BACATOLOGY: NCAA TOURNAMENT ANALYSIS UPDATE FOR 3/6 PAGE 23
- Thread starter bac2therac
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Five of us on this board could beat Georgetown given the circumstances. They rallied and gave Seton Hall their best shot tonight and fell short. Absolutely no chance they play anything resembling inspired basketball on Saturday.
First round exit. Very overrated. If they are a 6 would bet the house on the 11. Michigan v Marquette who wins??
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They're at home playing for their lives. Georgetown is down and out. I'll bet anything X wins by 12+.
Xavier has been atrocious, never say never. They have lost how many in a row...5 and 7 of 8
They did not have close to the quad 1 wins that we have I believe.
We already beat Michigan out. They don’t need to lose.
I was playing with the mred big ten tournament seed calculator. If we beat Penn State and both Iowa and Ohio State lose one more game each, I cannot find a scenario where we are not the 4 seed.
Losing our first game in tournament vs 5 seed Iowa or Ohio State or such is way better than losing it to 12 or 13 seed Minnesota. Get that 4 seed, I think we are on solid ground.
Odd point: Michigan faces both Iowa and Ohio State in their last two. If they win, it helps us get a better B1G seed. If they lose both, it let's air out of their bubble. Kind of a win-win for us if we beat PSU.
The big east is overrated. I would be surprised if they get more than 1 team in the sweet 16.
DePaul embarrassing Marquette and helping RU!
They were like a 7 seed before tonight. It’s going to be tough for them to fall that far.
I guess the ACC didn't get the memo that blowing out and embarrassing all of your shit show bottom teams are actually hurting their resumes.
3 teams under 160 now, and NC St is about to border falling below 160 with a 20+ pt loss, Louisville might fall below 135 eliminating a bunch Q2 road wins for the ACC.
3 teams under 160 now, and NC St is about to border falling below 160 with a 20+ pt loss, Louisville might fall below 135 eliminating a bunch Q2 road wins for the ACC.
DePaul knocked of Marquette by 11. Crazy.
The DePaul loss is only Q2, same as it is for us, their second worst loss just ahead of @ 125 Butler
huge game here and most bracketologists caught up in their bias from January. Wyoming is in trouble..the net is 44 and will fall to 50ish with a loss tonight, They have wins over Boise and Colorado St but that is it. Some of these guys will play catch up with this
We are 1 of 17 teams with 6 or more Q1 wins
Baylor 12-4
Iowa St 9-6, Kansas 9-5
Gonzaga 8-3, Wisconsin 8-3
Tenn, Bama 7-7, UK, Nova 7-6, Purdue 7-5, Auburn 7-4(2nite 8-4)
Texas Tech, Marquette 6-7, TCU 6-6, Ariz 6-3
Arkansas win vs LSU, 6-4, Rutgers win, 6-5
We are also 8-5 vs top 50, with Mich St and Mich wins.
Baylor 12-4
Iowa St 9-6, Kansas 9-5
Gonzaga 8-3, Wisconsin 8-3
Tenn, Bama 7-7, UK, Nova 7-6, Purdue 7-5, Auburn 7-4(2nite 8-4)
Texas Tech, Marquette 6-7, TCU 6-6, Ariz 6-3
Arkansas win vs LSU, 6-4, Rutgers win, 6-5
We are also 8-5 vs top 50, with Mich St and Mich wins.
Auburn is so overrated, they will lose to a 8/9 seed...first off hopefully they fall to a 2 soon
RU is likely going to be stuck in that first four or 11 spots....I could see 6s like LSU, Alabama, Boise State, St Marys, Iowa State. Would love any of those matchups
Not surprising at all. DePaul has been decent all year. Marcus Liberty missed 5-6 games in the middle of the year and they forfeited 2 losses because of Covid. BAC called it a bad loss early but at the time we were playing them they were playing well before Covid hit them. They have also lost a bunch of closes games to the top of the league without their best players. Missing Jones a few games as well( the guy who hit 5 threes against us. ).
One thing I cannot stand is people do not take into account when you beat someone . Did you beat them when they were on a winning streak ( MSU) and put them on their downward spiral , as compared to beating a team in the middle of a losing streak or playing hurt and losing one or more of their starters and a team gets a win. Big Difference in my opinion.
Also , something that definitely needs to be fixed in the NET. If you beat the team when they are legitimately ranked , when they were all healthy , and they stumble outside Quad 1 later ( MSU) , it should still be a Quad 1. This calling it a Quad 1 at the end is ridiculous. Beating Duke now as compared to earlier in the year, is not the same. Beating ranked teams back to back to back to back has to be weighed more heavily. So many things wrong with the NET. Only good thing is that a human decides who the best at large teams are not the NET. It is a sorting tool and maybe a factor to look at when 2 teams are very close in your evaluation.
Yes but they literally didn’t beat anyone. RU has 6 Q1 wins now which is incredible.
this is ridiculous thinking.....how can you count wins by Q1 when you beat them rather than how it evolves during the season, mathematically impossible. You could have a team like Texas A&m that was 14-2 and then lost 8 in a row...ditto for the Big 12 schools...you are what you are as the season evolves. You have to have good wins early in the season non conference counts, you cannot lose to shit teams like Lafayette and UMass and then cry about it.
RU is in the spot they are in because they have not won enough games and lost too many
Pet Peeve. Should be 7-5 in Quad 1. When we beat MSU they were # 13 and were on a winning streak and had just gone into Wisconsin and won by 10. They were Quad 1 at that time and it should be counted as such. Because they are down to 40 now after the grueling BIG 10 should not devalue the 21 point beat down. It should be worth more not less. That feature of the NET has to be fixed. Teams get injuries , lose key players and are not the same team. We beat 5 ranked teams when they were playing like top 10-15 teams ( Purdue as # 1 , MSU as # 13, Ohio State as # 16, Wisconsin as # 14 and Illinois as # 12. ). This is the top 16 of the NET not 25-30 , which should also be valued more. Need to correct this metric if it is still going to be used.
The only one that would worry me is LSU as they are super athletic and crash the offensive glass. Had 20 offensive rebounds at Arkansas tonight. I agree about any of the others. We are better than them.
absolutely wrong.....body of work
you can argue how the net is made up is wrong, I agree fully with you there but the grouping and sorting has to happen and it has to happen based on the evolving NET and quad numbers as each game is played
Down goes Wyoming....alot of numbers crunching tomorrow morning
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