 2021. November. NOVEMBER. NOVEMBER!!! Post autumn, I think our resume kicks Michigan's ass.

body of work, the whole season counts, you cannot dismiss 1/3 of the season. If RU had a win over Baylor everyone would be saying yes that was big time win

Pikiell also scheduled a 300 plus non conference schedule

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Every bracketlogist gives his picks without factoring in bid stealers. I think for some to stand out and take it to the next level analysis should not be in a world without one when it is extremely unlikely this year we won't have one.

I would be factoring at least one 1 right now and possibly 2 in the analysis and include the rationale.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You could almost move SMU up and make a line Michigan-Indiana (assuming they are 1st BTT matchup)

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

body of work, the whole season counts, you cannot dismiss 1/3 of the season. If RU had a win over Baylor everyone would be saying yes that was big time win

Pikiell also scheduled a 300 plus non conference schedule

It’s unfortunate for us that no weight is given to in season improvement. Clemson getting at 7 seed last season is proof that the early games carry the same weight.

 

[bac2therac]

Every bracketlogist gives his picks without factoring in bid stealers. I think for some to stand out and take it to the next level analysis should not be in a world without one when it is extremely unlikely this year we won't have one.

I would be factoring at least one 1 right now and possibly 2 in the analysis and include the rationale.

No....we do the field if selected today

 

[bac2therac]

It’s unfortunate for us that no weight is given to in season improvement. Clemson getting at 7 seed last season is proof that the early games carry the same weight.

non conference counts...its 1/3 the season

Clemson had wins over Alabama and Purdue last year and a sos of 32/37

Just because Rutgers for the last 40 years have decided to schedule horrible OOC, we are missing out on what the rest of the country goes through for the most part.

 

[bac2therac]

You could almost move SMU up and make a line Michigan-Indiana (assuming they are 1st BTT matchup)

I wanted to take Indiana out by as hard I tried I just do not think the SMU and Memphis deserve it. I dont see the big deal about beating Houston which both did and while Memphis did it on the road and has a win over Alabama, the Tigers got swept by SMU. Memphis will vault into the field if they beat Houston on Sunday and thats a home game for Memphis.

Reality says its fairly unlikely for both Indiana and Michigan to make it unless Indiana beats Purdue and Michigan beats Ohio State, in that case Indiana win over Michigan would put the Hoosiers in it but Michigan would still have a chance, if Michigan beats Indiana, then the Wolverines have a great shot and Indiana is sort of 50/50.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

No....we do the field if selected today

That is analysis on 1 axis. You take it to another level if you make prediction on the amount of at large teams.

 

[kcg88]

What is the logic here? Either you think they deserve to get in or not. Why would he stop voting for them?

We are hoping the loud voice(s) in the room are banging the table for "big wins" and that the meeker committee members are the ones pointing to NET and overall record.

 

[bac2therac]

wait, so are we now saying 1 more win and we're not a lock?

its not necessarily a lock. If we get the double bye, yeah its probably is because the loss would be to Iowa or OSU not hurting us, its if we lose to Northwestern or Minnesota where the fretting begins...we still could get in but it will be scary

 

[Scangg]

I dont get why OOC SOS is so important. It should just be overall SOS. Who cares whether the hard or easy games you play are in conference or OOC? Our SOS is in the 30s overall that's more than fine

 

[bac2therac]

Bac - do you see any locks for a bid from what would otherwise be a one-bid league? Example, Davidson or Murray State - will they get at-large consideration if they stumble?

Murray State is all but a lock as an at large if they lose and there are two schools...Belmont and Morehead State that are quite capable of beating them

Davidson has a decent shot for an at large from the A10, 65-35 they will be the regular season champ and while not a great profile there is a gaudy win total and no bad losses. The A10 may end up getting a 2nd bid with VCU but I wouldnt agree on it. In fact one of the biggest games for bubble teams will be VCU at St Louis tomorrow...root hard for the Bilikens

North Texas is the other mid major that will be considered for a bid but that is a bit more hazier might be under 40/60

 

[bac2therac]

if San Fran beats BYU in the WCC quarters 4/5 game, I dont see BYU getting in.

 

[bac2therac]

What is the logic here? Either you think they deserve to get in or not. Why would he stop voting for them?

because they gave the committee reasons to leave them out...and there are and after they keep getting passed up, the influence of the other committee members starts to make sense

 

[Scangg]

because they gave the committee reasons to leave them out...and there are and after they keep getting passed up, the influence of the other committee members starts to make sense

You could just be "unlucky" and put in "stronger" groups in the first couple votes

 

[bac2therac]

That is analysis on 1 axis. You take it to another level if you make prediction on the amount of at large teams.

3 Big 10 schools in and 4 ACC schools out of the final 11 plus 2 WCC who will meet in the conference tourney, some will play their way out anyhow

 

[Zak57]

I dont get why OOC SOS is so important. It should just be overall SOS. Who cares whether the hard or easy games you play are in conference or OOC? Our SOS is in the 30s overall that's more than fine

Yes but it is flawed either way. How do you know how strong your conference really is if you just look at games played in conference. You need some idea on how they competed OOC to get an idea. The problem is teams get better as the season goes on like we did so it's not fair that way either.

 

[bac2therac]

You could just be "unlucky" and put in "stronger" groups in the first couple votes

I believe that they pick their top 8 strongest....so everyone is starting off strong with the schools they think deserve it. I know what you are saying, you could get pinched out in some crazy scenerio. I dont have much of a problem with the way the grouping worked out...we made it out of the first group and cant argue about the 4 picked ahead although note that these selections were made before the Michigan result last night

 

[bac2therac]

We are hoping the loud voice(s) in the room are banging the table for "big wins" and that the meeker committee members are the ones pointing to NET and overall record.

I think you get a little of both there. I think wins against the field is a top criteria and RU does well there. I dont like that its even split between smaller conference and majors...and that the A10 commish is on the committee

 

[G- RUnit]

neither have a Q4 loss, an extra Q3 and a horrific out of conference sos, both of them also have a non conference win of note or two and Rutgers

Yes but it is flawed either way. How do you know how strong your conference really is if you just look at games played in conference. You need some idea on how they competed OOC to get an idea. The problem is teams get better as the season goes on like we did so it's not fair that way either.

That’s always been my argument as BIG plays a 20 game schedule. We play the SHU. We play in the Gavitt games and the ACC Challenge. We should play Princeton but our total SOS is perfectly fine.

 

[bmtRUgrad]

3/4 update

10 SEEDS

• NOTRE DAME
• MIAMI
• XAVIER
• WYOMING

11 SEEDS

• NORTH TEXAS*
• WAKE FOREST
• RUTGERS
• SAN FRANCISCO

12 SEEDS

• NORTH CAROLINA/INDIANA
• MICHIGAN/BYU
• SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
• IONA*

LAST FOUR IN

• INDIANA
• BYU
• MICHIGAN
• NORTH CAROLINA

FIRST FOUR OUT

• SMU
• MEMPHIS
• FLORIDA
• VIRGINA COMMONWEALTH

NEXT FOUR OUT

• VIRGINIA TECH
• LOYOLA CHICAGO
• OREGON
• OKLAHOMA

Michigan falls all the way from the 10 line to first four games. The 13 loss total is too excessive to put any either. They MUST beat Ohio State to remain in the field heading into the Big 10 tournament.

Rutgers moves up a run to 6th team in but hardly safe. A loss to Penn State puts them on the cut line either way. A win vs Penn State would not move RU up much in itself as RU's movement will be determined by the performance of bubble schools around them.

Oregon took a costly loss at Washington and now must reach the Pac 12 finals to even move close to the cut line. Not sure even a win over Arizona would be enough. They might have to win it all

Fairly safe to say everyone above the 10 seed line is lock or virtual lock....yes even Creighton and likely even San Diego State after their double OT win last night....maybe 90%

Basically 11 open spots now and yes thats not being conservative, its 11 spots open...there are 5 ACC bubbles. While there are probably 24 schools competing for those 11 spots, its realistically only about 17 schools for 11 bids.

I like it, although it seems most have us at best as play-in game now.

 

[kcg88]

MVC quarterfinal day. I think we want Illinois State to upset UNI here. We want Loyola to win the whole thing so that'd give them an easier opponent next round. If Loyola beats Bradley but then loses to UNI I could see them managing to hang around the bubble, though I'd have them squarely out.

 

[fatsam98]

MVC quarterfinal day. I think we want Illinois State to upset UNI here. We want Loyola to win the whole thing so that'd give them an easier opponent next round. If Loyola beats Bradley but then loses to UNI I could see them managing to hang around the bubble, though I'd have them squarely out.

Not likely but hopefully they both lose today.

 

[Big boy stan]

Is it allowed to have 3 (or even 4) BIG teams in the first four? I know there are rules or at least recommendations against playing within your conference in the first round. Could this lead to one of Ind, Mich, RU getting left out to allow a non-BIG into the final 4? Or would they just swap a BIG team for another conference even if they deserve to be seated higher

 

[bac2therac]

Is it allowed to have 3 (or even 4) BIG teams in the first four? I know there are rules or at least recommendations against playing within your conference in the first round. Could this lead to one of Ind, Mich, RU getting left out to allow a non-BIG into the final 4? Or would they just swap a BIG team for another conference even if they deserve to be seated higher

no rule but it almost assuredly will not happen. They will not leave a team out just to avoid a matchup, it would work out where another school is seeded higher

 

[bac2therac]

MVC quarterfinal day. I think we want Illinois State to upset UNI here. We want Loyola to win the whole thing so that'd give them an easier opponent next round. If Loyola beats Bradley but then loses to UNI I could see them managing to hang around the bubble, though I'd have them squarely out.

their resume is trash, all they have is the net and a win over San Fran who is a 10 or 11 seed. Right off the bat, the AAC and A10 bubbles have better resumes....Memphis/SMU/VCU

 

[G- RUnit]

Is it allowed to have 3 (or even 4) BIG teams in the first four? I know there are rules or at least recommendations against playing within your conference in the first round. Could this lead to one of Ind, Mich, RU getting left out to allow a non-BIG into the final 4? Or would they just swap a BIG team for another conference even if they deserve to be seated higher

I gotta think no way in hell that happens. I could see Indy and Michigan possibly. Also wonder if we can sneak ahead of MSU in the B1G pecking order.

 

[kcg88]

Not bubble related but Big South #1 seed Longwood is only up 5 against #9 NC A&T at the under-8:00 of the second half if you're looking for some daytime hoops. ESPN+.

 

[Scangg]

I believe that they pick their top 8 strongest....so everyone is starting off strong with the schools they think deserve it. I know what you are saying, you could get pinched out in some crazy scenerio. I dont have much of a problem with the way the grouping worked out...we made it out of the first group and cant argue about the 4 picked ahead although note that these selections were made before the Michigan result last night

You're right... I guess I just wonder if when we see the "head scratcher" type team in or left out each year if it was due to people changing the way they are voting after the first couple rounds instead of continuing to vote for the same teams they initially felt deserved to get in

 

[kcg88]

Not bubble related but Big South #1 seed Longwood is only up 5 against #9 NC A&T at the under-8:00 of the second half if you're looking for some daytime hoops. ESPN+.

NC A&T takes the lead... Could get our first NIT ticket punched today (Longwood)

EDIT: 57-57 with 3:00 to play. I f***ing love March.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You like watching LongWood

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

because they gave the committee reasons to leave them out...and there are and after they keep getting passed up, the influence of the other committee members starts to make sense

This system makes me nervous. Do we know the backgrounds of the other committee members besides the Southland guy? Feels like all it takes is a guy who has something against us like Palm and it would be an uphill battle going in.

 

[bac2therac]

I gotta think no way in hell that happens. I could see Indy and Michigan possibly. Also wonder if we can sneak ahead of MSU in the B1G pecking order.

virtually no chance of passing Michigan state unless we make the finals and they lose first round

 

[kcg88]

You like watching LongWood

The Big South tournament has been absurdly entertaining. 3 out of 4 games yesterday went to OT. And now #1 seed on the ropes today.

 

[needmorecowbell]

this pretty much sums up my thoughts.

18-13…(beat PSU, get double bye , lose to Iowa) .trouble , on pins and needles

I believe Rutgers is close to a lock in this scenario. Top 4 team in the big ten is getting in. Plus Iowa is hot. My fear is we don’t get the double bye and lose to a bottom Big Ten team. That would be trouble.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Lunardi today still has:

Last four byes as: UNC, San Francisco, Michigan, and Wyoming
Last four in: Xavier, Rutgers, Memphis, and Loyola
First four out: Indiana, BYU, SMU, Virginia Tech
Next four out: VCU, Florida, Oregon, Dayton

Longwood cruises in OT by a 16-2 score. Wow.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

virtually no chance of passing Michigan state unless we make the finals and they lose first round

That seems a little extreme. Hypothetically, if they lost Sunday and we won, we’d be 2 games ahead of them in the BIG standings and tied with them in the total loss column. Now I understand that they played a harder OOC but they also played an easier unbalanced conference schedule (no Purdue the second time). And 2 games against 4 of the 5 bottom ranked teams. I would think if we then went on to win a game in the BIG and they lost - we’d be in similar seed territory. If we won 2 we’d possibly be ahead? Can’t imagine 3 wins in the tourney would be required.

 

[bac2therac]

That seems a little extreme. Hypothetically, if they lost Sunday and we won, we’d be 2 games ahead of them in the BIG standings and tied with them in the total loss column. Now I understand that they played a harder OOC but they also played an easier unbalanced conference schedule (no Purdue the second time). And 2 games against 4 of the 5 bottom ranked teams. I would think if we then went on to win a game in the BIG and they lost - we’d be in similar seed territory. If we won 2 we’d possibly be ahead? Can’t imagine 3 wins in the tourney would be required.

RU has little chance of moving beyond a 9, MSU is at worst a 9

Big 10 standing mean zero and they mean even less than zero when RU has a net of 75 vs a net of 40-45 for msu and they have decent wins too

 

[Shelby65]

I dont get why OOC SOS is so important. It should just be overall SOS. Who cares whether the hard or easy games you play are in conference or OOC? Our SOS is in the 30s overall that's more than fine

Because it’s weak to pad your win totals and offset conference losses with jv opponents, regardless of your own conference’s quality. And losing those games is a bad look, obviously.