We have to win at minimum 2 games. If we lose to Indiana it will likely be 3@kyk1827 what is the minimum you think we need to do the next 8days to get in the tournament ?
We have to win at minimum 2 games. If we lose to Indiana it will likely be 3@kyk1827 what is the minimum you think we need to do the next 8days to get in the tournament ?
I’ll answer - he thinks we need to win our next 3 which might be right@kyk1827 what is the minimum you think we need to do the next 8days to get in the tournament ?
I fear that because I think we lose tonight and beat Penn state . So to me best case will be a win and in situation in the first round of the big ten tournament .I’ll answer - he thinks we need to win our next 3 which might be right
Most others think if we win 2 out of 3 we’re probably in but it’s not a sure thing by any stretch.
all the results went against us tonight.
VCU win over St Bonnies eliminated the latter from contention
TCU locks in with the marquee win over Kansas who loses their #1 seed for now
Oklahoma moves into the nether regions of the bubble on still flickering
Michigan gets a big win but cannot lose the next 2, have to get a certain amount of games above 500
As a college hoops fan, I enjoy your work but I'm pretty confident you're wrong on Michigan. If they split the next two, they're in and I'd be 90+% confident that they'd avoid Dayton.
First, there is no minimum games above .500 requirement. The Jerry Palm line he recites is factually wrong -- Villanova also made it in 1992 at 2 games above .500. Michigan State made it last season at two games above .500 with terrible metrics. But if you want to play the 4 games above .500 game, it's worth noting that if Michigan split Iowa/OSU and lost in Indianapolis, it would finish 17-14 but it had its easiest game all year cancelled due to COVID (at home against Fort Wayne). I have a hard time believing that the difference between making the tournament and not is they didn't make up a home game against a sub 200 NET team.
Michigan also has metrics way above most bubble teams -- top 30 on KenPom, Sagarin and 31 in NET. Most bubble teams are in the 40s/50s. But I don't think metrics is the be all/end all.
However, the main reason I'm very confident Michigan makes it is schedule. Michigan played by far the toughest conference schedule of any conference team (their single plays included Maryland, Northwestern, Minnesota, Penn State), and it has the toughest non-conference schedule in the B1G which is why it has an overall strength of schedule around 5th nationally. And if there is one principle which always holds true it is teams that play challenging schedules get in, while teams that load up on cupcakes in the non-conference stay home. Michigan only played 3 Q4 games, for comparison Indiana played 7, and Rutgers played 6.
If Indiana and Rutgers miss it, it will have less to do with lack of good wins (IU) or bad losses (Rutgers) then their non-conference schedules were terrible and beneath what schools of that caliber should be doing.
Ah my bad, I read your post as "cannot lose the last 2" implying that they had to win both.First thanks for following along and appreciate the discussion but where I am wrong. I actually am more favorable to Michigan that most and agree with most of your post. I said if they lose their next 2 they are in trouble, which they are, that puts them at 16-14 and means they will have to win 2 in the Big 10 tourney, 17-15 is just 2 games above 500 and schools are not going to get selected...at 18-15 they have a better shot although again that is still below the usual safe mark of 4 games above. 500. So not a lock there either but I would think they still go.
MSU made it 2 games above 500 last year because it was a Covid season period. So knock that one out. Nova was the only one 30 years ago in the height of the Big East.
3 games above 500 yes they should go, 2 games above no and quite frankly a 17-15 Michigan does not deserve to go, their wins are not that overwhelmingly that they are irresistible
Indiana has three impressive wins this year:
Ohio State just coming off a COVID pause (Indiana was their second game back, their first was going to OT at Nebraska)
Notre Dame in an obvious letdown spot (they beat Kentucky at home in their last game)
Purdue in an obvious letdown spot (they won in 2OT at Illinois in their last game)
I am going to be so bummed if we lose tonight. (To be fair, we wouldn't exactly qualify as a 4th impressive win for them)
This isnt my opinion, moreso the opinion of guys like brad wachtel. We need to go 3-0 imo.@kyk1827 what is the minimum you think we need to do the next 8days to get in the tournament ?
I agree. Unfortunately I think the loser of this game is on the outside looking in. I hope I'm wrong. The stress levels of both fanbases will be at 100%.Tonight will be extremely important for both teams now, since all the Bubble teams (what a surprise) won yesterday. It’s going going to be a stressful game for both teams. Definitely will be my last hindsight of the day and good luck to you all!
You’re not wrong, they absolutely will be on the outside looking in.I agree. Unfortunately I think the loser of this game is on the outside looking in. I hope I'm wrong. The stress levels of both fanbases will be at 100%.
Last 6 years, 21-22 to 16-17
NEC 30th, 28th*, 28th, 30th, 30th, 30th (29.6)
Patriot 28th, 14th*, 25th, 23rd, 27th, 22rd (25.0)
AEast 26th, 20th*, 23rd, 26th, 24th, 24th (24.6)
Ivy 19th, DNP*, 16th, 14th, 20th, 15th (16.8)
MAAC 18th, 23rd*, 22nd, 28th, 21st, 20th (21.8)
Colonial 15th, 17th*, 17th, 19th, 16th, 12th (15.8)
There is a huge gap between scheduling 6 we did, and 1 each conference,
NEC(avg 280 NET), Patriot(avg 266) and AE(avg 256)
against middle, Ivy (209), MAAC (203), Colonial (187) or even MAC (217)
4th Lehigh #300(Pat), 5th Merrimack #294(NEC), last NJIT #331(AE), 7th Lafayette #317(Pat), 9th Maine #353(AE) and Last CCSU #345(NEC).
It was a blunder to schedule based on last year's teams records and conference rankings. UMass(9-9) finished 4th 20-21, Depaul and Clemson out of our hands, and @SHU. Not sure who was a part of the staff that thought this was a good balanced schedule, but they need to get better analytics guys in deciding these things. The coach signs off on the schedule, but he trust his people to give him a quality schedule. You don't want to be left out based on an off the court decision of a weak non conference scheduling. The players have no control of that, just what they do on the court. A couple more Q3s wins would look good.right now over 2 bottom 300s wins we have.
I think RU needs to win both. Then we will see if they need another one, may or may not. With Michigan and Indiana also in the mix, those are peers you are competing with. Looks like in that scenerio RU at 12-8 would avoid playing either but Mich/Indy might have a matchup that could eliminate one
If I had to guess I would say its very very unlikely for all 3 to make it. Probably 2.
and yes your scenario about losing tonight and getting Michigan or Indy in the 8/9 also could work out. All 3 schools have a different kind of resume. Indiana has the cleanest but lacking big wins, RU the messiest but with big wins and Michigan the one who needs to worry bout the losses the most but has an outstanding sos and a solid quality win number now
I think all 3 are possible First 4 contenders. RU almost certainly there unless they can get to 20 wins and the Big 10 semis, they should bump up a bit
If N. Texas or UAB and Davidson/A10 winner are AQ,
they will be top 12 seeds, not 11 and 10
5 Houston 12 N.Texas/CUSA winner
5 Alabama 12 Davidson/A10 winner
Keeping to the 2 play in games at 11 seed
They have moved higher ranked AQ down to the 12 seed in the last few tourneys, Murray St comes to mind a few years ago. NCAA loves the 5/12 upsets.
I’d be perfectly fine with Princeton!! Checks all the boxes and good prep back in the day for Georgetown and now slower paced teams like Wiscy. I have a soft spot for our former A10 brethren. Didn’t think we would lose to UMass. Temple, GW or St. Joe’s fit the bill. Delaware. Throw a life raft to FDU? St. Pete’s and Monmouth? Throw in Seton Hall, B1G East and ACC Challenge and I suppose if you want a preseason tourney somewhere. Can it be that easy? Local teams way more interesting and save some $$$.the issue is that the Northeast schools are complete trash. Stop scheduling these schools from these conferences.....better to schedule Bumblebee State from the midwest or south rather than the absolute garbage the northeast schools are producing and those schools may actually be motivated to knock off another local school. Pike is love with the awful Northeast and America East
there is no excuse at this level in the Big 10 for Hobbs and Pikiell to not know scheduling metrics..they better get on the phone and have Brad Wachtel advise them.
I'm not convinced the ACC teams are nearly as safe as they are projected (Miami, UNC, Wake, ND).
Except for UNC, these schools played terrible non-conference schedules and fattened up on how bad the ACC is. Even their Q1 wins are flimsy (outside of Duke), as they are lower Q1 wins (i.e. beating NIT teams on the road).
I'd be stunned if the First Four doesn't include one of the Wake-Miami-UNC trio, and I think there's a good chance that one of them is left out altogether.
The danger here is if Duke trips up, this has all the makings of a bid-stealer in the conference tournament. None of the other teams are unbeatable, and if Duke goes down, I can't say I'd be stunned if we see the likes of Virginia, VT or even Syracuse stealing the auto bid.
I’d be perfectly fine with Princeton!! Checks all the boxes and good prep back in the day for Georgetown and now slower paced teams like Wiscy. I have a soft spot for our former A10 brethren. Didn’t think we would lose to UMass. Temple, GW or St. Joe’s fit the bill. Delaware. Throw a life raft to FDU? St. Pete’s and Monmouth? Throw in Seton Hall, B1G East and ACC Challenge and I suppose if you want a preseason tourney somewhere. Can it be that easy? Local teams way more interesting and save some $$$.
I could 100% see Virginia Tech or Miami go on a huge run, but I could see both lose their first game. Virginia is not able to score enough for me to be confident in them. Cuse really stinks this year.I'm not convinced the ACC teams are nearly as safe as they are projected (Miami, UNC, Wake, ND).
Except for UNC, these schools played terrible non-conference schedules and fattened up on how bad the ACC is. Even their Q1 wins are flimsy (outside of Duke), as they are lower Q1 wins (i.e. beating NIT teams on the road).
I'd be stunned if the First Four doesn't include one of the Wake-Miami-UNC trio, and I think there's a good chance that one of them is left out altogether.
The danger here is if Duke trips up, this has all the makings of a bid-stealer in the conference tournament. None of the other teams are unbeatable, and if Duke goes down, I can't say I'd be stunned if we see the likes of Virginia, VT or even Syracuse stealing the auto bid.
The typical rutgers thing to do is look awesome tonight with a huge victory . And then lay and egg against hated PSU on senior day. This could happen folks
Local teams are fine but play ones that aren't going to be at the bottom of their conference. Lafayette, Lehigh, CCSU, NJIT, and Maine were all #273 or worse in KenPom to start the year. Lose their phone numbers.local teams are the problem...we need to move away from them. I always disliked the Umass series, absolutely no benefit to playing them.
You are right about Davidson, they have Alabama, @VCU not losing either, Q1 2-1, 11-3 Q2/3, but UNC Q1 1-7, 16-0 Q2/3(17) is above Wake Q1 1-4, 13-4 Q2/3(14), more play in, not above a play-in that would have 2-5 Q1 wins and less than clean Q2/3, or even Q4, record.Davidson is going to be better than a 12 GUARANTEED
I would highly suggest that Notre Dame win a game in the ACC tournament. They're still riding that Kentucky win but their resume isn't that great otherwise. If they get bounced by like Syracuse in their first game I dunno man.ND lost @FSU
I remember Nebraska being highly seeded one year and not getting in, but maybe that was in a dream lolIf we beat PSU, when was the last time the committee left out a 4th or 5th place big 10 team?
They mentioned Nebraska and PSU in pre game show but they beat nobody ahead of them. They noted we beat everybody ahead of us.I remember Nebraska being highly seeded one year and not getting in, but maybe that was in a dream lol
No but it would make it a moot point lolIf we win against Penn State.....Ohio St, Iowa, and Mich lose 1 more game each...we are the 4 seed in the big ten tournament? I wonder if the double bye would somehow hurt us, or beating PSU would make it a mute point.
autocorrect! I swear I have a Rutgers degree lol.No but it would make it a moot point lol