Everyone else is making a thread so why not? I've specifically steered away from the kneejerk game to game reactions mainly for my own sanity but now that the season is basically over I might as well get my thoughts down.
I think the team is clearly beat up, significantly worse than the normal wear-and-tear of a regular season. Mag is out, obviously. McConnell, fairly obviously, is nowhere close to 100%. Remember how awkward he looked coming back from the knee injury? And then he played 33 minutes a game. I'm certain that was an issue all season long and that's before we get to his back. For Mulcahy, I'll be shocked if 72 hours pass from the end of the season without a "Paul was playing with a significant shoulder injury" announcement. Labrum, rotator cuff... something. And I wouldn't be surprised if something also came out about Cliff, though his is closer to normal wear and tear. So with that context here's my rundown of the roster.
Group 1 - The Core
Paul Mulcahy - Would love for him to come back next year but it can't be as the main point guard. That's just not working and will not magically start working in Year 5. He needs to be a glue guy on the wing akin to Connor McCaffrey's role on Iowa. Connor has the luxury of not needing to put up shots for Iowa's offense to work. It's on Pikiell to bring in the right players so that the offense is not dependent on Mulcahy but rather is enhanced by what he can do.
Cliff Omoruyi - Really hope he comes back too. He hasn't progressed the way we all hoped but a big man can only do so much without the threat of anyone else getting into the paint and scoring. He was so good last year because Geo and Ron could both make things happen inside the arc and draw help defenders to free him up. It's also not correct to say he didn't get better at all. His rebounding numbers and block rate were both up.
Cam Spencer - A home run in the transfer portal. Anyone hoping for more than what he gave us is delusional. No, he's not going to carry an offense but a guy shooting 43% on 4.5 threes a game is what we've been missing forever. The goal next year should be to open things up for him to get 5+ attempts a game. He gets what he can out of his limited athleticism on defense. Absolutely thrilled with him. Just please knock off the 17 foot fadeaway next season.
Mawot Mag - It's not really shocking the season took such a turn when our only two-way player went down. Everyone else on the roster is way better on one side of the ball or the other and it made us too easy to scout and exploit. He was blossoming on both sides of the ball and we need him healthy.
I think this group is a solid starting base for a tournament team. You've got shooting in Spencer (and Mulcahy isn't a bad shooter, just very low volume). You've got passing in Mulcahy. You've got a big man in Cliff. You've got defense in Mag. All four are a good size for their position and they'll all have multiple years in Pikiell's system. Certainly pieces will need to be added and we'll get to that.
Group 2 - The Freshmen
Derek Simpson - I admit I got a bit suckered into the Geo comparison. But when I watched Geo play in the exhibition against St. John's before his freshman year even began, I tweeted the following: "Geo Baker is already the best passer Rutgers basketball has had in years." Admittedly it was a low bar coming off the Eddie Jordan era but it was clear that the way he saw the court and got the right spot to make a pass was going to make the team better. I saw that in game 1 with Geo. I didn't see that all year with Simpson. That's not to say he can't be a positive contributor to the team but anyone talking about Simpson as a point guard is not worth taking seriously. He did not show the playmaking or distributing attributes necessary. At best he's a combo guard but he's got to shore those things up.
Now he did show some promise. He can drive both ways, but he's got to tighten up his handle. He's got enough quickness, but he's got to stronger with his finishes. His shooting form isn't bad but obviously 10 for 48 is unacceptable from a guard. I'm not saying he can't or won't get better... Wade Taylor on Texas A&M shot 39% on twos and 28% on threes as a freshman and now as a sophomore he's first team All SEC. (Simpson shot 42% and 21% for reference, but on a lower volume. A&M handed Taylor the keys from day 1). Simpson isn't going to morph into Wade Taylor as a sophomore, but he's also not going to be the same player we saw as a freshman. We'll circle back to this uncertainty.
Antwone Woolfolk - Wasn't ready for Big Ten minutes.
Antonio Chol - Wasn't even ready for NEC minutes.
There's some potential here but anybody penciling in average Big Ten level play from these three is wishcasting. If they get there next season it will be a pleasant surprise (or in Chol's case a total shock). If you were talking with a fan of any other Big Ten team about their roster for next year and they were writing in someone with Simpson's stats (and lack of recruiting pedigree) as a starter for 2023-24 your reaction would be: yeah, good luck with that. His numbers are close to Kanye Clary (Penn State) and Joshua Ola-Joseph (Minnesota)... ask yourself if you're expecting big things from those two next year.
Group 3 - Thanks
Aundre Hyatt - Somebody had to take shots on this team so I do appreciate that Hyatt was at least a willing shooter. Unfortunately we're talking about a guy who is now a 28.5% three point shooter on 274 attempts. You know how many high major players attempted at least 140 three pointers and shot a worse percentage than Hyatt? Just two. The ideal version of Hyatt never materialized and it's not going to pop up in his 6th year of college. When our big four game run happened last season he played 31 minutes total. Playing him 31 minutes a night is way too big an ask. Rooting for you wherever you end up.
Jalen Miller - Thanks for the defensive energy last season -- it was sorely needed. Rooting for you in the CAA.
Oskar Palmquist - Thanks for the offense against Wisconsin and Penn State. Rooting for you in the MAAC.... maybe.
Dean Reiber - Thanks for the lift against Penn State last year when Cliff picked up the early fouls. Rooting for you in C-USA... maybe
I suspect Hyatt is going to the controversial one here. He's obviously a more capable high-major player than the other ones listed. But like I said off the top in order for Rutgers to get better, Mulcahy has to find a different role. And Mag is getting major wing minutes. And we're going to need to get Gavin Griffiths in there. That leaves Hyatt as the odd man out.
So What Does 2023-24 Look Like?
Let's say the roster breaks down like that. Seven returnees plus three incoming freshmen leaves two scholarships available (I do not expect Pikiell to start using the 13th scholarship on a real body... it will be saved for a walk-on).
In that case priority 1, 2, and 3 is finding a point guard in the portal. No messing around. We cannot rely on the enigmatic or uncertain combination of Paul Mulcahy, Derek Simpson, and JaMichael Davis. If Pikiell had landed Kyle Lofton or been able to get Sam Sessoms here (grades may have been an issue) we'd be safely in the field. I wanted Cam Wynter... the guy who just made back to back game winners for Penn State. I don't want to hear that guys don't want to come here because we have Mulcahy and Simpson when Penn State got Wynter to come and play with Jalen Pickett.
I'm picturing a starting lineup of:
Transfer PG
Mulcahy
Griffiths
Mag
Omoruyi
And a bench of Simpson, Spencer, Davis, Ndongo, Woolfolk. I do write in Davis and Ndongo with the assumption that they're at or ahead of where Simpson and Woolfolk were this year. Ndongo is a top 150 guy and Davis has been playing with and against elite players (like Ace Bailey) unlike Simpson who was playing against South Jersey public schoolers. Between the four of them we should have two players able to give capable rotation minutes.
So that gets us to 10. Chol is 11... I'm not really expecting anything out of him. He's incredibly raw and 2023-24 would be his true freshman season if not for the late reclassification. Anything we get from him is gravy. And one scholarship will go to a walk-on. Do we get another transfer...?
This is where I come back to Reiber and Palmquist. I think one will be back. Pikiell likes them and they know the system. We need frontcourt depth especially early on as Mag is coming back from the injury. We know Pikiell values chemistry and it's going to be a lot easier to send one of those guys to the bench once Mag is back as opposed to a transfer who might be unhappy with it. (Or Hyatt, to whom that would also apply I think)
The way this doesn't happen is if Pikiell lands a big fish 4 in the portal and then uses Mag as the ultimate versatile 6th man. This would be a terrific outcome but the portal tends to be very guard heavy and the 4s and 5s tend to outkick their coverage, so to speak. See: Pete Nance ending up at UNC. If he goes this route it has to be a slam dunk that the guy is an upgrade... like whoever this year's version of Matthew Mayer is in the portal.
I give this a low probability. So if Mag is out to start the year we could go small with Spencer in there, or play Palmquist. Will that lineup get destroyed on the boards? Probably, but you'd at least like to think there would be a lot more made shots than the usual Rutgers lineup and thus fewer rebounds to try and grab anyway.
Been typing too long and don't have a good way to end this but I'll probably just spam this thread with my random thoughts and transfer portal targets as we go.
