OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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That's definitely not true. Not as it relates to the firm I use anyway. I haven't ever seen predictions this dire.
The guy who should be the richest person in the world today is Warren Buffett if he had ever bought MSFT. He has known Bill Gates longer than anyone. I think they are very good friends and he has decided to give all his wealth to the Gates Foundation. So why not buy MSFT along the way?
I don't think he has ever bought MSFT.
Why?
I don't think he has ever bought MSFT.
Why?
He stayed away the technology stocks because he said he didn’t understand them. His two purchases in Tech were IBM and Apple. He sold all of his shares in IBM and didn’t do so well. I just read that 43% of his equity holding is in Apples shares.
The instant I believe Trump can't win, I'm pulling all of my money out and sticking it under the mattress. The economy will fall through the floor.
Definitely have your break glass plan in place. That's being crafted in case of emergency.
Funny how history repeats itself. Know a couple of guys said and did the same with Obama. The only difference is that you didn’t say buy gold and moving out of the country. All the same things said by Democrats say if Trump gets re-elected. I’m going to predict the same will be said in 2024.
The predictions were worse for Trump. In fact, the night he was elected, the stock market went down several percentage points before rebounding. Presidents probably get too much credit and too much fault for the economy. The factors that drive the economy are mostly out of their hands.
You are the first republican I know to admit this. Freedom caucus, Tea party are all fake. They only become fiscally conservative when a Democrat is in power.
Not with the firm I used. In fact, they were much better.
First Foundation. Also confirmed with another group I use at investment firm.
Since you liked my post, I am assuming that this is the First foundation investment firm you are talking about. Now read the link below. You have been caught lying my friend. Read carefully the section on "The U.S. presidential election"
https://blog.ff-inc.com/enjoy/the-eye-of-the-hurricane
The U.S. Presidential Election
Each time a U.S. presidential election approaches, we get questions from clients about our view and the impact on our investment outlook and portfolio positioning. We are being asked about the election even more than usual this year. Here is a quick review of how we think about elections in general within the context of our overall investment approach.
While the specific circumstances of any given election are unique, our approach remains essentially the same. First, to the extent a particular result is widely expected, current asset prices will reflect the market consensus. In order for us to believe there is a tactical investment opportunity stemming from a particular election outcome, we would need to believe (1) we have an edge in assessing the outcome more accurately than the market does and (2) our view is materially different from the consensus.
There is too much uncertainty and there are too many non-election variables that impact investment outcomes for us to likely see any value in positioning our portfolio for a particular result. Even if we had a higher degree of certainty as to both the outcome and the policies that would be implemented, the ultimate economic effects and outcomes would still be highly uncertain. Macroeconomics is far from a hard science, and there are a multitude of other factors and variables that impact economic and financial market outcomes beyond U.S. fiscal and monetary policy.
In sum, (1) we are not willing to bet on a particular election result relative to the odds already embedded in current market prices, (2) there is a wide range of potential macro outcomes around either result, and (3) there are a multitude of other variables and factors unrelated to the election results and outside of U.S. politicians’ control that are likely to have at least as meaningful an impact on the course of the global economy and financial markets over the next five years.
Instead of betting on election results, we stick to our longer-term analytical framework, in which we consider and weigh multiple macro scenarios, and assess the potential risks and returns for numerous asset classes and investments in each scenario. As investors, we expect to experience market price volatility and shorter-term downside risk at times – the degree of which will depend on the client’s investment objective, risk tolerance, and the corresponding risk exposure of the portfolio. Stock market history makes this clear. Volatility comes with the territory in stocks and other risk assets.
With that said, our research into the impact of the presidential election on the stock market has resulted in some interesting conclusions. Presidential election years can be among the most volatile for the stock market. Since 1900, the S&P 500 has fallen on average 1.2% in year eight of an administration. That clearly doesn’t apply to this year, with the stock market up nearly 8%. But we are bracing for potential volatility surrounding the election nonetheless. The market appears to be betting that Hillary Clinton will be victorious in November. Clinton is viewed by investors as the candidate of continuity (for better or worse, depending on your political perspective), and thus with Clinton, investors have less uncertainty with regard to future policies. What the market dislikes most is uncertainty. A Trump victory, should it occur, would likely come as a surprise and thus could cause a pullback in financial markets as investors assess the uncertainty associated with Trump. But we think such a pullback would likely be temporary.
The average compound annual growth rate of the S&P 500 since 1945 has been better under Democrat administrations, at 9.7%, than under Republican administrations, at 6.7%. However, the highest growth rate of 18.6% occurred under a Republican administration (Gerald Ford). The second-highest growth rate of 14.3% occurred under Bill Clinton. We conclude from this that there are too many factors, other than simply the party in the White House, that influence the growth rate of the stock market.
Which party prevails in an election does seem to impact individual sectors of the economy. Historically, Democratic administrations have tended to be good for health care, education, and alternative energy (although, in this case, a Clinton presidency could pose a serious challenge for the health care industry). Republican administrations have tended to be good for energy, financials, and defense. However, whichever party is in the White House, whether the president is able to accomplish his or her agenda will depend to a large extent on whether their party also controls Congress – and, right now, that question is up in the air. In any case, at the moment, we aren’t making any changes to our portfolio positioning based on the presidential election.
Lol, you just posted something from 2016. And you weren't on the private call I had last week and the one I am going to have this week.
Put all your money in the market if Biden wins. That's your business.
If people kept their word, Canada's population would have increased by 10% after the 2016 election.
LOL....so true. That’s after the 20% increase in 2012. It’s just like the other thread about NYC. It’s going to be a ghost town.
The market and businesses love Trump. Not a believable position to deny this.
Joke's on you. I posted from 2016 in response to your Trump victory and stock market.
As for your private call, I am a partner at a hedge fund and I know the industry very well. There is very little chance that a wealth management company would officially take that sort of stance. Sorry, buddy, you have been caught red handed. No one can predict what the stock market is going to do and as I mentioned to you, presidents don't control the economy as much as you might think.
Don't want to get political, but you know the Dems caused the SALT cap, right? No Senate filibuster, no cap.
So on Friday, after a couple weeks of steady down ward trending, GNUS jumped on news of a conference call for the following Monday. I suppose the market was not impressed by the conference call(or they were merely pumping up the stock on Friday) and the stock has given back all the gains of the jump.
I held firm throughout.
I also recently purchased VXRT, near it's high only to see it descend steadily since. Today it had a very solid jump, got up back near the purchase price and in extended hours I sold.
If it continues to jump tomorrow I'll regret giving it up, but if it drops then I will think I might have learned a little something here. Might even buy back in.
I held firm throughout.
I also recently purchased VXRT, near it's high only to see it descend steadily since. Today it had a very solid jump, got up back near the purchase price and in extended hours I sold.
If it continues to jump tomorrow I'll regret giving it up, but if it drops then I will think I might have learned a little something here. Might even buy back in.
@goru7, what's the word on CYDY today? Stock is tanking and there's an article out there that the trials are not passing muster. I'm not familiar with the source of the article so I'm not sure if he's a short seller trying to take the stock down or not.
The stock market loves that the treasury is printing money like it's going out of business and the rumors that they might be willing to buy securities if needed. Also with interest rates as low as they are there isn't too many other options other than precious metals and that should never be a large % of your holdings.
The Treasury is carpet bombing the economy with $$$. Foolish, methinks. Crazy, in fact. The "benefits" will not last. Then things go from bad to worst. 3Q... it starts.
I googled and found this.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357573-cytodyn-bears-bring-out-champion-to-take-on-army-of-bulls
Looks like whatever story caused the selloff was quickly taken down.
Which, like last weeks quickly reversed bearish outlook, just sounds super sketchy.
Biden would love that. Unfortunately for him, many are predicting the opposite.
Have to say this again. Loving the recommendation from my fellow RU track alum and financial advisor who told my wife to buy FSLY with some of her inheritance a few months ago It’s up 500% since then and looks like it will continue to climb
everyone loves to talk about the winners but not all the losers. Just like casino experiences.
Depends on the expiration date of the warrant for the most part. (terms of warrants vary, read them with a fine tooth comb.)
Interesting article on how a Biden presidency could affect stock.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/investing/biden-trump-stock-market-election/index.html
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/investing/biden-trump-stock-market-election/index.html
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