O.T.-Why is everybody so upset about the stock market?
- Thread starter RUhasarrived
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unless your horizon is within 18 months, you are much better off not trying to time the market..then again the reason the term "risk adverse" exists is because some people can't live with risk even thought there is a clear cut winning strategy in dollar averaging. Its just human nature.
Asian stocks off almost double digits overnight, US futures down over 3% overnight. So almthos market timing wizards that were getting back on Friday...where is the bottom of this one? This correction is long overdue, but how deep will it go?
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/world-indexes/asia-pacific
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nge-is-fastest-since-1987-crash-on-china-woes
This is why, just imagine, Asian econonies slowing and 1million, 10 million Chinese decide its time to go elsewhere......rounding error on their population.
Markets arent scary, they are simply data points, used to this crap after having been through every crisis the last 30 yrs in a front row seat.
This is why, just imagine, Asian econonies slowing and 1million, 10 million Chinese decide its time to go elsewhere......rounding error on their population.
Markets arent scary, they are simply data points, used to this crap after having been through every crisis the last 30 yrs in a front row seat.
Well, I did move out of the market (85%cash) 2 weeks ago and did buy Thurs and Fri (65% cash left). I am more caution now and will buy a little today like JNJ, GE and DIS. I will continue buying at 15% down and expect no lower than 20%. This is still better than if I left it in stocks 2 weeks ago. I have been in the market for 35 years so been in a few downturns.
I was also out in the 2008 cash.
Well looks like another terrible morning, we'll see if anything changes by afternoon or it continues. I still think it's short term oversold and some sort of bounce may come sooner rather than later but again who knows. With electronic trading/quants, etc..I always feel things move quickly and extremely when sentiment gets extreme too. So while things seem short term oversold they can still get even moreso. After 2008 though, for me these things don't seem as scary.
China is the 2nd largest economy in the world so if they slow, it's going to reverberate around the world. I think the US is probably more "insulated" than other countries though. We're a consumer driven economy and we buy much more from China than we sell to them, Europe and others are probably more affected. Mind you though there's no way to stop the domino impacts here they're going to come, but I think the US is probably the best out of the bunch.
As to the correction, I always feel wary when too many talking heads say the same thing and why I think there's a decent chance for a resumption down even after whatever short term bounce may happen. Will it turn into from a correction into a bear market? Don't know, if it is a correction or more. However, at the very least I think it'll be a deeper one than 10-12%. Again who knows.
To me it's a chance to look for opportunities to slowly dip your toes in the water. Never go in full bore or all at once. I did the same in the crash by slowly putting money into high quality names (specifically top dividend names) and it worked out very well. I don't see this as any financial crash or anything and I don't see any financial crisis here with all the new regulations instituted. If I used that blueprint during the crash and it worked, I'll do the same again. Like I said though, if you don't have the inclination or are scared, then I wouldn't bother. Know your own psychology and act accordingly.
China is the 2nd largest economy in the world so if they slow, it's going to reverberate around the world. I think the US is probably more "insulated" than other countries though. We're a consumer driven economy and we buy much more from China than we sell to them, Europe and others are probably more affected. Mind you though there's no way to stop the domino impacts here they're going to come, but I think the US is probably the best out of the bunch.
As to the correction, I always feel wary when too many talking heads say the same thing and why I think there's a decent chance for a resumption down even after whatever short term bounce may happen. Will it turn into from a correction into a bear market? Don't know, if it is a correction or more. However, at the very least I think it'll be a deeper one than 10-12%. Again who knows.
To me it's a chance to look for opportunities to slowly dip your toes in the water. Never go in full bore or all at once. I did the same in the crash by slowly putting money into high quality names (specifically top dividend names) and it worked out very well. I don't see this as any financial crash or anything and I don't see any financial crisis here with all the new regulations instituted. If I used that blueprint during the crash and it worked, I'll do the same again. Like I said though, if you don't have the inclination or are scared, then I wouldn't bother. Know your own psychology and act accordingly.
On the banks that is one bad move. Who gave you that advice? Get rid of him or her.
What % of cash did you have before you moved out of the market? 85% cash two weeks ago sounds great unless you were at 50% cash for the last 2yrs.
Opening of the Chinese markets does not fare well for the Dow today. The Chinese have two options. The first is to announce how much gold they really have. To date they have claimed to have only a 1,000 or so tons while most experts peg it between 15 and 20,000 tons. The second is to send all of their treasuries back to the US. Either event will trigger a meltdown in the US market.
The only thing that is saving us is our ability to print money and because we serve as the world's reserve currency. If we go QE 4, it just delays the inevitable and makes the crash worse when it happens. If and when we lose our status as the world's reserve currency, we are in a world of trouble.
The only question (at least in my mind) is when and how big the crash is going to be. This is not the end of the world folks (unless we go to war) but it will probably mean some kind of reset, so the challenge for all of us will be how long it will take to get things up and running under a new monetary system and how long it will take. And these are questions that nobody has the answer to.
If you have to be in the market, I would advise betting against it by buying funds like the Prudent Bear Fund. .
The only thing that is saving us is our ability to print money and because we serve as the world's reserve currency. If we go QE 4, it just delays the inevitable and makes the crash worse when it happens. If and when we lose our status as the world's reserve currency, we are in a world of trouble.
The only question (at least in my mind) is when and how big the crash is going to be. This is not the end of the world folks (unless we go to war) but it will probably mean some kind of reset, so the challenge for all of us will be how long it will take to get things up and running under a new monetary system and how long it will take. And these are questions that nobody has the answer to.
If you have to be in the market, I would advise betting against it by buying funds like the Prudent Bear Fund. .
Mmmm maybe because people lost money? Just a wild guess but I think people losing money would be a reason to be upset .
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Suppose you are playing cards and you are up $10,000.........you hit a bad stretch and are now only up $7,500....do you consider getting y as having lost money, or are you ahead?
You can get up from the table, and that is fine, but really long time investors are playing with house money, so to speak....
I did not lose money in the crash of 2008 and Was fully invested in the stock market at the time.... I was nervous like everybody else but I rode it out.
As long as we do not have what happened to JApan decades ago we should be fine
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Agree with some here who say stay your course long term and don't try to time the market. Almost nobody can tell what is going to happen in 12 months, let alone tomorrow in the market - and the ones who have a true inside track I doubt are posting their insight on the Rutgers Football boards. Bottom line find a strategy, stick to it long term, and ride the waves of the market which history tell us will gain over the long term.
Albany, you really need to understand the China issue before you post stuff like this. China is trying to devalue their currency to stimulate growth. Both of your options would do the opposite. You can be bearish but do it with the right reasons and facts. The 10yr treasury is below 2% again. Fed is looking to raise rates. Everyone is trying to find yield. Does this point to a treasury sell off by China?
I do agree with you the market is in Bearish territory. But my reason is that it is and has been over inflated due to low yields. It's been a good run and people are looking to lock in some gains.
I would normally have about 25-35% in cash. At some point, everyone thought the market was high and earnings period was over and cyclical the market was going down till next earning period.
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There are many times the market seems high, then it goes even higher.... You cannot go on gut feelings, one would have to have info on particular issues going bad, like the housing market problem 8 years ago to react in a way that makes sense
Some funky trading at the open. Some top high quality names trading at crazy prices down 8-13% down. That's electronic trading for you whew.
biggest one day Dow loss is 777 points back in September of 2008. It was down over 1,000 points on the open. Now down only 650.
Personally I am not concerned I have a long term strategy and I stay the course . I am getting lots of stocks on sale sort of speak when barley is done. But that is me. There are many on here who lost and have had other strategy or plan and you can't dismiss them for being a little concerned
I can't explain the mechanics of it but I don't even know if some of those prices were "real." Names like VZ/GE/JNJ and others down 8-13%, it doesn't make sense. Like I said with all the electronic/algorithmic trading these days "funny" things happen. I couldn't even get my orders in on Fidelity let alone execute. I see complaints from others on TD Ameritrade/Scott Trade as well.
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So you are basically doing the same..... I do admit to being afraid to commit any other money to stocks as this happens, but stay the course with what I have in the market,
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My friend. It is you who do not understand the China issue. China is in full meltdown mode. Their bigger play is to bring down the American economy and assume the role of the world's reserve currency. The growth game is the last thing they are thinking about now. What they are trying to do is save the Chinese economy. Do you think they are going to get out of this mess by stimulating exports to countries like the United States?
This is all above my pay grade and I could be very wrong but I have a feeling the rest of the world wouldn't be to keen on having a government like China running the global economy.
One of these "funny" electronic things...
I checked my portfolio to see how bad it was. One ETF in there was down 43% at one point. Has now settled down 3% on the day.
Glad I wasn't that heavily invested there. This could trigger margin calls and all sorts of problems for the average buy and hold investor.
I'm just offering some friendly advise. If you think China's main goal is to destroy our economy (even if they have to blow up their own economy) then your strategy is very sound. But logically, it doesn't make sense. You can't assume the world's reserve currency when you openly manipulate the value. How do they save their economy when the U.S. Can't buy their goods? I guess the question is who will China trade with that can replace the U.S.?
Just to be clear when I said "funny," I don't mean hysterical just weird/strange. There were quite a few crazy dislocations. Pepsi was in the mid 90s and it traded to mid 70s. GE below 20, JNJ low 80s, etc.. It seemed like that PG flash crash from a few years ago. Was it real or not, I don't know. Will all those trades stand? Some might, some might not. Good for those who got lucky. Unfortunately, I wasn't one of them.
Markets showing a few signs of life here at lunchtime but we'll see later in the afternoon if it resumes down or we get a reversal. I've nibbled at a couple things this morning but not at the crazy low prices of the open. We'll see what happens later today and the week ahead.
Thank you for the friendly advise. Please tell me if your premise is correct; why the Chinese along with India and Russia have been accumulating as much gold as they can get their hands on if according to you, their goal is to stimulate growth through devaluation?
China's goal is the same as ours to grow and prosper. Actually, I believe the Chinese will come out better than us in the long run because when push comes to shove, the world will learn that the Chinese have 20,000 tons of gold. We on the other hand have nowhere near that amount of gold.
Their goal is not to destroy us but like it or not we compete against each other. As the saying goes, first you have trade wars, then currency wars and eventually world wars. We are in a currency war with the BRICS nations. That is not up for debate. My only hope things don't turn into a world war.
I am attaching a very good video out of Australia that you might find interesting.
Best of luck to you.
China's goal is the same as ours to grow and prosper. Actually, I believe the Chinese will come out better than us in the long run because when push comes to shove, the world will learn that the Chinese have 20,000 tons of gold. We on the other hand have nowhere near that amount of gold.
Their goal is not to destroy us but like it or not we compete against each other. As the saying goes, first you have trade wars, then currency wars and eventually world wars. We are in a currency war with the BRICS nations. That is not up for debate. My only hope things don't turn into a world war.
I am attaching a very good video out of Australia that you might find interesting.
Best of luck to you.
Albany, I think my premise is correct. The stock market was over inflated and due for a correction. If you are right that China, India, and Russia is buying up all the gold they can, why is gold prices down for the last 3 years? I'm not trying to convince you. Just want to provide an objective view. This is my last 2 cents. Happy trading.
Very simply because the precious metals market is being manipulated just like the Libor market was manipulated. We will just have to respectfully disagree.
The Chinese are apparently accumulating gold. They will be well positioned if fiat currencies fail. With their large holdings of US Treasuries they are not interested in a fiat currency failure but they are hedging their bets.
"First you have trade wars, then currency wars and eventually world wars." How true and how alarming that the economically illiterate are rallying around Trump and Sanders. Trump with his bellicose threats against China is a danger not only to our economic well-being but to world peace.
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Asking how they bring down the U.S. Economy without theirs going through a similar problem and then their currency becomes the world reserve
At this time all the worlds economies are not looking good, why would a change be made To China when they started the problem?
Guys, I think we need to calm down on this China trying to destroy the US economy stuff. The US, Chinese, and Japanese stock markets are way, way, way overvalued due to the QE pumping and the like. A correction is a good thing, which hopefully this is. It may prevent a crash of historic proportions. PE ratios are at historic highs vs the mean (2SDs greater) and margin debt is at the higher amount of recorded history. It doesn't take a Warren Buffet to realize what is going to happen.
"I think we need to calm down on this China trying to destroy the US economy stuff." Agreed; destroying the US economy would destroy China's economy. The problem is, as witnessed by the number of people who think Trump's idea to get tough on China is a good one, that a politician will exploit the economic fears of the population and start a trade war that destroys both economies.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stock-up-on-canned-food-for-stock-market-crash-warns-former-gordon-brown-advisor-10469509.htmlHere's someone that agrees with Albanyknight, besides me.
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Well if that happens you can take gun control off the table for the next 200 years....
Here's someone that agrees with Albanyknight, besides me.
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trading was halted over 1,200 times yesterday...granted it was short breaks in the action, but they are designed to try to stem any
frantic move up or down in the market...
that, coupled with very, very high volume, probably delayed your orders.
