OT: a good friend is STUCK IN CHINA
- Thread starter AreYouNUTS
- Start date
France.. and every other country.. should take them to an island somewhere. Not the continent. Quarantine them there for a long time. Why mess around?
What would be the point of holding someone in quarantine way beyond the incubation period of the sickness?
we don't know enough about that.. do we? these are all early days... who knows what it really is. the incubation period is between 2 and 14 days.. why not make it 21 days just to be more sure? viruses mutate.
How Dangerous?
Other countries are taking similar measures as far as quarantine I’ve read now.
NUTS, just saw an article regarding 201 Americans landing at March AFB in Cali. Pic of Kalitta Air 747? in article. Assuming your friend and family were on this flight. Article said they will be quarantined for only 72 hours. Id paste article but have no idea how to do it from my phone. Best of luck to them. Glad they made it out. article was in Daily Mail out of UK. Would be interested to know if there is a way to test for virus without waiting full incubation period.
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Can't trust China to report actual numbers of those infected
Yep, they got in earlier today, all good! Three days quarantined and they were actually interviewed and on ABC world news tonight earlier this evening. I took a screenshot of my TV but I have yet to figure out how to post pictures on this site since it was redone lol.... Very easy on the other site though!
I'm going with over a 100...as indicated in the URL. :Wink:
It’s the first story of the broadcast at around the 1:50 mark it starts. Have to verify your internet provider.
https://abc.com/shows/world-news-tonight/episode-guide/2020-01/29-wednesday-jan-29-2020
Just saw where they're now seeing cases of this in all regions of China.
News of that flight made the BBC:
Two hundred Americans to face quarantine in California
News of that flight made the BBC:
Two hundred Americans to face quarantine in California
This has kind of been touched upon but just to put in perspective.
There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.
The Centers for Disease Control predicts at least 12,000 people will die from the flu in the US every year. In the 2017-2018 flu season, as many as 61,000 people died, and 45 million were sickened.
In the 2019-2020 season so far, 15 million people in the US have gotten the flu and 8,200 people have died from it, including at least 54 children.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html
There's another virus that has infected 15 million Americans across the country and killed more than 8,200 people this season alone. It's not a new pandemic -- it's influenza.
The Centers for Disease Control predicts at least 12,000 people will die from the flu in the US every year. In the 2017-2018 flu season, as many as 61,000 people died, and 45 million were sickened.
In the 2019-2020 season so far, 15 million people in the US have gotten the flu and 8,200 people have died from it, including at least 54 children.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/01/30/health/flu-deadly-virus-15-million-infected-trnd/index.html
A friend is an expat with many friends still in China. They tell him to add a zero onto any number the Chinese government reports. The way China has responded suggests they know this is a very very big deal.
Well yeah, that was obvious when the outbreak was first reported in Wuhan.
Elmira Express : We have seen a number of articles over the past several days which depict those China markets housing livestock , rodents , birds snakes , spiders , bats etc. along with very unsanitary conditions so before you call someone out for “ not be truthful” I would suggest you know WTF you’re defending . The Chinese government and not the people are a big problem . The Great Pandemic of 1918 ( Spanish Flu) originated in China. Hey they could lose 400 mil and still be the 2nd largest country in population . Think about those modern conveniences you praised a few days ago.
Thought the liberal media was fake news. Now we can’t trust the state media.
30 days would be a safer number of days in isolation. 2 weeks is insufficient. A very scary scenario for those people who have been there within the past 2-3 weeks.
The Influenza virus has herd immunity and spreads to about 1.28 people for every 1 infected person. So that means influenza has been around and many people have developed immunity to it.
This Virus is NCOV - the N stand for new - nobody on planet earth has been exposed to this strain of the Corona Virus before this outbreak. So there is no herd immunity to it.
If the attached video is true and RO factor is 4 or above - that means 1 infected person can spread it to 4 other people you have the Spanish Flu plus - think the Spanish flu was in the high 2 or 3.
Nobody is going to stop it - except warm weather. We are about 3 weeks behind China. imo
Peace out
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Herd_immunity
Wuhan is the size of NYC - 5 million people got out before the quarantine for their New Year.
They travel for their New Year - some to the US...ive heard there are 17 cases in CA already.
The US has not shut down flights from China to the US - yet. So it's here - now....
These Virus's thrive in cold weather - not hot weather - so it will go dormant say in May or June for the NE and come back in November/December 2020. That's how the Spanish Flu worked in 1918 - the second wave just killed everyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
PS - I would not eat at any US fast food restaurants until further notice.
Fast food chains reveal China suppliers
https://money.cnn.com/2014/08/12/news/china-fast-food-suppliers/
They travel for their New Year - some to the US...ive heard there are 17 cases in CA already.
The US has not shut down flights from China to the US - yet. So it's here - now....
These Virus's thrive in cold weather - not hot weather - so it will go dormant say in May or June for the NE and come back in November/December 2020. That's how the Spanish Flu worked in 1918 - the second wave just killed everyone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
PS - I would not eat at any US fast food restaurants until further notice.
Fast food chains reveal China suppliers
https://money.cnn.com/2014/08/12/news/china-fast-food-suppliers/
So you're saying heading to Florida is a good idea? And driving an SUV there to promote Global Warming is a good idea? And maybe China's Bio-Weapons are being used to think the herd over there?
Good discussion here about China from expats from US and South Africa about China - these Wet markets and bat stew an eye opener to say the least. Couldn't see anything going wrong here - people eating bats - snakes - etc.
Bro - there is no cure...they guess at the Influenza Vaccine every year and never get it right....if the Influenza Vaccine is so good - why are all these people dying from Influenza.
Its a shot in the dark - they have no idea what strain of Influenza will hit for the following year - bitch. Didnt you know that smart guy? I dont think they have got it right yet.
Idiot. lol
Folks - if you really want the best info on this coronavirus, read the NY Times link below - it's superb (although a lot longer than what I tried to put together below, lol).
As usual, you're full of misinformation. Viruses don't thrive in the cold - they do much better at body temperature inside the host. The reason viruses are transmitted much more readily in the winter in the northern and southern hemispheres is a combination of cool, dry conditions, which lead to drier mucus, leading to more easily airborne virus particles; in addition, viruses will survive a bit longer outside the host in cool dry conditions. Also, people tend to congregate in groups, inside, much more in cold weather (especially around the holidays). And viruses don't go "dormant" in warm weather - it's simply that transmission rates are much lower, so incidence is much lower.
And while this novel coronavirus (nCoV) is a serious world health risk, just like SARS was, it's extremely unlikely to become anything like the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic which killed 20-100MM of the 500MM infected, as it was much more transmissible and had a much greater death rate than typical influenza viruses, which, combined with the complete lack of understanding of how viruses spread and the lack of medical treatment options, led to those very scary numbers. The fact that the flu usually has a low death rate (0.1% or so vs. the 2-3% of the Spanish Flu) is one of the biggest reasons people don't take it as seriously as they probably should - the seasonal flu still infects ~500MM people a year and kills ~500,000.
Also, that video you shared from "Doctor" Martenson (not an MD) is full of exaggerations and only focuses on the potential worst case from that non-peer-reviewed Chinese medical data. Most experts think the R0 reproduction number of 4.08 they estimated is erroneously high as per the link below (WHO estimates between 1.4 and 2.5, while other experts think the range is 1.5-3.5, which is in the same range as the ~3 of SARS). However, I do think he was right to call out the slow response in China, initially, as others have.
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-pers...ncov-more-infectious-sars-experts-have-doubts
The reason the number of cases are now higher than the SARS outbreak (which is likely fueling the high R0 estimates) is likely what the NY Times article said: that transportation in and out of China and around China is 4X greater than it was even just back in 2003, when SARS hit (so it spread faster), plus it looks like the Chinese were slower to respond this time. That might be due to the fact that SARS had a CFR (case fatality rate) of about 7-10% and it looks like nCoV has a likely CFR around 2-3%. In the end, SARS infected about 8100 people and killed about 770 and already nCoV has infected 10,000+ (known cases) and probably many more - which is good and bad - it's bad because there are likely more cases, but it's good in that the actual CFR is likely lower than projected, since there are likely many mild to non-symptomatic cases.
https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/1/31/21115109/coronavirus-outbreak-end-sars-comparison
Hopefully, the more aggressive current public health steps in China will greatly slow down the current rate of transmission. This kind of effort was effective in snuffing out SARS within a year (and would've made a huge difference in the 1918 pandemic). The other major steps that need to be taken appear like they are now in many countries of quarantine and tracking of potentially infected people and travelers from Wuhan/China, as well as simple measures like frequent hand-washing, decontamination of surfaces, and wearing masks - these kinds of steps actually change the R0, which is a transmission rate assuming no vaccine (there is none yet obviously - takes about a year to get one - and in the case of SARS, by the time it was ready, it wasn't needed) and no public health measures. With health professionals now looking for cases, I would think that transmission rates will be much lower in the US, just like they were for SARS.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/world/asia/china-coronavirus-contain.html
You might have a week to 10 days...to get your supplies. Once the panic hits around the tri-state area - too late.
Shoprite sells a 50lb bag of Carolina Rice for 21 bucks - get that and Target has a sale on Bush's Black Beans for 79 cents a can - get that...stock up!
Protect yourself - protect your family - till May the weather warms up and regroup after that.
And Water - you need that - you can go 30 days without food but only 1 day without water - so secure clean drinking water.
So what are you going to do if they say - the town water is contaminated? You better have a galllon per person per day in your family of fresh drinking water .
Peace out
Shoprite sells a 50lb bag of Carolina Rice for 21 bucks - get that and Target has a sale on Bush's Black Beans for 79 cents a can - get that...stock up!
Protect yourself - protect your family - till May the weather warms up and regroup after that.
And Water - you need that - you can go 30 days without food but only 1 day without water - so secure clean drinking water.
So what are you going to do if they say - the town water is contaminated? You better have a galllon per person per day in your family of fresh drinking water .
Peace out
Wrong again - you are completely clueless - you don't even understand the difference between a cure (eliminating a disease once someone has it and yes, there is no "cure" for the flu) and a vaccine, which can prevent infection in the first place. The flu vaccine is moderately effective, reducing lab-confirmed influenza cases by about 60%.
Most of the people who die of the flu are immunocompromised or less healthy populations, like babies, the elderly, and those with respiratory illnesses to begin with and the elderly who get the vaccine, but still get the flu are about 50% less likely to suffer hospitalizations than those who did not get the vaccine, so it has some protective benefits even for people who get the flu.
Also, the annual flu vaccine is an educated guess based on global trends in observed viruses (especially looking at the flu in the winter in the southern hemisphere for us in the northern hemisphere and vice-versa), which is why it's not close to foolproof like most vaccines. So you're clueless about everything in your post above. Congrats on being perhaps the biggest moron on the board.
https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/how-effective-is-flu-vaccine#1
Yup - listen to this idiot - China doesnt have enough test kits to test their people. They have no idea how many people are infected but sure listen to the NY Times...lmao
I really don't care what you do - I have 100lbs of Rice - can goods up the ass - N95 masks - goggles - Silver - Gold - Guns - Lead.
But please listen to the NY Times - I guess you can eat a newspaper.
Peace out
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