OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

Looking at AMZN's 5 year chart.

From beginning of 2017 to the highs in Aug 2018, AMZN's stock price went from just under $800 to just about $2100. 150% in 20 months.

It was then flat, for about 18 months, trading just below those Aug 18th highs till about Feb 2020, where it looked to be breaking out just prior to the covid dip.

It dipped, but then took off from March until August, 6 months, where it hit a high somewhere just above $3400.

Since then, so about 12 months, it has been trading in a range somewhere between $3000 and $3700, and currently trades right at $3300.

Now that post covid 70% run was an expediated movement, and the current trading range of 12 months is shorter then the 18 range it was stuck in from Aug 2018 to feb 2020, but it does look like it is following a similar path now as it did then, building a long base after a big run.

 

[RU-05]

Now that I've realized that I can roll calls, I'm going to be more aggressive and write near term calls just out of the money.

If the stock rises above the strike I'll just roll that call to a later date.

The past couple weeks I've been selling Sofi calls with an $18 strike, a week out, because my position is bigger then I wanted and viewed that as a good price to sell part of that position, and if it hit, so be it. But I just sold $16.50 calls that expire next week. Much better premium, and like I said if it shoots past the strike, I'll roll to a later date.

 

[jtung230]

Now that I've realized that I can roll calls, I'm going to be more aggressive and write near term calls just out of the money.

If the stock rises above the strike I'll just roll that call to a later date.

The past couple weeks I've been selling Sofi calls with an $18 strike, a week out, because my position is bigger then I wanted and viewed that as a good price to sell part of that position, and if it hit, so be it. But I just sold $16.50 calls that expire next week. Much better premium, and like I said if it shoots past the strike, I'll roll to a later date.

Writing cover calls is like kissing your sister. Limited upside and doesn’t protect downside.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Jobs numbers today are not going to cut it for the "interest rates are going up soon" crew. Not looking good.

 

[RUAldo]

Transitory inflation BS! Ordered a dozen Buffalo Wings at Tito’s in Motown and they were the size of hummingbird wings and cost me $21. That’s like $1.75 per wing! Then spent $80 to fill up my X5. Cleaning lady and landscaper recently jacked up prices too. It’s ugly.

 

[RUBlackout]

Transitory inflation BS! Ordered a dozen Buffalo Wings at Tito’s in Motown and they were the size of hummingbird wings and cost me $21. That’s like $1.75 per wing! Then spent $80 to fill up my X5. Cleaning lady and landscaper recently jacked up prices too. It’s ugly.

Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems

 

[jtung230]

Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems

Isn’t that inflation? If we were all poor, no inflation.

 

[RUAldo]

Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems

Nah, I pay as much for my X5 that many people I know pay for their Jeep Grand Cherokees. At least that deal was before the COVID car shortage.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems

X5 is a toy. Filling up a Yukon Denali, now that is a real hardship! LOL.
But so worth it.

 

[RUTGERS95]

Driving an X5 - sounds like rich people problems

isn't that a tranny car?

My Ram 1500 is at 90 to fill up with 26 gallon tank

 

[T2Kplus20]

isn't that a tranny car?

My Ram 1500 is at 90 to fill up with 26 gallon tank

I think your Ram 1500 can crap out a X5. :)

 

[RUDead]

Find it interesting that Southwest continues to deny that they are having a vaccine walkout. They are a public company and are violating the law by lying to the public.

Southwest Airlines' Weekend Woes Spill Over Into Monday. The Stock Is Falling.

Southwest Airlines canceled more than 1,800 flights over the weekend and cancellations continued on Monday.

www.barrons.com

 

[rurahrah000]

SOFI tearing it up today after a bunch of upgrades. Like I said, the down slide is to allow institutional buyers to come in at a low price and then upgrade the stock. My hunch is that HOOD is next. ~$37-40 should be a low and buying point.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Interesting thoughts on small caps:

Small-cap stocks can give the market the "firepower" needed to finish the year strong, Oppenheimer analyst says

Oppenheimer head of technical analysis Ari Wald spies the next big catalyst for the stock market.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

Interesting thoughts on small caps:

Small-cap stocks can give the market the "firepower" needed to finish the year strong, Oppenheimer analyst says

Oppenheimer head of technical analysis Ari Wald spies the next big catalyst for the stock market.

www.cnbc.com

they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays

 

[T2Kplus20]

they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays

I have no long-term fear with tech and will keep my allocation steady. I have a long time horizon and tech is crushing revenue and earnings. Sure, the sector may drop a bit, but I'm not going to try to time the market. Rather, I will buy the dip as needed (got plenty of cash ready to go!).

Bio and pharma are poised for some big gains. My play is PRHSX and has been since 2005. Individual bio and pharma stocks are a tough game. Clinical trials and FDA decisions are truly impossible to predict. The only industry stock I am invested in is my own company via stock options and LTI/RSU awards.

 

[T2Kplus20]

they scare me right now as do most tech stocks. Inflation is real and it's growing and commodity prices show no sign of slowing down. Not to mention, the supply chain issues and all those goods parked off ports with no means to move only means that demand for fuel and the like coupled with less supply is only going to drive costs.

I said months ago, O&G and rate sensitive plays should make up the largest portion of your portfolios.

Have been playing a few bio plays

By the way, I made a nice amount of a few oil/energy plays. With oil hitting $80, do you think this is the peak? Time to bail and take profit?

 

[Blitz8RUCrazy]

By the way, I made a nice amount of a few oil/energy plays. With oil hitting $80, do you think this is the peak? Time to bail and take profit?

maybe in the short term as people take profits (pull back) but as the economy continues to open up next year, oil/energy will keep going higher imo.

 

[RUDead]

maybe in the short term as people take profits (pull back) but as the economy continues to open up next year, oil/energy will keep going higher imo.

Supply/demand issues in energy tend to be self correcting, but since this appears to be an structural/inflation issue it could continue to go higher. Obviously a big drop in demand could change that.

 

[toby83]

man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here

 

[RUTGERS95]

self inflicted pain (energy)

 

[toby83]

man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here

earnings are next week, i'm going to pass

 

[RUAldo]

man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here

Hard to think it could get any worse at these levels. Still generates a ton of cash and divestitures will help balance sheet.

 

[T2Kplus20]

man i am going to get suckered into AT&T

been some nice bounces in past five years when down here

Careful! AT&T is the textbook definition of a value trap (and has been for a long time).

 

[T2Kplus20]

ARK Invest webinar this afternoon. One tidbit on TSLA:

China overall car sales down 17% in Sept
TSLA sales in China up 51% in Sept

Sorry haters.

 

[RUAldo]

ARK Invest webinar this afternoon. One tidbit on TSLA:

China overall car sales down 17% in Sept
TSLA sales in China up 51% in Sept

Sorry haters.

The only number that matters is overall EV sales in China in Sept. What is it? Overall car sales is irrelevant when it comes to the EV discussion.

 

[RUTGERS95]

those are surprising numbers

 

[RUDead]

Fed admitting the obvious: Inflation is not transitory.

Fed's Bostic warns inflation surge 'will not be brief' amid wild consumer price spikes

 

[T2Kplus20]

Fed admitting the obvious: Inflation is not transitory.

Fed's Bostic warns inflation surge 'will not be brief' amid wild consumer price spikes

Inflation is just due to supply chain issues. No biggie. It will be short lived.

 

[RUDead]

Inflation is just due to supply chain issues. No biggie. It will be short lived.

A few months ago you said it would be over by fall. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

 

[jtung230]

ARK Invest webinar this afternoon. One tidbit on TSLA:

China overall car sales down 17% in Sept
TSLA sales in China up 51% in Sept

Sorry haters.

That’s why Musk loves the communist. He knows where his bread is buttered.

 

[T2Kplus20]

A few months ago you said it would be over by fall. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

Still the fall bizatch. :)

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good decision by the ARK crew:

Cathie Wood says exodus from high-cost cities will push down inflation as Ark heads to St. Petersburg

Cathie Wood is moving her investment firm's headquarters to St. Petersburg, Florida on Nov. 1.

www.cnbc.com

 

[mdk01]

A few months ago you said it would be over by fall. You were wrong then and you're wrong now.

A little Kevin Bacon:

"Remain calm. All is well."

 

[mdk01]

That’s why Musk loves the communist. He knows where his bread is buttered.

Until they demand his technology.

 

[jtung230]

Good decision by the ARK crew:

Cathie Wood says exodus from high-cost cities will push down inflation as Ark heads to St. Petersburg

Cathie Wood is moving her investment firm's headquarters to St. Petersburg, Florida on Nov. 1.

www.cnbc.com

Cost cutting is always a great sign by innovative companies.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Cost cutting is always a great sign by innovative companies.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Common sense moves are even a better sign.

 

[mdk01]

Cost cutting is always a great sign by innovative companies.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

www.bloomberg.com

Google buying the space they're already leasing at today's intertest rates makes sense. What doesn't is taking new space with the increase of remote work. Or do the youngsters still want to live in Manhattan and the thrill of the remote is fading?

 

[jtung230]

Google buying the space they're already leasing at today's intertest rates makes sense. What doesn't is taking new space with the increase of remote work. Or do the youngsters still want to live in Manhattan and the thrill of the remote is fading?

Go to the village or meatpacking and you’ll get your answer.

 

[jtung230]

Common sense moves are even a better sign.

LOL…when I worked at Deutsche Bank, they tried to move the back office to St Petersburg. Not many takers.