COVID-19 Pandemic: Transmissions, Deaths, Treatments, Vaccines, Interventions and More...
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The linked article is about a 2005 laboratory study regarding SARS. I don't think that chloroquine ever proved effective against SARS in humans.
Certainly previous lab results suggest that chloroquine could be effective for Covid-19. But it could fizzle out too.
Fortunately, there are multiple clinical trials underway which should have results within a few weeks. And if the efficacy of the drug is as strong as some suggest, the trials could be halted sooner to make the drug available.
FDA approved rapid COVID-19 test....results in 45 minutes.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html
That is huge, someone on Facebook took the test and were told that they wouldn't have results for 5 days, though that could be more due to a back load.
It is a misnomer to say the drug isn't available - it already is. AND it is alrady being used against covid-19. Like mentioned, it is easier to prescribe generics off-label than brands that require approval for compassionate use.
This study I linked was AFTER SARs. So, of course there are no studies in humans. However, there was enough fear in the medical community at that time that various agents were investigated against SARs invitro. Also, SARS virus is the same family as covid-19 which pointed the medical community to the possible activity of chloroquine against covid-19. My wallstreet network requires that we perform due diligence on companies so most of the info I get are from this vast network. I can tell you that the three drugs - remdesivir, kaletra and chloroquine were the three most administered (off-label) in China by front line doctors. IMHO only, I believe it's one of the factors that stemmed the tide there - social distancing isn't going to do it alone. It's also why I am optimistic (or maybe wishful thinking - gawd I wish it so) that our death rate here will be controlled, despite the high numbers of those testing positive.
Yes, but by definition the 2005 study on a different virus (original SARS) doesn't apply here and the study by Raoult that I've posted about several times is anecdotal in nature, as it was not from an approved protocol and has not yet been peer reviewed, and it likely won't be, since there were several "holes" in the methodology (dropped patients, lack of data on the "control group" viral loads over time, very small size).
It doesn't mean it's "wrong," but Fauci is right in calling it anecdotal and the medical community is correct in saying we need more controlled, larger trials to know for sure and they're already underway, so we should know a lot more in a few weeks, as the timeline for these studies is short. And in the meantime doctors are allowed to prescribe the drug(s) (either HCQ or HCQ in combo with azithromycin) as a preventative or a treatment, especially if someone is in real danger. Production if HCQ is already being ramped up in Mylan's WV factory, so supply hopefully won't be an issue in the US, at least, which is critical for lupus and rheumatoid arthritis patients.
Both cities definitely have slower rates of increase in cases than NYC (Washington State doubled their cases over the last 5 days, while NYC has been doubling every 2 days and SF is still <100 as of Friday), so perhaps that is why, although NY is the only state I know of where testing rates are close to unlimited, so it's possible it's party due to lack of testing in those areas. Let's hope it's the social distancing as that would be a much more positive outcome. Maybe somebody has already done a more in-depth comparison - mine is cursory, to be sure.
https://www.kiro7.com/news/local/co...timeline-outbreak/IM65JK66N5BYTIAPZ3FUZSKMUE/
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/03...cisco-reports-19-new-covid-19-cases-70-total/
NY may have the highest testing capacity but many people are still being refused testing, at least that's what I'm hearing in my area (Rochester area). NYC and environs may be getting the vast majority of testing but not sure I would call it anything like unlimited.
Don't know if this has been posted before, was just reading through it. Accurate, thorough and sickening description of what got us to this point in the US. Probably everything has been discussed here at some point but here it's all in one concise article.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-are-sick-lost-february/608521/
About the first case in WVU....just reading it was getting frustrated for the wife. What she must’ve felt like being treated like that. Also how does a hospital turn away some one in need like that and just say call a number.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/us/west-virginia-coronavirus-patient-one-test/index.html
Small sample size doesn't make the study "anecdotal". Anecdotal is: "How do you feel?" - "I feel good" - "Ah, ok, works then"
Also, SARs-covid is the same family as covid-19 - yes, they are different but the same family of viruses. How can you say the study is not relevant? You don't think doctors knew of that study and said - hey try chloroquine?
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It seems like this thing is really easy to spread . It has to be more airborne than initially reported
I don't believe it's airborne - what is making it easy to spread is the length of incubation which is 2 weeks, some say 3 weeks. That is crazy long.
Mind-blowing. This is really criminal negligence on a grand scale.
It's simply heartbreaking to know that much (not all) of this (infections and draconian responses) could've likely been prevented or at least significantly reduced if we had simply put in place aggressive testing back in early February, which was very doable if we had been using the WHO-approved German test that South Korea ended up using (with modifications) so effectively when its big outbreak started in mid-February, which, in hindsight, is when ours started, except we were blind to it. When I look at my post from 2/8, discussing how great it was to finally have apparently solved the test kit issue (nobody knew yet of the testing fiasco and coming weeks of ineptitude on testing), which was critical to stopping any epidemic, it almost makes me want to cry. If someone like me knew how important testing was, how could our government have failed so badly on this?
https://rutgers.forums.rivals.com/t...-is-stuck-in-china.187666/page-4#post-4375209
History will not be kind to President Trump on this, but as I just posted on Facebook, I think we all need to be on one page from here on out (except maybe on the CE board, where people have free time and arguing about blame doesn't really matter much) and both Trump and the media need to look in the mirror a bit here. There will be plenty of time for post-mortems on this, but IMO, Trump needs to act much more like a compassionate leader and focus on truly putting the full force of the Federal Government behind this getting things done (definitely improving but a ways to go) and the media needs to stop fixating on what Trump has done wrong in the past. I'm not saying his misstatements and poor response for weeks should be ignored, but there are times when there's more coverage of what Trump did wrong than on what we need to do to beat this thing.
Yeah, I'm trying to avoid the "blame Trump for everything" attitude. We've supposedly been planning for this exact scenario for decades and to be this unprepared when it actually happens doesn't fall only on one person. It does not appear that the country has a significant reserve supply of PPE, masks, ventilators, all the kinds of things we need right now. That reflects a period of failure that covers multiple administrations.
I was just browsing through that thread and saw my post from Feb 1 talking about simmering cases in the US. I figured at the time it must be obvious to everyone who was paying attention (CDC and others) and that plans were being put in place. And yet here we are :cry:
I didn't say it did. What I said is anecdotal is in reference to the study not being from an approved protocol and not being peer reviewed (and said that the several "holes" in the study, including small sample size, will likely mean it won't get peer reviewed/published). If you want to know more about the clinical objections, see the comments in the link...
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.16.20037135v1
If it were spread via air, i.e., in ventilation systems and such, we'd have far more than 0.1% of any country infected, including everyone on cruise ships, planes, etc and we haven't seen high infection rates in customer-facing occupations (much more in families/cohabitation scenarios). It's fairly contagious, person-to-person, via virus-laden droplets in sneezes/coughs (and even breath, at close range), but it's not "airborne" in the technical sense of virus particles on surfaces later becoming airborne from airflow.
As an aside, one possible "saving grace" for this virus might be that transmissions via asymptomatic infected people might be less than originally thought, as most transmissions appear to be with people in close contact (families especially) and the Diamond Princess data also suggests that as only 17% on board became infected, despite having quite a few people on board being positive, but asymptomatic. The first link, below, also proposes a much lower mortality rate (than the 1% many think is the "true" rate), too based on the Diamond Princess analysis and other data - it's definitely at odds with most of the experts, but given the high uncertainty in all of this its perspective shouldn't be ignored.
If positive/asymptomatic people were that contagious, given that half of those how tested postiive were asymptomatic (about half of the 634 total positive out of 3711 passengeres), one would have thought we'd see more than 17% of the passengers become infected - although the ship quarantine went into place around day 14 of the cruise, which might explain why that number wasn't higher.
look for link to medium.com under 6469 (link won't work)
https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180
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what's kinda silly is that we hadn't just borrowed the technology from Taiwan who already developed a consistently accurate 10-15 minute test that passed their regulations (more stringent than US) a month ago.
Thanks. That's my primary goal, since I know it's hard for people to casually follow and understand all this and I now have tons of free time (and a bit of expertise), so why not do this instead of tracking non-existent winter storms, lol? Last chance for a little (along 95; could be a few inches well N/W) snow this season tomorrow night/early Monday, by the way - will update the thread on that...
Some good news...the FDA approved a very fast (~45 min) new coronavirus testing method and it should be shipping out in the next day or two, greatly reducing the 1-2 day (or more) turnaround time for testing results. Posted about this a couple of weeks ago and it's great to see it being approved for use.
Also, nice to see that the US has ramped up very fast over the past few days with 195,000 tests now being completed and probably 90% of those in the last week (and probably half of those in NY/NYC where the worst outbreak is). I know there are places still having testing troubles, but not everywhere like it was a week ago and for weeks before that. Good progress...need the data.
Also, below is a good link to a ton of other tests being used or in development. I kind of like the idea of a true instant breath or blood test. One could use something like that for screening passengers at an airport or a sporting event or maybe even a first date, lol.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-03-21T19:30:02&utm_term=link&utm_source=fbCNN&fbclid=IwAR3ZalIcWctf407x3inRVeDyO4l1sfPUCf83VbVNAPHy-S9AIPFB3gRaWW8
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nger-prick-tests-mask-diagnose-instantly.html
Also, nice to see that the US has ramped up very fast over the past few days with 195,000 tests now being completed and probably 90% of those in the last week (and probably half of those in NY/NYC where the worst outbreak is). I know there are places still having testing troubles, but not everywhere like it was a week ago and for weeks before that. Good progress...need the data.
Also, below is a good link to a ton of other tests being used or in development. I kind of like the idea of a true instant breath or blood test. One could use something like that for screening passengers at an airport or a sporting event or maybe even a first date, lol.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/21/politics/fda-coronavirus-test/index.html?utm_medium=social&utm_content=2020-03-21T19:30:02&utm_term=link&utm_source=fbCNN&fbclid=IwAR3ZalIcWctf407x3inRVeDyO4l1sfPUCf83VbVNAPHy-S9AIPFB3gRaWW8
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...nger-prick-tests-mask-diagnose-instantly.html
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Horrible. Thoughts are with you.
Does anyone know what the rules on quarantine actually are ? If you happen to be working , and someone tests positive at your workplace does everyone there need to quarantine for 2 weeks ? And would their household members have to quarantine?
I haven’t seen any specific guidelines, but they have to be out there right ?
I haven’t seen any specific guidelines, but they have to be out there right ?
How do you know theirs is more accurate? And as far as regulations, you really think theirs is more strict than ours?
Some data/info on the infection in the US and especially NY, mostly from Cuomo's press conference today. While the NY death rate is low right now (0.7%), unfortunately, unless some of the repurposed old treatments work, the number of deaths per day will almost certainly go up, since the average time from symptoms to death is 3+ weeks and most of the positive test results in the US have been found in the last week. The death rate, however, will be very dependent on the testing rate.
For example, NY has over half the cases in the US with ~15K cases out of ~29K US cases, partly due to very aggressive testing as NY has tested 61K people, way more than any other state (saw a number of 190K tested in the US so far) and NY has the lowest mortality rate of any state with more than a few deaths, 114 out of 15K (about 0.7%). For comparison, WA has 96 deaths in 1647 cases or 5.8%, with some of that likely due to less testing (23,000 tests) and some due to the nursing home outbreak and the overall US rate is 1.3% (374/29,192 cases); NJ has 16 deaths in 1327 cases (1.2%). NY hospitalization rate is 13% and that probably dropped more due to having more mildly symptomatic people in the denominator, given more testing.
But more testing is fantastic, as we're flying blind without it and all the positive test results mean those people are now off the street and all their contacts should be too, since it's standard practice to inform their contacts - that's how more testing slows transmission rates. The hard message for people in NY and other states with significant outbreaks (10 states with more than 500 cases and if they're not testing that much those are all well over 5000 infected actually) is that the case rate with aggressive testing is going to skyrocket for a bit and then start to level off and then decrease (assuming social distancing is even moderately effective) and hopefully we can get past this, but I assume this will play out over a few weeks. Governor Cuomo also said 70% of the NY deaths were in those over 70 and most of those had underlying conditions and that 80% of the deaths in those under 70 had underlying conditions.
Cuomo also made a great case for the Feds nationalizing medical supplies (masks, ventilators, etc.), since states are now competing against each other for meager supply and prices have gone up from $0.85 to $7.00 for N95 masks, for example. He contrasted that with testing, where he advocated decentralizing that to allow states to do their own testing, which is what freed up NY to start testing aggressively. And he's still waiting on the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA to help address the large deficit in hospital beds/ICU beds vs. what's predicted to hit by helping to "build" (retrofitting areas like the Javits Center in NYC) about 5 regional temporary hospitals in the NYC metro area.
However, I don't agree with his prediction of 40-80% of people contracting the virus. Even on the Diamond Princess, only 17% got it and that was a great "experiment" on the likely worst case, plus no country is above 0.1% infected - yet. Below is a link to the transcripts from his pressers. Below is a link to the transcripts from his pressers.
As a personal aside, this is the man who should be running for POTUS for the democrats. His press conferences are such a breath of fresh air, featuring honesty, compassion, humility and blunt talk, too, about what's going well and what's not. Loved him calling out selfish inconsiderate people in NYC who are blatantly ignoring social distancing - he showed a pic of it from a NYC park (and he asked the Mayor to come up with a plan in 24 hours to address it). Liked his closing message of saying that this is going to be very hard, but that it will be ok and that life is about overcoming challenges and America will be better for overcoming this. And of course their conferences have been modeling proper social distancing for over a week, unlike the White House ones - that really needs to be fixed.
https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/media
For example, NY has over half the cases in the US with ~15K cases out of ~29K US cases, partly due to very aggressive testing as NY has tested 61K people, way more than any other state (saw a number of 190K tested in the US so far) and NY has the lowest mortality rate of any state with more than a few deaths, 114 out of 15K (about 0.7%). For comparison, WA has 96 deaths in 1647 cases or 5.8%, with some of that likely due to less testing (23,000 tests) and some due to the nursing home outbreak and the overall US rate is 1.3% (374/29,192 cases); NJ has 16 deaths in 1327 cases (1.2%). NY hospitalization rate is 13% and that probably dropped more due to having more mildly symptomatic people in the denominator, given more testing.
But more testing is fantastic, as we're flying blind without it and all the positive test results mean those people are now off the street and all their contacts should be too, since it's standard practice to inform their contacts - that's how more testing slows transmission rates. The hard message for people in NY and other states with significant outbreaks (10 states with more than 500 cases and if they're not testing that much those are all well over 5000 infected actually) is that the case rate with aggressive testing is going to skyrocket for a bit and then start to level off and then decrease (assuming social distancing is even moderately effective) and hopefully we can get past this, but I assume this will play out over a few weeks. Governor Cuomo also said 70% of the NY deaths were in those over 70 and most of those had underlying conditions and that 80% of the deaths in those under 70 had underlying conditions.
Cuomo also made a great case for the Feds nationalizing medical supplies (masks, ventilators, etc.), since states are now competing against each other for meager supply and prices have gone up from $0.85 to $7.00 for N95 masks, for example. He contrasted that with testing, where he advocated decentralizing that to allow states to do their own testing, which is what freed up NY to start testing aggressively. And he's still waiting on the Army Corps of Engineers and FEMA to help address the large deficit in hospital beds/ICU beds vs. what's predicted to hit by helping to "build" (retrofitting areas like the Javits Center in NYC) about 5 regional temporary hospitals in the NYC metro area.
However, I don't agree with his prediction of 40-80% of people contracting the virus. Even on the Diamond Princess, only 17% got it and that was a great "experiment" on the likely worst case, plus no country is above 0.1% infected - yet. Below is a link to the transcripts from his pressers. Below is a link to the transcripts from his pressers.
As a personal aside, this is the man who should be running for POTUS for the democrats. His press conferences are such a breath of fresh air, featuring honesty, compassion, humility and blunt talk, too, about what's going well and what's not. Loved him calling out selfish inconsiderate people in NYC who are blatantly ignoring social distancing - he showed a pic of it from a NYC park (and he asked the Mayor to come up with a plan in 24 hours to address it). Liked his closing message of saying that this is going to be very hard, but that it will be ok and that life is about overcoming challenges and America will be better for overcoming this. And of course their conferences have been modeling proper social distancing for over a week, unlike the White House ones - that really needs to be fixed.
https://www.governor.ny.gov/keywords/media
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He definitely gives the impression of one who could run the country. As you note, his press conferences are a breath of fresh air.
I wonder how the testing in the NYC area compares to the rest of the state. The latest stats for our county (Monroe/Rochester) lists 63 confirmed cases, 1 death, 11 hospitalized (no breakdown on severity), 289 in mandatory quarantine. No mention of number of tests done. I don't know anyone who currently has symptoms consistent with the virus. I did hear that a close contact of the one death was tested 5 days ago and is still waiting for results. That sounds like rather slow turnaround time considering that testing is being done mostly in state.
I saw that and have mentioned in the past a Harvard scientist mentioned 40-70% worldwide or a Spanish official saying 80% in Madrid. I don't know whether that will happen or not but I don't see those numbers or Cuomo's 40-80% as wild estimates.
Whether number of mortalities (be they high or low)or these exposure percentages they're usually something in the range of over 18mos-3yrs. From what I read, it's not to say this will all happen this spring or maybe even this year but over some time. I know you often point to the Diamond Pincess cruise exposure rate of 17% but that was over some weeks....if they all lived there for say 2yrs or whatever what do you think the exposure percentage would be? I'd guess a lot higher. Obviously, that's an enclosed space but I can certainly see over a period 18mos-3yrs this have the potential to touch a good percentage of the general population. It doesn't mean everyone will die or get sick but just that they'll be exposed to it in some fashion.
He did show a bunch of county level stats, but don't recall if that included testing...I actually sent an email to them asking for them to publish the graphics they use in the pressers, as those would be easier to share than me typing these dense paragraphs...
Absolutely. My saying at work (someone else coined it but I used it all the time) was "don't let the perfect get in the way of the better." I was also one of the leaders of our Merck Rahway Site emergency planning and response team for 10+ years...
No matter which side of the political spectrum everybody is on (And I am not on the same side as him), Cuomo has been great throughout this whole situation IMO.
Agree on cuomo . His press conferences are great . He’s a politician but realizes this is a serious problem that he can’t BS through.
I am sure the democratic leadership sees this . You would have to be blind to not realize this guy is a leader and a better candidate than Biden or sanders . If the Dems don’t make him the candidate , then only party leadership to blame if trump wins again.
For those of you who have or use the Apple News app ( great app!), read the article in The Atlantic. Every flu patient spreads the virus to 1.3 people (less than 1.0, the virus would die out). The coronavirus pts spread to 2.3 people. That’s almost double the contagiousness of this virus , a very important reason to keep your distance and maintain hygiene.
Influenza has an incubation period of 2-4 days. Corona is reported to be 2-14 days - some reported even 21 days. That is crazy long and the reason why it is so freakin contagious.
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