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OT: Electric vehicles

EV adoption has hit a wall. Must people who like EVs have one or two. Now the hard part, they have to convince the ICE drivers to convert. It’s shocking it hit the wall already because EVs is still such a small percentage of the overall market.
 
EV adoption has hit a wall. Must people who like EVs have one or two. Now the hard part, they have to convince the ICE drivers to convert. It’s shocking it hit the wall already because EVs is still such a small percentage of the overall market.
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
 
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
Not sure what you mean. Seems like we are saying the same except for somatics.
 
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
Your last sentence is the exact reason you won't get many EV owners to say anything bad about them. Without sales the charging stations will be slowed to the point many have already said, there isn't nearly enough of them. The government is pushing this 10 years too soon and using tax dollars to supplement sales is just another squeeze on some people who may never be able to afford them.
 
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EV adoption has hit a wall. Must people who like EVs have one or two. Now the hard part, they have to convince the ICE drivers to convert. It’s shocking it hit the wall already because EVs is still such a small percentage of the overall market.
People don't want to be told what to buy and when to buy them. The sales pitch from current owners is nauseating.
 
I got picked up at EWR in a Cadillac Lyriq last night. Very good looking car with high end interior. I ask the guy how he likes it and he said “you want to buy it”? LOL. Winter range and charging time was killing him. I told him it gets better in the summer.
 
Not sure what you mean. Seems like we are saying the same except for somatics.
Perhaps we are saying the same thing based on earlier posts by you and I. But not so much in the post to which I responded.

But I suspect that yes, we are on the same page in most respects about EVs. We're moderates on the issue.
 
Your last sentence is the exact reason you won't get many EV owners to say anything bad about them. Without sales the charging stations will be slowed to the point many have already said, there isn't nearly enough of them. The government is pushing this 10 years too soon and using tax dollars to supplement sales is just another squeeze on some people who may never be able to afford them.

EV owners here all rave about charging at home and seem to consider charging network secondary.

If they found the network infrastructure insufficient, why the hell would they rave about their EV so much as just go back to ICE?
 
Your last sentence is the exact reason you won't get many EV owners to say anything bad about them. Without sales the charging stations will be slowed to the point many have already said, there isn't nearly enough of them. The government is pushing this 10 years too soon and using tax dollars to supplement sales is just another squeeze on some people who may never be able to afford them.

People don't want to be told what to buy and when to buy them. The sales pitch from current owners is nauseating.

People should get over themselves. Nobody is insisting that anybody buy an EV. The government is encouraging it in various ways because change of this nature will take time and if they don't get the ball rolling, it won't happen for a very long time.

The mandates are not aimed at people; they're aimed at automakers to provide support for making huge investments they'd otherwise be very reluctant to make. The mandates incentivize automakers.

I think it extremely likely that all state governments (perhaps excepting CA's) fully expect the mandate dates to slip. I forget the number, but I think it's only 13 out of 50 states anyway. Even if mandates don't slip, we can exercise our right to move about freely and move to a state that has no mandate.

One would have to be the wussiest of wusses to feel pressured to buy an EV right now. I feel zero pressure and will buy an EV when I'm ready; not before.

Oh, and I have seen plenty of EV owners discuss the cons of owning their EV, as well as the pros.
 
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People should get over themselves. Nobody is insisting that anybody buy an EV. The government is encouraging it in various ways because change of this nature will take time and if they don't get the ball rolling, it won't happen for a very long time.

The mandates are not aimed at people; they're aimed at automakers to provide support for making huge investments they'd otherwise be very reluctant to make. The mandates incentivize automakers.

I think it extremely likely that all state governments (perhaps excepting CA's) fully expect the mandate dates to slip. I forget the number, but I think it's only 13 out of 50 states anyway. Even if mandates don't slip, we can exercise our right to move about freely and move to a state that has no mandate.

One would have to be the wussiest of wusses to feel pressured to buy an EV right now. I feel zero pressure and will buy an EV when I'm ready; not before.

Oh, and I have seen plenty of EV owners discuss the cons of owning their EV, as well as the pros.
Except Belly.
 
Except Belly.
Choice-supportive bias gone wild? 🙂

My new Cayenne S is in its 5th consecutive week at the shop, waiting on more parts to arrive from Germany. Not the sort of new car experience that lends one to form a choice-supportive bias. 😀
 
EV owners here all rave about charging at home and seem to consider charging network secondary.

If they found the network infrastructure insufficient, why the hell would they rave about their EV so much as just go back to ICE?
Because they NEED people to buy them to encourage more charging stations to be built. Saying charging stations are secondary is pure BS unless they never plan to travel far. I'll buy one when the price drops and the range doubles and I don't have to wait in line to charge.
 
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LOL.

Somehow you think this strengthens your point.
And the population in Corolla is over 100K in the warm weather months. How will EVs ever be popular if there is no infrastructure there to support that. Also, just because Corolla has 500-1500 permanent residents doesn't mean that is all the people in the area. Plus they get a lot of weekenders even in the off months.
 
It's the pool that hurts value, at least from an appraisal standpoint. 😃

The solar panels probably help some.
You add a pool,not with an eye on property value, but personal enjoyment

I added a pool do not have any regrets

Not everything we do has to be 100%
sensible
 
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EV adoption has hit a wall. Must people who like EVs have one or two. Now the hard part, they have to convince the ICE drivers to convert. It’s shocking it hit the wall already because EVs is still such a small percentage of the overall market.
LOL... Hit a wall? Do you ever look at data?
Over the past 5 years or so, we seen repeated corrections in EV forecasts from traditional "analysts" because growth is always faster than expected.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/09/ev-sales-growing-faster-than-expected/
 
You add a pool,not with an eye on property value, but personal enjoyment

I added a pool do not have any regrets

Not everything we do has to be 100%
sensible
I'm not judging it. Just pointing it out in what I hope was a humorous way.



😃
 
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LOL... Hit a wall? Do you ever look at data?
Over the past 5 years or so, we seen repeated corrections in EV forecasts from traditional "analysts" because growth is always faster than expected.

https://cleantechnica.com/2023/12/09/ev-sales-growing-faster-than-expected/
I think, at least for most of us, the focus in on the US and not so much what the rest of the world is doing.

Also, when people say stuff like "faster than expected" or "slower than expected", it begs the question: what drove those incorrect expectations?

I can always form the expectation that there will be one additional post in this RU FB sub-forum today. At the end of the day, posts will greatly exceed my expectations. But that doesn't really say a whole lot about posts so much as highlight the invalidity of the expectation.
 
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
The interesting thing for our country will be the conversion from diesel run to EV powered in the transportation industry. Recent calculations show 5.6 million tractor trailers of which 2 million are active . That ‘ll be an easy fix… the battery graveyards will be somewhere in the Sonoran desert
 
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
The interesting thing for our country will be the conversion from diesel run to EV powered in the transportation industry. Recent calculations show 5.6 million tractor trailers of which 2 million are active . That ‘ll be
I'm not sure I agree it's hit a wall so much as the pace of adoption is slowing as the early adopters already have their cars.

Although adoption will proceed without it for awhile, maintaining a reasonable pace of adoption into the future is likely to require a larger effort/investment in public charging infrastructure than is currently underway. Make it so everybody in the US is near-certain to find an instantly available public charger wherever they happen to be, and the pace of adoption will likely increase.

I can't think of any factor that is more critical (at the moment).

A big increase in the cost of gas at the pump could stimulate more rapid adoption. But the major oil producers out there know this so they are likely to be more cautious about cutting supply to inflate prices, intentionally at least.

Conversely, continue with the slow pace of infrastructure development and it could result in a decade-long (or more) stalling of adoption as an electorate who dislike being inconvenienced in any way pushes back against mandates.
Isn’t this really the goal of those now in Washington DC. ? Eliminate fossil fuel and implement your agenda. Force the future generations to live under the thumb of ” it’s our way or the highway”. Control of your people is when you know you have succeeded.
 
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The interesting thing for our country will be the conversion from diesel run to EV powered in the transportation industry. Recent calculations show 5.6 million tractor trailers of which 2 million are active . That ‘ll be an easy fix… the battery graveyards will be somewhere in the Sonoran desert
Don't worry, there's an EV for that.



 
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Give them time and they’ll one day get there. If there is money to be made someday you just may have a legitimate business model in place.
 
How the hell is this saving the planet, please explain it to us less informed, thank you in advance. The power required for the megacharger to fill a Tesla truck battery in just 30 minutes is 1,600 kilowatts. That's the equivalent of providing power for 3,000 to 4,000 “average” houses.
 
How the hell is this saving the planet, please explain it to us less informed, thank you in advance. The power required for the megacharger to fill a Tesla truck battery in just 30 minutes is 1,600 kilowatts. That's the equivalent of providing power for 3,000 to 4,000 “average” houses.
Fossil fuels are a finite resource. At some point, humanity must transition to sustainable energy or civilization will collapse. We have the technology available today to begin this transition. Kicking the can down the road for future generations to worry about is irresponsible and lazy.
 
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Fossil fuels are a finite resource. At some point, humanity must transition to sustainable energy or civilization will collapse. We have the technology available today to begin this transition. Kicking the can down the road for future generations to worry about is irresponsible and lazy.

I tend to agree but if what is said above is true about the amount of power needed to run superchargers for this truck, that tells me these things aren't ready for prime time and should spend more time in the design and testing phase.

Are these things for sale or is Pepsi kind of being a guinea pig here for these?
 
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I tend to agree but if what is said above is true about the amount of power needed to run superchargers for this truck, that tells me these things aren't ready for prime time and should spend more time in the design and testing phase.

Are these things for sale or is Pepsi kind of being a guinea pig here for these?
Current Tesla Semis are being hand built (very low volume) and Pepsi and Tesla are the only customers. So yes, these trucks are the guinea pigs. Tesla just broke ground last week on a dedicated production line at Giga Nevada. Probably 2025 for volume production to begin.
 
I think, at least for most of us, the focus in on the US and not so much what the rest of the world is doing.

Also, when people say stuff like "faster than expected" or "slower than expected", it begs the question: what drove those incorrect expectations?

I can always form the expectation that there will be one additional post in this RU FB sub-forum today. At the end of the day, posts will greatly exceed my expectations. But that doesn't really say a whole lot about posts so much as highlight the invalidity of the expectation.
The US should be a beacon of sustainable energy technology and energy independence for the rest of the world to follow. Sadly, it's going to be China. While China is still generating a majority of their electricity from fossil fuels, they are going warp speed on sustainable energy.
 
Maybe…can’t recall exactly what I said but at the same time I think you said it would be on the road in 2021. I’m still not convinced CT hit the production line for any reason other than Elon couldn’t scrap or delay the launch any longer without risking credibility. Wouldn’t surprise me if it’s discontinued or morphs into a smaller SUV like the new Macan.
Well, there was a tiny event called a global pandemic during that time period. It would be foolish to begin production at a time when supply chains were in disarray. Slower than expected ramp of 4680 cells also contributed to the delay.

I suggest learning a bit more about the technology in CT before you continue to bash it. Maybe wait until you see 1 in person, or are lucky enough to drive it. The consensus amongst those who've seen it IRL seems to be, "the more I see it, the more I like it". The consensus for those who've driven it is "Holy F@#k, it's amazing".
 
The EV industry has been grappling with a slowdown in demand for more than a year and the price cuts by Tesla will likely worsen the pressure on the startups and automakers such as Ford.

So is there a slowdown or not? Is Reuters anti-EV? Is Tesla’s aggressive price-cutting strategy resulting in slowed EV adoption because it’s forcing legacy automakers to reign in costly EV losses?

If you want an EV, but don’t want to buy a vehicle you know will have it’s resale value slashed by a price war started by Tesla, and if other automakers have reigned in EV production, then I guess you will be waiting around for an EV for awhile, or bagging it and getting another ICEV.

Meanwhile, Tesla, with Musk at the helm, is screwing with my happy stock market buzz. Time for a different leader at Tesla?
 
The US should be a beacon of sustainable energy technology and energy independence for the rest of the world to follow. Sadly, it's going to be China. While China is still generating a majority of their electricity from fossil fuels, they are going warp speed on sustainable energy.
I agree that China has seized the reins. I posted about the why/how that is last week. They will eventually beat the US over the head with it.

But China isn't doing it for environmental reasons, or because it's the right thing to do for the planet. They're doing it because (a) it doesn't negatively impact social stability in China, (b) it makes long-term geopolitical and economic sense for them, and (c) they have no political or cultural barriers to doing so.

BTW, while it sounds nice, I don't think arguments based on how the US should be a beacon of anything other than freedom sell very well these days. The only arguments that sell, in Congress at least, are economic or geopolitical. And that's equally true of both parties, despite the effort both sides make to paint things idealistically or ideologically.

In the US, everything is about either money or power or both. The US will continue to lose it's global leadership in all kinds of areas until we stop being so easily polarized politically and allow our government to form long term compromise on critical issues. Until then, everything one side does will be undone by the other.
 
How the hell is this saving the planet, please explain it to us less informed, thank you in advance. The power required for the megacharger to fill a Tesla truck battery in just 30 minutes is 1,600 kilowatts. That's the equivalent of providing power for 3,000 to 4,000 “average” houses.

The horror!

 
The US should be a beacon of sustainable energy technology and energy independence for the rest of the world to follow. Sadly, it's going to be China. While China is still generating a majority of their electricity from fossil fuels, they are going warp speed on sustainable energy.

China doesn't have the fossils fuels they need.
So they go with the alternative stuff and get US to pay for it while China gets BlackRock and others to choke US on DEI,

I was reading about TSMC trying to manufacture in US. There are so many regulations and increased costs that they can barley get anything going. US cant be a beacon of anything with armies of anti-business loons attacking businesses like monkeys on meth with hammers.

":It’s immensely challenging for America to replicate the ecosystem in Taiwan that supports chip manufacturing, from the expertise in constructing fabs to the companies that clean the gowns worn inside them. And America is a plodding bureaucracy where it’s harder and more expensive to get environmental approvals and building permits than it is in other countries. And a cautionary tale: T.S.M.C. built a fab in Washington State in the late 1990s, and for many years it was an expensive headache.

“It was just a series of ugly surprises,” Morris Chang, the founder of T.S.M.C., said on a podcast in 2022. Despite enormous effort and 25 years of experience, the costs of production at that plant are still 50 percent higher than in Taiwan, he added.

Perhaps because he’s 92 years old and retired, Chang is candid about the challenges of the American strategy.

“I think it will be a very expensive exercise in futility,” he said of the U.S. efforts...The U.S. will increase onshore manufacturing of semiconductors somewhat. But all of that will be very high cost increase, high unit cost. It will be noncompetitive in the world markets.”
'
 
Toni Sacconaghi has recommended HOLD or SELL action on TSLA for the past 5 years with an average negative return over that period. Maybe not the best person to explain what Tesla is/isn't.
and he has been spot on the last three years. TSLA was $293 per share in January 2021; and is now 34% lower ($193 per share) as of today. ….and peaked at $407 in November 2021. Although a great company that continues to grow, it was clearly not a buy at the overly high share price during most of the last three years.
 
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