OT: Big Heatwave/EDIT: Debbie passes well to west but band of showers and squall line and tornado watch to get thru
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
I'm not one of the weather guys here, but it seems like the bulk of the moisture will arrive late Friday afternoon and evening. And there will be more of it out towards PA.
Same with us, up until this recent rainy stretch we've had bright, very hot sunshine.
Is it outdoors? If not, there will likely be some rain and t-storms, but nothing torrential, with 1/4-1/2" of rain in the forecast for Friday night (6 pm to 6 am). Could affect traffic though at rush hour on a Friday, like rain usually does.
Looks like we'll only be getting around 1.5 inches in the Smyrna area which is disappointing because i was looking for at least 2-3 inches from this storm. I don't know what it is with the weather south of the St. Georges and Roth bridges in Middletown smh through 10 minutes above Dover but thunderstorms/rain greatly diminish in our area...
Debby leaking a tad more west
I feel bad for anyone who rented a shore house this week, other than Monday its been cold, gray, foggy and rainy most of the week. Thankfully the weekend looks great!
I'm getting conflicting rain predictions for the Montville (Morris County) area. Am I looking for a couple of inches tomorrow or more?
Crummy. The beach was very lightly-populated when I got out there a couple of hours ago. I made the best of it, and got all my stuff done, but like you said, it would be a bad break for anybody for whom this was "the week."
Our model indicates there is still a chance (low) Debby turns to the right through NJ.Debby leaking a tad more west
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Expect an active next 18 to 24 hours across the region as a
number of different impacts will felt across the region.
The first rounds of rain bands from the remnants of Debby have
moved over the region and we will continue to see periods of
rainfall throughout the next day. The bands have been moving
fast enough thus far to limit flash flooding but the tropical
rainfall is starting to accumulation in portions of DelMarVa and
latest ACARS soundings are verifying that we are solidly in a
tropical environment, with high precipitable water values and
very deep warm cloud layers, so localized flash flooding cant be
ruled out this evening.
Into the overnight hours, low level shear continues to
increase, though we will likely keep a stable boundary layer,
even as the remnant front lifts northward.
On Friday, Debby will lift northward through central PA as it passes
to our west while merging with a frontal boundary. This will cause
it to start to take on more in the way of extra tropical
characteristics, though it will still have plenty of moisture
with it (PWATs 2.5+ inches). With a track farther west, this
means that the very heaviest of the rain should stay to our
west and guidance has kept that trend. Even so widespread
showers will impact the region with a growing concern for
embedded tornados.
We are anticipating a buoyant airmass with a tremendous amount
of low level shear (0-1 km shear 30-40+ knots) and helicity
along with lowering LCLs. This will create favorable conditions
for tornados to develop which is not uncommon for scenarios like
this where a tropical system passes to the west. SPC has
upgraded the area to a SLGT risk with a 5% TOR for areas along
and west of the I95 corridor. Forecast guidance continues to
indicate the potential for discrete cells in the warm section
across DelMarVA, southeastern PA and NJ with spin potential.
As a second round, then a squall line of starts passing through
the area late in the afternoon into the evening from west to
east. There could be tornadic circulations that develop within
this line as well as in earlier cells and clusters that develop
and move through south to north ahead of the line.
The next threat, will be that a strong low level jet between
40-55 kts develops at 850mb. With widespread rain that would be
convective at times, anticipate occasional gusts of 40 to 50 mph
to be possible mixing down. I dont anticipate frequent gusts or
prevailing strong winds, but those occasional gusts when
combined with saturated soils will have the potential to bring
down trees especially in the areas that received heavy rainfall
earlier this week.
The heaviest of the rain is likely to be north/west of the
urban corridor especially getting out into our western zones
from Berk`s County northward into the southern Poconos. Places
along and east of the I-95 corridor will still see some heavy
showers though and given how wet it`s been recently, this will
mean scattered instances of flash flooding will still be
possible.
For Friday night, Debby lifts north of the area as it moves
into eastern Canada by Saturday. As mentioned above, the final
punch of heavy rain and wind should move through in the evening
with conditions actually starting to clear out overnight. Total
rain amounts for the Friday / Friday night period should
generally be around 2 to 3 inches over N/W area, 1 to 2 inches
near the I-95 corridor and up to around an inch near the coast.
Locally, amounts could be higher than these numbers. And in
addition to the threat of flash flooding, there will be rises on
area creeks, rivers, and streams. This could result in at least
some points seeing river flooding by later Friday night into
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Pleasant weather follows in the wake of all the poor weather
from Thursday and Friday. High pressure ridges in from the west
and remains across the region. Mostly sunny weather is expected
Saturday with some clouds for the far N/W. Much drier air will
be in place and temperatures will be comfortable. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to low 80s with perhaps some mid 80s close to
the shore. West to northwest winds around 10 mph are forecast.
Expect an active next 18 to 24 hours across the region as a
number of different impacts will felt across the region.
The first rounds of rain bands from the remnants of Debby have
moved over the region and we will continue to see periods of
rainfall throughout the next day. The bands have been moving
fast enough thus far to limit flash flooding but the tropical
rainfall is starting to accumulation in portions of DelMarVa and
latest ACARS soundings are verifying that we are solidly in a
tropical environment, with high precipitable water values and
very deep warm cloud layers, so localized flash flooding cant be
ruled out this evening.
Into the overnight hours, low level shear continues to
increase, though we will likely keep a stable boundary layer,
even as the remnant front lifts northward.
On Friday, Debby will lift northward through central PA as it passes
to our west while merging with a frontal boundary. This will cause
it to start to take on more in the way of extra tropical
characteristics, though it will still have plenty of moisture
with it (PWATs 2.5+ inches). With a track farther west, this
means that the very heaviest of the rain should stay to our
west and guidance has kept that trend. Even so widespread
showers will impact the region with a growing concern for
embedded tornados.
We are anticipating a buoyant airmass with a tremendous amount
of low level shear (0-1 km shear 30-40+ knots) and helicity
along with lowering LCLs. This will create favorable conditions
for tornados to develop which is not uncommon for scenarios like
this where a tropical system passes to the west. SPC has
upgraded the area to a SLGT risk with a 5% TOR for areas along
and west of the I95 corridor. Forecast guidance continues to
indicate the potential for discrete cells in the warm section
across DelMarVA, southeastern PA and NJ with spin potential.
As a second round, then a squall line of starts passing through
the area late in the afternoon into the evening from west to
east. There could be tornadic circulations that develop within
this line as well as in earlier cells and clusters that develop
and move through south to north ahead of the line.
The next threat, will be that a strong low level jet between
40-55 kts develops at 850mb. With widespread rain that would be
convective at times, anticipate occasional gusts of 40 to 50 mph
to be possible mixing down. I dont anticipate frequent gusts or
prevailing strong winds, but those occasional gusts when
combined with saturated soils will have the potential to bring
down trees especially in the areas that received heavy rainfall
earlier this week.
The heaviest of the rain is likely to be north/west of the
urban corridor especially getting out into our western zones
from Berk`s County northward into the southern Poconos. Places
along and east of the I-95 corridor will still see some heavy
showers though and given how wet it`s been recently, this will
mean scattered instances of flash flooding will still be
possible.
For Friday night, Debby lifts north of the area as it moves
into eastern Canada by Saturday. As mentioned above, the final
punch of heavy rain and wind should move through in the evening
with conditions actually starting to clear out overnight. Total
rain amounts for the Friday / Friday night period should
generally be around 2 to 3 inches over N/W area, 1 to 2 inches
near the I-95 corridor and up to around an inch near the coast.
Locally, amounts could be higher than these numbers. And in
addition to the threat of flash flooding, there will be rises on
area creeks, rivers, and streams. This could result in at least
some points seeing river flooding by later Friday night into
Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Pleasant weather follows in the wake of all the poor weather
from Thursday and Friday. High pressure ridges in from the west
and remains across the region. Mostly sunny weather is expected
Saturday with some clouds for the far N/W. Much drier air will
be in place and temperatures will be comfortable. Highs will be
in the upper 70s to low 80s with perhaps some mid 80s close to
the shore. West to northwest winds around 10 mph are forecast.
My sister was at the Outer Bank this week and suppose to be back Saturday. Don’t know if they left. The car could have been flooded down there.
You definitely have credibility in this area - will definitely keep my eyes on this. What's your timing for here?
There's always a chance, but not a single model shows that and we're less than 24 hours from Debby being at our latitude, so I would consider that chance to be essentially nil. Doesn't mean there won't be significant impacts in our area, as many of us have posted.
Another nice write-up by the NWS-Philly with graphics on the risks, mostly tomorrow afternoon/evening, of flooding rains (mostly well NW of 95, but could reach the 95 corridor), high winds which could lead to scattered downed trees/wires/power outages (wind advisory up for everyone for gusts up to 50 mph, especially near the coast), potential small tornadoes (low, but non-zero probability east of the storm's track), and coastal flooding (mostly minor threat).
There could also be a sneaky PRE (predecessor rain event) tonight into tomorrow morning, as we're seeing down in MD/DE right now with heavy rains - not clear if that makes it up to CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC. Only a bit more than 24 hours to get through before gorgeous weather for several days starting by sunrise on Saturday.
There could also be a sneaky PRE (predecessor rain event) tonight into tomorrow morning, as we're seeing down in MD/DE right now with heavy rains - not clear if that makes it up to CNJ/NNJ/NEPA/NYC. Only a bit more than 24 hours to get through before gorgeous weather for several days starting by sunrise on Saturday.
Tomorrow most likely through Pennsylvania. We would still get rain. If it turns right, then we get the winds and such. Saturday and Sunday look to be clear. Storm moved north quickly than they initially thought.
Yea. My boss being one of them. He’s going to be miserable next week
China, lol. As per the NWS info above, the wind advisory is for the entire region, including the coast, where winds will be greatest, with gusts up to 50 mph likely tomorrow.
I have to ask - why no complaints about a 20-page thread for summer weather? Or did I miss them?
https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=PHI&wwa=wind advisory
Because I don’t consider this a singular event.
If the hurricane was a truly an issue for us here, believe me, you’d have heard my thoughts by now. 🙂
Left for UK, St. Andrews, Edinburgh and London last Wednesday, returning today.
Since our departure, outdoor activities have been pretty much cancelled at home.
That’s over a week of terrible weather
Since our departure, outdoor activities have been pretty much cancelled at home.
That’s over a week of terrible weather
Remnants of Debby even further west now. Going up through the middle of PA into NY.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/post-tropical-cyclone-debby
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2024/post-tropical-cyclone-debby
Thanks for the frequent and clear updates. The maps have been most useful. And thanks for properi spelling Debby!
TORNADO WATCH TODAY FOR MUCH OF NEW JERSEY
NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN
NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND ESSEX GLOUCESTER HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MORRIS PASSAIC SALEM SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN
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There is a new storm starting to develop in the same area out in the ocean. Right now a 50% chance of developing into a storm. Our models show it may have the same path as Debby.
Most of NJ has recieved between 3-5 inches of rain since Saturday. Another inch or more possible with the squall line later today
Wind and tree issues may be the bigger problem as we go through the day
Wind and tree issues may be the bigger problem as we go through the day
Dang, I've never heard of a "Dust Devil." Getting hit by an umbrella that fell a hundred feet would leave a mark...
I feel like I'm in an alternate universe, based on what I see out the window right now in Atlantic City. It's a beautiful sunny day here. But I know very little about meteorology...
I have friends flying in from FL into Newark around 3PM. They getting in, delayed, or canceled? :)
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