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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Rolling back the tax cuts to our wealthiest and corporations is a certainty with a new administration. Yes. That's anticipated/expected and will come as no surprise. But there's a bigger threat to the market: over-extended borrowing by many companies, inflated valuations based on unrealistic projected revenue, COVID-19 lingering, unemployment, an extended recession, social unrest, etc. We're in for a slide. Question is... how far and for how long. At least two years, methinks. Perhaps longer. Some very smart guys are saying up to a decade.
Geez, did you sell your stocks, do you think staying in cash is the best bet now
 
Geez, did you sell your stocks, do you think staying in cash is the best bet now

Bought some discounted quality dividend-paying stocks with the big drop earlier this year and will hang onto those long-term. Also very recently shorted the S&P 500, expecting a slide there. Have some exposure in emerging markets equities via funds. Beyond that, gov bonds and cash. I tend toward an "all weather" portfolio approach these days
 
Truthfully, taxes have become very low. More evidence that taxes are too low is that the companies that reduced their tax burden spent the money on stock buy backs instead of pumping back into the economy. If taxes are going up then I would want the money to be spent wisely and not to wasted. That is why we need moderate liberals and conservatives in power. They can sort of be a check on each other but civil enough to work with each other.

Stock buybacks actually do pump money into the economy. The holders who sell the shares that are bought back now have cash to spend or invest. The money didn't disappear. Should dividends be banned and instead be paid to employees?

You take a big leap thinking the increased tax revenues will be spent wisely by government. There is huge waste and inefficiency there. Will they reduce the deficit or just find more ways to spend it? I'd assume the latter. Our corp tax rates needed to come down to what other countries are charging to stop the movement of companies to foreign domiciles. The higher rates had the impact of lowering revenues.
 
Why do you think I need to do research? I'm just stating what's coming. I'm no socialist. I blame Trump. He was such an utter failure and embarrassment that Biden and the Dems are completely embolden. Only hope for the economy is a new candidate. America is done being represented by a sad, whiney, clown.

So instead of whining about his hair color, rationally discuss where he has gone wrong or strayed from the platform that he ran to Win the election.

Don't start with HCQ or wearing a mask.
 
Stock buybacks actually do pump money into the economy. The holders who sell the shares that are bought back now have cash to spend or invest. The money didn't disappear. Should dividends be banned and instead be paid to employees?

You take a big leap thinking the increased tax revenues will be spent wisely by government. There is huge waste and inefficiency there. Will they reduce the deficit or just find more ways to spend it? I'd assume the latter. Our corp tax rates needed to come down to what other countries are charging to stop the movement of companies to foreign domiciles. The higher rates had the impact of lowering revenues.

Obumma/BIDEN participated in the largest rise of our overall dept load since FDR and financing WW 2. in the 8 years that they ruled, they effectively doubled the US debt totals.

Where in his 100 + page manifesto released this week do you see money going to reduce federal debt ? I see National No Cash Bail for ALL criminal acts. I see Federal Govt taking over for local planning boards.
 
Stock buybacks actually do pump money into the economy. The holders who sell the shares that are bought back now have cash to spend or invest. The money didn't disappear. Should dividends be banned and instead be paid to employees?

You take a big leap thinking the increased tax revenues will be spent wisely by government. There is huge waste and inefficiency there. Will they reduce the deficit or just find more ways to spend it? I'd assume the latter. Our corp tax rates needed to come down to what other countries are charging to stop the movement of companies to foreign domiciles. The higher rates had the impact of lowering revenues.

Let me say that after the 2017 legislation a better way to phrase it is "our corporate tax rates need to stay close to what other countries are charging to stop the movement of companies to foreign domiciles. Currently they might not be the lowest but they're definitely no longer the highest.
 
Didn't I read that somewhere in Defund Joe's Manifesto he's committed to abolishing the Stock Market ?

That can't be true ? or is it.
 
Back on stocks ....bought DOCU fastly ddog and zm about a week ago and am very happy I did.

Politics of the market...market like republicans not democrats. Bottom line trump doesn’t know crap Kushner is running the country and under Biden he will answer to Schumer and Pelosi...the last president to actually run the country was likely Reagan....maybe. All of Biden’s stuff is for the far left and lowly will only pass a couple of items on his list like Trump. Anything to far right or left always falls by the waist side and are just campaign “promises”

Great choices, but they've had big run ups, so consider stop orders to protect against a sharp downturn on these. I invested in both DOCU and DDOG about a month ago. I like both these companies.

As for the markets, they perform as well or better under Democrats. Agree with your analysis that some of Biden's proposals will not be enacted.
 
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Ahhh, yes. But the deceased's money lives on....

Presumably some of it went to the Koch Foundation, as during his lifetime he donated:

$185 million to MIT
$150 million to Memorial Sloan Kettering
$100 million to NY Presbyterian
$100 million to Lincoln Center
$65 million to the Met
$35 million to the Smithsonian
$26.5 million to MD Anderson
$26.2 million to HSS
$20 million to the Museum of Natural History
$20 million to Johns Hopkins
$10 million to Mt Sinai

Not quite the Great Satan the media often portrays him to be
 
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That's what I was alluding to in an earlier post. Presidents usually drift to the center no matter what their politics or promises are during campaigning. Obama and Trump were outliers.

Trump has been an exception. He seems to only want to appeal to his base. Seems really odd from my POV. He didn't gain the majority of votes and has to deal with a divided congress.
 
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I own some gun stocks

If Trump wins: I think the stocks will rise and fall based on fundamentals
If Biden wins: Kaching
If Biden wins and Trump disputes the result: Kaching Kaching
If Biden wins and Trump loses the dispute: Kaching Kaching Kaching
If Biden wins and Trump is walked out of the WH by soldiers: If we are not in a civil war, then Kaching, Kaching, Kaching, Kaching.
If we are in a civil war, everything goes into the pillow case.
 
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Didn't I read that somewhere in Defund Joe's Manifesto he's committed to abolishing the Stock Market ?

That can't be true ? or is it.
Yup, he's also commited to make all stock gains from the last 10 years to be turned over to the government to pay for reperations.
 
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Yup, he's also commited to make all stock gains from the last 10 years to be turned over to the government to pay for reperations.

If you and BigWill believe this and abolishing the stock market, no matter who wrote it or where you read this, I got a bridge to sell you.
 
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So instead of whining about his hair color, rationally discuss where he has gone wrong or strayed from the platform that he ran to Win the election.

Don't start with HCQ or wearing a mask.
Trump has been corrosive to every aspect of American life, American standing and American institutions. If you can't see that, if you can't see the importance of repairing that even if it means paying a bit more in taxes then you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote.
 
Presumably some of it went to the Koch Foundation, as during his lifetime he donated:

$185 million to MIT
$150 million to Memorial Sloan Kettering
$100 million to NY Presbyterian
$100 million to Lincoln Center
$65 million to the Met
$35 million to the Smithsonian
$26.5 million to MD Anderson
$26.2 million to HSS
$20 million to the Museum of Natural History
$20 million to Johns Hopkins
$10 million to Mt Sinai

Not quite the Great Satan the media often portrays him to be

You do know that some of those places are starting to take his name down, taking away board seats and returning his money right.
 
Trump has been corrosive to every aspect of American life, American standing and American institutions. If you can't see that, if you can't see the importance of repairing that even if it means paying a bit more in taxes then you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote.
^^^^^^^^^Whoa----a highly-politicized and insulting post.

Will #KryBabee3 report it to the Mods?????
 
Historically, the market is almost the same whichever party is in power (in fact slightly higher with Dems). Most presidential candidates move more to the center once elected (see Nixon and China for example). The problem IMO is Obama went further left and Trump reaction was further to the right. No matter your politics, the country needs a little more centrist in power.
I've been looking for an analysis of this that quite frankly discounts the Clintoon tech bubble years enhanced by Reagan's Cold War victory dividend of the Eastern European rebuild. Alone these two would be once-in-a-lifetime events. Amazing how they manifested under one Presidency. Further, to truly assess a "President's Economy" we should look at the party in power in Congress too.
 
Trump has been corrosive to every aspect of American life, American standing and American institutions. If you can't see that, if you can't see the importance of repairing that even if it means paying a bit more in taxes then you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote.

A bit? Wait until the House gets through with it.
 
Trump has been corrosive to every aspect of American life, American standing and American institutions. If you can't see that, if you can't see the importance of repairing that even if it means paying a bit more in taxes then you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote.
LOL. You realize your crazy TDS talk is prohibited on this Board amirite?
 
You do know that some of those places are starting to take his name down, taking away board seats and returning his money right.

That does not change his charitable intent. I wonder if PBS will return the donations from the Koch Foundation that have funded "The American Experience" series for years.

What's next? All the libraries in small Western Pennsylvania towns closing down and turning their deeds over the Carnegie descendants?
 
Great choices, but they've had big run ups, so consider stop orders to protect against a sharp downturn on these. I invested in both DOCU and DDOG about a month ago. I like both these companies.

As for the markets, they perform as well or better under Democrats. Agree with your analysis that some of Biden's proposals will not be enacted.
I thought the same with Shopify and it hasn’t stopped. I will be watching. A correction may be coming but hopefully will keep running.
 
Great choices, but they've had big run ups, so consider stop orders to protect against a sharp downturn on these. I invested in both DOCU and DDOG about a month ago. I like both these companies.

As for the markets, they perform as well or better under Democrats. Agree with your analysis that some of Biden's proposals will not be enacted.

I agree that much of the Biden-Sanders platform will not be enacted but with the Dems likely to regain the Senate, a terrifying amount of spending will pass. Economists promoting the crackpot Modern Monetary Theory will have a seat at the policy table.

Despite all the spending, deflationary forces are still very strong but at the some point out-of-control spending may unleash the worst inflation in American history. I have no idea when that "at some point" will come.

Even now with the Republicans controlling the Senate, the spending prognosis is bleak: https://www.aier.org/article/brace-yourself-for-bipartisan-spending-insanity/
 
Most of the individual taxes only affect people with income over $400k. The step up basis doesn’t affect most people because it’s a taxable account instead of a 401k.
There are many not ultra-rich people that have taxable accounts with sizable unrealized capital gains. If you’ve been in the workforce for a decade or more, chances are you have a taxable account that would be negatively impacted by this proposal.
 
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Getting back to the market. Any thoughts on the S&P 500 vs Russell 1000? From an index POV, which one do you prefer?
 
Trump has been corrosive to every aspect of American life, American standing and American institutions. If you can't see that, if you can't see the importance of repairing that even if it means paying a bit more in taxes then you probably shouldn't be allowed to vote.

So him lowering unemployment to historic lows for all minorities is bad for America ?
So him rising the Stock Market to historic highs is bad for America ?
So him putting tariffs onto China to slow the theft of our economy is bad for America ?
So reining in North Koreas aggressive posturing in the area is bad for American ?
So renegotiating horrendous trade deals all over the world is bad for America ?

Get the gist ?
 
You do know that some of those places are starting to take his name down, taking away board seats and returning his money right.
Show me one nonprofit that is returning his money? I tried to find one but could not. Most of them have already spent the money.
 
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Show me one nonprofit that is returning his money? I tried to find one but could not. Most of them have already spent the money.

Interesting. I just googled "David Koch gifts returned" and ended up with a bunch of articles about his gifts but none on returns. There was an LA Times op ed criticizing MIT's obit for only talking about his gifts with no criticism. Sounds like they weren't intending to give it back.

Got a link 109?
 
I thought the same with Shopify and it hasn’t stopped. I will be watching. A correction may be coming but hopefully will keep running.

On this topic, I was listening to a Motley Fool podcast where they were talking about Monster - the stock with the all-time best return (something like +70,000%). But along the way they had four times where the stock declined by more than 50%.
 
So him lowering unemployment to historic lows for all minorities is bad for America ?
So him rising the Stock Market to historic highs is bad for America ?
So him putting tariffs onto China to slow the theft of our economy is bad for America ?
So reining in North Koreas aggressive posturing in the area is bad for American ?
So renegotiating horrendous trade deals all over the world is bad for America ?

Get the gist ?

One would never know that from listening to the Trump campaign. Trump is running to preserve confederate monuments and call BLM a bunch of rabble commies. #sad
 
IF you bother to read about the founders and current leadership in the BLM INC you will find that they aren't rabble rousers.

They ARE avowed Communists and have the avowed desire to eliminate anything that made the place that we know as America.
 
You do know that some of those places are starting to take his name down, taking away board seats and returning his money right.
Show me one nonprofit that is returning his money? I tried to find one but could not. Most of them have already spent the money.
Interesting. I just googled "David Koch gifts returned" and ended up with a bunch of articles about his gifts but none on returns. There was an LA Times op ed criticizing MIT's obit for only talking about his gifts with no criticism. Sounds like they weren't intending to give it back.

Got a link 109?

Crickets.

I tried some other google key words today and still turned up nothing.
 
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So him lowering unemployment to historic lows for all minorities is bad for America ?
So him rising the Stock Market to historic highs is bad for America ?
So him putting tariffs onto China to slow the theft of our economy is bad for America ?
So reining in North Koreas aggressive posturing in the area is bad for American ?
So renegotiating horrendous trade deals all over the world is bad for America ?

Get the gist ?
Lol. Reality is there is a 14% unemployment rate.
Ballooned the deficit at a time of prosperity when he should have been cutting it.
Fed Balance sheet is nearing the point of a global financial meltdown.
Trump picks a trade war fight with China and ends up with a coronavirus pandemic he now says they intentionally seeded and spread in response.

Now he's further exacerbating the relationship with more verbal attacks. What's next World War 3?

Great job, Trump.
Go put on your mask and go get a job in retail. Oh wait, there is no more retail, or restaurants or bars.

Epic mess.
 
A word of caution. We may be getting close to the bubble bursting.

tenor.gif


:)
 
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What is Peter Navarro doing? If China did in fact weaponize the virus it sent us, why in the world would you have a foreign policy advisor out there screaming about it on TV when you should be readying a very serious and consequential response? Or are you just doing it to change the narrative of the daily news cycle...another case of jack ass foreign policy? You can't do this. The you can't levy accusations like this without proof and if you have proof, the sis the last thing you should be doing. 112 days until its over.

 
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