I made the gold example as a comparison in scarcity. There is no set amount of gold. btc is a hard coded cap that cannot be manipulated or "discovered"Gold has the advantage of being money for most of human history, of course, and the fact that new gold is mined isn’t really an issue as the rate of growth in reserves has trailed growth in the global economy. It’s not. Bad thing to have a little more money added to the system over time as the system grows.
And, my question wasn’t so much whether you did a gut check but more how you did it. To return to my prior example, the market for the bond I held just kept dropping like a rock. I couldn’t understand why, and couldn’t find any good explanation that refuted my thesis. I analyzed the business, senstized how bad performance would get and not even draconian a scenarios led to a bankruptcy.
is there some way to do something similar for crypto, or is it a belief that it will work out? That’s what I’m asking.
The gut check was done, well... using my gut. Bitcoin has multiple on chain tools you can use to form an opinion. I highly recommend you follow Glassnode if you are interested in learning more. These are not finite prediction tools. There essentially tools to show you what people who hold btc are doing; what their behavior is, are they selling, buying. What are long term hodlers doing? Are coins being moved off exchanges and into cold storage? What are whales accumulating? Long and short of it, user activity gives you a great blueprint to what could be leading indicators price-wise.
But to me, I still follow my gut. We're heading more towards a cashless society. And adoption from youth into crypto is high. The demand for lightning payments will grow, as retailers see the cost savings of using btc as a payment rail network. So to answer, I've read nothing that has made me waver in my opinion that btc is the future.
The last few mos have been painful, but it was needed to flush stupidity out of the system. Unfort., it's not the end. There will be more casualties. Greed and stupidity drove the price to where it is., and they'll probably drive it lower. But the resolve remains the same.