Very nice day, actually a great day. GOOG up, AMD up, added more this morning ,but PYPL down. Sold the PYPL, small amount, that I recently purchased.
I hope AMZN does well.
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OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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I hope AMZN does well.
I think PYPL gave FY guidance of 4.60-4.75 for 2022. At the price currently that puts its PE at 32 which isn't bad for it historically. If went to the 120s it would put the forward PE in the mid 20s again so even better. Growth and new users was quite a bit below expectations but it's still growing and making money. I'm willing to add if it drops more depending on what's going on.
With the big boys still crushing it, any irrational dips are going to be very temporary. Just long enough to buy, buy, buy.
#earningsmatter
PYPL isn't going anywhere, so buying this dip may pay off in the long run.
I sold some at 170 and still have some bought at 155. I think there could be a NFLX like woosh but eventually it will become attractive like NFLX did to some investors/traders. It's not a super high PE stock and it makes money and is growing (not as much as expected) but eventually there will be some price where it's attractive. I don't think I'll reload the part I sold at these levels and will wait and see if it drops to the lower levels I prefer.
It's not a hard and fast rule I always stick with but 3 days sometimes they say after big news drops like from earnings to let things settle and the NFLX drop was something like that as well.
Big tech crushing it, but it’s a fairly uneven earnings season so far. MSFT popped off lows but has not done much since reporting. I’m surprised it hasn’t made a stronger move.
It's still stuck in that low 300s area I said could be resistance. It looked like it might break yesterday but no follow through today.
SP has closed above the 200DMA which is a good sign but Nasdaq still hasn't. It's pushing on the 200DMA but still hasn't retaken it and more importantly retake it and hold it.
It's not "stuck" at that range for any other reason than the overall market is still down. TA is good, but many times it's just a coincidence.
Have a sell order in at 3052.GOOGL - 20-1 stock split!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Alphabet reports big fourth-quarter beat; stock pops
Alphabet reported earnings after the bell. Here are the results.www.cnbc.com
You will get to that in about 20 years! As long as there isn't another split. :)
More on AMD:
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported a fantastic fourth quarter earnings result after the closing bell Tuesday.
Revenues increased 49% year-over-year (the sixth straight quarter of +45% YoY growth) and 12% quarter-over-quarter to $4.826 billion, beating the consensus analyst estimate of $4.523 billion, according to FactSet. In addition to the impressive top-line growth, fourth-quarter adjusted gross margins increased 560 basis points YoY and 190 basis points QoQ to about 50%, which is higher than the 49.4% analysts were looking for. This leads us to the bottom line. AMD increased adjusted earnings by share by 77% YoY and 26% QoQ to $0.92, well above analyst expectations of $0.76.
Shares of AMD popped 10% in after-hours trading.
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) reported a fantastic fourth quarter earnings result after the closing bell Tuesday.
Revenues increased 49% year-over-year (the sixth straight quarter of +45% YoY growth) and 12% quarter-over-quarter to $4.826 billion, beating the consensus analyst estimate of $4.523 billion, according to FactSet. In addition to the impressive top-line growth, fourth-quarter adjusted gross margins increased 560 basis points YoY and 190 basis points QoQ to about 50%, which is higher than the 49.4% analysts were looking for. This leads us to the bottom line. AMD increased adjusted earnings by share by 77% YoY and 26% QoQ to $0.92, well above analyst expectations of $0.76.
Shares of AMD popped 10% in after-hours trading.
I take the same approach; sold 1/3 in 8/2020 for $204, 1/3 in 1/2021 at $246. I kept the remaining 1/3, unfortunately….. but still in a gain position as my cost basis is $79 (5/2018) purchase. Just going to hold at this point.
Makes me feel great about all semis. The sector is still booming. Regardless of the supply chain, demand for semis just keeps growing and growing and growing.
Futures looking good for the Nasdaq. GOOGL earnings likely helping. May finally retake the 200DMA and close above it.
I’m long Google for life, at least unless and until the regulators break it up.
Just like AAPL and MSFT, take your GOOGL stock and put it on the hold forever shelf:
Alphabet Beats Q4 Expectations; Strength on All Fronts; Increasing FVE to $3,600; Shares Attractive (Morningstar)
Analyst Note | Updated Feb 01, 2022
Alphabet reported strong fourth-quarter 2021 results, driven by continuing growth in search advertising, further YouTube monetization thanks to the strengthening of its network effect moat source, and acceleration of Google cloud growth. Strong revenue also created operating leverage, widening margins more than expected. While we expect slower revenue growth this year, we project double-digit growth in YouTube and cloud to continue. We have modeled lower margins in 2022 given Alphabet’s continuing aggressive investment in its cloud offerings. We foresee a return of margin expansion in 2023 due to the steady increase in Google’s cloud recurring revenue. We have not made significant changes to our model, and after considering the time value of money, we have increased our fair value estimate 4% to $3,600. In addition, Alphabet announced that it plans to do a 20-for-1 stock split on July 15, 2022.
Total revenue for the quarter came in at $75.3 billion, up 32% from a year ago, driven by a 31% and 45% increase in Google services and Google cloud revenue, respectively. On the services front, continuing increases in brand advertising and marketing spending by retailers, with further improvement in travel and hospitality ad spending pushed search revenue up 36%. Total advertising revenue (including YouTube, up more than 25%) grew nearly 33% from last year. Google’s other revenue which includes hardware such as the Pixel, along with Google play and YouTube’s subscription revenue, increased 22%. Cloud segment revenue increased 45% from last year and the backlog increased 70% to $51 billion. Fourth-quarter total operating income of $21.9 billion represented a 29% operating margin, a 150 basis point improvement from last year, mainly due to Google services margin expansion which was driven by strong search and YouTube top line growth.
You can do both with them and other stocks. Core position which is essentially buy and hold forever and trade with other positions you take.
Another note: BTIG, RJ downgrade PYPL as expected. Let the downgrades and PT changes flush out and then it needs to settle. I think YoY comps will be an issue probably until the end of this year and likely early next year. Then hopefully after that, there should be a reset and the trajectory can be better again.
I am still watching PYPL. In the long run, I think the company will be fine, especially after the eBay saga is completed in Q3. The discount may become too good to pass up.
Someone did an analysis for Cramer and priced PYPL at $125 if it was valued similar to a normal bank. I guess that price is the logical floor, anything below is irrational. It's still growing very nicely and projected to grow at 15%+ for the rest of 2022. Missed expectations, but not a company in trouble.
SPACs still not doing well.
www.cnbc.com
The SPAC market starts 2022 with abysmal losses, abandoned deals
Companies that went public via SPACs have been among those worst affected by January's sell-off, while many sponsors wereforced to scrap their proposed deals,
I've said 120 area is place of support and it closed a gap from 2020 today. It takes you back to pre-pandemic levels for the stock too which I've mentioned some thought were possible for some stocks. Mind you it doesn't mean that support will hold. It would put the PE in the mid 20s (with the 4.60-4.75 guidance they gave) which isn't bad for PYPL historically assuming they get back on track after this year. They've proven you can't fully trust their guidance though.
Can't say I liked the comments from the CEO...inflation, supply chain, cross border volumes....I didn't hear any of these issues from V and MA. I suppose that's why those are my faves in the space. 4.5M fake accounts....what the hell is that about. Also don't like the fact that ebay is still dragging on them and they haven't given good clarity on when that should run off and not be an issue any more. Venmo coming online this year at AMZN hopefully should be a positive.
It's still a company that makes money and is growing just at a slower pace. It needs to get over these YoY comps hump and then reset and hopefully after that should be it. Problem is the CEO has either lousy insight into his business and/or done a poor job managing expectations. I'm willing to add but I'd want it to settle a bit. Overall market conditions matter too as always.
EDIT: Halftime panel all panned it and all very unhappy with the management, gave some positives but in general overall negative on the management.
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Another worthless 2 cents I'll add on PYPL. If you want to be contrarian you could take the amount of negativity surrounding it to signal an approach towards capitulation. The caveat I'd put on that though is when you have management that messes up like this it can elongate that downtrend more than you may think. I wouldn't expect a quick rebound in this unless some whale news or something like that came out. So if you're looking for spots to DCA or whatever, I tend to think you'll have time. I'm not a FOMO person anyhow but I feel like that won't be a problem with PYPL at present.
Another worthless two cents. Cramer said to buy them at 170 on Monday. Changed his mind and said to sell at 129 today. If you follow the pattern from his ARKK calls from last week- called to short them, they went up 15%. Said to buy them, they're back down, then it would clearly point to loading up on Paypal and hoping he never speaks about them again.
😂 another contrarian indicator then
I see him on tv but don’t really follow him or what he says too much. I’ve always liked the fast money traders or half time report guys for ideas and stuff. Shouldn’t really follow any of them blindly and do your own due diligence of what suits your goals and personal risk tolerances etc…
BIG Beat for QCOM across the board. Demand still out running supply. Strong forecast. Go semis!
Qualcomm beats expectations for revenue and earnings, sales up 30%
Qualcomm said it expected between $10.2 billion and $11 billion in sales in the upcoming quarter, ahead of analyst estimates of $9.6 billion.
Nasdaq just closed above the 200DMA but think the FB news will likely take it back down. AMZN next and last of the FAANG. Some were wondering if PYPL was a canary for possible AMZN issues, not for AWS but the retail. We'll see tomorrow after hours.
They jumped the shark with META. Its a niche market imo. Not seeing META as the future.
+1
Irrational reaction to a modest miss:
Here are the results.
Here are the results.
- Earnings per share: $3.67 vs $3.84 expected, according to a Refinitiv survey of analysts
- Revenue: $33.67 billion vs $33.4 billion expected, according to Refinitiv
- Daily Active Users (DAUs): 1.93 billion vs 1.95 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount
- Monthly Active Users (MAUs): 2.91 billion vs 2.95 billion expected by analysts, according to StreetAccount
- Average Revenue per User (ARPU): $11.38 expected by analysts, according to Street Account
It's down after hours. Mind you after hours is thin.BIG Beat for QCOM across the board. Demand still out running supply. Strong forecast. Go semis!
Qualcomm beats expectations for revenue and earnings, sales up 30%
Qualcomm said it expected between $10.2 billion and $11 billion in sales in the upcoming quarter, ahead of analyst estimates of $9.6 billion.
I think some of their earnings was already priced in off AMD and other semis doing well. It's exactly the scenario of what I thought might have been happening to PYPL the couple days before earnings and why I sold some at 170. It was benefiting from V and MA earnings and it was pushing up against resistance. They would have to be really good earnings for them to move higher to any large degree. They didn't even come close so all that side benefit and pricing in coming from V and MA came out and then some. Even if they did okay it still might have sold off on the earnings but not as bad as it did.
Earnings sometimes can be a backward looking indicator for current price action because of surrounding factors. It's why guidance is so important in addition to the earnings.
Stupid knee-jerk reaction by people that actually didn't read the report. LOL! Huge beats across the board and raised guidance.
Semis just keep rolling.
I expect Meta to rebound. If it opens down 20% tomorrow it’s going to be a bad day.
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