I would say 2020-21 is where you kinda know. Next year is potentially more playing time shuffling. We are seeing lost minutes in years 1 and 2 with pieces like Matt Bullock, Jake Dadika and Souf Mensah. Pieces that tried but clearly not near B1G caliber.
Next year, it's year 4 of Thiam and Eugene. Truthfully, Thiam is not exposed as not able to compete night in and night out at a B1G level. So you are also seeing teams taking away Kiss as a stationary shooter....he's not a driver, despite decent footwork, he should draw fouls off the dribble....an occasional pump fake and you draw contact, get to the FT line...
Add to that, Shaq Doorson coming off the roster and you are adding 2 to 3 new pieces in Young, Mulcahy and TBD. Whomever the 3rd piece is, needs to be another dribble, shoot, pass, drive guy up front.
The signs of life on Harper, Mathis, Caleb and even Geo with an off game is enough to build around.....but asking a bunch of sophomores next year to elevate this roster, while still carrying Thiam and possibly Kiss, isn't ideal.
I think if you see the freshman continue to compete like today, next year is more development as well. If Thiam and Kiss were the caliber of players we recruited in 2018 and they were juniors, then demanding a corner to be turned would be 100% valid.
I just don't see any upside physically or overall with 30% of your current 10 player rotation, this limited or not able to generate their own offense. If the 2019 class had a Massoud or Hyatt or that caliber of player mixed with Young and Mulcahy and Thiam Kiss were plus athletes able to get baskets on occasion off the bounce or knock down more shots, then 100%, next year is turning the corner.
Listening to Pike post game with Jerry Recco etc, he said it again, "we're going to need Ron Harper, McConnell, Myles and Mathis to continue to progress". It's really key to somehow find another legit piece for 2019, without delving into that realm of what it typically takes to get those 1 or 2 pieces to push RU over the top.
If anything is to be really looked at, it's whether the staff can rebuild at this elite level, and lose out to the Wake Forest, LSU and Georgia Tech types of programs for players....never mind the high 4 or 5 star kids landing all over the place in the ACC, SEC or other spots in the B1G..