OT: Big Heatwave/EDIT: Debbie passes well to west but band of showers and squall line and tornado watch to get thru
- Thread starter bac2therac
- Start date
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Overview...Flash flooding risk from heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon
through overnight Tuesday as an approaching cold front clashes with
tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Debbie. This
predecessor rain event (PRE) has warranted a Flood Watch for much of
the forecast area surrounding the I-95 corridor and points north and
west.
For the rest of today...A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
may form along the seabreeze this afternoon as hot and humid
conditions persist. Any showers or storms should be confined to
mainly south Jersey and the Delmarva, but a rogue showers cannot
be ruled out for the Philly Metro area and areas adjacent to
the Delaware River. Overnight, mostly quiet rain- wise but still
rather muggy with temperatures only cooling to the low/mid 70s
and dew points within that range.
For Tuesday...We will start out mostly dry Tuesday morning before
the heavy rain arrives. As a cold front approaches, southerly flow
will bring up a warm and very humid airmass into the region as it
taps into that tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm
Debbie. We should have enough broken clouds to allow for
temperatures to get rather uncomfortable with highs climbing into
the upper 80s to around 90 before clouds and storms increase in the
afternoon and halt daytime heating. With CAPE values will be up
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will increase
to 25 to 35 kt, storms that form during the afternoon have the best
chance to become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the greatest
threat. SPC has our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather
potential. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms,
leading to a localized flash flooding risk.
Overview...Flash flooding risk from heavy rainfall Tuesday afternoon
through overnight Tuesday as an approaching cold front clashes with
tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm Debbie. This
predecessor rain event (PRE) has warranted a Flood Watch for much of
the forecast area surrounding the I-95 corridor and points north and
west.
For the rest of today...A few isolated showers and thunderstorms
may form along the seabreeze this afternoon as hot and humid
conditions persist. Any showers or storms should be confined to
mainly south Jersey and the Delmarva, but a rogue showers cannot
be ruled out for the Philly Metro area and areas adjacent to
the Delaware River. Overnight, mostly quiet rain- wise but still
rather muggy with temperatures only cooling to the low/mid 70s
and dew points within that range.
For Tuesday...We will start out mostly dry Tuesday morning before
the heavy rain arrives. As a cold front approaches, southerly flow
will bring up a warm and very humid airmass into the region as it
taps into that tropical moisture associated with Tropical Storm
Debbie. We should have enough broken clouds to allow for
temperatures to get rather uncomfortable with highs climbing into
the upper 80s to around 90 before clouds and storms increase in the
afternoon and halt daytime heating. With CAPE values will be up
around 1500 to 2000 J/kg and 0-6 km Bulk Shear values will increase
to 25 to 35 kt, storms that form during the afternoon have the best
chance to become severe, with damaging wind gusts being the greatest
threat. SPC has our area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather
potential. Heavy downpours will be possible with these storms,
leading to a localized flash flooding risk.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The first part of the long term, thru Saturday, will mostly be
determined by the future motions of (whatever is left of) tropical
system Debby. The remnants lift this way from the Southeast states
late this week but there remains plenty of uncertainty with the
track, so we`ll bring the broad brush out and stick mostly with the
NBM probs/temps. Accordingly, we`ll continue with high chance and
likely pops for most areas Thu night into Sat. Flooding rains are
possible if the center of the low passes close to the region. The
setup for excessive rains looks favorable, but details will become
clear as we heads closer to the midweek period. Temperatures will be
below normal much of the time but humidity levels will be high.
Later this weekend and Monday, a drying period is foreseen with low
pops (slight chc Sunday) and temperatures a little below normal
The first part of the long term, thru Saturday, will mostly be
determined by the future motions of (whatever is left of) tropical
system Debby. The remnants lift this way from the Southeast states
late this week but there remains plenty of uncertainty with the
track, so we`ll bring the broad brush out and stick mostly with the
NBM probs/temps. Accordingly, we`ll continue with high chance and
likely pops for most areas Thu night into Sat. Flooding rains are
possible if the center of the low passes close to the region. The
setup for excessive rains looks favorable, but details will become
clear as we heads closer to the midweek period. Temperatures will be
below normal much of the time but humidity levels will be high.
The first part of the long term, thru Saturday, will mostly be
determined by the future motions of (whatever is left of) tropical
system Debby. The remnants lift this way from the Southeast states
late this week but there remains plenty of uncertainty with the
track, so we`ll bring the broad brush out and stick mostly with the
NBM probs/temps. Accordingly, we`ll continue with high chance and
likely pops for most areas Thu night into Sat. Flooding rains are
possible if the center of the low passes close to the region. The
setup for excessive rains looks favorable, but details will become
clear as we heads closer to the midweek period. Temperatures will be
below normal much of the time but humidity levels will be high.
Later this weekend and Monday, a drying period is foreseen with low
pops (slight chc Sunday) and temperatures a little below normal
The first part of the long term, thru Saturday, will mostly be
determined by the future motions of (whatever is left of) tropical
system Debby. The remnants lift this way from the Southeast states
late this week but there remains plenty of uncertainty with the
track, so we`ll bring the broad brush out and stick mostly with the
NBM probs/temps. Accordingly, we`ll continue with high chance and
likely pops for most areas Thu night into Sat. Flooding rains are
possible if the center of the low passes close to the region. The
setup for excessive rains looks favorable, but details will become
clear as we heads closer to the midweek period. Temperatures will be
below normal much of the time but humidity levels will be high.
models are all over the place with respect to rainfall. Some models have cut back totals from Debbie moving most of her waste west of us with the main show being the PRE event late this afternoon and overnight. Some models still have a band of 6 inches or more for parts of NJ through the weekend.
As long at it's spread out over days and doesn't all fall within a couple of hours like Ida and we should be okay. Of course, flood prone areas will have it tough either way.
Increasing likelihood for a major dump this evening. Might even become the main event with the tropical remnants tsking a more westward track. Where training sets up in central/northern NJ we could see some spots receiving 5-7” in only a few hours.
hit 94 today with a peak heat index of 106....would have been a 10 day heatwave if not for Sundays failure.
picked up about a quarter inch of rain during a quick pop up thundershower
picked up about a quarter inch of rain during a quick pop up thundershower
I’m in upstate New York, according to the Doppler radar and nj.com, we’re supposed to get pummeled with storms tonight, correct?
Dew point in Bergen County is 85. Not sure I've ever experienced that before. Once is too many times. Temp never got past 89.so far. The heavy rain that was supposed to start around now has been revised to 6:30-7:30. I'm starting to wonder about that.
looks like that is matching up with Knightshifts post above with that stationary front further south than modeled
Yeah, hit mid-90's here: was outside around 1:30-2, very little wind, just uncomfortable. This was after they were forecasting a high of 82° for today.
Some big freakin' storms out there already (severe t-storm warnings up for many folks, including much of CNJ and NENJ/NYC and more to come this evening and overnight, with some severe storms being likely, including gusty winds (which could bring down trees/power lines), hail and torrential rain (2-3" will be common, but 5" or more could occur in some locales where storms train), leading to areas of flash flooding.
Had dinner reservations for tonight in Highlands & just got a call cancelling as town is flooded & police have shut down Bay Ave. due to flooding from rain
some areas will get pounded, others let off the hooki
please watch the radar before going out especially on the major highways like the parkway and turnpike
please watch the radar before going out especially on the major highways like the parkway and turnpike
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Drove home from work from Hopewell to Flemington area and that was not fun one bit. Some of the worst I've driven through.
Latest Debby remnants track has been shifted NW of our area, meaning rainfall amounts would be significant, but likely not torrential/flooding levels on Thurs-Sat. Can live with another 1-2" whereas 3-5" on top of the 3-5" many will get today and tomorrow would mean some likely significant flooding. Hoping this track verifies.
The heaviest rains will be to the west of it correct? So this is good news if so. Crazy how slow it’s moving down south then speeds up from Friday onLatest Debby remnants track has been shifted NW of our area, meaning rainfall amounts would be significant, but likely not torrential/flooding levels on Thurs-Sat. Can live with another 1-2" whereas 3-5" on top of the 3-5" many will get today and tomorrow would mean some likely significant flooding. Hoping this track verifies.
My wife was driving through Pennington during the storm. She said pretty much every road was flooded except for one of the main ones.
updated..most has moved to the north
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It did To Bergen County. This is one time I'd have preferred never to late.
