OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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I won’t sell certain core holdings like Alphabet, Meta, CVS, BUG, etc. But I sat on DKS for 3 years and it didn’t move.
That’s terrible advice. Buy and hold works for index funds but not individual stocks.
^^^^^ dumb post. If he held on to that stock, it would be worth a lot more now.
I'm long holds on 15 stocks (12 tech and 3 crypto). So far so good!
huh? There's no daytraders on the Forbes 400 list.
I bought MO 25 years ago back when I smoked and reinvested dividends and held every spinoff. It's paying me back twice my original investment every year in dividends, even though smoking is down something like 80%. There's absolutely no reason for me to sell MO or it's spinoffs PM/MDLZ as long as the dividend is secure, the original reason I bought the stock in my mid 20s. I sold their Kraft spinoff when they cut their dividend a few years ago.
Record close for the S&P:
www.cnbc.com
S&P 500 rises to record close Friday despite inflation fears, posts best week since February
The S&P 500 closed at a record on Friday, capping off Wall Street's strong rally this week, despite inflation hitting a 39-year high.
I can name stocks that don’t exist anymore. I’m not talking about day trading but buying individual stocks is not buy and hold.
No one says I’m going to buy crap stocks. They all start out as quality stocks until they are not. Even directional funds need to be monitor. Just look at ARKK 😀.
Help? Can’t find a company with the ticker WDYT to buy!!!!
Own everything but 'bubble assets' tech and crypto, recommends Institutional Investor hall of famer Rich Bernstein
Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors is a market bull whose playbook excludes some of Wall Street's most popular groups.
Here's a topic to chat about. Any portfolio adjustments for 2022? Financials normally due well when interest rates increase. I'm thinking about adding VFH (Vanguard Financial Index ETF) to one of our accounts.
Should be an interesting year. As interest rates begin to creep up, stocks should continue to perform well. 2017 was a great year for the market while rates were increasing .25% per quarter. There wasn't an issue until the FFR got above 2%. We experienced a brief 20% drop in late 2018 when Powell got too nutty (and was heavily criticized). I doubt that happens again.
Should be an interesting year. As interest rates begin to creep up, stocks should continue to perform well. 2017 was a great year for the market while rates were increasing .25% per quarter. There wasn't an issue until the FFR got above 2%. We experienced a brief 20% drop in late 2018 when Powell got too nutty (and was heavily criticized). I doubt that happens again.
Rates since 2008 global economic downturn
- Dec 16, 2008 — 0.0–0.25
- Dec 16, 2015 — 0.25–0.50
- Dec 14, 2016 — 0.50–0.75
- Mar 15, 2017 — 0.75–1.00
- Jun 14, 2017 — 1.00–1.25
- Dec 13, 2017 — 1.25–1.50
- Mar 21, 2018 — 1.50–1.75
- Jun 13, 2018 — 1.75–2.00
- Sep 26, 2018 — 2.00–2.25
- Dec 19, 2018 — 2.25–2.50
- Jul 31, 2019 — 2.00–2.25
- Sep 18, 2019 — 1.75–2.00
- Oct 30, 2019 — 1.50–1.75
- Mar 3, 2020 — 1.00–1.25
- Mar 15, 2020 — 0.00–0.25
This doesn’t fit the narrative around here:Own everything but 'bubble assets' tech and crypto, recommends Institutional Investor hall of famer Rich Bernstein
Rich Bernstein of Richard Bernstein Advisors is a market bull whose playbook excludes some of Wall Street's most popular groups.
“The last time the FCF [free cash flow] yield for the energy sector was this high relative to either the market or the Tech sector was around the Tech Bubble, and energy outperformed for a decade. The sector’s dividend yield is >3X the S&P 500′s dividend yield.”
““Cryptos are the biggest financial bubble ever in history,” said Bernstein. “This is just a monster one.”
“If you invested in the Nasdaq 100, which were the real companies at the time, it took you 14 years to break even,” said Bernstein. “Something tells me that the people today are not paying attention to valuations, but also aren’t thinking it’s going to take them 14 years to break even.”
I would have trouble sleeping if I was loaded up with bubble tech stocks after reading this. I don’t think many on here are loaded up with crypto; at least I hope they are not. Probably not bad to have a small amount of exposure (I have no crypto), as it’s tough to understand human emotion,
The dude is living in the past using old data methods. His big play is energy. The numbers look great for energy, but a huge # of investors (individual and institutions) won't buy it due to ESG concerns. He is using the old investment playbook.
You might be right about ESG (it’s a major wild card), but cash flow is cash flow, so it might be tough for the big investors to ignore if energy prices stay high. We shall see. I have a fair amount of exposure to energy, but staying diversified. Generally companies with with solid earnings and not too much speculation.
I made a nice profit on XLE earlier this year, but nowhere near projections of investors citing past prices (based on oil prices and cash flow). Even Tom Lee, who I respect and listen to, was wrong on energy. Based on oil/energy demand, the sector should be up 2-3x, especial oil services like OIH. That's just not going to happen due to a large portion of investors refusing to consider those companies.
I think the financials play may be a good one for 2022, as interest rates start to creep up. Looking at VFH or IYG.
But the energy companies are leaning more and more towards ESG themselves.
Could the market begin to put ESG value into these energy companies in time? Especially when we see that renewables will need to lean on fossil's during the transition, and perhaps even after?
It's an interesting dynamic.
ESG isn't really a wild card though. It's been a reality in the market for awhiles. The questions I have, as I allude to above is, can the energy companies go green enough? And will the market value the changes they make?
Can they convince the younger gen and those that really care about ESG? Not sure. The logic to be bullish on energy makes sense. However, sometimes logic doesn't overcome emotion.
LOL:
time.com
Elon Musk Is TIME's 2021 Person of the Year
Visionary. Showman. Iconoclast. Troll. How Elon Musk is reshaping our world—and beyond
time.com
Are we getting close to the end of Reddit mania?
- is the Game over for GME? Down 43% in last 3 weeks
- is there no more Entertainment in owning AMC? Down 49% in last three weeks.
- Can we put BBBY to Bed? Down 31% last 3 weeks
- Do they Wish they stayed away fro ContexLogic (ticker WISH)? Almost 90% off its high.
- Has owning CLOV, impacted their Health? Down about 80% from its high.
- Did owning Blackberry put them in the red? Down over 65% from its yearly high.
- And have the poor handed over money to the rich by owning HOOD? Down over 70% from its high.
But they had fun “sticking it to the man”, at least for a while.
- is the Game over for GME? Down 43% in last 3 weeks
- is there no more Entertainment in owning AMC? Down 49% in last three weeks.
- Can we put BBBY to Bed? Down 31% last 3 weeks
- Do they Wish they stayed away fro ContexLogic (ticker WISH)? Almost 90% off its high.
- Has owning CLOV, impacted their Health? Down about 80% from its high.
- Did owning Blackberry put them in the red? Down over 65% from its yearly high.
- And have the poor handed over money to the rich by owning HOOD? Down over 70% from its high.
But they had fun “sticking it to the man”, at least for a while.
Perhaps the Reddit crew stuck it to the man and got out on top? Other retail traders that jumped in late may have been the big losers.
ARKK: An Object Lesson in How Not To Invest — Morningstar
There's a massive gap between reported total returns and investors’ actual results.
Interesting article. The weighted average return of the ARKK fund significantly trails the S&P 500 over the last 5 years, since most of the money didn’t come in until the 2nd half of 2020 and 2021. So most were late to the game and have not done well.
Per the article: “2020 net inflows didn’t really open up until late in the year; as a result, most shareholders who bought in during 2020 didn’t fully benefit from the fund’s triple-digit calendar-year gains.”
“ …more than half of all net inflows for 2020 came in during the last three months of the year. In fact, the fund’s $3 billion of net inflows in December 2020 made up about one fifth of all cumulative inflows since inception.”
I suggest that people read the whole article, as there are a lot of good lessons that are discussed.
Here is some of the info:
“Triple-digit returns don’t repeat. As we’ve pointed out in the past, it’s highly unlikely for any fund to continue posting chart-topping returns year after year. Funds can typically rack up gains of 100% or more only by making concentrated bets on individual stocks in the market’s hottest sectors, which usually means taking on nosebleed levels of valuation risk. That often leads to sharp losses when market trends reverse course and valuations drop to more realistic levels.
Risk matters. On a related note, it’s impossible to generate high returns without taking on high levels of risk. As I wrote in a previous article, ARKK’s portfolio courts extreme levels of risk on almost every type of fundamental metric, including concentration, momentum, liquidity, valuation, and financial health. This high level of risk makes it imperative for shareholders to fully understand what they’re getting into before climbing on board.”
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I think we should all be wary of a correction that may or may not be starting, certainly not a great couple of weeks for the NASDAQ. @T2Kplus20, I appreciate your enthusiasm and am familiar with Peter Lynch's mantra quoted at the bottom of your posts but one should also remember the other side of that quote, "never try to catch a falling knife." Having said all that, eventually anyone that has recently entered the market during this downtrend will probably recoup any losses. The only variable is how long will it take to recoup those losses. For those that are unaware, a 50% drop in a year will necessitate a 100% gain to recoup. So if time is not on your side or you have a shorter horizon, cautiousness and patience are warranted.
Already have a sell order in at 18.6. I hope it’s not a long term hold.
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