Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
Does a win. In the road Sunday give us a chance to make a bigger jump ? Feels like the NET has gotta be in the 60s for us to even get sniff at the bubble
If we go 6-1 our NET will be fine. Road wins over Minnesota, Nebraska, and Wisconsin will bump us up.
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We need to sit in the class that mountain west gives its teams because no one manipulates the NET more than that league.
I thought we got in with a net in the 70’s one year. And didn’t get in last year with a net of like 45.
As kcg mentioned, though, our net will likely be fine if we win enough remaining games to get in. 6-3 (including conference tourney) is the bare minimum imo, but others who know more may disagree.
Once we play Purdue again it'll jump also I think. Look at Minny jumping 8 spots in a loss to them.
If Rutgers goes 5-2 in the last 7 the NET will take care of itself. The following is for a historical reminder.
Selection Sunday Net:
22/23 - 40 - OUT
21/22 - 77 - IN
20/21 - 38 - IN
19/20 - 30(Final NET) - No Tourney
If Rutgers goes 5-2 in the last 7 the NET will take care of itself. The following is for a historical reminder.
Selection Sunday Net:
22/23 - 40 - OUT
21/22 - 77 - IN
20/21 - 38 - IN
19/20 - 30(Final NET) - No Tourney
A three-point win against NW wasn’t going to move the needle much. KenPom had it as a Pick Em essentially last night
The Mountain West wins their nonconference games, plain and simple.
New Mexico's only non-conference loss was to St. Mary's, meanwhile they beat: 154, 134, 76, 172, 116, and 75.
Colorado State's only non-conference loss was also to St. Mary's. They beat: 76, 167, 188, 93, 16, 37, 57, and 173.
Utah State's only non-conference loss was to Bradley (#71). They beat: 96, 75, 74, 150, and 116.
Nevada's only non-conference loss was to Drake (#56). They beat: 33, 57, 157, 173, 171, 158, and 137.
San Diego State lost to #14 BYU and #55 Grand Canyon. They beat: 18, 21, 75, 91, 107, 110, 159, 187.
Boise State lost to #28 Clemson, #62 Virginia Tech, #38 Washington State, and #47 Butler. They beat: 74, 81, 21, 70, and 160.
Not a single one of their top 6 teams lost to a team rated worse than #71 and they played a LOT of of Q1-Q3 games. Sprinkle in some 30-40 point blowouts over cupcakes and that's how you are rewarded by the NET.
A huge positive is we have played 11 Q1 games(3-8) out of 24(14-10), and 15 Q1/2(3-1) out of 24 total.
We still have three more Q1s, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin and @ Nebraska and 1, possibly 2, more Q2s @ Minnesota and vs Ohio St. Minnesota could finish the season above 75 the way they are playing and Ohio St could stay above 75.
14, 15 Q1s out of 31 at the end of the season buys a lot of cred to the Selection Committee esp if we win #4 or #5.
We still have three more Q1s, @ Purdue, @ Wisconsin and @ Nebraska and 1, possibly 2, more Q2s @ Minnesota and vs Ohio St. Minnesota could finish the season above 75 the way they are playing and Ohio St could stay above 75.
14, 15 Q1s out of 31 at the end of the season buys a lot of cred to the Selection Committee esp if we win #4 or #5.
Nobody can complain about bids for that conference this year. They deserve them. A-10 and AAC replace them ad this year’s bubble frauds.
And don’t forget about the BIG tourney. I get it - the committee doesn’t seem to treat those games as opportunities to pick up signature wins but in our case (where we’ve added a kid who is our top scorer and assists), just increasing the sheer volume of wins in additional non-cupcake games can’t hurt and if nothing else, would help the computer numbers.
I expected a 5 spot improvement and we only got 3. As others have mentioned, our prior opponents had a rough night so that didn't help.
I'm absolutely stunned that Minnesota got an 8 spot improvement off of an 8 point loss. So if we somehow beat Purdue on their home court, will we move up 20 spots?
However the Mountain West is rated 7th this year...how can they get 6 bids while 6th rated Pac 12 quite possibly gets only 2
Rankings aren't linear - we don't know how tightly clustered the group just above/below us is, or how tightly clustered the group just above Minnesota was. They don't give a numeric value, just a ranking.
However, since the NET rankings are based on net efficiency, with adjustment for level of opponent and home/away, a strong performance against Purdue (which has a very high net efficiency) would be the biggest single-game opportunity for upward movement in NET that we have ahead of us.
I don’t disagree. The Mountain West has it figured out. Essentially play no one out of conference and if you do it’s ok to lose. And generally speaking they avoid playing horrible teams. But, my point still stands, outside of SD State the entire league has like 3 wins against OOC teams in the top 75.
Speaking of P12, does UCLA have life? They were horrible earlier in the year but they’ve won 6 in a row, sit in 3rd in P12 and arguably could end up with like 19-20 wins.
I don't disagree necessarily. The MWC has four teams rated 176 or worse; the Pac-12 has zero. Having conference games where you can take your foot off the gas is probably not well-accounted for when reviewing this stuff.
Cincinnati is #35 at KenPom and Colorado State is #36. At Bracket Matrix, Colorado State is the top 7 seed and Cincinnati is not in the field.
If you dropped Colorado State into the B12 they'd probably get Cincinnati's results. This is one reason I'm not necessarily 100% opposed to tournament expansion or restructuring. Fifteen years ago a Cincinnati team of this caliber (#36 at KenPom) got an 8 seed because they went 17-12 (9-7) in Conference USA.
They didn’t play no one. They deserve to be well positioned for the NCAAs this year. Full stop. It’s hard to lose as few of the kind of games those teams played as they did - and they collected some quality wins over tournament teams to go along with it.
none right now because they have zero quad one wins and zero wins vs teams in the field. Their best win is Colorado who is only on the bubble because of their net rating.
I suppose UCLA can win their last 6 and get in serious contention meaning win vs Utah, Arizona at home and sweeping the Washington schools on the road..good luck
Cincys resume does not impress me at all really. They are riding a win at an inflated BYU and wins at Tex Tech and home over TCU. Thats all really. 4-8 vs Q1/2 and 7-9 vs Q1/2/3....ooc sos of 300 with best win there Eastern Washington
Right, that's where I'm going with it. Drop one of the lower MWC schools currently IN in the tournament into the Big 12 and I don't think they make it. I don't know how you fix this or if it's even worth fixing.
I think the quad 2 area is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too generous for road games....so absolute trash schools in the Pac 12, AAC, MWC, SEC count and even schools like Michigan count as Q2 games...that is just wrong. I get the idea of its tougher to win on the road but you cannot tell me that winning at Michigan is the same value of winning a home game over Northwestern.
The Pac 12 is such a sham conference built on nothing. Seriously how can they have dropped off that much. The Mountain West at least schedules tougher
The Pac 12 is such a sham conference built on nothing. Seriously how can they have dropped off that much. The Mountain West at least schedules tougher
Ok - I’ll flip it for you. Nevada is 19-6. They currently are NOT projected to be in the field. They beat TCU by double digits on a neutral floor. How many B12 bubblers do you honestly believe would have a better record than 19-6 with the schedule that Nevada played? Already played home and home vs SDU, @ Utah St, @ New Mexico, @ Washington, the neutral game vs TCU, neutral vs Drake, another neutral game vs Georgia Tech. On average, major conference bubble teams are not doing better than 4-4 on average in these 8 games - no way. You think it’s so easy to only lose 2 the rest of the way. That includes home games against Boise, Utah State, New Mexico, Webber - other tricky road games in places with extreme altitudes. I’ll tell you right now we would have more than 6 losses with Nevada’s schedule - with certainty. Again - in case it wasn’t clear the first time - Nevada projects OUT.
Green - what does WAB say?
Bracket Matrix projects Nevada in but your point is valid I think. Weighing this stuff is very very tricky.
I don't necessarily disagree, but the records against B1G teams kind of points to them being the same. Michigan is 2-6 at home and Northwestern is 1-6 on the road.
I was going by BAC, our master bracketologists. He said yesterday they are odd team out for now.
well I have them in today because Utahs resume is weak
also the bracket matrix guys are not doing their homework. South Florida is the AQ right now, those are the rules, they shouldnt be pencilling in FAU as the AQ from AAC
also the bracket matrix guys are not doing their homework. South Florida is the AQ right now, those are the rules, they shouldnt be pencilling in FAU as the AQ from AAC
Northwestern has beat 4-5 NCAA teams what has Michigan done. They have an upset over Wisconsin
honestly Utah State is the one MWC school with the flimsiest resume
I understand how the system works, but it doesn't change the fact that outside of San Diego State, the top 6 teams only have wins OOC against Creighton, Colorado Washington and BC. At the same time, they have losses to Creighton, St. Mary's (x4), V Tech, Butler, Wash St, FSU and Richmond. But, once again, I get it -- they manage to avoid the horrific losses.
Who made the rules? The AQ doesn't go to the regular season champion. The team with the best chance to win the conference tournament should be penciled in as the AQ.
its always been done by the tv bracketologist you slot the team leading the conference...you know why....brackets are made if the selection show was today, that is why the team at the top of the standings get the AQ not who you predict might win
There’s no good way to account for the road games really because not all road venue is created equally. In fairness, most major conference venues are ghost towns when their basketball teams aren’t good.
The MWC bubbler resumes from the ski towns always bother me when a home win over SDSU stands out as their signature win. Nobody’s body adjusts in one day to the change in altitude to be able to run up and down the court with the same intensity when you live at sea level. Not without altitude meds and I believe they are considered performance enhancing and banned. It’s a huge advantage for those schools. I bet SDSU learned their lesson and won’t schedule another home and home with Grand Canyon.
plus they have only beaten 2 schools within their conference not a big deal really..its a weak resume driven solely by metrics
2x boise state and colorado state
You can’t eliminate Nevada from the picture when looking at the conference. They beat TCU, Georgia Tech, and Washington. Also - you can’t ignore wins over teams like San Francisco who beat Minnesota by 18 points and only has 6 losses. Games against those types of teams are real wins too.
Also - if you do what you just did for the second tier of the BIG after Purdue and Illinois what do you think the picture would look like? NW would have a win over Dayton but losses to Miss St (and that ugly one to Chicago St) for example.
