It’ll be a circus. No way it dies quickly. Big payday for lawyers and not too mention all the press.
OT: Bitcoin, Altcoins, NFT's & All Things Crypto
- Thread starter bob-loblaw
- Start date
Nah, I’m not new to crypto. I’ve actually read the BTC P2P ECS white paper, project documents for Solana, etc. = something I’ve been harping on lately - which is more than most crypto investors have done. And from the inception of this thread I’ve said blockchain is real but the token/coin structure is not. I’ve also said I like NFTs for real use cases like proving ownership of virtual assets in the metaverse, as opposed to worthless hyped garbage like BAYC. I’m always looking to make a few bucks but I tie my investments to sound research. In the long run, my research could be wrong which is why everyone needs to do their own. Who knows - may be BTC rebounds to $50K next week. But there isn’t a shred of evidence right now that indicates it will.
Nobody said he couldn’t afford legal fees. But if the lawsuit makes it past summary judgement and goes to trial he could have exposure in the billions. It’s a $258B lawsuit which seems ridiculous. However, even having to pay a fraction of that could take a bite out of Elon’s net worth especially if the Twitter acquisition gets hairier.
No doubt NFTs will go mainstream but not how most people think. Check out what the NFT company Novel is doing and how they partnered with Shopify. Far cry from BAYC nonsense.
Preaching to the choir. Pretty sure no one here owns a BAYC. I own the Solana version of it, but I know what I’m holding, it can moon or crash at any time. Check out @genesysgo, real life utility and holding through the crash because of it
I’m still nibbling at BTC and ETH. My few altcoins are not large investments and I like the protocols they describe. I don’t know where the bottom is but I think we are close. I haven’t added any Grayscale, still own GBTC. Frankly wish I’d sold it earlier just to have some more gunpowder for future investments in equities. I agree with DCA but I don’t agree with your continuous buying in this market , with all due respect. Yes, long term the market will be profitable but you can’t fight the market when the bear is ransacking it. I’d wait for clear signs that the market is bouncing back and the current economic situation isn’t convincing at this point in time
Spoken like someone who missed out on BTC and BAYC. Call them jokes all you want, but they both were once in a lifetime investments.
You could say the same thing about GME but I don’t lose sleep over it. In the end, very few folks will walk away from the BTC craps table with life-changing profits. If everyone thought it was going to the moon from the beginning, people wouldn’t have used it to buy pizza ten years ago and some guy wouldn’t be spending his life in a landfill trying to find a thumb drive he threw out. If someone can tell me a use current case for BTC or BAYC NFT then I’m all ears. What purpose does a BAYC NFT serve? Unless the artist died or nobody can ever create a digital image like it again, it will never hold its value. To me, NFTs make sense when tied to the metaverse. Or, when tied to proof of ownership of a physical asset perhaps as a marketing tool. But I can’t say I have that much more insight than people predicting BTC to $1M in a few years.
I am happy and comfortable with DCA'ing for equities. It paid off big for me in 2008/2009, 2018, and again in 2020. I am a student of Peter Lynch.....and as he says:
"Everyone has the brain power to make money in stocks. Not everyone has the stomach"
I don't know where the bottom will be. No idea when the catalyst will hit to flip the market. All I know is I am buying at tremendous discounts and we will be back at ATHs eventually. I'm going hard into leverage ETFs to get positioned to maximize the rebound.
As for crypto, I am more following your guidance and waiting to see what happens. I'm not sure where the crypto market is going and more importantly.....why? Is something systemic happening or it is just getting caught up with the stock market dump (and being impacted along with other risk assets).
I think it's more time horizon, then it is the size of purchase. 3% if you're buying here, and willing to wait however long for it to get running again is not a big deal, but it's still 3% whether you are buying $1K's worth or $100K. Then another 3% when you sell.
6%(3% in 3% out) if you're looking to play a bounce off of resistance for a trade is bunk.
I made a pretty good trade a couple weeks ago buying back in at 28K and selling at 31K. I walked away with a 3% gain. I then bought back in at 28K and sold at 26K or something as support game out. End of the day I lost 10%. Coinbase sucks for trading purposes.
Buy and hold? I can do that with GBTC or any derivative like a miner with no commissions on Etrade.
BAYC is now both a global brand and a valuable piece of art. Please stop the ignorance.
I think next time I look to buy and hold it will be in GBTC.
Might play the miners for a trade though. More beta. Saw BTBT was up 16% on Friday. If that dumps on Monday (though BTC has bounced off of $17.5 ish and back to $19.4 so who knows) I might buy some there.
I'm thinking if BTC is to breakdown below that 2018 high, it won't happen right away. $28K was support that held like 3 different times over the last 1.5 years, and then for a solid month as downward pressure mounted before finally breaking. So likewise, I think it could bounce between $17.5 and $20K for a bit.
Maybe I'll just buy some call options.
Is it a company?
Would be interesting if they built off their NFT notoriety to build a real world, money making company.
I'm hoping ETHE drops below $6 tomorrow at the opening. I may pick up a little bit, but I'm still in a watchful waiting mode with crypto. This is my first rodeo with one of these winters/crashes. Got a lot to learn.
Tl/dr- $140million in net revenue in 2021. They just raised money at a $4billion valuation.
Yuga Labs: The NFT Company Taking Over the Metaverse
Yuga Labs has emerged as one of the most dominant and financially heavy-hitting players in the NFT space.
nftnow.com
Steve Weiss made an interesting analogy recently.
Would you rather go to a restaurant too early, and not eat for weeks while paying for parking(I added this last part), or would you rather wait, even if that means you miss the appetizer.
Is that too many "would you rathers"?
Says they are expected $440 mil in rev's in 2022. Will be interesting if that actually happens in light of the recent blowout in crypto.Tl/dr- $140million in net revenue in 2021. They just raised money at a $4billion valuation.
Yuga Labs: The NFT Company Taking Over the Metaverse
Yuga Labs has emerged as one of the most dominant and financially heavy-hitting players in the NFT space.
But these metaverse lands? Can I get there using an occulous?
Not exactly sure how the yuga project works. Some metaverse demos I’ve seen are oculus based, some are browser based. Portals is the one I’m most familiar with an it’s all browser based. Pretty fascinating project…
On the one hand I thought playing games on the Oculus was really cool and the idea of going around different worlds seemed exactly what it was made for.
On the other hand my gf looks at me like I'm a loser when I even think about playing VR.
Consider this question an IQ test = in ten years do you really think anyone will give a rats ass about BAYC?
Sounds like every mother who threw away useless baseball cards in the 50s-60s, basketball cards in the 80s and Pokémon cards in the 90’s. We get it, your risk tolerance doesn’t allow for this type of investing today, totally understandable. Your inability to give opinions without insults continues to amaze me.
You can say that about any new company. It all depends how they continue to grow. Will they crank out games, YouTube series, movies, clothing?
Yeah it sounds exactly the same, especially when baseball cards in the 50s-60s were dominated by a few global brands, with nationwide distribution, MLB licensing deals, paper mills, card dealer networks, etc. I think the better analogy is every mother who threw away their kid’s doodles and never gave two craps because they were worthless to anyone other than perhaps them for sentimental reasons. Anybody can create and sell a digital doodle these days with zero barrier to entry and endless supply. BTW, lighten up, nobody is throwing insults and I’m not condemning anyone for buying this stuff. I’m just waiting for the thesis on why BAYC would be worth a fraction of today’s value in ten years. Rarity? Nostalgia? Supply/Demand? What’s the reason?
No one was paying tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars for doodles. Bad comparison and you know it. Baseballs cards weren’t a global brand when the first launched, again an obvious statement. CryptoPunks or BAYC can be today what Topps was in 1952. For anything to have value, people need to agree on a price. People are clearly agreeing on the price of these blue chip NFTs. Now as others have mentioned, it’s up to the brands to provide some type of value for that price to hold. No one needs to convince you for them to be successful. I’d be more then happy to explain rarity, utility vs brand projects, etc but I don’t think it will change your mind and will only further lower my IQ on your scale
It ain’t hard. Crypto run was speculation, profit chasing and people using extra cash on higher risk.
market tanks with peoples real money and they bail on speculation.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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The “real estate market is a bubble” guy is a crypto bull LOL. Amazing. Least surprising thing ever
Right on queue. This announcement has increased the value of a Cryptopunk by about $15-20k
Christie’s Web3 Expert Leaves Auction House to Run CryptoPunks for Yuga Labs
Noah Davis, a key factor in the storied auction house’s crypto embrace, was involved in Beeple’s $69 million NFT sale in March 2021.
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anon_0k9zlfz6lz9oy
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You also went on and on about the value of financial advisors yet you literally gamble in crypto for a living lol
I said the real estate market will likely pull back a little and financial advisors provide more value than real estate agents. Not that much to remember dude.
The demand is there.
It wont be 5k. Macro environment is still shit and will be, but those risk averse are going to, (and have been) pulling their $$ off of riskier assets like bitcoin. This has been happening as evidenced by the onchain data showing the new hands selling. I think the btc bottom will hit before the market because of this. And look at what we've seen the last month. Luna>>Celsius>>> 3AC Its been a warzone. And there's potential for more to fall. There's going to be a lot of price action between 18 - 25k in the near term.
You're partially right. A lot of my bullishness stems from the dollar; the amount we've printed the last 3 years and the fact that we have to essentially declare a war or proxy war vs any country who is a threat to the dollar. I am fearful of the long-term viability of the dollar.
In theory gold makes sense to hedge, but I wouldnt do so without physically holding gold. And if history is any indicator, gold will be taken again from citizens. Not to mention, they can just keep finding more gold; just like they did recently in, I believe, Uganda. And in the last decade it's traded down and now sideways/ slightly up. Not to get all conspiracy theory-ish, but the outcomes of the last three to five years have challenged my assumptions of pretty much everything.
I wont even pretend that I am in the same league you are in with your overall knowledge of the market. I have a good gauge for tech trends. If I had half a brain, I would have invest in Amazon when I was one of their first afilliates in the early 00's, or Apple when I got my first iPod and realized I no longer had to carry around cd's of mp3s with a 2 second pause between each song played, or Google the second I used a beta of Gmail, or NEtflix and so on. Reality was that I was too naïve to invest when I should have. I view btc in the same light as those other innovations.
It's not going anywhere and it is going to disrupt industries. And honestly, it's probably the reason why Elon is trying to acquire Twitter. Barely being discussed is how he is essentially acquiring a payment network with 300mm users, all easily enabled using the bitcoin network.
And yes, I've self examined countless times. Watching an asset fall 50%+ 3 times in two years will cause a serious gut check. Each time, my resolve grows stronger.
Consider this thought experiment. The ability to trade any stocks, bones, currencies, commodities ceases for an indeterminate period of time. BTC and all of the crypto world, too. How would this impact your holdings, or thoughts on what your crypto holdings are worth? Certainly, there would be widespread concern and possible panic. But let’s go one by one.
Stocks. The businesses will continue to operate, invest in themselves, grow earnings and cash flow and some pay dividends. You wouldn’t have a market price for your interest, but you could determine a range of what it’s worth. And you could certainly track the direction of value, based on business performance.
Bond issuers would continue to pay interest and redeem at or before maturity,
a currency such as the dollar would retain its usefulness as a medium of exchange, even if the lack of a trading market made it more difficult to decide what’s its worth relative to other currencies. You could still pay for goods and services in dollars.
commodities would still need to be used in various types of industrial production.
which leaves crypto. To date, there aren’t any use cases that I’m aware of, how would you value it? What’s it worth if no liquid market exists to trade it?
Stocks. The businesses will continue to operate, invest in themselves, grow earnings and cash flow and some pay dividends. You wouldn’t have a market price for your interest, but you could determine a range of what it’s worth. And you could certainly track the direction of value, based on business performance.
Bond issuers would continue to pay interest and redeem at or before maturity,
a currency such as the dollar would retain its usefulness as a medium of exchange, even if the lack of a trading market made it more difficult to decide what’s its worth relative to other currencies. You could still pay for goods and services in dollars.
commodities would still need to be used in various types of industrial production.
which leaves crypto. To date, there aren’t any use cases that I’m aware of, how would you value it? What’s it worth if no liquid market exists to trade it?
Gold has the advantage of being money for most of human history, of course, and the fact that new gold is mined isn’t really an issue as the rate of growth in reserves has trailed growth in the global economy. It’s not. Bad thing to have a little more money added to the system over time as the system grows.
And, my question wasn’t so much whether you did a gut check but more how you did it. To return to my prior example, the market for the bond I held just kept dropping like a rock. I couldn’t understand why, and couldn’t find any good explanation that refuted my thesis. I analyzed the business, senstized how bad performance would get and not even draconian a scenarios led to a bankruptcy.
is there some way to do something similar for crypto, or is it a belief that it will work out? That’s what I’m asking.
From Pomp to piggyback on your post. Lot of redundant info but the last half is quite interesting regarding institutions:
Today is a bank holiday in the United States. This means we are in the middle of a three-day weekend, but the bitcoin and crypto market trades 24/7/365. The legacy financial system does not. This creates a mismatch in hours of operations.
Normally, the mismatch doesn’t mean much. Maybe you see slightly higher volatility during the weekend hours, but it isn’t anything concerning. The analysis changes though when bitcoin’s price is falling and liquidations are happening across the market. Investors are unable to get more fiat currencies into their crypto accounts, so they are unable to buy more of their desired asset.
Without this buy pressure in the market, combined with the liquidations wiping out built up leverage, the bitcoin price can fall rapidly. That is exactly what we saw over the weekend. Bitcoin traded below $18,000 and forced more selling than we had ever seen before. According to Shaurya Malwa at Coindesk:
Not a good situation.
This begs the question of whether institutions are caught up in the cascade of liquidations and selling? LMAX, the leading institution-only crypto exchange, reported this morning that they have seen significant increases in volumes from their clients:
This doesn’t account for the weekend volatility, but my expectation would be an even bigger increase in volumes with the bitcoin price dropping so severely over the weekend.
But the spot bitcoin market isn’t the only thing to pay attention to. Large financial organizations and asset managers are going to start using derivative products much more. As I was talking to the LMAX team, which I have been working with for awhile now, they shared something interesting:
It remains to be seen how a product like this will impact institutional interest, but depressed prices of these assets, coupled with new derivative products offered by well-respected platforms like LMAX, could lead to more transaction volume and investment interest.
My big question to the teams working on this was “does this really make that big of a difference?” They responded with two specific improvements that are worth paying attention to:
This should be something to keep an eye on.
To conclude, this weekend was a great example of the complexity that lies at the intersection of the new and old systems. Retail and institutions. Everyone trying to figure out what the price of a decentralized, digital currency should be in a new macro environment. Without a crystal ball, none of us know what will happen in the future.
My only advice is to continue to hold if this is a long term asset for you. I tried to get cute and increase my BTC position by quasi day trading / market timing back in 2018/19 and ended up losing almost a full Bitcoin by missing the 2020 upswing. Set it and forget it, and buy when there is blood in the streets.
I can't tell if this is sarcasm. Some may call it art but a set of 10,000 computer generated images alternating cookie cutter features is pretty low end art. After watching his daughter make some easy money creating a set, a friend has proposed an NFT collection and offering as a high school project and fundraiser.
What are you gonna tell us next, that abstract and stencil art that sells for millions isn’t real art and your friend is gonna make millions flinging paint on canvas?
Maybe you’re the sarcastic one?
My buddy just recently bought a zoo in the Midwest. He paid way less for real living primates than one BAYC. There is zero barrier to BAYC entry. Not only that, you don’t think the Mutant Ape Yacht Club is just the tip of the iceberg? The market will be flooded. And you don’t think that people using the BAYC for their social media profiles will get “bored” and move on eventually? NFTs that are not tied to something physical or real benefits will disappear in short time. For instance, if I bought a Porsche and got a special NFT for my individual car I think it would be awesome. Would likely enhance the value of my car. But would I want a digital image of a Porsche to, ummm, look at on my computer or post on social media…? Nope!
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