OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[T2Kplus20]

I think we should all be wary of a correction that may or may not be starting, certainly not a great couple of weeks for the NASDAQ. @T2Kplus20, I appreciate your enthusiasm and am familiar with Peter Lynch's mantra quoted at the bottom of your posts but one should also remember the other side of that quote, "never try to catch a falling knife." Having said all that, eventually anyone that has recently entered the market during this downtrend will probably recoup any losses. The only variable is how long will it take to recoup those losses. For those that are unaware, a 50% drop in a year will necessitate a 100% gain to recoup. So if time is not on your side or you have a shorter horizon, cautiousness and patience are warranted.

The waters may be choppy for a while, but as you said, it's all about time horizons. I've made several EOY reallocations to focus a bit more on value and financials. Established tech is rock solid with huge earnings, so I'm buying these dips as much as possible. As for spec tech, not buying the dip except for a few can't pass up opportunities.

Also, since I'm not a trader, I can take advantage of my time horizon (for now!).

 

[jtung230]

Stop with the crumbs, bake some real bread! :)

Real bread is baked by someone else. This is just play money.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Real bread is baked by someone else. This is just play money.

I would call you a financial weakling for letting someone else do your work.....but 95% of our investments are via funds and ETFs. About 3-4% are in those 12 tech stocks that I main bought in March and 1-2% in our crypto portfolio. I've been adding SQ/Block to the latter at a nice price. Bought more this morning.

 

[RU-05]

Limping away from some trades which have been utterly brutal.

Slight relief in that the losses will offset some gains from early this year.

 

[RU-05]

AI popping today, on news of stock buy back.

Popped last week on news of a Gov't contract. Though it gave pretty much all that back.

Down 80% off it's highs or something crazy like that. More then 50% off it's IPO price.

Still pre earnings with no expectations of earnings for the forseeable.

15x price to revs. 30% growth expected yoy.

Interesting but after just getting murdered in some risk on plays, I think I'm staying away here.

 

[RU-05]

Sofi? Any thoughts on wtf is going on there?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Sofi? Any thoughts on wtf is going on there?

I saw something about warrants today on SoFi. I have a ton a cash ready to roll if Powell goes chicken little on us like he did in 2018. This may be the best buying opportunity since 2020.

 

[T2Kplus20]

AI popping today, on news of stock buy back.

Popped last week on news of a Gov't contract. Though it gave pretty much all that back.

Down 80% off it's highs or something crazy like that. More then 50% off it's IPO price.

Still pre earnings with no expectations of earnings for the forseeable.

15x price to revs. 30% growth expected yoy.

Interesting but after just getting murdered in some risk on plays, I think I'm staying away here.

Wasn't AI a big Reddit push for a while? If yes, I have no idea what's the true value of it.

 

[RU-05]

Wasn't AI a big Reddit push for a while? If yes, I have no idea what's the true value of it.

It IPO'd somewhere around $80 if I remember right. So it wasn't all Reddit. The run afterward up near $150 was certainly retailer fueled.

But a current price to rev's of 15x with 30% expected growth. I feel that growth needs to better for that rev's multiple, but they could always beat.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Sofi? Any thoughts on wtf is going on there?

Nice SoFi move here. Can I give you a few other names in my portfolio to ask about to see if they wake up too? 😂

 

[T2Kplus20]

Fed announcement as expected. Very good news. Interests rates to 0.9% in 2022 and only 1.6% in 2023. Awaiting to hear from Powell, but the decisions are even-handed and expected.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Well done by Papa Powell:

Dow jumps 380 points, Nasdaq surges 2% in relief rally after Fed gives rate hiking timeline

The Fed announced a more aggressive taper at its December meeting and said it expects three rate hikes next year.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RUAldo]

Will be interesting to see if today’s jump leads to even more end of year tax selling.

 

[RU-05]

Nice SoFi move here. Can I give you a few other names in my portfolio to ask about to see if they wake up too? 😂

That one I didn't sell.

But I absolutely woke the market up by selling off a bunch of positions today.

So you are all welcome.

 

[RU-05]

Well done by Papa Powell:

Dow jumps 380 points, Nasdaq surges 2% in relief rally after Fed gives rate hiking timeline

The Fed announced a more aggressive taper at its December meeting and said it expects three rate hikes next year.

www.cnbc.com

Sell the rumor buy the news.

 

[RU-05]

Will be interesting to see if today’s jump leads to even more end of year tax selling.

I'm hoping for a bit of a level off tomorrow and I'll put some the money back to work.

FB, maybe one final add to PYPL. UPS. DKS. Some names I'm thinking.

Also thinking T might have bottomed. I mean how much cheaper can it get?

INTL is another value stock that I've been in and out of to not so great results. But they are a behemoth in a hot industry. Eventually they have to get it right. Right?

 

[T2Kplus20]

I'm hoping for a bit of a level off tomorrow and I'll put some the money back to work.

FB, maybe one final add to PYPL. UPS. DKS. Some names I'm thinking.

Also thinking T might have bottomed. I mean how much cheaper can it get?

INTL is another value stock that I've been in and out of to not so great results. But they are a behemoth in a hot industry. Eventually they have to get it right. Right?

T is a bad stock, but even worse, is a bad company. Still, MS has it's FMV at $36:

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Michael Hodel Updated Oct 21, 2021
Our $36 fair value estimate excludes DirecTV results beyond 2021, instead including the cash we expect AT&T will realize from its venture with TPG. We continue to include WarnerMedia in its current form. We expect several of the same trends that have hit AT&T’s businesses recently will remain in place, yielding modest wireless revenue growth, despite increased network capacity, while heavy content investment pressures WarnerMedia’s profitability.

In wireless, we expect AT&T will modestly gain market share through 2022 as it reestablishes its market position. We believe postpaid revenue per phone customer, which bottomed in 2018 with the transition to unsubsidized rate plans but has stagnated recently, will remain around $54 per month over the next couple year and then grow modestly thereafter amid a relatively stable competitive environment. We estimate AT&T generates a bit less than $1 billion in revenue annually from connected devices, such as cars. We model this revenue roughly tripling over the next five years as things like edge computing gain adoption, but this estimate is highly uncertain. We expect wireless service revenue will increase 4% annually on average through 2025, with wireless margins declining modestly over this period, as pricing rationalization partially offsets rising network operating costs.

At WarnerMedia, we expect a 14% rebound in revenue during 2021 with 5% average annual growth through 2025 after that. We model growth, absent the rebound from the pandemic, holding fairly steady as HBO Max gains acceptance and offsets weakness in the traditional television business. We don’t have high expectations for the advertising business over the long term, as consumer behavior shifts away from ad-supported formats reduces inventory, offset only in part by stronger pricing. We also expect that increased investments in content required to fend off newer entrants will pressure margins.

We expect the consumer broadband business will deliver steadily improving growth as the fiber build gains momentum. We also expect the enterprise services business can gradually return to growth in the coming years. In total, we believe consolidated revenue can grow about 3% annually over the next five years, excluding the impact of the divested television business. We expect AT&T will produce modest consolidated EBITDA margin expansion, with capital spending increasing to support the fiber network upgrade and 5G deployment.

 

[RU-05]

T is a bad stock, but even worse, is a bad company. Still, MS has it's FMV at $36:

Fair Value and Profit Drivers | by Michael Hodel Updated Oct 21, 2021
Our $36 fair value estimate excludes DirecTV results beyond 2021, instead including the cash we expect AT&T will realize from its venture with TPG. We continue to include WarnerMedia in its current form. We expect several of the same trends that have hit AT&T’s businesses recently will remain in place, yielding modest wireless revenue growth, despite increased network capacity, while heavy content investment pressures WarnerMedia’s profitability.

In wireless, we expect AT&T will modestly gain market share through 2022 as it reestablishes its market position. We believe postpaid revenue per phone customer, which bottomed in 2018 with the transition to unsubsidized rate plans but has stagnated recently, will remain around $54 per month over the next couple year and then grow modestly thereafter amid a relatively stable competitive environment. We estimate AT&T generates a bit less than $1 billion in revenue annually from connected devices, such as cars. We model this revenue roughly tripling over the next five years as things like edge computing gain adoption, but this estimate is highly uncertain. We expect wireless service revenue will increase 4% annually on average through 2025, with wireless margins declining modestly over this period, as pricing rationalization partially offsets rising network operating costs.

At WarnerMedia, we expect a 14% rebound in revenue during 2021 with 5% average annual growth through 2025 after that. We model growth, absent the rebound from the pandemic, holding fairly steady as HBO Max gains acceptance and offsets weakness in the traditional television business. We don’t have high expectations for the advertising business over the long term, as consumer behavior shifts away from ad-supported formats reduces inventory, offset only in part by stronger pricing. We also expect that increased investments in content required to fend off newer entrants will pressure margins.

We expect the consumer broadband business will deliver steadily improving growth as the fiber build gains momentum. We also expect the enterprise services business can gradually return to growth in the coming years. In total, we believe consolidated revenue can grow about 3% annually over the next five years, excluding the impact of the divested television business. We expect AT&T will produce modest consolidated EBITDA margin expansion, with capital spending increasing to support the fiber network upgrade and 5G deployment.

I don't know if it's a bad company. It makes billions. But those earnings have been, and will continue to be, stagnant.

But it has gone from cheap, to super cheap. Its dividend is currently 9%. They will cut that but it's still going to be significant. And you get the spinoff.

So it probably pretty safe at these levels (granted I would have said that when it was $30), you get the dividend, you get the spinoff, then you just hope for some multiple expansion.

 

[RUAldo]

I don't know if it's a bad company. It makes billions. But those earnings have been, and will continue to be, stagnant.

But it has gone from cheap, to super cheap. Its dividend is currently 9%. They will cut that but it's still going to be significant. And you get the spinoff.

So it probably pretty safe at these levels (granted I would have said that when it was $30), you get the dividend, you get the spinoff, then you just hope for some multiple expansion.

I bought some T in the $23-$25 range. So I’m down a bit, but not as much as I’m down in PYPL. I don’t disagree with anything said about the company/management. I bought based purely on FCF, dividend (even when trimmed), and the fact that I’m a huge believer in the future WM/Disco company. HBOMax is grossly underrated and if they can fix the algorithms and marketing, integrate Discovery content, I believe it can be a serious threat to Netflix.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I don't know if it's a bad company. It makes billions. But those earnings have been, and will continue to be, stagnant.

But it has gone from cheap, to super cheap. Its dividend is currently 9%. They will cut that but it's still going to be significant. And you get the spinoff.

So it probably pretty safe at these levels (granted I would have said that when it was $30), you get the dividend, you get the spinoff, then you just hope for some multiple expansion.

Anemic growth and awful capital decisions. For the past 10 years, the stock has been down, down, down. Can things change? Sure, but that seems to be a tough bet to make.

 

[T2Kplus20]

By the way, is anyone else noticing huge end of year payouts by funds this year? Cap gains and dividends. A few of my T Rowe funds had price corrections of well over 10%. Thank goodness for tax-free accounts! :)

 

[RUAldo]

I'm hoping for a bit of a level off tomorrow and I'll put some the money back to work.

FB, maybe one final add to PYPL. UPS. DKS. Some names I'm thinking.

Also thinking T might have bottomed. I mean how much cheaper can it get?

INTL is another value stock that I've been in and out of to not so great results. But they are a behemoth in a hot industry. Eventually they have to get it right. Right?

My gut tells me we are in for another Omicron fiasco even if short-lived. The NBA/NFL are signs of trouble. My daughter’s games were cancelled last weekend and now this weekend because the other teams from out of state were in COVID protocol. A bunch of kids in my son’s classes have been out this week. Cornell can’t be the only college with big numbers. If the market dips, are there any lockdown stocks worth buying/holding now that they’ve already been shredded?

 

[T2Kplus20]

My gut tells me we are in for another Omicron fiasco even if short-lived. The NBA/NFL are signs of trouble. My daughter’s games were cancelled last weekend and now this weekend because the other teams from out of state were in COVID protocol. A bunch of kids in my son’s classes have been out this week. Cornell can’t be the only college with big numbers. If the market dips, are there any lockdown stocks worth buying/holding now that they’ve already been shredded?

Zoom?
Also look at the charts for Peloton and DOCU. Classic lockdown plays.

 

[RUAldo]

Zoom?
Also look at the charts for Peloton and DOCU. Classic lockdown plays.

Yeah, those 3 def rode the last waves but I’m wondering if they’ve run their course. I think Microsoft eventually crushes Zoom. Adobe crushes DocuSign. And people realize that Peloton is not the answer because lockdowns don’t last forever. I already own Camping World and like the outdoor recreation stocks. Match?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yeah, those 3 def rode the last waves but I’m wondering if they’ve run their course. I think Microsoft eventually crushes Zoom. Adobe crushes DocuSign. And people realize that Peloton is not the answer because lockdowns don’t last forever. I already own Camping World and like the outdoor recreation stocks. Match?

There probably won't be a lockdown or one that most people adhere to. However, I assume these are short term plays, so the competition doesn't matter as much.

Zoom and Peloton are not long holds. DOCU is a little interesting since they are working on electronic notarization process that would get gov approval. That would be big.

 

[RUAldo]

There probably won't be a lockdown or one that most people adhere to. However, I assume these are short term plays, so the competition doesn't matter as much.

Zoom and Peloton are not long holds. DOCU is a little interesting since they are working on electronic notarization process that would get gov approval. That would be big.

I don’t think there will be true lockdown but I was supposed to hear how many companies are pushing back reopening and schools starting virtual again until coast is clear.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Could this be the next WSB stock?

 

[T2Kplus20]

Could this be the next WSB stock?

View embedded media

This may be too epic for some to handle. :)

 

[RU-05]

Anemic growth and awful capital decisions. For the past 10 years, the stock has been down, down, down. Can things change? Sure, but that seems to be a tough bet to make.

$20 is the 25 year low water mark. Currently at $22. Feel like given the technical support, and the low p/e, it's pretty safe here.

 

[RUAldo]

I don't know if it's a bad company. It makes billions. But those earnings have been, and will continue to be, stagnant.

But it has gone from cheap, to super cheap. Its dividend is currently 9%. They will cut that but it's still going to be significant. And you get the spinoff.

So it probably pretty safe at these levels (granted I would have said that when it was $30), you get the dividend, you get the spinoff, then you just hope for some multiple expansion.

RU-05 = clairvoyant?

AT&T upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, valuation is now 'attractive' (NYSE:T)

AT&T (T) is being upgraded at Morgan Stanley to overweight, as the research firm believes the steep sell-off in shares is overdone and there should be some optimism as...

seekingalpha.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

RU-05 = clairvoyant?

AT&T upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, valuation is now 'attractive' (NYSE:T)

AT&T (T) is being upgraded at Morgan Stanley to overweight, as the research firm believes the steep sell-off in shares is overdone and there should be some optimism as...

seekingalpha.com

Morgan Stanley is a good shop. I listen to their reports (on stocks and sectors).

 

[RU in IM]

RU-05 = clairvoyant?

AT&T upgraded to overweight at Morgan Stanley, valuation is now 'attractive' (NYSE:T)

AT&T (T) is being upgraded at Morgan Stanley to overweight, as the research firm believes the steep sell-off in shares is overdone and there should be some optimism as...

seekingalpha.com

Up over 5% today. Unfortunately I have owned this for a while. And although the dividend has been great, the price drop has been painful. I have done some DCA, but I need this to run further to dig out of my hole. Luckily, I am very diversified with 45+ stocks.

 

[Rutgers Chris]

Morgan Stanley is a good shop. I listen to their reports (on stocks and sectors).

Everyone except Adam Jonas

Tesla shares could drop to $10 in a worst-case scenario, Morgan Stanley says

Morgan Stanley analysts said the reduction was driven by concerns around Chinese demand for Tesla products.

www.cnbc.com

 

[T2Kplus20]

Everyone except Adam Jonas

Tesla shares could drop to $10 in a worst-case scenario, Morgan Stanley says

Morgan Stanley analysts said the reduction was driven by concerns around Chinese demand for Tesla products.

www.cnbc.com

LOL. Cross him off the list!

 

[rcube1994]

LOL. Cross him off the list!

What happened with PRNHX?

 

[RUAldo]

Up over 5% today. Unfortunately I have owned this for a while. And although the dividend has been great, the price drop has been painful. I have done some DCA, but I need this to run further to dig out of my hole. Luckily, I am very diversified with 45+ stocks.

I hear you - it’s frustrating because management should be able to drive a stronger narrative based on the WM/Disc deal plus renewed focus on the network business. But, at least there is a dividend and future WM/Disc shares if you have to hang on for a bit, something you don’t get with spec tech plays that cratered.

 

[RUJohnny99]

T is a bad stock, but even worse, is a bad company. Still, MS has it's FMV at $36:

Can you please refer to your crappy newsletter as M* like everyone else to differentiate it from Morgan Stanley?

 

[Joey Bags]

Closed out my SPY position at it daily high today, it's been an epic run and I'm taking some damn profits to put towards our new house.

I see a rocky road over the next month or so until Omicron clears out. There is going to be ALOT of irrational fear, especially when the country starts to see up to 500k cases a day.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Can you please refer to your crappy newsletter as M* like everyone else to differentiate it from Morgan Stanley?

1. Yo momma
2. Morningstar is a well-known and respected service
3. No problem

 

[RUAldo]

Closed out my SPY position at it daily high today, it's been an epic run and I'm taking some damn profits to put towards our new house.

I see a rocky road over the next month or so until Omicron clears out. There is going to be ALOT of irrational fear, especially when the country starts to see up to 500k cases a day.

Totally agree - we could have some major drops especially once holiday parties pump up the omicron numbers. Will be some buying opportunities although not sure tech will lead the charge again.