How many games would this team win in an “average“ B1G season?
- Thread starter BillyC80
- Start date
Well we wouldn't have a better home record. Maybe 1 or 2 more wins yeah
Until we can prove that we can beat teams on the road, good or bad, it's just another question mark. It would be nice to have a 50% chance of winning those games down the road. Good teams find a way to get over the hump, but being able to shoot more consistently has to happen first. Although we don't have all the players in place, the guys we have are capable of playing better.
I’m in this camp. We’ve had a chance to win 5 of our 6 road losses in the B1G. Even the game at MSU was tight until the last 5 minutes. I’m thinking in an average year for everyone else, the way we’re playing this year would have been good enough for about 2 more wins than we have now.
I think you are referring to Illinois and psu makin it so good this year.
Illinois will continue to be a Top 7 Big 10 team with Underwood and the way he recruits. PSU will take a big dip because they are a veteran team and lose Lamar and Mike Watkins.
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That may be true, if you’re saying that in normal years there are at least 9 great B1G teams, and this year the other 3 — RU, IL and PSU — are all good at the same time. But how many times has the B1G had even 9 teams in the NCAA, and this year we may get 12? It’s an extraordinary year for the conference, no matter how you slice it.
KenPom numbers.
Code:
Conf
Year Teams Bids %Bids Rk .500 team's expected AdjOE
2002 11 5 45% 4 13.08
2003 11 5 45% 5 12.39
2004 11 3 27% 5 9.73
2005 11 5 45% 4 12.91
2006 11 6 55% 4 13.48
2007 11 6 55% 3 15.26
2008 11 4 36% 5 12.39
2009 11 7 64% 4 15.1
2010 11 5 45% 4 14.17
2011 11 7 64% 1 17.22
2012 12 6 50% 1 15.02
2013 12 7 58% 1 17.54
2014 12 6 50% 2 15.52
2015 14 7 50% 4 13.12
2016 14 7 50% 5 12.89
2017 14 7 50% 4 13.86
2018 14 4 29% 5 13.76
2019 14 8 57% 2 16.73
2020 1 17.53
Average 49% 3.4 14.3This is serious back-of-the-envelope stuff, because in an average Big 10 year, RU's Adjusted OE would be different (likely higher) and the relationship between Adjusted OE and outcomes is not 1:1 in small samples like a single season.
I think this might be right.
RU's current OE is 16.86, which is two points and 18% higher than the average OE over the past couple of decades. If this year's RU team were 18 percent higher, it'd be at 19.87, or a couple of points higher than Illinois, which is expected to go 12-8 in the league and is 8-5 now against a much more difficult Big 10 schedule (3 KenPom) than Rutgers (11) has faced to date.
So in a perfect world, RU would have a couple more wins in an average Big 10 season (mostly thanks to soft schedule), which gets it close to 20.
BUT .... outcomes in the small sample of a single season don't match expected outcomes from projections, as we can see with the several teams with higher Adjusted OE's like Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan which are, like Rutgers, fighting to get to .500 in the league.
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