To be clear I don't have any great issue with what you're doing. I'm just saying, the AQ is always a prediction because "what would it be if the season ended today?" is a nonsensical question when it comes to the AQs.
Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
The conference tourneys provide incredible drama, but I'd like to see the brackets skewed to reward regular-season success. I really like the WCC's bracket — the top two seeds go automatically to the semifinals
They are #1 in scoring margin. Typical solid mid-major who winds up surprising teams in the NCAA tourney due to great (just undersized) guard play. They’re at 40% shooting from trey as a team. They would be Purdue’s worst nightmare if McNeese kept Purdue under 80 points somehow.
yeah that I think thats how the smaller conferences should do it even if its just the top seed and not 2nd
Meanwhile, there is a lot of time left but South Florida is hammering Florida Atlantic right now 66-43 with around 13 minutes to play.
McNeese St will be a nightmare for any 3rd seed to 5th seed they draw. There is no way they are lower than a 14 seed, NET 50s & SOR 50, and have 0.0001% chance of an at large bid if they don't win their conference tourn. Southland is 27th in conference standings and no way of improving their Strength of Record even winning out and losing in the finals.
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say Purdue wins its first round game. Crazy, I know.
I just checked Purdue’s schedule and they could easily wind up as 3 seed or worse if they aren’t careful. Their tough schedule includes a now bubble-curious Rutgers squad…but also includes MSU, Wisconsin, Illinois.
All Princeton proved was that the 150th best team can win two games against better teams. A loss to Princeton last year was a bad loss.
Their schedule is a top 10 OOC schedule as well as overall and #1 Strength of Record, The @ Ohio St loss is Q1. They might still be ahead of UConn who has 9 Q4 wins compared to only 3 Q4s for Purdue. It's close.
Purdue 9-3 6-0(15-3) 5-0 (20-3) 3-0
UConn 9-2 5-0(14-2) 1-0 (15-2) 9-0
Houston 8-3 2-0(11-3) 5-0 (16-3) 7-0
Arizona 7-3 3-1 (10-4) 7-1 (17-5) 3-0
5 Tenn 5-5 5-1 (10-6) 4-0 (14-6) 5-0, 4 Q1 left
6 UNC 5-4 6-1 (11-5) 4-1 (15-6) 5-0, 2 Q1 left
Purdue 3 Q1, 1 Q2, 1 Q3 Rutgers left
UConn 3 Q1, 2 Q2 left
Houston 5 Q1, 1 Q2
Arizona 5 Q2, 1 Q3
There are only 5 teams with 6 Q1 wins ranging from 6-4 to 6-6. It would take a lot for Purdue to fall from #1 overall to 9th with only 5-6 games left. Arizona can't catch Purdue in the Pac 12, can only lose the 1 line with 1 or 2 losses. Houston can but they have 7 Q4 wins to overcome. Purdue could finish 3-2 or 2-3 and still keep their 1 line. That's how far ahead they are right now from the 2 line let alone the 3 line
I could see Illinois running the table and perhaps winning the BigTen tournament also. That could get them above Purdue. Maybe Purdue tanks since winning solely for seeding hasn’t worked out for them in the NCAA’s lately.
Any given team can beat any other team on any given day - that's why the games are played.
But I don't think anyone would argue that UMBC a tougher team to beat in 2018 than UVA, even though they won head-to-head in one matchup. The NCAA tournament is like the old adage about playing poker - all you need is a chip and a chair. If you can get into the tournament, it comes down to a single game in a single matchup, and all the "who's the better overall team" goes out the window. Any team can get hot or cold on a given night, and any team can have a matchup issue with any other given team - that doesn't mean that UMBC should have finished 2018 ranked higher than UVA.
Was St. Peter's one of the 8 best teams in the country in 2022? No - but they made it to the Elite 8 because they got hot in 3 games at the right time before reverting to the mean in a 20 point loss to UNC.
The fight is not always to the strong, nor the race to the swift - but that's the way to bet.
It’s not clear what you think “correct” means. I’m unaware of an analytic that purported that Princeton had a 0% chance of winning either of those games.
The Ivy League doesn't give athletic scholarships, which limits their recruiting. They also generally don't fare well against programs from stronger conferences in the OOC schedule. They've historically been a one-bid league, and I don't think this year will be any different.
They would argue with some merit for years like the Georgetown game they were miss seeded, 15-16….
Yeah in theory they don't give scholarships but they give alot of financial benefits and have much to offer-- many would say more than the typical scholarship players wind up with.
I'm not sure what the fixation on Ivy basketball is. They're a group of elite academic institutions - they don't also have to be a great basketball conference.
They have a few decent-to-good programs, and a lot of dreck. They don't have a strong enough conference slate to warrant at-large selection unless they load up on Top 50 programs in the OOC schedule or go nearly undefeated, which they don't do - and their record against top teams generally isn't good when they *do* upgrade their OOC schedule.
As a traditionally one-bid conference, any given Ivy team's focus should be on how to use the OOC as a tool to improve their team for their conference tourney - because if they lose that, they don't dance. Their own NET ranking or team sheet resume is largely irrelevant - the goal is to win the conference tournament.
Princeton had a great couple of games in the tournament last year and were a great Cinderella story - much like St. Peter's the year before and Oral Roberts the year before that. This year they're having a decent season - winning the games they are supposed to but losing more of the competitive games than they've won (2-3 vs. the NET top 100). If they drop a game in the Ivy tournament, they'll almost certainly be NIT-bound.
They have a few decent-to-good programs, and a lot of dreck. They don't have a strong enough conference slate to warrant at-large selection unless they load up on Top 50 programs in the OOC schedule or go nearly undefeated, which they don't do - and their record against top teams generally isn't good when they *do* upgrade their OOC schedule.
As a traditionally one-bid conference, any given Ivy team's focus should be on how to use the OOC as a tool to improve their team for their conference tourney - because if they lose that, they don't dance. Their own NET ranking or team sheet resume is largely irrelevant - the goal is to win the conference tournament.
Princeton had a great couple of games in the tournament last year and were a great Cinderella story - much like St. Peter's the year before and Oral Roberts the year before that. This year they're having a decent season - winning the games they are supposed to but losing more of the competitive games than they've won (2-3 vs. the NET top 100). If they drop a game in the Ivy tournament, they'll almost certainly be NIT-bound.
It is really odd. Some people here are living in the really distant past. The Ivy is unusually good this year and still doesn’t have any real case for an at-large bid. Princeton, Yale, Cornell are good for small conference teams but that’s all it is. None of these teams have beaten anyone at all out of conference, the best win is literally against us.
Must be very tight grouping from 26-40 that one game can swing that much.
NET rewards beating up on medicore teams. Pitt was lower end Q2 for them.
That move this late in the year was criminal really for such a middling resume and
Iowa moved up only like 5 for winning on the road vs #20. There isnt enough credit being given to the ranking of the team they are beating. Beat #20 on road get more points, beat #47 at home not so much
The problem is we don't see the metrics behind the ranking. It could be 0.05 difference between 10 ranks, and then 1.5 between the next 10 ranks. The number of ranks you move up or down can only really make sense in relation to a metric we aren't given access to - the actual output value from the algorithm.
Only dropped to 92 today, as NET was expecting a blowout. I think Kenpom has us at about 24.5 pts beyond Purdue per 100 possessions, so 28 isn't especially far off expectation, unfortunately.
I would say pretty likely. Big 10 likely get 5 to NIT with Iowa/Maryland/Minnesota /OSU competing for the top 2 spots guaranteed which will go by net ranking
I think there's one path to the tourney unfortunately and it involves cutting down nets in Minneapolis.
We'd get in if we win our last five and then beat Purdue or Illinois in the B1G tourney. In this case, we wouldn't have to cut down the nets.
Wow, you think the Terps can make the NIT? I hope so; I thought it was out of reach at this point...
The top 2 net schools not in ncaa are automatically taken from the power 6. Maryland is close pending OSU/Minny
Maryland has a shot at it.
NCAA (6): Purdue, Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Nebraska (I think another road W would ensure it at this point but that stomping of Indiana should be enough, barring an implosion), Northwestern
Bubble (2): Minnesota (net #72), Iowa (net #63) - both have multiple Q1 opportunities to make a run at it
NIT options (4):
#67 Ohio State (at Michigan State, Nebraska, Michigan, at Rutgers)
#71 Maryland
#92 Rutgers
Not likely:
#97 Penn State (13-14; Indiana, at Iowa, at Minnesota, Maryland)
#105 Indiana
#119 Michigan
I figured Maryland's NET ranking was more like 140 than 71. Not sure how they could be that high; they haven't won a game in a long time, it seems...
Surprised we fell so little. Edey not playing the last 10 minutes saved us 5 to 10 spots
You've got two difficult games up next (at Rutgers, Northwestern) and two that may be easier (Indiana, at Penn State). It could take 3-1 for Maryland to finish in the top two slots, assuming one of Minnesota/Iowa does not dance. Even with that, Ohio State is right in that mix.
