Is it possible for a recruit to develop into a good three point shooter after coming to Rutgers?

[scarletmark]

It seems like a very difficult task for RU to recruit good three point shooters. Is 3 point shooting a question of natural ability or can it be developed with hours of extra practice?
It seems that most of the teams competing against RU practically disregard the 3 point shooting threat and collapse into the paint and make it very difficult to get anything going inside.

 

[Rufaninga]

not after coming to RU.

However, Leaving RU to go play somewhere else is definitely doable.

 

[ColonelRutgers]

It seems like a very difficult task for RU to recruit good three point shooters. Is 3 point shooting a question of natural ability or can it be developed with hours of extra practice?
It seems that most of the teams competing against RU practically disregard the 3 point shooting threat and collapse into the paint and make it very difficult to get anything going inside.

Natural ability. Of course one can improve marginally with practice but not going to make a significant difference.

 

[G- RUnit]

Shooting is a natural ability, great release and great eye.

I don’t think you really develop into a great shooter.

 

[jerzeyguy]

When I was younger I was a very good ball handler. I could knife through a full court press by myself. One summer I started shooting for a hours a day and became a lights out shooter. But I lost my handle. Could barely dribble after that. Special ball players can eventually do it all. But most will be good at the skill set they focus on the most

 

[RUChoppin]

Natural ability. Of course one can improve marginally with practice but not going to make a significant difference.

Went back and looked at stats across our different three point shooters going all the way back to the 1990s.... about 60% of them finished their career shooting roughly the same as they shot as freshmen (or even a bit worse). The other ~40% improved noticeably.

So yes, it's possible to improve - and improve more than marginally. But the majority of the time, what you see as a freshman is largely what you get from a 3P% perspective.

 

[RUChoppin]

Looking at past Rutgers guards, some have remained the same or regressed after their freshman year (Williams, Sanders, Mack, Coburn, Farmer, Webb, Douby, Lamizana, T. Billet). Others have improved, either at RU or at another school (Rosario, Shields, Greer, D. Jones, Flores, G. Billet, Hodgson).

Currently, Thiam has improved from .303 as a freshman to .379 this year, but he's also taking fewer shots per minute played.

 

[RURM85]

Of course. Practice makes perfect. Also, depends on abilities of players around the 3 point shooter. Can they get him the ball for open looks or with space.

 

[blockm2]

I think some players can develop a shot over time, especially if you have a coach that can really teach them how to improve their form, but most players are what they are in terms of outside shooting ability.

For the most part you have to recruit shooters.

 

[RUChoppin]

Rob Hodgson and Mike Rosario showed a lot of improvement at 3P% in their careers, but those stories are rare. Hodgson needed to look for his shot *more*, while Rosario had to ease up on taking bad shots.

Sometimes improvement comes in just better awareness of what shots to take/pass up, and better cuts/screens/plays to get open as they get more comfortable in the system.

Hodgson's career from range:
Fr: 11/39 (.282)
So: 23/64 (.359)
Jr: 37/101 (.366)
Sr: 52.128 (.406)

Rosario's career from range:
Fr: 76/252 (.302)
So: 78/239 (.326)
Jr: 33/98 (.337)
Sr: 61/166 (.367)

 

[Mr_Twister]

Is it possible they became smarter players and took “better” shots as they became more experienced?

 

[G- RUnit]

Still got to make the shots though. Smarter shots, experience, and of course practice helps but it doesn’t make you Quincy Douby.

 

[RUChoppin]

Still got to make the shots though. Smarter shots, experience, and of course practice helps but it doesn’t make you Quincy Douby.

Speaking of Douby, his 3P% regressed from his freshman year as he took more shots and got a lot more defensive attention.

Fr: 69/162 (.426)
So: 66/195 (.338)
Jr: 116/289 (.401)

 

[RUforJERSEY]

There are guys in the NBA who develop range out to the 3pt line as their career progresses.. The Atlanta Hawks have a close to 7 footer named Dwayne Dedmon who previously played for San Antonio. Prior to this season he hardly was a threat at all on offense not to mention from the outside. This season I see video of him draining NBA threes. I think a lot (not all) is how much work you put in on it.

 

[Loyal-Son]

IMO It absolutely is possible for anyone to improve his 3-pt shooting in college.

It is not just a matter of practicing however. The first inclination for someone interested in improving his 3-point shooting is to keep shooting from just behind the line for hours on end, and that will not work IMO. You need to develop muscle-memory from every distance, so you need to start from zero feet and work your way out.

The second thing to remember is that focusing on the rim is not going to do it. The key is the arc of your shot.

Anyone who pays attention will notice that the great shooters have a high, high arc on their shot. The focus needs to be there. Surprisingly a shooter who is having an off-night can counteract that simply by increasing the arc of his shot. Of course defensive pressure is a big factor, but higher arcs on the shot are also harder to defend and block.

I imagine posters will laugh at this advice, but from my experience these are the keys. IMHO practicing for hours on end is never going to be a hindrance, but it helps to be smart about it.

 

[FELONIOUSMONK]

No but the opposite is true.

 

[PiscatawayMike]

If I am not mistaken, Myles Mack's .462 as a sophomore is the best single-season 3-point percentage in Rutgers history. He was lights out that season. Almost every time he shot the ball, it looked like it was going in. He was nowhere near that percentage his other years on the banks.

 

[RutHut]

Speaking of Douby, his 3P% regressed from his freshman year as he took more shots and got a lot more defensive attention.

Fr: 69/162 (.426)
So: 66/195 (.338)
Jr: 116/289 (.401)

Wow, 116 threes. Many from NBA range.

 

[Rokodesh]

There are guys in the NBA who develop range out to the 3pt line as their career progresses.. The Atlanta Hawks have a close to 7 footer named Dwayne Dedmon who previously played for San Antonio. Prior to this season he hardly was a threat at all on offense not to mention from the outside. This season I see video of him draining NBA threes. I think a lot (not all) is how much work you put in on it.

Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot when he got to the league, he developed it over time. Definitely doable.

https://fansided.com/2017/05/10/kawhi-leonard-3-point-jump-shot-nba-draft/

 

[LotusAggressor]

Many players have become good shooters. It can and has been done. It hasn't happened at RU in the last 30 plus years because player development has been generally non-existent.

 

[LotusAggressor]

There are guys in the NBA who develop range out to the 3pt line as their career progresses.. The Atlanta Hawks have a close to 7 footer named Dwayne Dedmon who previously played for San Antonio. Prior to this season he hardly was a threat at all on offense not to mention from the outside. This season I see video of him draining NBA threes. I think a lot (not all) is how much work you put in on it.

The Spurs have a shooting coach. The Hawk's coach is a Popovich disciple, so they probably have one too.

 

[LotusAggressor]

Speaking of Douby, his 3P% regressed from his freshman year as he took more shots and got a lot more defensive attention.

Fr: 69/162 (.426)
So: 66/195 (.338)
Jr: 116/289 (.401)

He got even more defensive attention as a Junior.

 

[zebnatto]

You can come in a shooter and improve your in-game shooting—as we hope Issa will.

 

[LotusAggressor]

Shooting is a natural ability, great release and great eye.

I don’t think you really develop into a great shooter.

Most, if not all, great shooters took literally thousands of shots. Great releases are developed through practice, fault correction and patience.

 

[LotusAggressor]

Rob Hodgson and Mike Rosario showed a lot of improvement at 3P% in their careers, but those stories are rare. Hodgson needed to look for his shot *more*, while Rosario had to ease up on taking bad shots.

Sometimes improvement comes in just better awareness of what shots to take/pass up, and better cuts/screens/plays to get open as they get more comfortable in the system.

Hodgson's career from range:
Fr: 11/39 (.282)
So: 23/64 (.359)
Jr: 37/101 (.366)
Sr: 52.128 (.406)

Rosario's career from range:
Fr: 76/252 (.302)
So: 78/239 (.326)
Jr: 33/98 (.337)
Sr: 61/166 (.367)

Rosario spent his last 2 years at Florida, with a real coach.

 

[blockm2]

Kawhi Leonard couldn't shoot when he got to the league, he developed it over time. Definitely doable.

https://fansided.com/2017/05/10/kawhi-leonard-3-point-jump-shot-nba-draft/

Kawhi shot 37.6% on 3s his rookie season and above 37% each of his first 3 seasons. He is now a career 38.6% shooter on 3s. Now he did improve from college to the pros, but once he got to the NBA he’s been pretty consistent for the most part.

 

[LotusAggressor]

Kawhi shot 37.6% on 3s his rookie season and above 37% each of his first 3 seasons. He is now a career 38.6% shooter on 3s. Now he did improve from college to the pros, but once he got to the NBA he’s been pretty consistent for the most part.

He wasn't even a 30% 3 point shooter in college. He improved a lot in the NBA, in no small part due to practice and working with the Spurs' shooting coach.

 

[PatrickRU92]

no

you either have it, or you don't

 

[Knight Owl]

Robin James

 

[blockm2]

He wasn't even a 30% 3 point shooter in college. He improved a lot in the NBA, in no small part due to practice and working with the Spurs' shooting coach.

Actually he improved over a few weeks in the summer before his rookie season by tweaking his release. Since then hasn’t really improved at all.

 

[rubaseball78]

I've always been under the opinion that while someone can improve their shooting, basically great shooters are born.

 

[G- RUnit]

Exactly... like Ted Williams... except in baseball. ;-)

 

[RUChoppin]

Wow, 116 threes. Many from NBA range.

The next closest Rutgers single-season mark from 3 is Jerome Coleman with 99 in 2001-02.

And yes, a ton of the threes Douby hit that year were from NBA range (and beyond).... but they also were frequently against double and triple teams, where everyone on the court knew he was looking to get the ball and put up a three. Had there been another scoring threat on the team to relieve the defensive pressure, he might have shot .450 that year and been in the top 15-20 in single season assists, too.

 

[kcg88]

So, I did some research. Since 2002, here is how each class of Rutgers has shot from 3, collectively. So the "freshman" stat counts everybody's freshman year.

Freshmen: 32.39% (2291 attempts)
Sophomores: 32.74% (2153 attempts)
Juniors: 33.84% (2568 attempts)
Seniors: 32.42% (1903 atempts)

Now compare us to Villanova (I picked them sort of at random, but also because they've had one coach this whole time and fewer guys leaving early than Duke, Kentucky, etc, and because in my mind I have this idea of their guys improving throughout their careers).

Freshmen: 34.13% (2098 attempts)
Sophomores: 35.10% (3311 attempts)
Juniors: 36.91% (3541 attempts)
Seniors: 37.22% (2990 attempts)

Now, there are a couple of caveats because Jay Wright is recruiting a higher-caliber player, and he focuses specifically on guards, but... the difference in improvement is striking.

Let's look at two Villanova era, the Foye-Ray-Sumpter era and the Arcidiacono-Hart-Jenkins era.

3P% by year, freshman to senior, attempts in parentheses:
Randy Foye: 30.2% (96) ... 29.9% (144) ... 34.0% (153) ... 35.0% (254)
Allan Ray: 29.9% (127) ... 39.2% (222) ... 37.6% (213) ... 37.2 (288)
Curtis Sumpter: 23.7% (38) ... 31.8% (66) ... 43.3% (90) ... 36.6% (142)

Ryan Arcidiacono: 32.7% (217) ... 34.5% (171) ... 37.2% (148) ... 39.4% (193)
Josh Hart: 31.3% (83) ... 46.4% (112) ... 35.7% (154) ... 40.4% (183)
Kris Jenkins: 37.0% (81) ... 37.2% (129) ... 38.6% (259) ... 36.0% (239)

So except for Jenkins, who basically shot the same throughout, everybody else gained at least 5 percentage points on their three-pointers, with a few seasons of a 10+ percentage point improvement.

Now let's look at the Carter-Mack-Seagers era:
Eli Carter: 35.3% (156) ... (32.0% (122) ... (transferred, injured) ... 30.5% (141) ... 27.9% (229)
Myles Mack: 33.8% (142) ... 46.2% (132) ... 35.9% (181) ... 32.4% (185)
Jerome Seagers: 33.3% (87) ... 38.1% (84) ... 41.6% (89) ... (transferred) ... 34.7% (124)

A bit more bouncy, to say the least.

What about current guys?

Corey Sanders: 31.5% (130) ... 26.9% (78) ... 21.2% (80)
Mike Williams: 24.0% (100) ... 32.0% (150) ... 29.9% (127) ... 24.1% (54)
Issa Thiam: 30.1% (93) ... 39.8% (98) ...

So Corey's regressed from an already-poor 31% and while Mike improved 25% to his sophomore year, he started too low for it to be a "good" number.

But imagine if Sanders' numbers had been like Williams'. 31.5% his freshman year, and then a 25% improvement would've put him at 39.4%! And then even if he fell off seven percent (as Williams did from SO to JR), he'd be at 36.6%.

What's my point? I don't really know. I lost track a while ago. But improvement from 3-point shooters is absolutely possible. Among the many other shortcomings of the program over the last 15+ years, this complete lack of development is is yet another reason we've remained in the basement.

 

[RURM85]

Take a look at the 3 point shooting percentages of the Purdue shooters - Mathias, Thompson and C. Edwards, Mathias/Thompson from freshman to senior years and Edwards from freshman to sophomore year. Huge improvements and significant increase to number of attempts.

 

[RUChoppin]

So, I did some research. Since 2002, here is how each class of Rutgers has shot from 3, collectively. So the "freshman" stat counts everybody's freshman year.

Freshmen: 32.39% (2291 attempts)
Sophomores: 32.74% (2153 attempts)
Juniors: 33.84% (2568 attempts)
Seniors: 32.42% (1903 atempts)

Now compare us to Villanova (I picked them sort of at random, but also because they've had one coach this whole time and fewer guys leaving early than Duke, Kentucky, etc, and because in my mind I have this idea of their guys improving throughout their careers).

Freshmen: 34.13% (2098 attempts)
Sophomores: 35.10% (3311 attempts)
Juniors: 36.91% (3541 attempts)
Seniors: 37.22% (2990 attempts)

Now, there are a couple of caveats because Jay Wright is recruiting a higher-caliber player, and he focuses specifically on guards, but... the difference in improvement is striking.

Let's look at two Villanova era, the Foye-Ray-Sumpter era and the Arcidiacono-Hart-Jenkins era.

3P% by year, freshman to senior, attempts in parentheses:
Randy Foye: 30.2% (96) ... 29.9% (144) ... 34.0% (153) ... 35.0% (254)
Allan Ray: 29.9% (127) ... 39.2% (222) ... 37.6% (213) ... 37.2 (288)
Curtis Sumpter: 23.7% (38) ... 31.8% (66) ... 43.3% (90) ... 36.6% (142)

Ryan Arcidiacono: 32.7% (217) ... 34.5% (171) ... 37.2% (148) ... 39.4% (193)
Josh Hart: 31.3% (83) ... 46.4% (112) ... 35.7% (154) ... 40.4% (183)
Kris Jenkins: 37.0% (81) ... 37.2% (129) ... 38.6% (259) ... 36.0% (239)

So except for Jenkins, who basically shot the same throughout, everybody else gained at least 5 percentage points on their three-pointers, with a few seasons of a 10+ percentage point improvement.

Now let's look at the Carter-Mack-Seagers era:
Eli Carter: 35.3% (156) ... (32.0% (122) ... (transferred, injured) ... 30.5% (141) ... 27.9% (229)
Myles Mack: 33.8% (142) ... 46.2% (132) ... 35.9% (181) ... 32.4% (185)
Jerome Seagers: 33.3% (87) ... 38.1% (84) ... 41.6% (89) ... (transferred) ... 34.7% (124)

A bit more bouncy, to say the least.

What about current guys?

Corey Sanders: 31.5% (130) ... 26.9% (78) ... 21.2% (80)
Mike Williams: 24.0% (100) ... 32.0% (150) ... 29.9% (127) ... 24.1% (54)
Issa Thiam: 30.1% (93) ... 39.8% (98) ...

So Corey's regressed from an already-poor 31% and while Mike improved 25% to his sophomore year, he started too low for it to be a "good" number.

But imagine if Sanders' numbers had been like Williams'. 31.5% his freshman year, and then a 25% improvement would've put him at 39.4%! And then even if he fell off seven percent (as Williams did from SO to JR), he'd be at 36.6%.

What's my point? I don't really know. I lost track a while ago. But improvement from 3-point shooters is absolutely possible. Among the many other shortcomings of the program over the last 15+ years, this complete lack of development is is yet another reason we've remained in the basement.

Problem with looking at the numbers that way is that it misses development of players who transferred out, and also includes Juco players and inbound transfers. If you have a lot of 3 and 4-year players (like Jay Wright) and don't have a ton of outbound transfers or need for Juco/grad transfers, you may see more consistent growth.

It's just much harder to show "1st year vs. 2nd year" than it is to show "freshman vs. sophomore".

 

[RW90]

The biggest senior year changes in shooting percentages I seem to recall were Damon Santiago and Ricky Shields. I actually thought Ricky regressed a lot his senior year which was surprising given all the defensive attention paid to Douby.

 

[RU-ROCS]

Take a look at the 3 point shooting percentages of the Purdue shooters - Mathias, Thompson and C. Edwards, Mathias/Thompson from freshman to senior years and Edwards from freshman to sophomore year. Huge improvements and significant increase to number of attempts.

Agreed. Mathias is a prime example. His 3 pt. shooting %s are as follows:

.464% (2017-18)

.453 (2016-17)

.386 (2015-16)

.322 (2014-15)

 

[dpwhite]

Agreed. Mathias is a prime example. His 3 pt. shooting %s are as follows:

.464% (2017-18)

.453 (2016-17)

.386 (2015-16)

.322 (2014-15)

I wonder if part of this is recruiting. More weapons make it tougher for the defense. Plus repetition in practice. Knowing how to get open, knowing the plays. I expect Geo to be better next year. Issa too. How much better? I don't know, but experience will help.

 

[jtung230]

You can become a better shooter with practice. The key word is "better".