I simply disagree with that approach. If that puts me on the opposite side of Joe Lunardi and Jerry Palm... I can live with that.
Daily Tracking the NET: now 102
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
They don’t have a great resume but they have a grand total of 4 losses. If they don’t win at least one of their next two against SDSU and Colorado State they will take a hard fall.
Also note that Boise beat St Marys. You had that wrong. That win is helping the conference overall.
I'm not arguing that Michigan is better than Northwestern. Just that Michigan at home is comparable to Northwestern on the road. Michigan at home has one win against an NCAA team and Northwestern on the road has none. I bet very few teams actually have what could be labeled as a "tournament resume" if we're just looking at road games against Power 6/NCAA teams.
Missed that one. Good catch. BTW, St. Mary's the best team in the MWC. Ha.
As for the B1G, since you mentioned it, outside of Purdue there are still wins against FAU, Baylor, KSU, UVA, Dayton, etc. The MWC has one win over St. Mary's.
I guess not but do you think the way we do bracketology now, which is the way it's been done for 20 years, is the best way? Nothing about it could be improved?
for starters there should be no bracketlogy before Feb 1...just like it used to be until several years ago
secondly with respect to AQ it creates continuity...why should I not slot in a third place in the America East over the first place team or a surging 4th place team in the MAAC because I think they will be the best team at the end of the year. Well lets just throw darts at the smaller conferences
secondly with respect to AQ it creates continuity...why should I not slot in a third place in the America East over the first place team or a surging 4th place team in the MAAC because I think they will be the best team at the end of the year. Well lets just throw darts at the smaller conferences
Marshall and St. Louis are down this year but normally near the top of their conference. Bradley and Santa Clara are good teams that you probably have not watched. They are not at the bottom of their conferences. They tried to schedule competitive games where they had a chance to win. No need to shot on these Mountain West teams , who are all pretty decent. One or more of them are on CBS Sports Network almost every night. Take a peek.
In how many tries? Lots of losses.
By the way - Dayton doesn’t exactly have any great wins either. They have 4 losses. Their resume is good for the same reason as Utah State’s is basically. Win volume. On a given day Bryant beat FAU on the road. It’s not so easy to have only 4 losses when you don’t play any teams like LIU. Mostly all teams with a pulse.
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Not as many as you think -- Marquette, Tenn (x2), Arizona, Miss St, Duke, Creighton. Again, I am focusing on the top 5 (after Purdue)
I'm not sh*tting on them, but I think that league is vastly overrated and has been for years. I guess it comes down to the fact that I think Purdue/Illinois/Wisconsin/NW/Mich St/Nebraska are notably better than SD State/Utah St/New Mexico/Boise/UNLV/Colorado State. That's all.
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For the little conferences it doesn't matter but for the AAC it's literally creating one fewer bid because we have to pretend USF will be in the field.
Not this year and frankly it is quite debatable. The BIG 10 is really down this year. Other than Purdue , everyone else has laid some eggs and are beatable. I am referring to Illinois , Wisconsin , Northwestern and Michigan State. I have seen those teams have a number of excellent games and then about 4-5 duds. For some reason we cannot beat Illinois and Iowa up tempo teams but Maryland who doesn’t play uptempo can. We match up with Purdue ,, Wisconsin and Michigan State really well but not the others. It is hard to tell how the MWest would do against the BIg 10 as there are so many different styles. But one thing I can tell you , the BIG 10 is down and I fear no team this year and that includes Purdue.
I’m not looking to pump up the B1G this year either. I started this as a comment on the MWC, which, again, I think annually gets too much love. That said, Illinois and Iowa have our number so I’d like to avoid them in the B1G tournament.
sometimes its good to pretend to account for conference tourney upsets
doesnt change the fact if the season ended today, USF is the top of the conference
MWC breakdown
18 SDSt(17-6) 4-6 3-0 6-0 4-0(2-0), OOC 14 SOS 14 SOR 21
22 NMex(19-5) 3-2 1-2 6-1 9-0(1-0), *OOC 270* SOS 100 *SOR 46*
27 UTSt(19-4) 2-3 5-1 4-0 8-0(2-0), OOC 188 SOS 84 SOR 24
30 ColoSt(17-6) 3-5 4-0 5-1 4-0(2-0), OOC 89 SOS 48 SOR 38
45 BoiseSt(14-8) 5-6 3-1 2-1 4-0(2-0), OOC 27 SOS 13 *SOR 53*
47 Nevada(18-6) 5-3 0-2 5-1 8-0(1-0), *OOC 260* SOS 85 *SOR 54*
Right now, the teams in the best shape are San Diego St and Colorado St. Utah St is 3rd. The other 3 still have work to do.
18 SDSt(17-6) 4-6 3-0 6-0 4-0(2-0), OOC 14 SOS 14 SOR 21
22 NMex(19-5) 3-2 1-2 6-1 9-0(1-0), *OOC 270* SOS 100 *SOR 46*
27 UTSt(19-4) 2-3 5-1 4-0 8-0(2-0), OOC 188 SOS 84 SOR 24
30 ColoSt(17-6) 3-5 4-0 5-1 4-0(2-0), OOC 89 SOS 48 SOR 38
45 BoiseSt(14-8) 5-6 3-1 2-1 4-0(2-0), OOC 27 SOS 13 *SOR 53*
47 Nevada(18-6) 5-3 0-2 5-1 8-0(1-0), *OOC 260* SOS 85 *SOR 54*
Right now, the teams in the best shape are San Diego St and Colorado St. Utah St is 3rd. The other 3 still have work to do.
its not about predicting future games. Its about creating a bracket if the season ended RIGHT NOW THIS MINUTE
I’m not sure what your point is. The teams your comparing the MWC teams to - Illinois, Wisconsin and Michigan State aren’t close to bubble teams.
Compare them to Nebraska, NW, Rutgers, etc. Teams that would be vying for those last spots on selection day. Those teams didn’t play a collection of Tennessee and Arizona types in non-conference. BAC is probably right that things will work themselves out with someone losing a few landmine games and playing their way out. But it would be pretty hard for us to get a bid over teams like Colorado State or Nevada who had good non conference wins - if we have 3+ more losses than them. Hopefully UNLV and Wyoming will win some games against the others.
My point is that the MWC largely build their resumes playing each other. They currently have 6 teams in the top 47 of the NET, which is pretty amazing for a league that is not rated as a top 5 conference nor playing and winning a lot of big time games OOC. That’s more top 50 teams than the B1G, ACC, and same as Big East. Again, I tip my cap to the MWC because they are winning the NET game more than any other conference.
No - they didn’t. Only two of the 6 teams did that and one of those teams happen to be at the top of the standings (Utah State for now is going to be the projected AQ).
4 of the other 5 MWC teams in contention have better non-conference resumes than Rutgers and 2-5 less losses.
Rutgers - 10 losses - win @ Seton Hall (Bryant next best OOC win)
Nevada - 6 losses - wins TCU (Neutral), @ Wash, Georgia Tech (neutral), (Weber, Montana and @ Hawaii are better wins than Bryant too)
Colorado State - 6 losses - wins Creighton (neutral), wash (neutral), BC (neutral), Colorado. (Louisiana Tech is better than Bryant too)
Boise St - 8 losses - wins St Mary’s (neutral), VCU (neutral), (SF and North Texas are WAY better than Bryant)
NM - 6 losses - only team to meet the criteria for your argument. They played a weak non-conference but still - UC Irvine (76), Louisiana Tech (82) and @ Santa Clara (110) are all better than Bryant. If you pair these with wins against the above teams and their home win over SDSU (who nobody would dispute is legit) and they are a 9 loss team vs us 13 or 14 losses on selection day well…
UNLV - 9 losses - not close to a tourney team but beat Creighton (neutral), Akron and Hofstra also better wins than Bryant
I’m comparing these teams to us - but you could pick a lot of major conference teams and find that their resumes are entirely built on beating the teams in their own conference and they do not have better collections of non-conference wins than the above teams. What your suggesting just isn’t true THIS YEAR.
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I understand the exercise but not time to compare to us. We still have work to do. Thats why I was looking at the top of league because those teams already have the resume.
But, again, it simply comes down to regardless of the metrics, I don’t believe that the top 6 teams in MWC should basically be auto bids. I get it — they played a few key OOC games and had mixed results. And then they played a bunch of blah teams that somehow look halfway decent on a computer but really aren’t much. And bingo, somehow the league is dominating the NET.
To be clear - I’m not saying you’re wrong on the numbers. I get that maybe this is the year the MWC makes it happen. But the league is known for being an annual tournament flop (0-8 last 2 years - assuming I counted correctly) outside of the SD state run last year. So, I admit, I have a bias against the league.
But only SDSU is in the neighborhood of the teams you are comparing them to. What you did is apples and oranges. I know you excluded Purdue but Illinois and Wisconsin are candidates to hear their names revealed in the top 16 today. The rest of the MWC teams will be 7 seeds at best if they got in.
Princeton is down to #60 and has been slowly dropping. Kenpom has them at 72 and Bart at 93. Really need them to stay in Q2. Penn St is already a Q3 loss, really don't need a second.
To be clear also - I was very vocal in feeling they were overrated last year and in other prior seasons. That’s unfortunately not this year’s reality. What the top half of the bracket did against real teams and borderline real teams is legit this time. So if there is parity they will get the benefit of the doubt and this time they should. Hopefully there won’t be parity down the stretch.
Princeton still has home games vs Yale and Cornell. If they win out, at worst they’ll share the Ivy season title with Yale.
Honestly don't care about the ivy title, just that they don't slip to Q3. Unfortunately, it's their win over us which is the biggest feather in their cap.
Minnesota was a 17 point underdog and was within 2 points with 4 minutes left in the game. That type of performance is going to move their metrics up, because they outperformed the expected results.
All RU has to do is stay within single digits at Purdue and they'll get the same bump.
They should be favored in all their remaining games so I don't see them slipping 40 spots.
Princeton is favored by 4 at home vs Yale tonight. Huge game as Yale has yet to lose an Ivy game.
They've been dropping while winning, because they're not beating bad opponents by enough. If they lose to anyone other than Yale, they'll likely take a big hit.
Of the four teams they've played with a barttorvik ranking in double digits, they've lost three and only beaten us.
Up to 84
Minnesota is 82
Maryland holds at 75
Bryant barely hanging in as a Quad 3 is down to 157
Minnesota is 82
Maryland holds at 75
Bryant barely hanging in as a Quad 3 is down to 157
The smaller conference teams like St Bonaventure, Dayton, New Mexico are so vastly over rated on Net. For the most part, they beat nobody and accumulated wins over bad teams. This whole quad thing is the reason. They are beating teams that are also vastly over rated hence their NET is much better than it should be. Teams that don’t play any type of competition should have to beat a team like Maryland or Indiana in order to qualify for any type of consideration.
You’re predicting either way. The regular season champion doesn’t get an autobid. So you’re just predicting that the current leader will win the conference tournament. That’s not fundamentally different than predicting that the highest Kenpom team in the conference will win the tournament or anything else, except that the highest Kenpom will be right more often in reality.
MCNeese State just moved up bigly to NET#52 after blowing out two quad fours this past week.
im not predicting anything, since we have no clue what will happen in conference tourney play. Its just a good rule to take the conference tourney leader and put them as AQ, If I was predicting I would predict FAU to win the AAC AQ and not USF who I have as current AQ. IMO, the conference tourneys should go away and the regular season champs get the automatic bid.
Yup. They have played 15 Q4 games and are 14-1. They have a good win @ VCU and they won @ Michigan for whatever that’s worth. That earns you a 52 ranking I guess.
I actually agree with this both those tourneys are pretty fun. They just beat up teams ahead of the NCAAs which isn’t ideal
But you are predicting. If the "season ended today" who would be the AQ? It's a question without an answer. So anything you put there is in some sense a prediction; just because your rule is "current leader" doesn't make it not a prediction.
