Daily Tracking the NET: now 102

[BillyC80]

Yes.

EDIT: I mean there's probably some limit to how efficient you can be while losing every game but I still believe the answer to the point you're making is "yes". That team will be viewed the same (as an opponent) as a team that had more wins but the same general efficiency metrics.

Thanks flux, appreciate your patience with all my metrics questions.

I just can’t shake my disdain for efficiency as an important factor in all of this.

It reminds me of a football team that racks up yardage between the 20 yard lines, but consistently stalls and has to settle for field goals.

They lose most of their games but their stats are great (total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, completion percentage, number of first downs, least penalized, etc.).

Any metric that gives one team an advantage over another team with more wins versus equal or better competition should not be used to ‘level the playing field’ even a little bit.

 

[fluoxetine]

It reminds me of a football team that racks up yardage between the 20 yard lines, but consistently stalls and has to settle for field goals.

They lose most of their games but their stats are great (total yards, passing yards, rushing yards, completion percentage, number of first downs, least penalized, etc.).

But is that team actually bad? A lot of the time these teams that put up a lot of points / yards / whatever but don't have this reflected in their W/L stats do go on to win a lot of games later on. An example would be UConn last season, there was a board consensus here that they were obviously not that good after taking a rough string of losses and that kenpom was stupid for having them as high as #6 or whatever.

Again, I'm NOT arguing that the team should be rewarded with a playoff spot. But, going forward, in most situations, the teams that have a lot of great stats but lose close games tend to do better than teams with bad stats and a lot of close wins.

 

[BillyC80]

But is that team actually bad? A lot of the time these teams that put up a lot of points / yards / whatever but don't have this reflected in their W/L stats do go on to win a lot of games later on. An example would be UConn last season, there was a board consensus here that they were obviously not that good after taking a rough string of losses and that kenpom was stupid for having them as high as #6 or whatever.

Again, I'm NOT arguing that the team should be rewarded with a playoff spot. But, going forward, in most situations, the teams that have a lot of great stats but lose close games tend to do better than teams with bad stats and a lot of close wins.

I’ll quote Bill Parcells: “You are what your record says you are.”

 

[fluoxetine]

I’ll quote Bill Parcells: “You are what your record says you are.”

I mean, that's nice and all, but Bill Parcell's opinion on this is not particularly relevant. Football coaching and statistical evaluation of football teams are not related skills.

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

I’ll quote Bill Parcells: “You are what your record says you are.”

I’m less bothered about metrics that only factor it in for opponents. There’s no incentive for a team (neither coaches nor players) to aim for style points. Your own metrics are based specifically on whether you win or lose. Everyone else’s own metrics are too. So arbitrary style points only matter with respect to whether you happened to play teams that chose to unload their bench in garbage time and things like that.

 

[RUChoppin]

Efficiency is a good metric to measure how "good" a team is - especially when comparing two teams in an attempt to predict the outcome of a game played between them. Kenpom is designed to be predictive, and he clearly states on his site that it's not meant to be used to measure resumes with regard to gauging accomplishments.

On balance, I'd much rather play an 18-3 team with a worse adjusted net efficiency than my own than play a 12-9 team with a better net efficiency than my own - because it's likely I'd fare better against the former than the latter (as a real world example, I'd rather face 21-5 Highpoint than 13-11 Villanova).

But when looking at resumes from a "what have you accomplished" perspective, the former team obviously has a much better claim for selection.

Which is why the selection committee looks at multiple things, and doesn't just pick based on your NET rank. Teams might get into "Quad 1" with a strong net efficiency against strong teams... but that's why it's important look at "wins vs Q1" and not just whether you are "in Q1". Along with wins away from home, etc, etc.

Oklahoma was considered a Q1 road game last year and finished (15-17) with no postseason. That doesn't mean they weren't a tough out, though.

If they just went by a team's NET ranking, we'd have been a lock last year and left out the prior.

 

[fatsam98]

Seton Hall blowing out Xavier at home.. up 47-25 at the half.

Good for our Q1 record

 

[Scarlet Blind]

The reason we dropped two spots
Syracuse winning at home vs UNC, 88-79 UNC was favored by -8
George Mason beat GWU by 23.

Seton Hall 18 pt win vs Xavier should move them a few spots above 75.
Ken Pom 69 to 64

 

[fatsam98]

In a game witnessed by dozens, Maryland (81 net) show up down the stretch at Xfinity and come back to beat Iowa by 12.

Should be inching toward a Q1 road win for us... although I have zero faith they'll end up there when all is said and done this season.

Side note, Perkins said something to crowd and got t'ed up. Lack of crowd noise weirdly benefitting Maryland haha

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Down 1 to 89, UMass win @ Richmond 69-59, 93 to 87
Maryland up 6, 81 to 75, 12pt win vs Iowa
Seton Hall up 8, 75 to 67, 18 pt win vs Xavier

RU Q1 3-8 Q2 2-1 Q3 2-1 Q4 6-0 SOR 71

Alot of teams closely bunched 51 to 100

 

[Zak57]

Dropped a spot to 89 but picked up a 3rd Q1 W. Maryland now 75.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

It seems silly that the Q1 win stat that can be so critical is also somewhat arbitrary as we are bouncing between one and three banked Q1 wins - but that's the world we live in today.

 

[BillyC80]

Dropped a spot to 89 but picked up a 3rd Q1 W. Maryland now 75.

And they’ll drop to Q2 after we beat them. Such is Quad life.

 

[bac2therac]

Its a Q1 win for now but the Q2 game tonight vs Northwestern is way more important and quality

 

[fatsam98]

Its a Q1 win for now but the Q2 game tonight vs Northwestern is way more important and quality

Wachtel essentially saying the same thing here

 

[mjjoyce51]

And they’ll drop to Q2 after we beat them. Such is Quad life.

If they can beat Illinois at home on Saturday then they have a good shot at finishing as a Quad 1 even with a loss @ Rutgers.

 

[goru7]

If they can beat Illinois at home on Saturday then they have a good shot at finishing as a Quad 1 even with a loss @ Rutgers.

For a team that doesn’t play at a fast tempo the fact Maryland beat Illinois and Iowa on the road and now has gotten the sweep against Iowa is really amazing. Losing that double OT game to Ohio State last weekend that they had won not once but twice will hurt them but another higher tempo team that they should have beat.
If Rutgers can win tonight , then the NCAA push between Maryland , Rutgers , Minnesota and Nebraska will be fascinating down the stretch.

 

[G- RUnit]

Firmly believe Nebraska already in and playing for record and a better seed. They look to have a fairly easy schedule.

Minnesota is 20-3 against the spread so they caught many fans off guard. Coach is like Micah last year. Played the portal so very well. Revenge game. Hope we get them.

 

[Degaz-RU]

Firmly believe Nebraska already in and playing for record and a better seed. They look to have a fairly easy schedule.

Not so sure about Nebraska. I think they're like us a few years ago, where they need a road win or two to seal the deal. They're currently 15-1 at home and 1-7 on the road (including 0-7 in Big Ten road games -- their one road win was against K-State).

That's a pretty glaring albatross on their resume, and I think they need to win one or two road games down the stretch.

 

[fatsam98]

Firmly believe Nebraska already in and playing for record and a better seed. They look to have a fairly easy schedule.

Minnesota is 20-3 against the spread so they caught many fans off guard. Coach is like Micah last year. Played the portal so very well. Revenge game. Hope we get them.

Or said another way, lots of chances for bad losses.

 

[G- RUnit]

They do remind of PSU last year. If they get hot and hit their shots they can surprise people and go father then expected.

Still ticks me off that we didn’t get any credit for sweeping PSU last year. They were a tough out.

 

[RUtrumpet92]

Not so sure about Nebraska. I think they're like us a few years ago, where they need a road win or two to seal the deal. They're currently 15-1 at home and 1-7 on the road (including 0-7 in Big Ten road games -- their one road win was against K-State).

That's a pretty glaring albatross on their resume, and I think they need to win one or two road games down the stretch.

Nebraska likely will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they finish 0-10 in conference on the road. Huge red flag if that happens. 3-6 in Q1 right now with likely no more Q1 wins unless Kansas State climbs back into the top 75 or Ohio State stays in the top 75 and they win at Columbus. If they cannot beat a B1G-worst Michigan on the road in their last regular season game...

 

[G- RUnit]

Not so sure about Nebraska. I think they're like us a few years ago, where they need a road win or two to seal the deal. They're currently 15-1 at home and 1-7 on the road (including 0-7 in Big Ten road games -- their one road win was against K-State).

That's a pretty glaring albatross on their resume, and I think they need to win one or two road games down the stretch.

K State beat Kansas at home. For Nebraska to blow them out on the road, that’s a fairly decent road win. I think they are a good story as well which has to help.

 

[bac2therac]

Nebraska likely will be sweating it out on Selection Sunday if they finish 0-10 in conference on the road. Huge red flag if that happens. 3-6 in Q1 right now with likely no more Q1 wins unless Kansas State climbs back into the top 75 or Ohio State stays in the top 75 and they win at Columbus. If they cannot beat a B1G-worst Michigan on the road in their last regular season game...

if they are 0-10 on the road they will not be going to the tournament

 

[Degaz-RU]

K State beat Kansas at home. For Nebraska to blow them out on the road, that’s a fairly decent road win. I think they are a good story as well which has to help.

No doubt Nebraska's road win over K-State is a really good win. But if they finish 1-10 on the road -- including 0-10 in the B1G -- that one road win won't be enough to put them in the tournament.

I'm not sure what the bogey is for their last 3 conference road games, but I would think they need 2 wins to feel safe, whereas if it's 1 win, they're sweating it out.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

if they are 0-10 on the road they will not be going to the tournament

I'm hoping the Huskers go 0-10 on the road. It could be what RU needs to sneak into the tourney. I know it's said that conference affiliation does not matter when the teams are selected for the Big Dance, but I have my doubts.

 

[bac2therac]

I'm hoping the Huskers go 0-10 on the road. It could be what RU needs to sneak into the tourney. I know it's said that conference affiliation does not matter when the teams are selected, but I have my doubts.

Especially if Ru sweeps not that the head to head is a criteria per se but 19-12 with road wins and better ooc sos are the advantage

 

[LeapinLou]

@bac2therac - I know we're not the only game being played tonight, but what's your NET prediction if we win/lose tonight:

I'll say we go from 89 to:
blowout win - 81
win - 84
loss - 92
blowout loss - 93

 

[bac2therac]

Blowout loss could send us back to 100 but probably on target with the rest

 

[Zak57]

What our WAB currently? Or do we need @Greene Rice FIG to answer.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

What our WAB currently? Or do we need @Greene Rice FIG to answer.

top secret...only I know.

-.9

Guess what...next 2 games
Mr. bubble gets +.39 for beating NW at home AND +.51 for winning at Minnesota

That would move our WAB to 0

 

[bac2therac]

top secret...only I know.

-.9

Guess what...next 2 games
Mr. bubble gets +.39 for beating NW at home AND +.51 for winning at Minnesota

That would move our WAB to 0

I disagree with that

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

need to go 2-1 in the next 3

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I disagree with that

nothing to agree with or disagree...no one is making an argument WAB is something committee looks at.

You shouldn't be texting and driving as I know you want to get one of those 500 food vouchers and are on the road

 

[bac2therac]

nothing to agree with or disagree...no one is making an argument WAB is something committee looks at.

You shouldn't be texting and driving as I know you want to get one of those 500 food vouchers and are on the road

Ive got my voucher and going to town on Aunt Annes nuggets

 

[BillyC80]

top secret...only I know.

-.9

Guess what...next 2 games
Mr. bubble gets +.39 for beating NW at home AND +.51 for winning at Minnesota

That would move our WAB to 0

Does that mean that finishing 10-10 in conference puts us squarely on the bubble, you Cwazy WABbit?

 

[Scarlet Blind]

Ken Pom stayed at 82
Torvik jumped from 92 to 87

Probably minimal gain tomorrow in NET, 2 or 3 at most.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Ive got my voucher and going to town on Aunt Annes nuggets

You deserve it after your killer workout at planet today

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Does that mean that finishing 10-10 in conference puts us squarely on the bubble, you Cwazy WABbit?

Yup. +.1 if opponents rankings stay same. But WAB isnt used by committee

 

[PSAL_Hoops]

Ken Pom stayed at 82
Torvik jumped from 92 to 87

Probably minimal gain tomorrow in NET, 2 or 3 at most.

LIU and Stonehill lost again. Thankfully Bryant hung on at home against a dreadful Maine team or we might’ve lost a Q3 win to Q4. Not a good day for our opponents on a whole so that will factor in tomorrow too.