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How much better will our roster be next year?

RUonBrain

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Apr 29, 2002
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This might be over simplistic, but how will we do rosterwise next year when you match up a player leaving with a playing being available?

Lose Freeman, gain Shaq Carter.
Marginal or significant improvement?
Or will it take time to build the necessary chemistry?

Lose Mike Williams, gain Montez Mathis.
Push?
Maybe long term gain, but as a freshman?

Lose Sa, Johnson plays as redshirt freshman.
Gain due to Johnson’s supposed ability to score a bit? (Someone said Pike said he could score inside)

Gain Kiss
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure at what %)

Gain Harper
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure what %, and will need strength and conditioning as only a frosh)

Obviously each player coming and going has their own strengths and weaknesses.
But just trying to match up one coming with one going to see overall how much better the roster might be.

Overall, how much better does this make us?

And if you were to match up 1 in with 1 out, would you match them up any differently than I did, or have a different net assessment of the matchup comparison?
 
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I am expecting similar type range....14 wins to 17 wins depending on how tough the schedule is. For one thing this program cannot play 22 games at home...have to play a good chunk of road games
 
Guarantees for next year:

- Solid recruiting class with Mathis; Shaq Carter and Harper.
- Mathis is a scorer and Carter a big inside prescence and Harper is solid - though they're freshman or newcomers.
- We add Peter Kiss (who Pike is very high on) and Myles Johnson - whom Pike said has lost 22 lbs and can score in the paint for us right now.
- Improved play from Eugene; Thiam; Baker and Doucore.
- Hopefully Sanders stays.
- We lose Freeman; Williams and Sa - of which we will feel the loss of Freeman and Williams - and unfortunately we will feel the pain of Williams now.

- Plus I'm sure there'll be other open spots if Bullock transfers and the inevitable 1-2 player changes that no one foresees.
 
Really impossible to say at this point. And, that said, we may not be better next year at all, we could be worse. Whether Corey stays or goes is the big wildcard of course but it seems like every year there's someone that would've been expected to contribute to some degree that transfers out. I'm always hopeful that we'll be able to pull a Jerome Coleman out of a hat to replace a Todd Billet but things don't usually work out that way.
 
I edited the title to get more of a focus on the roster vs just the overall result.

Thought that would be an interesting discussion (maybe a slight twist to just asking if the team will be better).
 
This might be over simplistic, but how will we do rosterwise next year when you match up a player leaving with a playing being available?

Lose Freeman, gain Shaq Carter.
Marginal or significant improvement?
Or will it take time to build the necessary chemistry?

Lose Mike Williams, gain Montez Mathis.
Push?
Maybe long term gain, but as a freshman?

Lose Sa, Johnson plays as redshirt freshman.
Gain due to Johnson’s supposed ability to score a bit? (Someone said Pike said he could score inside)

Gain Kiss
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure at what %)

Gain Harper
Obviously helpful as he can shoot 3’s (not sure what %, and will need strength and conditioning as only a frosh)

Obviously each player coming and going has their own strengths and weaknesses.
But just trying to match up one coming with one going to see overall how much better the roster might be.

Overall, how much better does this make us?

And if you were to match up 1 in with 1 out, would you match them up any differently than I did, or have a different net assessment of the matchup comparison?

Next year will probably be a slight digression and worse record because of the reliance on new players, but the year after that, Rutgers should be at least as good as this season, maybe even better.
 
By July you will have an idea what the final roster looks like and by December you may get an idea of the caliber of players brought in.

The only guarantee is there will be no Sa, Williams and Freeman.

If Sanders does not return (if I am betting man, right now 40/60) we have a major hole at the point guard position that would have to be addressed.
 
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Mathis replacing Williams is not a push. I love Mike Williams and he provides a lot, but Montez Mathis is a stud.
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first off,I don't think Williams played as well as he can for most of the season so far.....

but what we are measuring here, right now, is Williams as a senior against Mathis as a freshman.....it has been noted in another thread that Mathis seemed a bit over matched in his most recent game, against a lot of div 1 type high school seniors..... I can think we can expect a bit of that when he plays his freshman year here.
 
We can't be assuming Mathis is going to produce significantly from Day or even Year 1. If Corey stays that will help develop Mathis a lot (and I think further helps Geo too). He will have a chance without the pressure and load of needing to carry the team scoring wise (and i'm not even sure if he's capable of doing that).

If Mathis strength was hitting jumpers, then I think we could have higher Year 1 expectations. But he's more of a physical player - which obviously is a major adjustment into D1 and then B1G competition.
 
Next year's progress is just as much dependent on the further progress of Geo, Eugene, Thiam, Doucore as the addition of the new players. So it's not really a straight 1:1 replacement of the seniors with freshmen. Those senior roles will be also be filled by players already on the roster.
 
I think we'll be better next year from a roster perspective. Biggest thing is greater depth, and more talented depth - the 7-10th guys in the rotation will be better, and we should see improvement out of Baker/Thiam/Omoruyi/Doucoure as they continue their development. Biggest question mark is whether Sanders stays (my gut thinks he does, but I'm 60/40 on it), but also if we can get minutes from Bullock's spot on the roster.

With Sanders, I think we're noticeably better. Without Sanders, we'll have some growing pains and struggle sometimes in late game situations.

Breaking down my own thoughts by position, given the 12 scholarships we know will see the court (and accounting for with/without Sanders)

PG/SG
Current: Baker 31.9 min, Sanders 31.7, Williams 22.1 (about 9 played as second guard), Mensah 7.3
We've been relying heavily on Sanders/Baker at PG/SG, with Williams spelling them and also taking time at the 3 spot. On average, Baker/Sanders are seeing about 80% of the total minutes at those spots, which is a lot. We're also crazy thin at guard, so foul trouble and injuries take a big toll.
Future: Baker, Sanders(?), Mathis, Kiss, Mensah
Big question mark is whether Sanders comes back, and if he doesn't, who replaces him on the roster. With Sanders, this is a much stronger guard group - Baker and Sanders will both be a year older/better, and will be able to take more rest during the game to be ready for the final minutes. Better three point shooting (hopefully) from Kiss, and less need to see minutes from Mensah due to greater depth. Without Sanders, we're going to have no upperclassmen at the guard spot, and will need a lot more out of Mathis than you'd like to ask from a freshman - would really need to see who we bring in.

3rd guard/Wing/SF
Current: Thiam 27.9, Williams 22.1 (about 13 played as third guard), Omoruyi 21.0 (about 8 played as small forward)
Thiam's the starter and takes the majority of minutes here, as he doesn't really play SG or PF at all, and is almost strictly used as the third guard/wing. He's better than last year, but still needs to show more offensive production at this spot. The foul trouble/injury risk of our guard depth cascades here, as Williams' injury means more minutes for Thiam.
Future: Thiam, Kiss, Mathis(?), Harper, Omoruyi
A lot more depth here. I'm assuming Thiam continues to improve and stays the starter (though some may disagree), but there's going to be more minutes for Kiss/Mathis as a third guard and from Harper. Really need more production out of this spot on the floor, and we're likely to get it. If Sanders doesn't stay, though, we probably won't see as much of Mathis as the third guard, as he'd be needed at one of the primary two guard spots. But we'd still have Kiss/Harper... and Omoruyi would also probably still get some minutes here.

PF
Current: Freeman 26.0, Omoruyi 21 (about 13 played as PF)
Freeman has a high motor and toughness - leading the team in rebounds, and accounts for a lot of our points - but is undersized, sometimes struggles defensively, and tries to play outside his ability at times on offense. Omoruyi is a lot better from last year, but is also somewhat undersized as a PF.
Future: Carter, Omoruyi
Remains to be seen what Carter brings - though he is definitely 2-3 inches taller and 20 pounds heavier than Freeman, so he won't be undersized at this spot. Omoruyi should be better, but we still only really have two guys at this spot for depth, unless we play some sets with both Doorson/Doucoure in the game.

C
Current: Doucoure 14.4, Doorson 11.3, Sa 11.1
Doucoure has really struggled staying on the floor with foul trouble, and Doorson/Sa have frequently been used more based on matchup than on consistent ability to hold down the 5 spot. Across the three, we're getting 7.4 pts and 10.2 rbs
Future: Doucoure, Doorson, Johnson
Hopefully Doucoure will improve and be better at defending without fouling, which should keep him on the floor more. A fully healthy season and offseason should also help Doorson improve his lower body strength and foot speed, which could help him as a 5th year senior make an argument for more minutes. Also don't know what we'll get from Johnson, so we'll see if we have anyone who can consistently cover more mobile centers.
 
but is true Frosh Mathis better than 4th year Williams (uninjured)?

The thing is, I don't think we'll see any fully healthy minutes out of Williams this year. I think the injury he took in the SJU exhibition has nagged him, and now he's got an ankle injury that means he will miss time and not be 100% when he comes back.

He's been a warrior and has fought through it, but he's had bad luck with the injury bug this year. I don't think Mathis would be better than a fully healthy 4th year Williams, but if he stays healthy he may give us more production throughout the full year than Williams will end up with.
 
I'd have to say there is no way Eugene plays at the 3 next year. You'd need both Carter being an absolute stud AND a center emerging as a guy who gets 27+ minutes.

i can't see a path for 80 minutes to fill up with those 5 that would make Eugene be free to play on the perimeter. I see more likely that Eugene and Carter on the floor than 3 bigs on the floor.
 
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I'd have to say there is no way Eugene plays at the 3 next year. You'd need both Carter being an absolute stud AND a center emerging as a guy who gets 27+ minutes.

i can't see a path for 80 minutes to fill up with those 5 that would make Eugene be free to play on the perimeter. I see more likely that Eugene and Carter on the floor than 3 bigs on the floor.

The only way I see Omoruyi getting minutes at the 3 is if we "go big" with Docuoure, Carter, and Omoruyi in the game at the same time... which will likely be rare, as our roster is built more to go small than go big.
 
Trying to predict what fictional characters will do and Sanders coming back.

1 Sanders 32 Baker 8
2 Baker 24 Mathis 16
3 Kiss 24 Mathis 8 Harper 6 Thaim 2
4 Carter 14 Eugene 20 Thaim 6
5 Duke 16 carter 10 Doorson 8 Johnson 6
 
No Sanders No 5th year PG
1 Baker 34 Souf 6
2 Mathis 28 Kiss 12
3 Thaim 16 Kiss 14 Harper 10
4 Carter 14 Eugene 20 Thaim 6
5 Duke 16 carter 10 Doorson 8 Johnson 6
 
Trying to predict what fictional characters will do and Sanders coming back.

1 Sanders 32 Baker 8
2 Baker 24 Mathis 16
3 Kiss 24 Mathis 8 Harper 6 Thaim 2
4 Carter 14 Eugene 20 Thaim 6
5 Duke 16 carter 10 Doorson 8 Johnson 6

Thiam will drop to 8 minutes, and 6 of those at PF? And a Fr Harper will see more minutes at the 3 than a Jr Thiam? Really doubt that's going to be the case.
 
I have Issa as a starter at the 3 with no Corey

Yeah.. but with Corey, you think he'll drop from a starter to 4th on the depth chart on the wing? I mean, I can understand feeling that Kiss will come in and fight to get the starting job at the 3 as a RS So... but a two year starter and rising junior dropping from 27.9 to 2 minutes behind not just Kiss, but two true freshmen?

Wow.
 
Trying to predict what fictional characters will do and Sanders coming back.

1 Sanders 32 Baker 8
2 Baker 24 Mathis 16
3 Kiss 24 Mathis 8 Harper 6 Thaim 2
4 Carter 14 Eugene 20 Thaim 6
5 Duke 16 carter 10 Doorson 8 Johnson 6

No way Thiam drops to 8 minutes. And no way he fall behind Mathis at the 3. Thiam’s length will always be required to defend B1G wings.
Wing Louis King scored at will against a Mathis team yesterday (32 points) & King is only 6’6, smaller than several B1G wings.

Thiam will continue to improve offensively but his length on the defensive end is what will garner significant minutes.
 
No way Thiam drops to 8 minutes. And no way he fall behind Mathis at the 3. Thiam’s length will always be required to defend B1G wings.
Wing Louis King scored at will against a Mathis team yesterday (32 points) & King is only 6’6, smaller than several B1G wings.

Thiam will continue to improve offensively but his length on the defensive end is what will garner significant minutes.
Mathis did not guard king at all yesterday. But i see your point that Thiam is just a much better fit to guard B1G wings
 
Next year's progress is just as much dependent on the further progress of Geo, Eugene, Thiam, Doucore as the addition of the new players. So it's not really a straight 1:1 replacement of the seniors with freshmen. Those senior roles will be also be filled by players already on the roster.


I was waiting to see this answer. Each of these players should benefit immensely from a full year of development under this staff. Each of these players will play a MAJOR role in next year’s team. To that, add the 5 new guys. Then we hopefully keep Corey. And then maybe we get another 2018 recruit.

Assuming we keep the same defensive intensity and all-around hustle, next year’s team will play noticeably better than this year’s team.
 
I think the big question for next year will be Kiss.
He only shot 26% from 3 in the lesser MAAC conference. And although he shot 4-4 from 3 against SHU he was 0-6 from 3 against Brown.

Being competitive and looking good in practices are one thing but how will he perform against the size of B1G wings?
 
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I think the big question for next year will be Kiss.
He only shot 26% from 3 in the lesser MAAC conference. And although he shot 4-4 from 3 against SHU he was 0-6 from 3 against Brown.

Being competitive and looking good in practices are one thing but how will he perform against the size of B1G wings?

I am going under the assumption that Kiss has to be pretty good if Pikiell was willing to risk putting a goose egg in his spot this year.
 
No way Thiam drops to 8 minutes. And no way he fall behind Mathis at the 3. Thiam’s length will always be required to defend B1G wings.
Wing Louis King scored at will against a Mathis team yesterday (32 points) & King is only 6’6, smaller than several B1G wings.

Thiam will continue to improve offensively but his length on the defensive end is what will garner significant minutes.

If Mathis isn't better than Issa on Day 1 you can stick a big fork in Pikiell. His chances of succeeding at RU will be a number very close to 0. Pikiell has to have success in 2018 and 2019 class.

If you were to duplicate the 1st 2 Pikiell classes think about what is on the court.

There is no way one can expect success the 1st 2 classes given he was hired less than 18 months ago. Mathis, Carter, Harper and Kiss are SO important.
 
My unfortunate answer to the OP question is "not a lot" unless we bring in a MAJOR grad transfer.
 
If Thiam is coming off the bench and Mensah is not seeing the court in meaningful games next year, we'll be in a pretty good place.
 
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If Mathis isn't better than Issa on Day 1 you can stick a big fork in Pikiell. His chances of succeeding at RU will be a number very close to 0. Pikiell has to have success in 2018 and 2019 class.

I'm assuming that 2 min from Sanders/Baker will be up for grabs to keep them fresher (giving them each just about 30/game), probably 7-8 of Thiam's minutes (bringing him to ~20/game), along with all of Williams and Mensah's minutes. That'd be 41-42 min to be split across Kiss/Mathis.
 
This team will push for an NCAA bid next year. You have to remember Pike is bringing in higher IQ players. As much as you want to applaud our seniors, Mike Williams is an undersized 2G and Deshawn Freeman is an undersized 4 who are inconsistent shooters, great hustle guys not the greatest decision makers and Sa is Sa. This year you see the freshman and sophomore make better decisions than the upperclassman, and it will continue next year. Mathis will score about the same as Baker is doing this year regardless if Sanders is on the team or not. Mathis had 22 in yesterday's game and leads his team in scoring over I. Quickley, Kentucky commit. Guards always have the easier transition to college. Shaq Carter will share the PF with Omoruyi, very productive player in limited time in JUCO. Ron Harper Jr. has pedigree and will get time. I am worried about the 1 if Sanders doesn't return unless Peter Kiss can play some 1 behind Baker. The 5 will be fine with Doucoure and M. Johnson. There is also 5th yr senior Doorson and Matt Bullock as decisions in the off season for 2018, if we have a need.
 
Mathis did not guard king at all yesterday. But i see your point that Thiam is just a much better fit to guard B1G wings
If Mathis isn't better than Issa on Day 1 you can stick a big fork in Pikiell. His chances of succeeding at RU will be a number very close to 0. Pikiell has to have success in 2018 and 2019 class.

If you were to duplicate the 1st 2 Pikiell classes think about what is on the court.

There is no way one can expect success the 1st 2 classes given he was hired less than 18 months ago. Mathis, Carter, Harper and Kiss are SO important.

Uhm we can make a good educated guess from watching Mathis that he won’t be better than Thiam on day 1: a true frost versus a junior. We saw that yesterday.

But I think it’s wrong to compare Mathis to Thiam. Apples and oranges. Thiam’s a big risk/reward player because of his height and length.

Kiss will be a bigger litmus test for Pike.
 
Uhm we can make a good educated guess from watching Mathis that he won’t be better than Thiam on day 1: a true frost versus a junior. We saw that yesterday.

But I think it’s wrong to compare Mathis to Thiam. Apples and oranges. Thiam’s a big risk/reward player because of his height and length.

Kiss will be a bigger litmus test for Pike.

It's less about comparing them straight up, but who gets the minutes. Which lineup will be most effective:

Sanders/Baker/Mathis
Sanders/Baker/Kiss
Sanders/Baker/Thiam
Sanders/Baker/Harper
 
It's less about comparing them straight up, but who gets the minutes. Which lineup will be most effective:

Sanders/Baker/Mathis
Sanders/Baker/Kiss
Sanders/Baker/Thiam
Sanders/Baker/Harper

Yes assuming Sanders returns. But you can scratch #1 & #4 especially in B1G play. Not only King but Ohio State bound Muhammad did what he wanted to whenever he wanted yesterday especially in the 1st half so I don’t see Mathis guarding B1G wings from the start. Ditto for Harper Jr.

So it will come down to Kiss or Thiam. And if both of these show significant growth and improvement then it’s a good problem to have.
 
Yes assuming Sanders returns. But you can scratch #1 & #4 especially in B1G play. Not only King but Ohio State bound Muhammad did what he wanted to whenever he wanted yesterday especially in the 1st half so I don’t see Mathis guarding B1G wings from the start. Ditto for Harper Jr.

So it will come down to Kiss or Thiam. And if both of these show significant growth and improvement then it’s a good problem to have.

You are significantly overating Issa's defensive abilities.
 
You are significantly overating Issa's defensive abilities.

The scouting and the numbers both say that our defense is good. So who would you say, individually, is responsible for that?

Freeman been poor on defense. Geo is average. Doucoure can't defend without fouling. Sa and Doorson can take up space.

It can't all be scheme. There have to be SOME good defenders. Corey has been mostly good. Omoruyi defends very well. And IMO Thiam does too.
 
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