End of Maryland-Michigan game

[Upstream]

Maryland is down 2 and hits a perfect 3 pointer to take a 1 point lead with 3.5 seconds left. Michigan makes a half-court pass to Abdur-Rahkman who is tripped as he drives to the basket. He hits 2 free throws to give Michigan the 1 point lead and win. Heartbreaking loss for the Terps.

 

[shields]

Wrote in another thread that Michigan made like 8 threes in first 10 minutes of 2nd half. We need shooters.

 

[BigEastPhil]

Wrote in another thread that Michigan made like 8 threes in first 10 minutes of 2nd half. We need shooters.

Shooters for next year (hopefully): Mathis; Kiss and an improved Thiam

 

[biazza38]

Horrible job by Maryland not putting someone on the inbounder. Dumb

 

[bac2therac]

Looks like the the top tier has developed. You have Purdue, OSU, MSU at the top and then Michigan a cut below probably with a healthy Minnesota who beat PSU tonight. Then the rest are battling it out. Maryland would seem to have the best shot to make a NCAA run but Indiana, Penn State and Nebraska all have shots,,,then again maybe none of them can

 

[Russ Wood]

Wrote in another thread that Michigan made like 8 threes in first 10 minutes of 2nd half. We need shooters.

I think they were 2 of 9 in the first half.

 

[Vegas pj]

Michigan missed 2 FTs that led to that MD 3. Kid could have iced the ame from the line. Pressure.

 

[TDIrish27]

Really against giving clean look to inbound passer but Mark Turgeon knows more than I do.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Looks like the the top tier has developed. You have Purdue, OSU, MSU at the top and then Michigan a cut below probably with a healthy Minnesota who beat PSU tonight. Then the rest are battling it out. Maryland would seem to have the best shot to make a NCAA run but Indiana, Penn State and Nebraska all have shots,,,then again maybe none of them can

I agree with most of this. I think you are premature putting OSU in the top tier. however kenpom agrees...and i know you aren't as much a fan as i am with kenpom.

Kenpom tiering
2 Purdue
6 Michigan state

16 OSU
19 Michigan

35 Maryland

56 PSU
63 Minny

EVERYONE ELSE BUT RU
76 NW
80 Wisky
86 Nebby
87 Iowa
89 Indy
93 Illinoisy

133 Rutgers

 

[KnightsofChrome]

Shooters for next year (hopefully): Mathis; Kiss and an improved Thiam

I'm really starting to see the potential for Thiam. It's like night and day from last year. He has the potential to be a very good scorer in this league. He is already one of the better Defensive players on this team, and can lock down a good shooter.
But, I also believe that for him to become the overall offensive player, which he flashes from time to time, the coaches have to make him a go to guy, which will elevate his confidence. And, it has to happen this year.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

I wish i saw it....I really do.

we are currently rated 277th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Sanders and Baker play 80% of minutes
Issa 69%
freeman 65%
eUGENE AND mIKE 50%
3 centers 82%

At some point you have to ask why are we so bad offensively. multiple players have to be woefully bad to get this number.

 

[KnightsofChrome]

I wish i saw it....I really do.

we are currently rated 277th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Sanders and Baker play 80% of minutes
Issa 69%
freeman 65%
eUGENE AND mIKE 50%
3 centers 82%

At some point you have to ask why are we so bad offensively. multiple players have to be woefully bad to get this number.

If I look at that group for next year, I build my team around Baker, Issa, and Eugene, the rest mixed bunch, that won't elevate this team for next year. The key phrase here is "next year." You might wonder why I don't put Sanders in that group, assuming he comes back. Because, I don't think he will ever play the role which elevates this team. Now, if comes back with an adjusted mentality of breaking zone press, dish off the rock, play defense, and go to the basket, only when the D gives him that, then yes come on back. But, today this team needs to move on.

 

[Russ Wood]

I wish i saw it....I really do.

we are currently rated 277th in adjusted offensive efficiency.

Sanders and Baker play 80% of minutes
Issa 69%
freeman 65%
eUGENE AND mIKE 50%
3 centers 82%

At some point you have to ask why are we so bad offensively. multiple players have to be woefully bad to get this number.

eFG% is ranked 344th
FT% ranked 343rd

Those two things drag RU down. Fortunately RU is a very good offensive rebounding team and its turnover rate is good.

That's how you get a 277 offensive efficiency ranking

 

[RUChoppin]

At some point you have to ask why are we so bad offensively. multiple players have to be woefully bad to get this number.

Does kenpom keep offensive efficiency ratings by player? Who are those on the low end of the list?

From an offensive efficiency perspective, my guess is that it's our 4-5 guys that are pulling down our numbers. You'd expect your bigs to shoot a noticeably better percentage than your guards, since they're closer to the basket... but that's not really happening.

The FG% of our perimeter guys (Baker, Sanders, Williams, Thiam) is .402, and for our interior guys (Freeman, Omoruyi, Docuoure, Sa, Doorson) it's just .416

The True Shooting % of our perimeter guys is .492, and for our interior guys it's just .469

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

eFG% is ranked 344th
FT% ranked 343rd

Those two things drag RU down. Fortunately RU is a very good offensive rebounding team and its turnover rate is good.

That's how you get a 277 offensive efficiency ranking

It is almost a statistic impossibility to be so good in OREB and TO and still be so bad offensively. Getting nothing out of your 3 and 5 offensively is almost the only way.

 

[RUChoppin]

It is almost a statistic impossibility to be so good in OREB and TO and still be so bad offensively. Getting nothing out of your 3 and 5 offensively is almost the only way.

You're ignoring the offensive inefficiency of the 4. We're getting points there, but taking a lot of shots to do it. Freeman/Omoruyi are a combined 140/334 (41.9%) and 88/152 (53.9%) from the line.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Does kenpom keep offensive efficiency ratings by player? Who are those on the low end of the list?

From an offensive efficiency perspective, my guess is that it's our 4-5 guys that are pulling down our numbers. You'd expect your bigs to shoot a noticeably better percentage than your guards, since they're closer to the basket... but that's not really happening.

The FG% of our perimeter guys (Baker, Sanders, Williams, Thiam) is .402, and for our interior guys (Freeman, Omoruyi, Docuoure, Sa, Doorson) it's just .416

The True Shooting % of our perimeter guys is .492, and for our interior guys it's just .469

The flaw in individual offensive ratings is that they don't explain the correlation of that number to usage.

Issa 115.1 with a usage of 11.2%
Shaq 110.9 with a usage of 11.1%
Williams 104.6....22.4%
geo 102.8......19.8%
eugene 95.1.....23.7%
corey 94.7.....26.3%
Duke 93.4.....16.3%
Freeman 91.2....26.6%
Sa 83.4......11.1
Souf 38.8.....11.4%

Effective FG% and assist ratio and turnover ratio are very important in the rating.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

You're ignoring the offensive inefficiency of the 4. We're getting points there, but taking a lot of shots to do it. Freeman/Omoruyi are a combined 140/334 (41.9%) and 88/152 (53.9%) from the line.

Yes, no doubt. it is possible, and maybe probable that the quality of play from the 4 is hurting more than the quantity of play from the 3 (ON OFFENSIVE END we are talking about)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

In conference play
corey 84.9
freeman 80.2
eugene 82.4
mike 102.2
geo 83.9
duke 91.5
issa 91.2
sa 65.5
shaq 111.6
souf 39.3

 

[RUChoppin]

Yes, no doubt. it is possible, and maybe probable that the quality of play from the 4 is hurting more than the quantity of play from the 3 (ON OFFENSIVE END we are talking about)

Yeah... looking at your two measures eFG% and A/TO ratio, and comparing our 3/4 guys to the rest of the team:

Thiam: .554 eFG% (2nd); 1.00 A/TO (3rd)
Omoruyi: .452 eFG% (4th); .0.85 A/TO (4th)
Williams: .448 eFG% (5th); 0.83 A/TO (5th)
Freeman: .409 eFG% (8th); 0.59 A/TO (7th)

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Yeah... looking at your two measures eFG% and A/TO ratio, and comparing our 3/4 guys to the rest of the team:

Thiam: .554 eFG% (2nd); 1.00 A/TO (3rd)
Omoruyi: .452 eFG% (4th); .0.85 A/TO (4th)
Williams: .448 eFG% (5th); 0.83 A/TO (5th)
Freeman: .409 eFG% (8th); 0.59 A/TO (7th)

OREB helps the offensive rating too.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

https://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ratings.html

 

[RUChoppin]

Yeah... looking at your two measures eFG% and A/TO ratio, and comparing our 3/4 guys to the rest of the team:

Thiam: .554 eFG% (2nd); 1.00 A/TO (3rd)
Omoruyi: .452 eFG% (4th); .0.85 A/TO (4th)
Williams: .448 eFG% (5th); 0.83 A/TO (5th)
Freeman: .409 eFG% (8th); 0.59 A/TO (7th)

And in conference play:
Thiam: .433 eFG% (2nd); 1.20 A/TO (4th)
Omoruyi: .412 eFG% (3th); .0.43 A/TO (6th)
Williams: .403 eFG% (4th); 2.33 A/TO (1st)
Freeman: .342 eFG% (8th); 0.11 A/TO (7th)

 

[RUChoppin]

OREB helps the offensive rating too.

In conference play, Freeman/Omoruyi have combined for 17 OReb, while Thiam/Williams have combined for 11.

 

[RUChoppin]

In conference play
shaq 111.6
mike 102.2
duke 91.5
issa 91.2
corey 84.9
geo 83.9
eugene 82.4
freeman 80.2
sa 65.5
souf 39.3

Resorting your list, it looks like the guys who man the 3 are ranked 2nd and 4th... while the guys who man the 4 are ranked 7th and 8th.

A lot of this comes down to inability to hit FTs, but also to trying to force the issue underneath when the shot isn't there.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Resorting your list, it looks like the guys who man the 3 are ranked 2nd and 4th... while the guys who man the 4 are ranked 7th and 8th.

A lot of this comes down to inability to hit FTs, but also to trying to force the issue underneath when the shot isn't there.

My argument is what happens to Issa's (and mike) offensive rating when you ask them to increase their usage.

 

[RUChoppin]

My argument is what happens to Issa's (and mike) offensive rating when you ask them to increase their usage.

Good question - but I'd think it's one worth answering by trying to increase their usage.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

Good question - but I'd think it's one worth answering by trying to increase their usage.

If this was a mathematical equation and it did account for changes in efficiency with changes in usage I'd think it would certainly ask for some increase in usage from Issa

 

[G- RUnit]

Back to the original string, the end of the Nebraska Illinois game was even more amazing.

 

[RU MAN]

Shooters for next year (hopefully): Mathis; Kiss and an improved Thiam

Yes, along with Baker, and Corey (if he stays).

 

[Scarlet Shack]

Forgetting stats (which I like )

Issa really is limited. Yes he much improved. But he still can’t stick it in anyways face and doesn’t have a penetration game

I would not be surprised if he quickly becomes odd man out

Sanders and baker need a running mate and help is on the way

So I expect a lot more points out of the 3 spot next year ...

 

[Russ Wood]

It is almost a statistic impossibility to be so good in OREB and TO and still be so bad offensively. Getting nothing out of your 3 and 5 offensively is almost the only way.

Well, on the one hand there are plenty of OREB opportunities. Evidently they're not being converted into Second Chance points at a high enough rate.

 

[Greene Rice FIG]

At least we aren’t turning over those 2nd chances:smiley: