none of those Big 12 schools are going to be able to overcome those loss totals unless they reach the Big 12 finals...that would include winning their final games then winning 2 games including beating top 3 schools in league back to back
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23
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none of those Big 12 schools are going to be able to overcome those loss totals unless they reach the Big 12 finals...that would include winning their final games then winning 2 games including beating top 3 schools in league back to back
Something to consider. According to Bart the last time there was this much separation between the #1 conference and #3 was in 2013. The B10 that year got 7 out of 12 teams including 2 with 8-10 records.
Just some poor decision making from Wyoming....why not foul..you just let them take 20 plus seconds off the clock and they drained a shot, the previous 2 possession went to a stiff inside...wtf why
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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San Diego State affirms their spot in the field, not a lock because they still have 2 games and the MWC tourney but much better positioned. Wyoming is hurt for sure, I have no idea how Palm has them as a 8. See how the numbers break out overnight to see each school sits after tonight and if the Aztecs win was enough to move them out of the last 4 in line
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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Wyoming safely in imo. Most had them as a 9 coming into tonight and its not like sd st is garbage. SD st is also a q1 loss, so not an awful loss for them
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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they are not safely in..they have a game at UNLV and a home game with Fresno lose both and they are out.
no they arent, they have 2 quality home wins vs Boise and Colorado St and that is it. their resume isnt as good as you think and their net dropped over 10 points in a week. Lose 2 and out, Not saying they are going to do that but its possible...plus schools on the 9 seed are not locked yet like TCU
their bpi is 100..very telling and their Sagarin is 79
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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You're sorta both right. They're safely in but not yet a lock. Things broke very well for the MWC with Fresno and Utah State fading hard.
Wyoming is closest to the danger zone. They're probably fine if they drop another game but let's be honest the committee often does have a bias against the mid majors. Not impossible to see them getting left out because their only wins over tournament teams are Colorado State and Boise State. Northern Iowa getting the MVC bid would help them.
Wyoming is closest to the danger zone. They're probably fine if they drop another game but let's be honest the committee often does have a bias against the mid majors. Not impossible to see them getting left out because their only wins over tournament teams are Colorado State and Boise State. Northern Iowa getting the MVC bid would help them.
This is a great thread. Bac and the supporting cast do a great job .
The defense that baits opponents into shooting threes sucks now that people realized that shooting lots of threes is actually good. Like 50% of attempts against Cuse are three pointers.
Arguably still a viable strategy if they were able to create turnovers like they used to but now they're whatever the opposite of "long and athletic" is.
My take is just to be extremely conservative until its beyond obvious.
Look at Xavier. They were locked in previously. Now at 17-11 go to St Johns and finish home vs Georgetown. Yes its highly unlikely that they lose at home to the Hoyas but if they do they are 17-13....lose again in the Big East tourney and they are 17-14 and out.
Last year UCLA was considered safely in by many and look what happened by seasons end..first 4..were they the last team in?
Last year Colorado State was 18-6 and missed the field. However last year the Nets of the Mountain West schools were not as good generally in the 40s and 50s
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Can anyone legitimately explain Kansas St 8 spot jump up, 69 to 61, in the NET with a loss to Texas Tech, who didn't move in the.loss, 68-73? The only thing I can think of is 60-70 is bunched up really close and a good loss moved them that high.
I see they had an offensive efficiency rating in the 120s, but they shot 11-25 44% from 2, 10-25 40% from 3, 21-50 is 42%, 5 offensive rebounds, 16-20 FTs, 68 pts on 50 shots? Did they unlock a cheat code in the NET?
USF(AAC) off moved from 241 to 239, Home Record 6-9 a Q4 to Q3
Marshall(CUSA) off moved from 240 to 241, Home Record 6-8 a Q3 to Q4
I see they had an offensive efficiency rating in the 120s, but they shot 11-25 44% from 2, 10-25 40% from 3, 21-50 is 42%, 5 offensive rebounds, 16-20 FTs, 68 pts on 50 shots? Did they unlock a cheat code in the NET?
USF(AAC) off moved from 241 to 239, Home Record 6-9 a Q4 to Q3
Marshall(CUSA) off moved from 240 to 241, Home Record 6-8 a Q3 to Q4
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Honestly the realistic bubble is kind of down to:
Michigan
Indiana
Rutgers
Memphis
SMU
BYU
VCU
I see three spots for those seven teams (I'm building in one bid thief). One will go to SMU or Memphis.
Sure if Wake Forest loses at home to NC State or Miami loses at BC then we can have a conversation but there's no realistic back-in scenario for Rutgers. If we're 11-9 then Indiana and an AAC team are ahead of us in the pecking order and I think at that point BYU moves ahead too. So even if Michigan/VCU lost out there wouldn't be a spot for us.
Michigan
Indiana
Rutgers
Memphis
SMU
BYU
VCU
I see three spots for those seven teams (I'm building in one bid thief). One will go to SMU or Memphis.
Sure if Wake Forest loses at home to NC State or Miami loses at BC then we can have a conversation but there's no realistic back-in scenario for Rutgers. If we're 11-9 then Indiana and an AAC team are ahead of us in the pecking order and I think at that point BYU moves ahead too. So even if Michigan/VCU lost out there wouldn't be a spot for us.
But if three spots get stolen like last year (unlikely, I know) there’s a chance for none of these teams to get in right?
Byu will play San Fran in wcc quarters...a loss for byu and they are not getting it. San Fran is no sure thing if they lose to BYU but in better shape
It depends where. In the ACC or Big East a random team winning might knock out Miami/Wake/UNC or Creighton, assuming they fall in an early round. If Florida won the SEC tournament though it would take a spot from one of these teams.
Wyoming fells 6 spots for losing a close Q1 game at home
Beware Cowboys with a 45 NET and a game at UNLV..lose that and its last four in line
Honestly St Bonnies has the better resume and wins but the NET is wacked out.
Vcu has a thin resume. They beat Davidson..wow. Still not understanding why some are high on them
Interestingly Lunardi who is usually high on propping up the A10 isnt really touting these schools this year
So just from looking at other brackets on the Matrix and reading tweets, i find two camps of Bracketologists.
First you have guys like Lunardi and Bracketville Dave who tend to be show me who you beat and less metrics and NET driven. Who you beat in Q1 and 2 matter more than just having 8 or 9 Q1 wins against Fresno St types.
Then you have guys like heavy metric guys like Brad and I think Warriner and actually a good chunk of the Matrix and theyve very successful in the Matrix too. They tend to value overall NET and what the Quad records are.
Both sides have been successful so no side is really right. Its a matter of philosophy. For me I side with Joe and Dave. My personal biggest thing to look at is wins against the field. Thats why at 19-14 or 19-13 RU will be a mortal lock even with the bulky loss total.
Obviously you need to blend all aspects to judge high mid majors who dont have the opportunities. Last year I missed on Drake who won the regular season in the MVC but Loyola won the final. I had Louisville in and Drake got the bid. Committee will tend to reward a school who won their conference regularc season. Loyola didnt win the MVC this year and thats why its highly unlikely they get a bid. Murray State will get a bid. Davidson is probably 70/30 and North Texas 30/70
First you have guys like Lunardi and Bracketville Dave who tend to be show me who you beat and less metrics and NET driven. Who you beat in Q1 and 2 matter more than just having 8 or 9 Q1 wins against Fresno St types.
Then you have guys like heavy metric guys like Brad and I think Warriner and actually a good chunk of the Matrix and theyve very successful in the Matrix too. They tend to value overall NET and what the Quad records are.
Both sides have been successful so no side is really right. Its a matter of philosophy. For me I side with Joe and Dave. My personal biggest thing to look at is wins against the field. Thats why at 19-14 or 19-13 RU will be a mortal lock even with the bulky loss total.
Obviously you need to blend all aspects to judge high mid majors who dont have the opportunities. Last year I missed on Drake who won the regular season in the MVC but Loyola won the final. I had Louisville in and Drake got the bid. Committee will tend to reward a school who won their conference regularc season. Loyola didnt win the MVC this year and thats why its highly unlikely they get a bid. Murray State will get a bid. Davidson is probably 70/30 and North Texas 30/70
Jerry Palm is in his own class and I do actually respect since he was one of the early ones. He bases alot on historical data and some of those principles I think are important...wins above 500 and road wins especially. There is no reason to put a 17-15 school in because its never happened. I think the worst was Georgia at 16-14 with the toughest SOS ever.
He has Florida in the field and im having a hard time figuring out why
He has Florida in the field and im having a hard time figuring out why
Bubble watch tonight...
7pm, Oklahoma vs West Virginia. Oklahoma probably done already though
8pm, TCU vs Kansas. TCU then goes to Kansas and West Virginia so root for them to lose all 3
8:30pm, Michigan vs Mich State, go Spartans. The Wolverines are 4.5 point favorites
8:30pm, Florida at Vandy, Vandy actually favored by 1.5
8:30pm, VCU vs St Bonnie's. Not sure it really matters that much but whoever wins root for them to lose any remaining games
9:00pm, Virginia Tech vs Louisville, a loss to the Cards has to kill any hopes the Hokies have of an at large.
7pm, Oklahoma vs West Virginia. Oklahoma probably done already though
8pm, TCU vs Kansas. TCU then goes to Kansas and West Virginia so root for them to lose all 3
8:30pm, Michigan vs Mich State, go Spartans. The Wolverines are 4.5 point favorites
8:30pm, Florida at Vandy, Vandy actually favored by 1.5
8:30pm, VCU vs St Bonnie's. Not sure it really matters that much but whoever wins root for them to lose any remaining games
9:00pm, Virginia Tech vs Louisville, a loss to the Cards has to kill any hopes the Hokies have of an at large.
The main difference VCU is loved more St Bonaventure
VCU 3-2 3-4, 6-6, Q3 10-1, Q4 4-0
SBA 3-3 3-3, 6-6, Q3 4-1, Q4 9-0
Q3s aren't usually big but 12 Q3 wins for UNC and.10 Q3s wins for ND are the reasons they are probably getting in with a weaker Q1/2, it makes sense why VCU is more highly thought of than SBA. Teams have gotten in with strong Q3 record.
update after last night...
9 SEEDS
10 SEEDS
11 SEEDS
12 SEEDS
LAST FOUR BYES
MIAMI
WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN
SAN FRANCISCO
LAST FOUR IN
RUTGERS
BYU
INDIANA
NORTH CAROLINA
FIRST FOUR OUT
SMU
OREGON
MEMPHIS
LOYOLA CHICAGO
NEXT FOUR OUT
SAINT BONAVENURE
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
San Diego State moves into a pretty good spot with the win at Wyoming. NET up to 26 and no loss outside Q2. Not a lock but pretty good shape..9 seed for now
Meanwhile hold your horses everyone on Wyoming.....NET down to 45 on a thin resume...remember Colorado State was left out last year from the MWC at 18-6. Dropping to a 10 seed they are one spot ahead of Miami on the last 4 four byes
Rutgers moves to last team in the field. Indiana slides into the first four. UNC moves a notch ahead of Indiana to avoid an all Big 10 first four matchup.
9 SEEDS
- XAVIER
- TCU
- NOTRE DAME
- SAN DIEGO STATE
10 SEEDS
- DAVIDSON
- CREIGHTON
- WYOMING
- MIAMI
11 SEEDS
- NORTH TEXAS
- WAKE FOREST
- MICHIGAN
- SAN FRANCISCO
12 SEEDS
- SOUTH DAKOTA STATE
- IONA
- NORTH CAROLINA/RUTGERS
- INDIANA/BYU
LAST FOUR BYES
MIAMI
WAKE FOREST
MICHIGAN
SAN FRANCISCO
LAST FOUR IN
RUTGERS
BYU
INDIANA
NORTH CAROLINA
FIRST FOUR OUT
SMU
OREGON
MEMPHIS
LOYOLA CHICAGO
NEXT FOUR OUT
SAINT BONAVENURE
VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
FLORIDA
VIRGINIA TECH
San Diego State moves into a pretty good spot with the win at Wyoming. NET up to 26 and no loss outside Q2. Not a lock but pretty good shape..9 seed for now
Meanwhile hold your horses everyone on Wyoming.....NET down to 45 on a thin resume...remember Colorado State was left out last year from the MWC at 18-6. Dropping to a 10 seed they are one spot ahead of Miami on the last 4 four byes
Rutgers moves to last team in the field. Indiana slides into the first four. UNC moves a notch ahead of Indiana to avoid an all Big 10 first four matchup.
Q3 wins are the reason a team like Syracuse got in and UCLA got a play-in bid last year
Last 6 in,
Syracuse 1-7, 6-1, 1/2 7-8, Q3 6-1, 13-9
Utah St 2-5, 2-1, 1/2 4-6, Q3 7-2, 11-8
Play-in
Drake 1-2, 5-0,.1/2 6-2, Q3 6-2, 12-4
Wich St 2-1, 2-3, 1/2 4-4, Q3 6-1, 10-5
UCLA 2-6, 3-3, 1/2 5-9, Q3 8-0, 13-9
MSU 5-10, 4-2, 1/2 9-12, Q3 2-0, 11-12
2018-19
Last 6 in,
Fla 4-12, 4-1, 1/2 8-13, Q3 6-2, 14-15
OSU 4-10, 5-3, 1/2 9-13, Q3 5-1, 14-14
Play-in
Belmont 2-2, 3-1, 1/2 5-3, Q3 3-2, 8-5
Temple 2-6, 6-2, 1/2 8-8, Q3 7-1, 15-9
ASU 3-3, 8-3, 1/2 11-6, Q3 5-2, 16-8, 2 Q4 losses
SJU 5-7, 5-3, 1/2 10-10, Q3 3-2, 13-12
Let's steal the schedule guy Nate Oats has at Alabama, 2 straight seasons no Q4s
Last 6 in,
Syracuse 1-7, 6-1, 1/2 7-8, Q3 6-1, 13-9
Utah St 2-5, 2-1, 1/2 4-6, Q3 7-2, 11-8
Play-in
Drake 1-2, 5-0,.1/2 6-2, Q3 6-2, 12-4
Wich St 2-1, 2-3, 1/2 4-4, Q3 6-1, 10-5
UCLA 2-6, 3-3, 1/2 5-9, Q3 8-0, 13-9
MSU 5-10, 4-2, 1/2 9-12, Q3 2-0, 11-12
2018-19
Last 6 in,
Fla 4-12, 4-1, 1/2 8-13, Q3 6-2, 14-15
OSU 4-10, 5-3, 1/2 9-13, Q3 5-1, 14-14
Play-in
Belmont 2-2, 3-1, 1/2 5-3, Q3 3-2, 8-5
Temple 2-6, 6-2, 1/2 8-8, Q3 7-1, 15-9
ASU 3-3, 8-3, 1/2 11-6, Q3 5-2, 16-8, 2 Q4 losses
SJU 5-7, 5-3, 1/2 10-10, Q3 3-2, 13-12
Let's steal the schedule guy Nate Oats has at Alabama, 2 straight seasons no Q4s
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Alabama also went 10-3 against a hellacious non-conference schedule. If they lost to Gonzaga, Houston, and Baylor (which is not hard to imagine!) then they're 16-13 and on the bubble right now. If Rutgers had beaten Lafayatte, UMass, and Depaul (also not hard to imagine) then we're 19-9 and almost a lock.
Actually winning games is a lot more important than how you schedule.
So are the first four / last four / whatever in reverse order? I.e does Rutgers being on the top of this list mean they are the literal last team in? Or are they the top of that group?
