We have to win at minimum 2 games. If we lose to Indiana it will likely be 3
BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I’ll answer - he thinks we need to win our next 3 which might be right
Most others think if we win 2 out of 3 we’re probably in but it’s not a sure thing by any stretch.
I fear that because I think we lose tonight and beat Penn state . So to me best case will be a win and in situation in the first round of the big ten tournament .
As a college hoops fan, I enjoy your work but I'm pretty confident you're wrong on Michigan. If they split the next two, they're in and I'd be 90+% confident that they'd avoid Dayton.
First, there is no minimum games above .500 requirement. The Jerry Palm line he recites is factually wrong -- Villanova also made it in 1992 at 2 games above .500. Michigan State made it last season at two games above .500 with terrible metrics. But if you want to play the 4 games above .500 game, it's worth noting that if Michigan split Iowa/OSU and lost in Indianapolis, it would finish 17-14 but it had its easiest game all year cancelled due to COVID (at home against Fort Wayne). I have a hard time believing that the difference between making the tournament and not is they didn't make up a home game against a sub 200 NET team.
Michigan also has metrics way above most bubble teams -- top 30 on KenPom, Sagarin and 31 in NET. Most bubble teams are in the 40s/50s. But I don't think metrics is the be all/end all.
However, the main reason I'm very confident Michigan makes it is schedule. Michigan played by far the toughest conference schedule of any conference team (their single plays included Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State), and it has the toughest non-conference schedule in the B1G which is why it has an overall strength of schedule around 5th nationally. And if there is one principle which always holds true it is teams that play challenging schedules get in, while teams that load up on cupcakes in the non-conference stay home. Michigan only played 3 Q4 games, for comparison Indiana played 7, and Rutgers played 6.
If Indiana and Rutgers miss it, it will have less to do with lack of good wins (IU) or bad losses (Rutgers) then their non-conference schedules were terrible and beneath what schools of that caliber should be doing.
I'm not kyk but 2-1 is probably fine but it has to be the "right" 2-1. If we beat Indiana (Q1 road win) and Penn State (avoid a Q3 home loss) then that's enough, I think. Any other combination of 2-1 probably isn't enough since it would mean we either miss out on the road win or take a bad loss.
If we lose to Indiana then I think we need to beat Penn State and win two in Indy to make up for it.
If we lose to Indiana then I think we need to beat Penn State and win two in Indy to make up for it.
First thanks for following along and appreciate the discussion but where I am wrong. I actually am more favorable to Michigan that most and agree with most of your post. I said if they lose their next 2 they are in trouble, which they are, that puts them at 16-14 and means they will have to win 2 in the Big 10 tourney, 17-15 is just 2 games above 500 and schools are not going to get selected...at 18-15 they have a better shot although again that is still below the usual safe mark of 4 games above. 500. So not a lock there either but I would think they still go.
MSU made it 2 games above 500 last year because it was a Covid season period. So knock that one out. Nova was the only one 30 years ago in the height of the Big East.
3 games above 500 yes they should go, 2 games above no and quite frankly a 17-15 Michigan does not deserve to go, their wins are not that overwhelmingly that they are irresistible
Indiana has three impressive wins this year:
Ohio State just coming off a COVID pause (Indiana was their second game back, their first was going to OT at Nebraska)
Notre Dame in an obvious letdown spot (they beat Kentucky at home in their last game)
Purdue in an obvious letdown spot (they won in 2OT at Illinois in their last game)
I am going to be so bummed if we lose tonight. (To be fair, we wouldn't exactly qualify as a 4th impressive win for them)
Ohio State just coming off a COVID pause (Indiana was their second game back, their first was going to OT at Nebraska)
Notre Dame in an obvious letdown spot (they beat Kentucky at home in their last game)
Purdue in an obvious letdown spot (they won in 2OT at Illinois in their last game)
I am going to be so bummed if we lose tonight. (To be fair, we wouldn't exactly qualify as a 4th impressive win for them)
Ah my bad, I read your post as "cannot lose the last 2" implying that they had to win both.
I totally agree that 2 games above .500 is major problems.
I think they would need to reach at least Saturday, but that puts them in Dayton at best and they need to make final to feel safe.
The Rutgers-IU game tonight is huge though I don't think its as simple as winner, loser out. The problem for Rutgers if they lose is they have a game Saturday which does no good (at home vs PSU is a lose you're done game), and then depending on the draw, the Thursday game would do them no favors (playing Maryland same deal). Ideally if you lose today, you'd want to face Indiana or Michigan on Thursday because that's a Q1 game.
I think RU needs to win both. Then we will see if they need another one, may or may not. With Michigan and Indiana also in the mix, those are peers you are competing with. Looks like in that scenerio RU at 12-8 would avoid playing either but Mich/Indy might have a matchup that could eliminate one
If I had to guess I would say its very very unlikely for all 3 to make it. Probably 2.
and yes your scenario about losing tonight and getting Michigan or Indy in the 8/9 also could work out. All 3 schools have a different kind of resume. Indiana has the cleanest but lacking big wins, RU the messiest but with big wins and Michigan the one who needs to worry bout the losses the most but has an outstanding sos and a solid quality win number now
I think all 3 are possible First 4 contenders. RU almost certainly there unless they can get to 20 wins and the Big 10 semis, they should bump up a bit
If I had to guess I would say its very very unlikely for all 3 to make it. Probably 2.
and yes your scenario about losing tonight and getting Michigan or Indy in the 8/9 also could work out. All 3 schools have a different kind of resume. Indiana has the cleanest but lacking big wins, RU the messiest but with big wins and Michigan the one who needs to worry bout the losses the most but has an outstanding sos and a solid quality win number now
I think all 3 are possible First 4 contenders. RU almost certainly there unless they can get to 20 wins and the Big 10 semis, they should bump up a bit
good point, just a Q3 win for them, although they do look beyond that. They arent beating Purdue again and then a matchup with Michigan or RU in the Big 10 tourney, if they lose that I dont think they go. Could Indy win tonight but RU beats them in the Big 10 tourney and then ru loses to Wisky in the quarters in a close game...Indy 19-13 vs RU 18-14
does anyone know the tiebreak for RU Mich and Indy if we are all 11-9 or if its just RU/Mich....I think RU gets the tiebreak because we beat Wisky, in that case its a disadvantage for us. MSU is in that mix too.
A
anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
Guest
This isnt my opinion, moreso the opinion of guys like brad wachtel. We need to go 3-0 imo.
first, there is zero conceivable way that we get in the tourney without beating IU and PSU unless we pretty much make the big ten championship game.
this is a guess but if we beat IU and PSU then lose first game of big ten tourney to lets say IU, we have probably a 33% chance of making the tourney. If we lose one of the next 2 id say we have a 5% chance of making the tourney
Last 6 years, 21-22 to 16-17
NEC 30th, 28th*, 28th, 30th, 30th, 30th (29.6)
Patriot 28th, 14th*, 25th, 23rd, 27th, 22rd (25.0)
AEast 26th, 20th*, 23rd, 26th, 24th, 24th (24.6)
Ivy 19th, DNP*, 16th, 14th, 20th, 15th (16.8)
MAAC 18th, 23rd*, 22nd, 28th, 21st, 20th (21.8)
Colonial 15th, 17th*, 17th, 19th, 16th, 12th (15.8)
There is a huge gap between scheduling 6 we did, and 1 each conference,
NEC(avg 280 NET), Patriot(avg 266) and AE(avg 256)
against middle, Ivy (209), MAAC (203), Colonial (187) or even MAC (217)
4th Lehigh #300(Pat), 5th Merrimack #294(NEC), last NJIT #331(AE), 7th Lafayette #317(Pat), 9th Maine #353(AE) and Last CCSU #345(NEC).
It was a blunder to schedule based on last year's teams records and conference rankings. UMass(9-9) finished 4th 20-21, Depaul and Clemson out of our hands, and @SHU. Not sure who was a part of the staff that thought this was a good balanced schedule, but they need to get better analytics guys in deciding these things. The coach signs off on the schedule, but he trust his people to give him a quality schedule. You don't want to be left out based on an off the court decision of a weak non conference scheduling. The players have no control of that, just what they do on the court. A couple more Q3s wins would look good.right now over 2 bottom 300s wins we have.
NEC 30th, 28th*, 28th, 30th, 30th, 30th (29.6)
Patriot 28th, 14th*, 25th, 23rd, 27th, 22rd (25.0)
AEast 26th, 20th*, 23rd, 26th, 24th, 24th (24.6)
Ivy 19th, DNP*, 16th, 14th, 20th, 15th (16.8)
MAAC 18th, 23rd*, 22nd, 28th, 21st, 20th (21.8)
Colonial 15th, 17th*, 17th, 19th, 16th, 12th (15.8)
There is a huge gap between scheduling 6 we did, and 1 each conference,
NEC(avg 280 NET), Patriot(avg 266) and AE(avg 256)
against middle, Ivy (209), MAAC (203), Colonial (187) or even MAC (217)
4th Lehigh #300(Pat), 5th Merrimack #294(NEC), last NJIT #331(AE), 7th Lafayette #317(Pat), 9th Maine #353(AE) and Last CCSU #345(NEC).
It was a blunder to schedule based on last year's teams records and conference rankings. UMass(9-9) finished 4th 20-21, Depaul and Clemson out of our hands, and @SHU. Not sure who was a part of the staff that thought this was a good balanced schedule, but they need to get better analytics guys in deciding these things. The coach signs off on the schedule, but he trust his people to give him a quality schedule. You don't want to be left out based on an off the court decision of a weak non conference scheduling. The players have no control of that, just what they do on the court. A couple more Q3s wins would look good.right now over 2 bottom 300s wins we have.
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full update 3/2
1 SEEDS
12 SEEDS
LAST FOUR IN
FIRST FOUR OUT
NEXT FOUR OUT
1 SEEDS
- GONZAGA*
- ARIZONA*
- BAYLOR*
- AUBURN*
- KENTUCKY
- KANSAS
- WISCONSIN*
- DUKE*
- VILLANOVA
- TEXAS TECH
- PURDUE
- TENNESSEE
- ILLINOIS
- PROVIDENCE*
- CONNECTICUT
- UCLA
- HOUSTON *
- ALABAMA
- ARKANSAS
- TEXAS
- LSU
- OHIO STATE
- SAINT MARY'S
- IOWA STATE
- IOWA
- MARQUETTE
- BOISE STATE*
- USC
- COLORADO STATE
- MURRAY STATE*
- MICHIGAN STATE
- TCU
- SETON HALL
- XAVIER
- NOTRE DAME
- SAN DIEGO STATE
- DAVIDSON*
- CREIGHTON
- MIAMI
- MICHIGAN
- NORTH TEXAS*
- WYOMING
- WAKE FOREST
- SAN FRANCISCO
12 SEEDS
- NORTH CAROLINA/RUTGERS
- INDIANA/BYU
- SOUTH DAKOTA STATE*
- IONA*
- CHATTANOOGA*
- NEW MEXICO STATE*
- TOLEDO*
- NORTHERN IOWA*
- VERMONT*
- TEXAS STATE*
- PRINCETON*
- MONTANA STATE*
- COLGATE*
- UNC WILMINGTON*
- JACKSONVILLE STATE*
- CLEVELAND STATE*
- LONGWOOD*
- LONG BEACH STATE*
- ALCORN STATE*/BRYANT*
- NICOLLS STATE* /NORFOLK STATE*
LAST FOUR IN
- RUTGERS
- BYU
- INDIANA
- NORTH CAROLINA
FIRST FOUR OUT
- SMU
- OREGON
- MEMPHIS
- FLORIDA
NEXT FOUR OUT
- VIRGINIA COMMONWEALTH
- VIRGINIA TECH
- LOYOLA CHICAGO
- OKLAHOMA
I agree. Unfortunately I think the loser of this game is on the outside looking in. I hope I'm wrong. The stress levels of both fanbases will be at 100%.
You’re not wrong, they absolutely will be on the outside looking in.
But regardless both teams will have a chance to get in by getting to the B1G Tournament Semis
The typical rutgers thing to do is look awesome tonight with a huge victory . And then lay and egg against hated PSU on senior day. This could happen folks
the issue is that the Northeast schools are complete trash. Stop scheduling these schools from these conferences.....better to schedule Bumblebee State from the midwest or south rather than the absolute garbage the northeast schools are producing and those schools may actually be motivated to knock off another local school. Pike is love with the awful Northeast and America East
there is no excuse at this level in the Big 10 for Hobbs and Pikiell to not know scheduling metrics..they better get on the phone and have Brad Wachtel advise them
If N. Texas or UAB and Davidson/A10 winner are AQ,
they will be top 12 seeds, not 11 and 10
5 Houston 12 N.Texas/CUSA winner
5 Alabama 12 Davidson/A10 winner
Keeping to the 2 play in games at 11 seed
They have moved higher ranked AQ down to the 12 seed in the last few tourneys, Murray St comes to mind a few years ago. NCAA loves the 5/12 upsets.
they will be top 12 seeds, not 11 and 10
5 Houston 12 N.Texas/CUSA winner
5 Alabama 12 Davidson/A10 winner
Keeping to the 2 play in games at 11 seed
They have moved higher ranked AQ down to the 12 seed in the last few tourneys, Murray St comes to mind a few years ago. NCAA loves the 5/12 upsets.
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I'm not convinced the ACC teams are nearly as safe as they are projected (Miami, UNC, Wake, ND).
Except for UNC, these schools played terrible non-conference schedules and fattened up on how bad the ACC is. Even their Q1 wins are flimsy (outside of Duke), as they are lower Q1 wins (i.e. beating NIT teams on the road).
I'd be stunned if the First Four doesn't include one of the Wake-Miami-UNC trio, and I think there's a good chance that one of them is left out altogether.
The danger here is if Duke trips up, this has all the makings of a bid-stealer in the conference tournament. None of the other teams are unbeatable, and if Duke goes down, I can't say I'd be stunned if we see the likes of Virginia, VT or even Syracuse stealing the auto bid.
I’d be perfectly fine with Princeton!! Checks all the boxes and good prep back in the day for Georgetown and now slower paced teams like Wiscy. I have a soft spot for our former A10 brethren. Didn’t think we would lose to UMass. Temple, GW or St. Joe’s fit the bill. Delaware. Throw a life raft to FDU? St. Pete’s and Monmouth? Throw in Seton Hall, B1G East and ACC Challenge and I suppose if you want a preseason tourney somewhere. Can it be that easy? Local teams way more interesting and save some $$$.
I agree....see NC State a few years back, Louisville last year in a shortened year although Cuse did get a bid with a late push and a meh resume.
Miami has the best wins and enough of them to get in but the worse metrics and 3 Q3 losses. UNC has only the win over Michigan and Wake has the wins over UNC and ND and the cleanest profile. How much worth will the Miami road win at Duke have...should get a lot but I think a screwup in the ACC tourney could hurt. Will be interesting to see the final seedings and matchups.
local teams are the problem...we need to move away from them. I always disliked the Umass series, absolutely no benefit to playing them.
I could 100% see Virginia Tech or Miami go on a huge run, but I could see both lose their first game. Virginia is not able to score enough for me to be confident in them. Cuse really stinks this year.
have never done zoom before and dont have cam on my computer so going to try this one out with the app on my phone.....looks like a group of bracketlogists including Bracketville Dave and Shelby Mast from USA Today will be having several live zoom meetings over the course of the next few days. They will have guests like De Courcy on Thursday night and Lunardi on Friday. Looks like you have to sign up for each sesssion individually, So just a heads up if anyone wants to join in. Not sure you even have to participate you can probably just listen in
The RAC is different this year than recent seasons. I really think if we win tonight, the crowd wills them to victory no matter what.
Local teams are fine but play ones that aren't going to be at the bottom of their conference. Lafayette, Lehigh, CCSU, NJIT, and Maine were all #273 or worse in KenPom to start the year. Lose their phone numbers.
Merrimack is forgivable, they were rated around #200.
You are right about Davidson, they have Alabama, @VCU not losing either, Q1 2-1, 11-3 Q2/3, but UNC Q1 1-7, 16-0 Q2/3(17) is above Wake Q1 1-4, 13-4 Q2/3(14), more play in, not above a play-in that would have 2-5 Q1 wins and less than clean Q2/3, or even Q4, record.
The NCAA does prioritize Q1s wins & losses in that way. Rank 41-46, (41)#40 Syracuse, 11 seed, was the only at large seeded with 1 Q1 1-7, 12-2 Q2/3, (42)#39 Utah St Q1 2-5, 9-3 Q2/3, (48)#45 Drake(23-4) at large, Q1 1-2, 11-2 Q2/3, as a play in below 12 seeds OregSt., G'Town, (45)#72 Wichita St(14-5) Q1 2-3, 8-2 Q2/3, (44)#46 UCLA(17-9) Q1 2-6, 11-3 Q2/3, (43)#70 Michigan St (15-12) Q1 5-10, 6-2 Q2/3.
(36)#35 Maryland(15-13) 10 seed Q1 4-10, 9-3 Q2/3, (37)#48 VA Tech Q1 2-3, 8-3 Q2/3, (38)#37 VCU Q1 2-5, 13-2 Q2/3, (39)#24 SBA Q1 4-2, 8-2 Q2/3, (40)#38 Rutgers Q1 4-9, 9-2 Q2/3.
They put (47)#64 G'Town(13-12) 3Q1wins, Q1/2 8-10, (46)#91 Oregon St(16-12) 5Q1wins, Q1/2 7-9 above (49)#55 Winthrop(23-1, 0-0 2-0, 2-0, 19-1), and (50)#54 UCSB(21-4, 0-0, 2-4, 8-0, 11-0),
13 seeds, 51 Ohio(87) 15-7, Q1 0-2, 7-5 Q2/3, 8-0 Q4 52 NTx(61) 16-9, 0-3, 9-6 Q2/3, 7-0 Q4, 53.Liberty(86) 19-5, 0-2, 3-1 Q2/3, 16-2 Q4, 54 UNCG(84) 21-8, 0-1, 13-5 Q2/3, 8-2 Q4
I'm sure they break it down differently, but there are close patterns of order from 2018-19 and 2020-21 if you compare the 1-68 ranking released, Q1-4 records, to their bids.
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Biggest games besides RU/Indiana both involved schools preceived safe but will not be with losses tonight...
Xavier at Saint John's
Wyoming at UNLV
Xavier at Saint John's
Wyoming at UNLV
I would highly suggest that Notre Dame win a game in the ACC tournament. They're still riding that Kentucky win but their resume isn't that great otherwise. If they get bounced by like Syracuse in their first game I dunno man.
If we win against Penn State.....Ohio St, Iowa, and Mich lose 1 more game each...we are the 4 seed in the big ten tournament? I wonder if the double bye would somehow hurt us, or beating PSU would make it a moot point.
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If we beat PSU, when was the last time the committee left out a 4th or 5th place big 10 team?
I remember Nebraska being highly seeded one year and not getting in, but maybe that was in a dream lol
They mentioned Nebraska and PSU in pre game show but they beat nobody ahead of them. They noted we beat everybody ahead of us.
No but it would make it a moot point lol
