Agree, this over reliance on thinking Kenpom is the answer to every question is getting crazy. I am sure it is a great tool.
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Baker
- Thread starter RUChow
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Agree, this over reliance on thinking Kenpom is the answer to every question is getting crazy. I am sure it is a great tool.
I have been saying a small, quick PG was needed on this roster, 6'0 to 6'2. They tend to play better perimeter defense against other small quick PG's like the ones that Rutgers will face later in the year. Better than 6'4 Geo or 6'6 McConnell playing against them.
This has been my Opinion for a while and I thought the last open spot should have been used to get that type of player on the foster .( Grad transfer). In fact, it appears Pikiell tried but it did not work out....so he as to go with McConnell.
Who is this grad transfer better than right now...and if that player is better than McConnell, does the player buy into the improved team and chemistry.
My point stands that the grad transfer is good for 1 year and we already need to find minutes for Mathis and Kiss. I am fine over this season giving Mathis, Harper and McConnell minutes vs a grad transfer for 1 year. I am not results oriented for 1 year only.
want to know what KenPom is? A 97% proxy for the Vegas point spread right now. So if you are smarter than Vegas, go make your money.
all I know is Baker is the best guy we got and he is doing what he can for the team
I have no doubt Coach P looked high and low
but I also dont doubt he will find "the guy" we need...I trust in
:basketball:[jumpingsmile]:basketball: PIKE:basketball:[jumpingsmile]:basketball:
I have no doubt Coach P looked high and low
but I also dont doubt he will find "the guy" we need...I trust in
:basketball:[jumpingsmile]:basketball: PIKE:basketball:[jumpingsmile]:basketball:
It’s actually much more relevant than your comment about a win against bowling green which is truly irrelevant. Apparently a team that wins a game by a smaller margin than a spread predicts means they’re not good? A win is a win and the transative property doesn’t apply in sports. Is furman now a top 25 team because they knocked off nova?
The shooting performance is relevant because it shows you that even when ponds has a quiet game, look what the other talent on that team is capable of. They have two legitimate nba prospects at guard and a solid supporting cast. If you think there are 10 better teams in the big ten then I just don’t know what team you were watching.
Greene
Actually I thought geo played ponds pretty decent on D...and that took away from his offense (and why he needs his minutes at 30)
I was a lot more scared about two specific players on defense from what I saw ...and I think they will eventually be turned into role players as a result....
It's not necessarily speed that is needed more on D. It's lateral quickness.
The SJU team that shot 32% from range last year added Herron and Figeroa. Think those two might help their shooting percentage this year?
SJU brought back the Big East preseason POY (Ponds), added the SEC POY (Herron), added a terrific 4* recruit (Figeroa), and added Kiss' Quinnipiac teammate who won FOY in that conference (Dixon--comes off their bench). Simon (Arizona transfer) and Clark (Michigan State transfer) are big time complimentary pieces to a CBB team looking to make noise.
Having watched a whole bunch of the Gavitt games in my opinion SJU is the 2nd best team in the BE and until Nova figures it out they might be the best. I think they go 12-6 (and possibly better) in that league. They are a Top 25 team and quite possibly as good as a "4 or 5 seed" this year.
Anyone who attended/watched that game and didn't come away with the opinion that Herron is a Top 15 NBA draft type talent and SJU is pretty darn good watched something different than I did. And Mullin's soft 1-3-1 full court pressure was a brilliant coaching move.
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I was probably too frustrated to give the Johnnies full credit. They’re not big but are mature and physical, and for one night shot brilliantly. Agree about the 1-3-1 which forced us into a half court game which they defended pretty well. Given how we shot, 65 points makes me feel pretty good.
LMAO
Literally the entire industry of handicapping and sports analysis disagrees with you. But go ahead and keep on believing!
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2 interconnected main issues that should be very interesting going forward, especially the next few weeks.....
1. What personnel, when combining offense and defense, gives us the best chance of winning (SHORT TERM ISSUE)
2. How important is winning individual games if it comes at the expense of what Pikiell has tried to build the 1st 2 years and what he wants the program to look like (DEFENSE and REBOUNDING).
Could have those dilemna in less than 12 hours. What do you do if a guy's offense makes up for defensive liability, but you feel the effort needs to be better. You may have the luxury VS. Maine to give the minutes to the guy who plays defense, but what if it is 51-51 with 4 minutes left tonight?
1. What personnel, when combining offense and defense, gives us the best chance of winning (SHORT TERM ISSUE)
2. How important is winning individual games if it comes at the expense of what Pikiell has tried to build the 1st 2 years and what he wants the program to look like (DEFENSE and REBOUNDING).
Could have those dilemna in less than 12 hours. What do you do if a guy's offense makes up for defensive liability, but you feel the effort needs to be better. You may have the luxury VS. Maine to give the minutes to the guy who plays defense, but what if it is 51-51 with 4 minutes left tonight?
Ponds, Herron, Simon and Clark were all Top 40 recruits coming out of HS (Herron was Top 20). Figeroa was a Top 75 recruit.
There is a bunch of talent on this SJU roster.
There is a bunch of talent on this SJU roster.
Issa has very lateral quickness, BUT he makes it up with length and willingness.
I know it's an immaturity type of comment but kids typically play harder and can commit to playing better defense when FTs are made, 3 pointers go through the hoop. There's a group of players that have only played 3 games or less than 60-70 minutes or some that are yet to play much at all.
So if i am deciding on offense or defense in a late November game during a rebuilding season, I am fine with a teaching experience....keep in mind both the players and the coaches are learning each other in different situations.
I think a season and a half worth of situations gives a large enough sample size to learn and tweak.
NJH....very easy for you, me and Coach Pikiell to say that. When you are in the middle of a game your competitive instincts kick in and you do what it takes to win. I am sure Pikiell comes in to each game with a plan on when/how much to sub Pikiell out. it isn't only 38 seconds sandwiched around the 2nd media TO!
In the beginning of 2nd half he had caleb 1/2 way to the scorers table when Baker got torched defensively, but thought the better of it and called him back.
In the beginning of 2nd half he had caleb 1/2 way to the scorers table when Baker got torched defensively, but thought the better of it and called him back.
First and most importantly, your tone and use of capital wtf and lmaos just makes you come off as a total douche. Second, read the actual post. I’m not discrediting KenPom or Vegas. I’m saying you can’t look at a spreadsheet one week into the season and make definitive judgements. That list will change 100 times in the next few months and just because he ranks them or a spread is set doesn’t mean it’s correct. If you think this penn state team is better than St. John’s (which Ken Pom currently says) then we’ll just never agree on anything basketball related and I’m not sure if you’ve watch both teams or simply are reading a spreadsheet.
Heron was a .331 3P shooter at Auburn last year, and shot 4/5 against us. Figueroa was a very good 48.5% shooter at JUCO last year who went 1/5 in his first 2 games, and shot 6/9 against us. Both of them hit their averages, that's 9 fewer points. (It's also only the 5th time in 61 career games that Simon made 2 threes in a game)
If we shot even 35% from three, instead of 27%, that's 6 more points. If we shot 70% from FT instead of 56%, that's 3 more points.
If both SJU and RU were having closer to an average shooting night (given the same # of shots, which wouldn't have happened if the percentages changed, to be sure), that's an 18 point swing.
We shot really poorly on a night when SJU was lighting it up. SJU won't shoot that well every game (or even most games), and RU won't shoot that badly every game (or even most games).
Over the course of a 20 game season, SJU would probably be mid-pack B1G and get an NCAA bid. They'll probably be an the higher side in the BE, which looks to be having a down year. Getting Keita back will also help them come the start of 2019, too.
Rutgers shot 29% from 3 last season. You seem to want to insinuate we have gotten better because we have new players/our existing players developed ("if we even shot 35% from 3"), but do not want to give SJU the same latitude. You point to Figeroa going 1/5 in his first two games from 3, but not Herron going 4-9 in his first two games (now 8-14 after three games) . You ignore that Ponds went for 20 and 21 in his first two games but only had 8 against us.
Time will tell, but my money is on SJU being good this year. Really good.
We shot 29% from 3 last year largely because the outgoing Sanders/Freeman/Williams shot a combined 43/204 (21.1%) and the rest of the team shot 104/296 (34.8%). It's hard to find three key rotational players that shoot worse than that in NCAA basketball.
My expectation for team shooting this year is that it'll average out in the 33-35% range, which is approximately 3rd quartile nationally. It's not some sudden turnaround, just dropping our three worst shooters and replacing with guys that are closer to average collegiate shooters.
On the flip side, only 19 teams shot better than 40% from the arc last year, with the highest being 43.4% (and only one in the last 10 years has shot better than 44%) - so, even if SJU is a Top 5% three point shooting team in the country, they're still likely to to fall out in the 40-42% range, not the 50% range. I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt at 40% that they're going to be one of the best teams nationally on average.
And FYI, Ponds shot 40% from the arc, too, which was over his career average of 31.8%.
SJU was really hot from range, and that won't happen every night. We were really cold from both range and from the FT line, which also won't happen every night.
I watched SJU struggle mightily in Brooklyn against a terrible Cal team last night. The same Cal team that got destroyed by Yale in their opener.
SJU would be favored over maybe 4 Big Ten teams right now on a neutral court. The idea they are one of the 15 or 20 best teams in the country because somebody saw them shoot well at the RAC is comical to me.
I get the sentiment but I don’t hold wins against a team regardless of how they look. Gonzaga had a very close win on a neutral site against Illinois who is a weak team. I dont think that means Gonzaga isn’t as good as advertised.
Similarly, Rutgers blew out a team last night and held them to four points in one half. EMU was higher ranked in KenPom and the spread was 4. These rankings are constantly in motion.
Bottom line is I think SJU is a very good team and we caught them on the worst possible night. You think it they’re below average and would be a bottom feeder in the B1G. Agree to disagree.
And all that is is data to arrive at trends. Does that help handicapping ? Sure but if If was so predictive , you would not be posting on these message boards you would be cashing billions. Trying to pick winners and losers and point spreads is hard stuff. If you succeed 55% of the time you are a genius. But that means all the anayltics were wrong 45% of the time. College football and college basketball are played by 18-23 years old. You never ever completely know what is going to happen. From the small sample size I have seen this year, St. John’s looks like a pretty good team, with a chance for the NCAA this year, but they just shot the lights out Friday and would have beat Duke that night
I'm telling you why the point spreads are right, not how to beat them. In your example, I'm the casino cashing all the money.
Do you think they were more pumped for our game last Friday compared to a Monday night game against a California team they knew nothing about? Do you think it made a difference in their performance? Although I agree that a very good team should not play up and down, they are clearly a good team and won two separate ways. Ponds did little against us scoring 8 points and dishing more. Against Cal, he scored over 30 points just like he did against Villanova and Duke last year which I would hope even you can see they beat some very good teams. They have multiple pros on that team.
Quite a few people were convinced SJU was a Sweet 16/top 25 team in this thread. They currently sit at 3-4 in the Big East tied for 6th place with Seton Hall. Are they still a top 25 team? Or perhaps did some overreact to a single good shooting performance and not realize they are still not that good of a team because they can't defend or rebound.
My premise of "they had a hot night, and we had a cold one" still holds. On the same number of shots, if we'd both shot our 2018-19 season averages in that game, they'd have hit 4 fewer threes and 1 less FT (13 fewer points) and we'd have hit 1 more three and 2 more FTs (5 more points), and it would have been a one possession game.
Sometimes you're just cold when the other team is hot, and vice versa.
Also, I felt that SJU would be a mid-tier B1G team, though probably a touch higher in the BE.... and they're a mid-pack BE team.
They were ranked 24th two weeks ago. They’ve lost 4 games of Which one was an absolute robbery against SHU and another close loss against nova. They’ve had a bad stretch here but I’d be happy to bet you they finish higher than 6th.
I must’ve really struck a chord with you. Sheesh. Digging up old threads. And pretty funny you didn’t say anything after they blew out a top 15 team and we’re ranked in early January.
Umm, they peaked at #39 in KenPom this season. They only briefly sniffed the poll because their schedule was terrible. Marquette is also not that good no matter what a poll rank was at the time.
I died laughing at the suggestion they were a Sweet 16 team and surely a top 25 team. I still find it hilarious. I'm not betting on them finishing 5th or 6th or 4th in the Big East. My assessment of them as a team is exactly unchanged as it was at any point in this thread. They are a bubble-ish team that will likely be between a 9 seed and out of the tourney. They definitely aren't sniffing a top 4 seed.
And no, it wasn't just you. There were also others in this thread so don't feel too unique in that incorrect opinion. I just thought it was so hilarious at the time that I chuckle every time I watch their poorly coached team this season. The nice thing about the new format on Rivals is that old threads are now easily searchable so predictions can be relived forever.
I reread my posts and was going to continue to talk, but after reading this post as well as my comments prior, a block is the better option. You’re brutal.
I’d agree with this. Anyone who saw that game had to come away saying they were hot and it wasn’t our night. They hit a ton of shots that were very difficult or guys were just throwing up there because they were feeling it.
Our team is showing a little more edginess these days, I’m wondering if we’d mix it up more in a rematch. Mathis for one is a different player especially on d.
