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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

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What happens moving forward will happen due to current facts, events, and actions of the current players. It is 100% divorced from 1999/2000 and 2008/2009. The situations are just completely different. Dwelling on the past will just bias people from focusing on the present.
Wow. No offense. But... Wow.
 

Ben Mezerich is turning his book about GME into a movie and I for one can't wait for it.
Will be interesting to see how Keith Gill is portrayed. Personally, I think he’s a criminal because: (1) if his conviction was so strong in GME why did he feel the need to mobilize the investing troops on Reddit to push the price higher other than insuring his own personal gains, or (2) if he wanted to share his eye-opening research on an under the radar stock in order to persuade retail investors to buy, he strikes me as an investment professional especially given his background. Stepping into the real world and just food for thought, what would people say if someone who owns a ton of AT&T stock got a hold of the microphone at the Super Bowl half-time show and told everyone in the stadium or watching to buy AT&T stock immediately for reasons X, Y, and Z? And what motivation would someone have in doing that? BTW, I understand hedge funds play plenty of games too. In the end, the SEC is nothing short of a train-wreck on all levels.
 
Wow. No offense. But... Wow.
^^^^^ I rest my case on the biases that some people are burdened with.

I hope your 40% crash prediction for the S&P actually happens. I will take a mortgage out on our house to plow more into the market. LOL!
 
Will be interesting to see how Keith Gill is portrayed. Personally, I think he’s a criminal because: (1) if his conviction was so strong in GME why did he feel the need to mobilize the investing troops on Reddit to push the price higher other than insuring his own personal gains, or (2) if he wanted to share his eye-opening research on an under the radar stock in order to persuade retail investors to buy, he strikes me as an investment professional especially given his background. Stepping into the real world and just food for thought, what would people say if someone who owns a ton of AT&T stock got a hold of the microphone at the Super Bowl half-time show and told everyone in the stadium or watching to buy AT&T stock immediately for reasons X, Y, and Z? And what motivation would someone have in doing that? BTW, I understand hedge funds play plenty of games too. In the end, the SEC is nothing short of a train-wreck on all levels.
I highly recommend the book. Gill was doing webcasts in his basement, basically screaming at the clouds for months about GME before all of this went down. At least according to the book, the investing troops formed pretty organically. Most wanting to make a quick buck, some wanting to "stick it to the man," etc. The book follows several different people who invested and talks about their why.
Amazon product ASIN B092VGQJ1F
 
I highly recommend the book. Gill was doing webcasts in his basement, basically screaming at the clouds for months about GME before all of this went down. At least according to the book, the investing troops formed pretty organically. Most wanting to make a quick buck, some wanting to "stick it to the man," etc. The book follows several different people who invested and talks about their why.
I’ll have to read it. All I need to ask is what was Keith Gill’s intent? Simple, his intent was to profit on GME by mobilizing the masses.
 
That is statement that is true of 90%+ of CNBC, Bloomberg guests.
I don’t entirely disagree, but those folks are employed within the industry. Gill was doing it purely for his own benefit and went off the rails which is why his employer got sued.
 
I’ll have to read it. All I need to ask is what was Keith Gill’s intent? Simple, his intent was to profit on GME by mobilizing the masses.
Read the book, I think it'll change your mind. He was essentially a bit of a crazy person doing webcasts to what amounted to blank space when he started. There were no masses.
 
I wonder if that feeds into that thing I saw yesterday morning and what you mentioned here too. If you want to be cynical about it, is FB trying to make themselves look worse than they are because of all the regulator heat they feel. SNAP not affected by Apple privacy settings, first time they make a profit, etc.. They're impervious where FB isn't and it costs FB 10B (which I think was overestimated but a good thing to be extra conservative)? Hmmm? Just like you say Snap, Tik Tok putting a beat down on FB....well then FB can say see we're not monopolistic giant...these other guys are eating our lunch. Don't know if it's true or not but like I said earlier I wouldn't rule it out.
I like the conspiracy theory. It may have partially backfired on Zuckerberg with the 20+% drop in stock price and likely lost quarter coming up.
 
I like the conspiracy theory. It may have partially backfired on Zuckerberg with the 20+% drop in stock price and likely lost quarter coming up.
I'm not saying it is or isn't the case but if it does anything to change the narrative on them with regulators that we're not the big bad behemoth (they are a behemoth) these other guys(tik tok etc..) are harsh competition for us and we're not a monopoly, it's a small and short term price to pay. It's good for a CEO to throw the kitchen sink and get everything out if there's bad news but that conf call and stories of MZ tearing or whatever in a company meeting just seems inordinately negative and has some level of fishiness to me but who knows.
 
Fun market. Yesterday, FB lost the most market cap in a single day. Today, AMZN came close to gaining the most market cap in a single day!

LOL.
 
MMM new 52 week low

PYPL so far holding that next area support in the 120s I mentioned

FB so far holding some moving average support
 
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Maybe it becomes part of prime membership and help add more value to it and their 20 buck hike, which I think would largely stick regardless.
Prime membership.....perhaps pair it with a different device to buy and use with any piece of equipment.
 
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Peloton shares skyrocketed in extended trading Friday on a report that Amazon has approached the connected fitness company about a potential deal.

Other potential suitors are circling, the Journal reported, adding that no deal is imminent and there may not be one at all.

The potential interest from outsiders comes as Peloton shares have tumbled in recent months and activist group Blackwells Capital, which has a less than 5% stake, has urged the company publicly to consider a sale.
 
I can't tell you how many times brokers said this to me right before the dot com bust. Demographics, baby boomers in peak earning years saving and investing for retirement all going into stocks. Then they didn't. Fear hit and that money ran for the hills.
Inflation rate was about half what it is now, while 10 year bond yields were nearly 3x.
 
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S&P500 P/E ratio post covid peaked in Dec 2020 at 39X. The S&P ended 2020 at 3756.

Current P/E ratio is 23X. S&P is currently 4477.
 
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Inflation rate was about half what it is now, while 10 year bond yields were nearly 3x.
+1
Back then, plenty of places to park money with a solid interest rate. It if Fed raises rates to 2% (which is not happening for a long time), saving and CDs rates will still blow and destroyed by even modest inflation.

Stocks or nothing (for quite a while).
 
Very reasonable valuation!
Your approaching the market far too rationally. I’ve been slowly buying mainly because I don’t think this market is going to run away from us. Take advantage of volatility but as we’ve seen Big Tech is far from ATHs so there is time to get in.
 
Your approaching the market far too rationally. I’ve been slowly buying mainly because I don’t think this market is going to run away from us. Take advantage of volatility but as we’ve seen Big Tech is far from ATHs so there is time to get in.
I'm buying as well. Bought new positions in 6 stocks and now working on UPRO and TQQQ. Also added a bunch to our E-Trade and already maxed our backdoor Roth IRAs for 2022.
 
I'm buying as well. Bought new positions in 6 stocks and now working on UPRO and TQQQ. Also added a bunch to our E-Trade and already maxed our backdoor Roth IRAs for 2022.
I’m buying small though. Only deployed about 15% of my cash.
 
New highs coming! :)

.....https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5z_CeOFQnKg&list=WL&index=15
 
S&P500 P/E ratio post covid peaked in Dec 2020 at 39X. The S&P ended 2020 at 3756.

Current P/E ratio is 23X. S&P is currently 4477.
Shiller PE ratio for the S&P 500:
37.18 +0.19 (0.52%)
4:00 PM EST, Fri Feb 4
Mean:16.91
Median:15.86
Min:4.78(Dec 1920)
Max:44.19(Dec 1999)

PE ratio is based on average inflation-adjusted earnings from the previous 10 years, known as the Cyclically Adjusted PE Ratio (CAPE Ratio) or Shiller PE Ratio.

See:. https://www.forbes.com/advisor/investing/shiller-pe-ratio/
 
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I’m buying small though. Only deployed about 15% of my cash.
Don't go too slow and miss out on this buying opportunity. I don't think it will happen on Thursday, but once inflation shows an inflection downwards, the market will be off to the races!
 
Don't go too slow and miss out on this buying opportunity. I don't think it will happen on Thursday, but once inflation shows an inflection downwards, the market will be off to the races!
I'm with Aldo on this...did some nibbling on some dips but being a bit more cautious in deploying all funds here. If If I miss out than so be it at this stage as Ill be happy all my other investments would have gone up anyway.

I'm concentrating on taxes right now anyway ha
 
S&P500 P/E ratio post covid peaked in Dec 2020 at 39X. The S&P ended 2020 at 3756.

Current P/E ratio is 23X. S&P is currently 4477.
Good write up from Fidelity on valuations and the recent downturn. P/E has already come down nicely for the S&P:


Interesting point:

More than one way for P/Es to compress
Although valuations have come down significantly, they remain slightly inflated when compared against a "fair value" for yields. According to my estimates, the stock market has gone from being 6 P/E points overvalued to just 2 points.

We are not out of the woods yet, but we are getting close. I think that we have now seen the worst of the price drawdown. The remainder of the valuation reset can happen more via growing earnings and less via falling stock prices (i.e., P/E ratios could decline even if prices stay flat, as long as earnings continue to grow).

But that doesn't mean that we are about to leap to new market highs. Even after mild drawdowns, it can take up to a year for the market to exceed the previous highs.

-----

And for you TA fans, chart of % of R3K stocks above their 50 day moving average (we are definitely in oversold territory):

timmer-feb-3-2022-chart1.png
 
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I'm with Aldo on this...did some nibbling on some dips but being a bit more cautious in deploying all funds here. If If I miss out than so be it at this stage as Ill be happy all my other investments would have gone up anyway.

I'm concentrating on taxes right now anyway ha
We will worry about taxes in late March! :)
 
Nike mentioned too now for PTON. I had mentioned them and LULU earlier in the thread.

The Financial Times separately reported that sneaker maker Nike is evaluating a bid. The talks are preliminary, it said, and Nike has not spoken with Peloton.

 
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Data from Vanguard Group shows that among their retail clients ages 65 through 74, 17% have a whopping 98% or more of their portfolios in stocks, The Wall Street Journal reports. The outlet also reports that 40% of Fidelity 401(k )investors aged 60 through 69 hold 67% of more of their portfolios in stocks.

I don’t think it that unusual. I trade in and out of the market and might be in the market 70% stocks at one time but 50% of the time might be at 20%. My siblings use financial advisors to manage their accounts and they are in the market 70% stocks the last few years, one managed by Fidelity, and they live off their pension and social security. These investors that hold a substantial amount in stocks probably are the 1-5% and the assets are their inheritance for the kids. My sister in law doesn’t care about the performance since she said it will all go to the kids, already 5 million, how much will it be in 20 years?
 
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