14 in the Big Ten last year, 17 if you round up from 14.8. And that In conference only. My guess is that you predict about one basket less per game.
Geo Baker ready to be the man
- Thread starter TheAtlanticFiles
- Start date
I am expecting an uptick it stats from GEO in year two but I wouldn't say he is going to be putting up star numbers.
I would predict this line for him 13.8-14.3 PPG/ 4.2-4.7 APG/ with an increase in shooting percentages.
I think that is a more than fair projection.
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4.7-5.2 assists per game would have been top 3 - 6 overall in the conference last year... I'd love that, but it would be star numbers
Come on, guys, aren’t we getting a little picky here. 14.3 but not 15? . Or do I need to turn on the sarcasm meter.
Some of you guys must do nothing but win in your fantasy leagues with these certain, pinpoint predictions.
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Here's a stat line i would expect to see most nights from Geo, with opponents focusing on him and giving Kiss, Mathis, McConnell opportunities to score. Don't be fooled by what you see below, these will be hard earned points and some will hopefully stop 7-0 or 8-0 runs by some of our opponents...
Keep in mind there's 10 B1G road games, plus at Miami, at Seton Hall, and potentially 2 B1G tournament games.
4-12 from field.....2-6 from 3 point range
3-4 from FT line...with a good home court whistle, maybe 5-6 from line
5 rebounds
4 assists
2 -3 turnovers dependent on opponent.
I have him around 12 to 13PPG, 4 assists, 4 rebounds 2.5 TO's in around 29 hard earned minutes a night....there will be some 2 of 13's from the field mixed with a couple of 7 of 16's, where he gets to 20 once in a while.
Keep in mind there's 10 B1G road games, plus at Miami, at Seton Hall, and potentially 2 B1G tournament games.
4-12 from field.....2-6 from 3 point range
3-4 from FT line...with a good home court whistle, maybe 5-6 from line
5 rebounds
4 assists
2 -3 turnovers dependent on opponent.
I have him around 12 to 13PPG, 4 assists, 4 rebounds 2.5 TO's in around 29 hard earned minutes a night....there will be some 2 of 13's from the field mixed with a couple of 7 of 16's, where he gets to 20 once in a while.
Realistic and a depressing all at the same time. It will be hard to win if our best player regularly shoots 33% from the field, as you predict.
I have higher hopes. I mean, he already averaged 10.8 ppg as a true freshman last year, and he wasn't the primary option. Plus he had alot of 1-8 FG type games because he was a true freshman, which I assume he will minimize this year.
I HAVE to think he will improve by more than just 1.2 to 2.2 ppg. I am banking on 14-15 ppg on average over the course of the year, with 3.5 assists and 4 rebounds.
Well, we’re nickeling and diming one another, playing with Monopoly money. A healthy Geo imo plays 4 mins more and scores one basket more thanHawk thinks. Who knows. Really, no one would be shocked wth anything from 12-16 ppg.
4-12 is not a stat line I expect to see most nights. You really think he's going to shoot 33% from the field this season? That's bad
Three factors.
A) He's the #1 option until others prove to become additional and reliable primary scoring threats.
B) You can spread shots around and others benefit from Baker being the focal point of the offense. The views of Baker are based on him playing with Sanders...Which aided his shooting percentages. He can improve despite being the focal point of the offense but Baker is a team player, not a stat guy.
C) i anticipate Mathis and Kiss having better stat lines at times, because i think Bakers shot attempts may be under 7 or 5 on the shot clock...an ideal situation has Mathis and Kiss becoming just as reliable down the stretch of the shot clock, not the Corey Sanders show under 8 seconds on the shot clock.
If RU plays faster and has more ball movement then the ball will find the open player and that player will shoot..., then we can see those percentages increase for Baker.
Baker is not the key for RU...the key is how fast Kiss and Mathis can adjust and become consistent 12-14 PPG players, so you have 3 threats, vs 2 or 1 averaging 15 to 16PPG...
Having that happen is what's best for the program and it's development. Having Baker averaging more PPG means others aren't developing or doing enough....which to me is a bad sign.
The keys are Kiss, Mathis and McConnell being reliable and consistent. If that happens, we are set.
I expect a jump from Geo in year 2. At minimum, that means shooting over 40% from the field. Shooting with under 5-7 on the shot clock is what is supposed to bring it down to 40% when you're one of the best shooters on the team... not to 33%... im not saying on any given night 4 of 12 is horrible, but you balance that out with some good games, hopefully. People have some low expectations around here.
I agree we need Mathis and Kiss to be legit scoring options but 33% is just bad. Spin it how you want but that would be a major disappointment. Maybe you're scarred from Sanders Freeman and Williams into thinking 33% is better than it really is? He shot 38% as a true freshman. He has a better team and better passers around him. He's a year older stronger and more experienced. We want him up at 40% or higher.
Then make it 4-11.
I do think Baker will take a lot more under 5 second on the shot clock shots which by nature are lower percentage. Hawk estimated and I know he expects baker to shoot better than 33%. Think 38-42%.
It is all about Kiss Harper MCConnell and Issa getting good looks and making 40-45% open uncontested shots. Need to get the RAC jumping with 3 balls. OOC in transition 3 balls.
I do think Baker will take a lot more under 5 second on the shot clock shots which by nature are lower percentage. Hawk estimated and I know he expects baker to shoot better than 33%. Think 38-42%.
It is all about Kiss Harper MCConnell and Issa getting good looks and making 40-45% open uncontested shots. Need to get the RAC jumping with 3 balls. OOC in transition 3 balls.
38-42% I'll take, especially if he's drawing the D and hitting those other guys for open 3s. That probably means 4+ assists per game which is actually really good. We had an atrocious assists per game average last year
I didnt state he would be a 33% shooter for the season, but if you look at his stats against legitimate competition and subtract out the cupcakes, you would be surprised at what it looks like....it's probably very close to my projections.
If we get B1G MSG Geo in spurts, then we are all thrilled...i am just looking at the schedule and being cautious about what defenses throw at #1 scoring options that are the primary focus of an opponent.
A) An opponent can run multiple defenders at any one player to force that player to pass the ball...Geo is a willing passer and an unselfish player.
B) what are the expectations for Kiss and Mathis....?? You can't ask Geo to shoot 40% from the field or from 3 point range, if others are not shooting the ball or scoring.
C) There are more scorers on the floor now than years past. There were 2 to 3 scorers or shooters on the court where now we should have 4 shooting threats on the court at one time. If those other shooters aren't hitting, Geo will be asked to score in key spots when a team is focused on stopping him.
Geo is the least of my concerns. My goal is consistent for this season....player development for Kiss, Mathis and McConnell. I need 35 PPG from those 3 players in my opinion in order for RU to improve.
My ideal scoring disttibution has Baker, Mathis and Kiss combining each night with 40PPG...we can find 30 PPG from the rest of the roster.
If Bakers averaging 15 to 16 and Mathis and Kiss are combining for only another 14 to 16 between those 2, that's only 32PPG. The goal is 70PPG, up from 60PPG last year. That only happens if shots are spread out and others are scoring.
If we get B1G MSG Geo in spurts, then we are all thrilled...i am just looking at the schedule and being cautious about what defenses throw at #1 scoring options that are the primary focus of an opponent.
A) An opponent can run multiple defenders at any one player to force that player to pass the ball...Geo is a willing passer and an unselfish player.
B) what are the expectations for Kiss and Mathis....?? You can't ask Geo to shoot 40% from the field or from 3 point range, if others are not shooting the ball or scoring.
C) There are more scorers on the floor now than years past. There were 2 to 3 scorers or shooters on the court where now we should have 4 shooting threats on the court at one time. If those other shooters aren't hitting, Geo will be asked to score in key spots when a team is focused on stopping him.
Geo is the least of my concerns. My goal is consistent for this season....player development for Kiss, Mathis and McConnell. I need 35 PPG from those 3 players in my opinion in order for RU to improve.
My ideal scoring disttibution has Baker, Mathis and Kiss combining each night with 40PPG...we can find 30 PPG from the rest of the roster.
If Bakers averaging 15 to 16 and Mathis and Kiss are combining for only another 14 to 16 between those 2, that's only 32PPG. The goal is 70PPG, up from 60PPG last year. That only happens if shots are spread out and others are scoring.
Baker is the undeniable point guard, but I don’t see the ball in his hands more than 30% of the time in any possession. It would be very difficult to get high assist totals. Being wrong here would be awesome. OOC I’d expect 4+ APG as I’d hope to get 5-6 transition buckets per game.
I define OOC as the cream puff part of the schedule. 7 games I believe
I define OOC as the cream puff part of the schedule. 7 games I believe
A. Geo passing does not impact shooting percentage. Odd point to make here
B. I expect kiss and Mathis to shoot much better than Sanders Williams Freeman
C. You said yourself more shooters on the floor. This should lead to more open looks which are higher percent not the other way around.
D. It is not a zero sum game. If the offense is better with better ball movement passers and shooters on the court it should benefit the team as a whole.
You and Hawk know more than me, and I love the idea of a really balanced offense. But I keep going over and looking at the B1G stats from last year. I think Geo is going to lead this team, so in my mind he's gotta be (minimum!) top 15 in 1-2 categories in the league if we're going to get better. There's only 14 teams! So if our offense is going to be improved, and as balanced as you hope, Geo better be top-15 in assists, which means 4+ per game even in conference play. 2 in transition, 2 on drive and kick in the halfcourt and you're there.
If it's not gonna be balanced, Geo better be in the top 15 in scoring. Again, theres 14 teams. Purdue (obviously an extreme example) had 2 top 16 scorers last year, neither of whom were their dominant center.
If Geo is not gonna be distributing as well as I'm saying, and if he's not going to be scoring like I'm saying, and he's also shooting as inefficiently as you are saying, then he's going to be a poor excuse for the number 1 player on the team.
The irony is you two agreeing while Greene keeps saying we need to expect a ton of new faces for the team to improve, while Hawk seems to be cautious about that. But no one is buying into the surprise freshman recruit with a year in the league improving either. So you may not know it but you're both essentially predicting garbage offense and about 9 wins next year
Also, and again you know a ton more than I do about this, but at various points this off season haven't you said 1) we are in trouble if Eugene is playing more than 20 minutes a game, 2) we're in trouble if Thiam is playing more than 20 minutes a game and not losing minutes to newcomers, 3) we're in trouble if Geo is scoring 15 a game, 4) we're in trouble if our big men (I think including Eugene?) Are playing more than 60/mpg at the 4/5.
Do you not believe that players develop? Did you predict that Eugene would develop last year? (I think you didnt) did you not believe Pikiell about Eugene's development last year, get it wrong, and then still write off his comments about Eugene and Geo this offseason as coach speak?
Not trying to be a dick, just genuinely curious. Some people seem to think the only road to improvement is "new pieces" because they think they've fully evaluated the potential of what they've already seen.
Players develop all the time in this league, and have even done so on our team...
On this team no doubt Geo and Eugene play 25+ MPG.
I did not see Eugene reinventing himself as a 4 in the offseason
In a perfect world Eugene and Geo are coming off the bench as the 3rd guard and backup power forward getting 15-20 MPG. Fast forward 3-5 years maybe the program is there.
I did not see Eugene reinventing himself as a 4 in the offseason
In a perfect world Eugene and Geo are coming off the bench as the 3rd guard and backup power forward getting 15-20 MPG. Fast forward 3-5 years maybe the program is there.
Take a look at Michigan the last 3 years and how spread out the scoring is.
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/2018.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/michigan/2018.html
Right now...I can see four guys averaging double digits...Baker, onamuryi, kiss and mathis
If we can get I-2 more guys getting 6-8 ppg...then we will have very good floor balance and no need for a point guard to get 15 ppg
If we can get I-2 more guys getting 6-8 ppg...then we will have very good floor balance and no need for a point guard to get 15 ppg
That is a lot of shots at 33% lol I kid know you think he struggles in league play
Geo's ppg are going to be directly tied to how effective Kiss and Mathis can score. If they can't get it done he's going to be taking more shots. If they can we might see more balanced scoring. Another scenario is that if Kiss and Mathis are good that the entire offense is just much better than last season and everyone benefits. We have a lot of options. I hope Pike plays the hot hand and not set minutes for everyone. Always drives me crazy when a player is hot and doesn't get more minutes that game. The nature of shooting in basketball makes more sense for coaches to stick with hot hands in games if they have the luxury of options
While Kiss is a newcomer to RU, he's not new to college basketball and has a full season under his belt and a full year in our system to get acclimated.
I have seen plenty of number 4 or 5th options who shoot the ball at a higher percentage because they are the 4th or 5th options, while scouting reports focus on others.
I do not want to use a rival as an example but their best 'shooter' based on percentages the last 2 seasons was Myles Powell. But his shooting percentages were based on the 1st 2nd and 3rd options (Carrington, Rodriguez and Delgado) all having to be accounted for on the court most times.
Powell's shooting percentages should not be higher this year, even though he is a better player now vs his 1st 2 years because he is now going from the potential 4th option in their offense to 2nd. Teams are going to focus more energy on Powell to make him work for his points until others on their roster prove that they are capable.
The longer those options on SHU take to become reliable, will impact Powell's shooting percentages. He may turn out to be that much better than he was last year and able to continue to shoot at a high percentage from deep, but in most cases, your supporting cast impacts your shooting percentages more.
I am going to wait on the development of Mathis and McConnell first, before jumping to a conclusion that becoming the #1 option suddenly means the player goes up in every category across the board (PPG, FG%, 3 PT FG%, Asst to turnover).
I have very aggressive goals for the 4 guards in total, I'm just not tying everything to Geo, while not asking the others to do the same.
I have seen plenty of number 4 or 5th options who shoot the ball at a higher percentage because they are the 4th or 5th options, while scouting reports focus on others.
I do not want to use a rival as an example but their best 'shooter' based on percentages the last 2 seasons was Myles Powell. But his shooting percentages were based on the 1st 2nd and 3rd options (Carrington, Rodriguez and Delgado) all having to be accounted for on the court most times.
Powell's shooting percentages should not be higher this year, even though he is a better player now vs his 1st 2 years because he is now going from the potential 4th option in their offense to 2nd. Teams are going to focus more energy on Powell to make him work for his points until others on their roster prove that they are capable.
The longer those options on SHU take to become reliable, will impact Powell's shooting percentages. He may turn out to be that much better than he was last year and able to continue to shoot at a high percentage from deep, but in most cases, your supporting cast impacts your shooting percentages more.
I am going to wait on the development of Mathis and McConnell first, before jumping to a conclusion that becoming the #1 option suddenly means the player goes up in every category across the board (PPG, FG%, 3 PT FG%, Asst to turnover).
I have very aggressive goals for the 4 guards in total, I'm just not tying everything to Geo, while not asking the others to do the same.
A more succinct prediction. It is very likely that, once again, offense will be a problem this year.
@dkostus
I think Geo’s passing will improve the team but may not show up in assists. I think he will get us into sets early and keep the ball moving quickly as opposed to the pass and hold we did a lot last year. I think our team success may be more due to his hockey assists than regular assists.
I think Geo’s passing will improve the team but may not show up in assists. I think he will get us into sets early and keep the ball moving quickly as opposed to the pass and hold we did a lot last year. I think our team success may be more due to his hockey assists than regular assists.
I could see that. Just watched Seton Hall game again and that game, early in his freshman year, he actually is setting the offense at the end to allow Corey to play off the ball
I just want the season to start so we have real as opposed to hypothetical things to discuss about these guys. Between politics and football being so frigging awful, this is basically the thing I obsess about because it doesnt make me angry.
I need college basketball to start or GRRM to suddenly release Winds of Winter.
I need college basketball to start or GRRM to suddenly release Winds of Winter.
Season starts the Friday AFTER midterms. Guarantees only 72 hours of misery and sadness from me if we have status quo
Agree we need to spread around scoring and need more scorers to get us to the 70pt per game level. I think Kiss and Mathis are added offensive weapons. That being said I think folks are sleeping on Thiam having a 10+ pts per game average. Having four players average double digits will take the program to the next level.
GO RU
GO RU
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