How many games would this team win in an “average“ B1G season?

Discussion in 'Men's Basketball' started by BillyC80, Feb 14, 2020.

  1. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    The B1G this year is just ridiculous, with 12 teams in the top 10% of all D1 college basketball.

    You think we’d already have 20 wins if this was just an “average” year for the B1G conference?
     
  2. Night Man

    Night Man Heisman Winner
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    Well we wouldn't have a better home record. Maybe 1 or 2 more wins yeah
     
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  3. RUsince52

    RUsince52 All American
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    Until we can prove that we can beat teams on the road, good or bad, it's just another question mark. It would be nice to have a 50% chance of winning those games down the road. Good teams find a way to get over the hump, but being able to shoot more consistently has to happen first. Although we don't have all the players in place, the guys we have are capable of playing better.
     
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  4. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    I’m in this camp. We’ve had a chance to win 5 of our 6 road losses in the B1G. Even the game at MSU was tight until the last 5 minutes. I’m thinking in an average year for everyone else, the way we’re playing this year would have been good enough for about 2 more wins than we have now.
     
  5. RU-Choppin-Ohio

    RU-Choppin-Ohio Heisman Winner
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    I think you are referring to Illinois and psu makin it so good this year.

    Illinois will continue to be a Top 7 Big 10 team with Underwood and the way he recruits. PSU will take a big dip because they are a veteran team and lose Lamar and Mike Watkins.
     
    5 RU-Choppin-Ohio, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
  6. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    That may be true, if you’re saying that in normal years there are at least 9 great B1G teams, and this year the other 3 — RU, IL and PSU — are all good at the same time. But how many times has the B1G had even 9 teams in the NCAA, and this year we may get 12? It’s an extraordinary year for the conference, no matter how you slice it.
     
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  7. Scarlet Shack

    Scarlet Shack Hall of Famer
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    Take our final number and add two.
     
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  8. tjb

    tjb Redshirt
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    KenPom numbers.

    Code:
                             Conf
    Year   Teams Bids %Bids   Rk  .500 team's expected AdjOE
    2002    11    5    45%    4    13.08
    2003    11    5    45%    5    12.39
    2004    11    3    27%    5    9.73
    2005    11    5    45%    4    12.91
    2006    11    6    55%    4    13.48
    2007    11    6    55%    3    15.26
    2008    11    4    36%    5    12.39
    2009    11    7    64%    4    15.1
    2010    11    5    45%    4    14.17
    2011    11    7    64%    1    17.22
    2012    12    6    50%    1    15.02
    2013    12    7    58%    1    17.54
    2014    12    6    50%    2    15.52
    2015    14    7    50%    4    13.12
    2016    14    7    50%    5    12.89
    2017    14    7    50%    4    13.86
    2018    14    4    29%    5    13.76
    2019    14    8    57%    2    16.73
    2020                      1    17.53
    Average            49%    3.4    14.3




    This is serious back-of-the-envelope stuff, because in an average Big 10 year, RU's Adjusted OE would be different (likely higher) and the relationship between Adjusted OE and outcomes is not 1:1 in small samples like a single season.

    I think this might be right.

    RU's current OE is 16.86, which is two points and 18% higher than the average OE over the past couple of decades. If this year's RU team were 18 percent higher, it'd be at 19.87, or a couple of points higher than Illinois, which is expected to go 12-8 in the league and is 8-5 now against a much more difficult Big 10 schedule (3 KenPom) than Rutgers (11) has faced to date.

    So in a perfect world, RU would have a couple more wins in an average Big 10 season (mostly thanks to soft schedule), which gets it close to 20.

    BUT .... outcomes in the small sample of a single season don't match expected outcomes from projections, as we can see with the several teams with higher Adjusted OE's like Purdue, Ohio State and Michigan which are, like Rutgers, fighting to get to .500 in the league.
     
    8 tjb, Feb 15, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 15, 2020
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  9. 216 Row E

    216 Row E Sophomore
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    Probably a couple more, you would think we would have pulled out a couple/few more road wins if they were lesser teams. Maybe right at 20 wins right now.
     
  10. BillyC80

    BillyC80 All American
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    Great chart and analysis, thanks! So if I’m reading correctly, most we had was 64% of B1G teams in the dance, which is extraordinary in and of itself, but this year we may get 86%. Wow!
     

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