OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
Dude stop. I answered your original question, which in itself was douchey, but like I said I'm not going to engage in a game of professor and student. You've been the king douche of this thread, I'm not interested.
Yes, that’s why I reference March when she loaded up on TSLA, disregarding “fund management”. It’s all smoke and mirrors. Read my other post. She needs to catch up and that’s why she is adding more vol to the portfolio. Look at the option prices on TSLA. Vol is low on that stock right now.
I said it earlier in this thread, but it bears repeating. Back in the late 90s, when the market had bad breadth similar to today, the rage in mutual funds was "focused funds". They didn't use modern portfolio theory, but bought and held onto 20 momentum stocks which were outperforming, and expecting to be the leaders of the 21st century. Names such as Qualcomm, Nokia, AOL, Dell, etc.
I'm sure it's different this time, though. I mean, Catherine Wood has a twitter feed and gives media interviews now. She's probably knows what she's doing.
www.kiplinger.com
I'm sure it's different this time, though. I mean, Catherine Wood has a twitter feed and gives media interviews now. She's probably knows what she's doing.
Janus Rebuilt
With new leadership and improved returns, this one-time comet is on another streak.
www.kiplinger.com
I said it earlier in this thread, but it bears repeating. Back in the late 90s, when the market had bad breadth similar to today, the rage in mutual funds was "focused funds". They didn't use modern portfolio theory, but bought and held onto 20 momentum stocks which were outperforming, and expecting to be the leaders of the 21st century. Names such as Qualcomm, Nokia, AOL, Dell, etc.
I'm sure it's different this time, though. I mean, Catherine Wood has a twitter feed and gives media interviews now. She's probably knows what she's doing.
Janus Rebuilt
With new leadership and improved returns, this one-time comet is on another streak.
You said "bears" !!! You know what that means on this thread. INCOMING!!!!! 😉 😄
The current Bull Market made Cathie Woods, and all of us quite frankly, look like a genius. Her $3000 Tesla PT was nothing more than a ridiculous attempt to goose the stock when it was lagging the broader market. There will be a day of reckoning at some point as there always is. I’m still long the market but have some cash to deploy when the opportunity is right.I said it earlier in this thread, but it bears repeating. Back in the late 90s, when the market had bad breadth similar to today, the rage in mutual funds was "focused funds". They didn't use modern portfolio theory, but bought and held onto 20 momentum stocks which were outperforming, and expecting to be the leaders of the 21st century. Names such as Qualcomm, Nokia, AOL, Dell, etc.
I'm sure it's different this time, though. I mean, Catherine Wood has a twitter feed and gives media interviews now. She's probably knows what she's doing.
Janus Rebuilt
With new leadership and improved returns, this one-time comet is on another streak.
Yup... And GME and all those meme stocks will be worthless someday soon
The next 1-2 weeks will be important for this market. Volatility has been picking up these past couple of weeks. If we see a sustained level above let's say 23-25 then good chance we see correction or worse.
The ARK funds are down ytd. The market has carried on without the 2020 momentum stocks.I said it earlier in this thread, but it bears repeating. Back in the late 90s, when the market had bad breadth similar to today, the rage in mutual funds was "focused funds". They didn't use modern portfolio theory, but bought and held onto 20 momentum stocks which were outperforming, and expecting to be the leaders of the 21st century. Names such as Qualcomm, Nokia, AOL, Dell, etc.
I'm sure it's different this time, though. I mean, Catherine Wood has a twitter feed and gives media interviews now. She's probably knows what she's doing.
Janus Rebuilt
With new leadership and improved returns, this one-time comet is on another streak.
Except the ARK funds had been far outperforming the S&P in the 3 years prior to the Covid dip of last March.
She was also a big TSLA advocate in those days as well, despite many taking the other side of that trade.
So was she right about TSLA for the last 5 years, but wrong about it now? It's possible. But many others were wrong about TSLA for those 5 years, so I'm not sure how much I value their opinion on the matter now.
ARK hasn't performed well since they had a big inflow in assets. It's not a coincidence. The strategy isn't a good fit for a large AUM fund. She will continue to underperform.
Interesting comment. She may well come to regret not closing it to new investors. And before T2k jumps in, not closing it like T Rowe Price did with their New Horizons Fund back in 2013.
Good timing! Two of my best funds are closed - PNHSX (New Horizons) and FDGRX (Fidelity Growth Company). Obviously, sometimes managed funds can get too big and hurt performance. I don't know how this works with ETFs (or what the functionality is). I had another look time fund close a while back, but then reopen 3-4 years later (PRGTX).
In my mind, there is nothing wrong with the size or structure of ARKK or ARKF, the two CW offerings that I have in my portfolio. It's just that the holdings have cooled over the past 6 months. This is essentially across the board for spec/innovation stocks, not just the ones ARK tracks.
9 months is an arbitrary timeframe. The point stands. Trends last more than several days.
It's a common problem and uncommon for groups like T Rowe to close to new investors.
I think a better strategy is to buy a basket of the smaller names she owns and ride the wave up. Especially new positions. Just beware if the fund or market turn hard south you need to get out asap.
And there are ways around it. My niece gave birth to her 1st in July and I wanted a nice present., and 18 years of appreciation in PNHSX seemed perfect. Well you can't just open a new account and send a check. But you CAN gift shares from a taxable account as long as it meets the fund minimum. BUT, they paperwork they put me through to do it puts Boston Brewing Co. on a buy list. Of course in 18 years it MIGHT cover freshman textbooks or their equivilant.
Yes, there are definitely ways around funds being "closed". I think if you do a rollover to a T Rowe IRA, you can initially have access to their closed funds (there may be a asset threshold to meet), including New Horizons.
Great way to give to RU also. You get the double tax savings. Don’t pay capital gains and you get to write off the FMV.
And if you still need the income you can set up a charitable gift annuity. Get a partial deduction that will depend on your age and retain an income stream for life.
I've heard this narrative, but I wonder how much this is really the cause for ARK's recent underperformance.
Like was there a huge inflow of assets in Feb of this year? Or was there a continuing inflow of assets throughout 2020 and early 2021?
My thought is, the cohort of stocks she invests in, was so red hot, that it had to cool down. ARKK was up 130% from PRE covid dip levels, 250% from the March lows. Of course those stocks weren't going to continue to run at that pace, they needed to correct, they needed to consolidate and that is what we are seeing now.
But if we go back to March of 2020, either pre or post dip. ARK has still significantly outperformed the S&P.
It's not arbitrary if we are looking at ARK's underperformance to the market. Though that is more like 7 months.
And if we are trying to compare the current market to the late 90's market, was there a 7 month period where these focused funds struggled while the overall market, thanks to strength in other sectors, continued to march upwards?
Okay, I was trying to defend her, but I'll defer to your expertise. Correct, she is no longer creating alpha above the excess risk she is taking. Welcome "Cathy" to the pool of superstar fund managers who can't outperform their tracking index once they are tasked with managing non-institutional money.
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Not sure this is a buying opportunity (relatively small % drop from the highs) for the broad market, but some stocks have had meaningful corrections over the last few weeks. I will look at my list of “stocks to watch” and see if there is something I want to buy. As I mentioned a few weeks ago, I expect a material correction…. but this one is not material at this point.
I just updated my watch list. AMZN down 10.3%, PYPL 13.3%, Sq 11.8%, V 13%, and Appl 9%. I will start buying when it reach down 15%. I got plenty more but these are down close to 10% so far
I believe most markets down close to 5% so far. Many mention 15-20% but normally it turn higher earlier like maybe 10% down. The ones I track will be down 20% if the total market down 10%.
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I’m waiting for my stocks are down 15% to start buying but will continue buying until down 20-25%. Might start tomorrow or in a few days.
