OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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With this move it's now my 6th biggest position. And two of those above it are not long termers.
M
The 2 bigger positions I mention above are only partial long termers. TELL and SOFI. The positions are too big, so I'll trim them eventually.
MRVL I'm holding.
The 2 bigger positions I mention above are only partial long termers. TELL and SOFI. The positions are too big, so I'll trim them eventually.
That’s why I generally stay away from speculative stocks. There are a lot of companies that were (some still are) priced to perfection. We’re starting to see which one are naked as the tide rolls out. DocuSign is another one getting crushed tonight; down 30% in after hours.
Spec stocks have a time and place, but they are spec for a reason. Speaking of DocuSign, it's a good case study of emotional and irrational investors:
- For the third quarter, DocuSign’s earnings and revenue topped estimates
- DocuSign said it expects fourth-quarter revenue of $557 million to $563 million
- Street's estimate was $573.8 million (about 2-3% higher)
- Stock drops 30%
I hope you mean emotional and irrational on the way up when it hit $315 a share(which I doubt).. it was priced to perfection after increasing 300% in a 5 quarter period. It happens every cycle, people get crazed and think stocks will continue to grow at irrational rates; very few do and the rest correct.
it’s not the retail investors knocking it down 30%, it’s the big guys that have reassessed the company’s prospects. It’s a great company, but great companies are not always great buys. And I guess you didn’t choose to read this critical part;
——
For the final three months of the year, growth is expected to come in at around 30%, which CEO Dan Springer acknowledged as a disappointment after “exceptionally high growth rates at scale” during the first half of 2020.
“While we had expected an eventual step down from the peak levels of growth achieved during the height of the pandemic, the environment shifted more quickly than we anticipated,” Springer said on the earnings call.
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All this money needs to go somewhere else eventually!
www.wsj.com
Covid-19 Made Americans Into Super Savers. Now They’re Hoarding Cash.
The lingering pandemic has made many people too nervous about potential worst-case scenarios to dip into their savings.
www.wsj.com
Morningstar has DOCU's FMV at $290. This may come down a little, but as of now, the stock is sitting at $165. People need to think more, emotionally act less.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Dan Romanoff Updated Sep 03, 2021
Our fair value estimate for DocuSign is $290 per share, which implies a fiscal 2022 enterprise value/sales multiple of 28 times and a 1.0% free cash flow yield. We model a 30% compound annual growth rate over the next five years for revenue, along with the non-GAAP operating margin improving from 17% in fiscal 2021 (actual) to the low-to-mid 20% area in fiscal 2026. We think medium-term growth will be primarily driven by new users and more seats at existing customers, as well as increasing adoption of the Agreement Cloud. We expect the firm to benefit from increased penetration in the international markets as well. Further, we see average revenue per user increasing as customer size increases and more customers adopt the complete suite, which carries higher pricing. The growth and margin trajectories are consistent with a variety of software companies we cover that have completed their IPOs in recent years. We expect scale on cost of goods sold and all operating expense line items as well.
Thanks for the useless information that is three months old; earnings growth slowed more than expected; see the addition to my post above.
2-3% more than expected. LOL! And if you read and thought before posting, DOCU's guidance is still inline with MS's growth projections. Please do better next time.
Update from MS this morning (ouch to the emotional CLs):
"Shares had already sold off 25% over the last three months, so our initial inclination is the after-hours move is punitive towards management rather than fundamental."
LOL!
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My gut tells me DocuSign may be one of the lockdown companies that won’t be around in a few years unless they become more than a one trick pony - Adobe and Microsoft are going to crush them. They have no moat or secret sauce. Pretty sure that’s why nobody has bought them at this point.
Yes, I believe so, which obviously helps T, and at the same time $43B doesn’t seem out of the ordinary these days. Last I heard, Disney had over $50B in long term debt and still has yet to reinstitute their dividend. Which blew my mind when the stock doubled. I don’t know what to make of T because I thought the floor was $25. Clearly it’s on a lot of naughty lists but may offer opportunity.
ATT is in a situation where I can typically be interested. I'm not usually into the high flyer whipsaw stocks that a lot of this thread talks about. At times, I'm somewhat of a "strategic knife catcher" in old tried and true names when they're hated but it depends.
I went into Microsoft awhile back when there was that whole issue of secular decline, PCs are dying etc..and I said that's crap this company is in the guts of every enterprise out there and no one is removing it especially at cost...they will be fine. Same for PG at one time, the thing on them was no new products or innovation etc... Recently GE, which is just about as crap a situation as you could find with what Immelt did. Tons of debt, going into dying business, etc...Got into that in the single digits (before the reverse split) and it's played out like I've mentioned here...long hard slog and will likely have trouble in the low double digit area. That's about what's happening. I'm still holding it. I was willing to step into that because I felt good in Culp's management, especially with his Danaher history and there were pieces to sell to try and get that debt to more manageable levels. Despite the company being mismanaged Aviation was still a crown jewel piece, health care a solid one and renewables possibly one with potential. So as bleak as it looked there were things there to hang my hat on and it's money I was willing to lose on a chance.
ATT has got that same debt issue but it's not being gotten rid of it in the same fashion. It'll just be moving it from one part of the company to another and you ending up owning both. It didn't just magically disappear. FCF you hope those estimates are good but I don't trust management. GE got totally new outside management like for the first time in forever, if not ever, and it was good management. ATT I think is the same guy who at the time was an "underling" for the last guy and endorsed all these bad moves. So I'm wary about that. Is this guy really the guy to get you out of the mess? I don't know. It worked at Home Depot. Nardelli went from GE to HD and didn't do well but his lieutenant Frank Blake who came with him from GE took over after and did a great job at HD. I'm tempted but for now think I'll hold off and see if it might drop lower. This would likely be a "slog play" too lol. I mentioned this 22 area is like 12 year lows. 18 area would be around 20 year lows.
At some point, value traps do offer value unless their business is no longer relevant. I’m not suggesting $23 is the time to buy because it’s hard to say how the whole WM spin-off plays out in terms of the actual numbers. But this stock has gotten pounded mainly due to tax selling and Wall Street’s frustration with management over poor communication surrounding the dividend. Then again, I’m one of those people convinced that Apple buys the new WM/Disco company.
Yes, current CEO helped architect the monstrosity that is now being split up. Funny thing about Wall Street is they hated the acquisitions/debt. So AT&T sells all non-core assets and reduces debt per their directive and then what - Wall Street obliterated the stock. I could be completely wrong but I think they kept the current CEO around solely for the purpose of unwinding the mess he helped make. They would be wise to bring in a Silicon Valley visionary post-WM spin-off to change the company’s perception.
SARK up 25% in last 2.5 week, while ARKK down 22% during same time period, down 40% off the high and at a 16 month low.
DOCU is a value trap. The risk in owning T long term is essentially eliminated. The problem is, this board thinks long term is 2 quarters.
Like I’ve said before, imagine if TSLA wasn’t her largest holding.
I’m pretty new here. Apologize if it was discussed before. But do you all think all these Chinese companies would be delisted? I personally still have a small position of Chinese stocks, such as BABA and NIO.
No, probably not delisted, but as long as politics and the China gov messes around, they will get artificially impacted quite a bit. Very unpredictable dynamic.
Thoughts on CFVI? Lot of chatter/hype in social media.
Rumble merged with the SPAC to go public. Room for a viable youtube alternative, but perhaps their most valuable asset is actually Locals — which has quickly become one of the fastest growing social networks
Not sure how these SPACs normally go though? If they merge at their current price, does that mean usually what the company is worth? Or is this a potential value play.
Rumble merged with the SPAC to go public. Room for a viable youtube alternative, but perhaps their most valuable asset is actually Locals — which has quickly become one of the fastest growing social networks
Not sure how these SPACs normally go though? If they merge at their current price, does that mean usually what the company is worth? Or is this a potential value play.
Next groups of stocks to collapse (further) will be GME and AMC. Several of the other Reddit stocks are at or approaching their 52 week low (CLNE, CLOV, BB, WISH, BBBY, UWMC, WKHS, GREE). Surprised they hung in this long, but the party is over. A lot of lessons learned; instead of sticking it to the man, they stuck it to themselves. That is why Hood is down so much; their users blew all their money.
Never understood the Reddit crew. Liquidating the shorts is a good thing, but then what? Gotta bail with that profit. HOOD is down because not even their users like the company.
CW giving the markets the middle finger, buying the DOCU dip! Obviously, this is just rebalancing the holdings:
| ARK offers fully transparent Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") and provides investors with trade information for all actively managed ETFs. This email only reflects portfolio adjustments made by the ARK investment team. Files of trades are not comprehensive lists of a day's trades for the ARK ETFs and exclude initial/secondary public offering transactions and ETF Creation/Redemption Unit activity. Complete holding files are posted daily on ark-funds.com. |
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If CCP can trigger US market fluctuations by just delisting 1 company… then imagine how they could wield that mechanism
even further…
Art of War 101
Imagine how our market would look if they delisted 200+ at once in an attempt to flash crash us.
This is a brutal regime that has zero remorse for their covid actions, particularly in banning all domestic travel, but opening the flood gates wide for international flights when they knew Covid was highly transmissible.
They’re invested in Middle East, Africa and Russia now — and don’t need us as much to create a supply chain demand. They hold the cards. People will argue that we’re too interlocked, too dependent on each other — Not any more, and they simply haven’t done enough digging on the geopolitics at play here.
Remember, you also technically don’t own these stocks. Even if not delisted, and type of military confrontation (ie Taiwan) could render it all worthless.
I wouldn’t have 1 cent in CCP stocks.
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