Without stating the obvious, the crazy swings indicate heavy buying and selling, meaning it’s not about how much money is still out there. If it was, we would start a measured climb to ATHs. I’m getting the sense there is way more day trading going on and using algorithmic trading as a guide. Put it this way - I rarely ever day trade, yet in the last week I day/swing traded more than the previous two years.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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All that cash came out of FB, people were looking for a safer place to put it. Not much to do with it besides finding other stocks.
Patience to take advantage of the LBs and CLs, especially when their emotions are redlining.
I got out of business school in ‘83 so was working and investing for 15 or so years before dot.com. The stories of limo drivers and barbers giving stock tips was totally true—right before it crashed. To me, there are some parallels with dot.com and the Covid recovery: the feeling by many that it could only go up, easy money, etc. There were some differences too, but there always are.
There was indeed a lost decade for many, even if you were not overly speculative. The lessons of diversification, fundamental analysis, and long term investing, avoiding leverage, avoiding investing in products you don’t understand, etc. resonated with me and still do.
I lived through the dot com era. It was a wild ride up, buying all the IPO's on the day they went public, no matter what price they opened up at, and still doubled or tripled my money in a day or two. Anytime the market dipped, it was a signal to buy, until the dips continued and continued. Before you could (or should have) realize the market was crashing, profits disintegrated and the losses mounted (was buying on lots of margin). One prime example was Juniper, bought 200 shares on the first day it traded (total cost 19k). It ran, split, ran again, split again. My 200 shares became either 800 or 1600, I forget, and my 19k ran to 300k, in less than 6 months. Talking heads were calling for NASDAQ to 10,000 (it wasn't 3000 at that time) and the DOW to 50,000 (it was nowhere near that number). Prudence gave in to greed and pigs (myself included) were slaughtered. People much smarter and more market savvy than me lost millions. The only consolation, and it was a valid consolation, was that I went through a divorce not long after and there was less for her to claim!!
Love the dot com era or error. Remember when companies would go up 20% because they added dot com to their name. Was too young and broke to be in the market during that period. Got very lucky. My big one was the financial crisis/housing bubble in 08. Know a lot of guys losing a lot of money during that time.
2008/2009 made me into the bull I am today. Stick to the plan, keep buying, and things will turn out fine. Also, I learned that my industry is essentially immune to the economic. Pharma didn't even hit a road bump during this crisis.
Sounds like it might have been the best education you could have gotten. I remember my 401k increasing more in a day than I made in a year. Of course, the reverse also became true.
I'm just thinking aloud here a bit but I think participants realized the market had gotten too expensive, especially with interest rates rising, yet there is still no where else to put their money.
So the money is out there but so is a concern of the market being too expensive. The push and the pull.
Now maybe that does point to an unhealthy market, certainly jives with the volatility, but I think in the end it will keep the market afloat.
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In hindsight it was very helpful, I learned the lesson with relatively small amounts.
I also remember many fellow consultants leaving our firm for start ups and "getting options". Telling stories about how they would be retired in a few years. A couple of them did very well but most just worked for peanuts.
Market mixed this morning. Sold 2/3 of the AMZN I bought. Sold at just slightly over 3200. That's just around the mid point of the trading range I mentioned I saw it in. I'll keep the last bit to see if it could get to the top of that trading range but not confident it will in the short term so as I do often, I'll take some off the table.
CLX getting whacked on missing earnings and another revised guidance down. I mentioned I could see them have similar issues to what KMB mentioned and they did have issues with rising input costs. Down about 14-15% in the premarket and around 140. I'd be interested possibly in this name and have been watching and waiting for the pandemic balloon to deflate fully. I think it needs to be in the low 100s area and preferably below which seems like a lot of downside but with their guidance and a reasonable multiple that's where you get.
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I wonder if that feeds into that thing I saw yesterday morning and what you mentioned here too. If you want to be cynical about it, is FB trying to make themselves look worse than they are because of all the regulator heat they feel. SNAP not affected by Apple privacy settings, first time they make a profit, etc.. They're impervious where FB isn't and it costs FB 10B (which I think was overestimated but a good thing to be extra conservative)? Hmmm? Just like you say Snap, Tik Tok putting a beat down on FB....well then FB can say see we're not monopolistic giant...these other guys are eating our lunch. Don't know if it's true or not but like I said earlier I wouldn't rule it out.
I wouldn’t put anything past Zuckerberg and FB has always been in regulator cross-hairs. I think there is a possibility that they made a strategic short-term decision to push certain narratives in order to preserve long-term objectives such as development of the metaverse without regulatory overhang. Hard to say what’s really going on because the quarter was so shocking.
Also Cramer- “short ARKK, no wait, buy ARKK, check that, sell ARKK.” He is right, we need more balanced, level headed behavior, like this…
Clearly someone had a chat with Stankey following his last CNBC visit because his AT&T interview is well-scripted and he’s staying on task.
US January Non-farm Payrolls post massive beat +467,000 actual vs. +150,000 expected
How can they be so far off with their projections?
How can they be so far off with their projections?
Keep focused on those semis!
www.cnbc.com
Chip giants are ramping up spending by the billions as semiconductor demand booms
TSMC, Intel and Samsung are all planning to make significant investments into semiconductor manufacturing this year.
I think some were expecting possible negative numbers on that because of Omicron. Strength like that means Fed will be on the rate raising path for sure.
Morningstar still bullish on T. FMV = $35
Undervalued AT&T Is on the Right Path
AT&T's dividends will be smaller, but Morningstar's analyst says the refocus on the telecom business should reward patient investors.
Powell knows the truth about inflation.....raising rates isn't going to do much. The vast majority of inflation is due to supply chain issues, reopening, and the lack of investment in energy. This is not an overheated economy issue. Talk tough, make Biden and the pols happy, but Fed action is going to miss expectations.
Inflation will start coming down naturally within a few months. No biggie.
I can't tell you how many times brokers said this to me right before the dot com bust. Demographics, baby boomers in peak earning years saving and investing for retirement all going into stocks. Then they didn't. Fear hit and that money ran for the hills.
The dot.com bust was a long time ago and a very different situation. Time for folks to move on.
It’s what crypto/NFT bulls are saying now. Millennials are set to inherit close to $70 trillion in the next two decades. “The greatest transfer of wealth we’ve ever seen.” The theory is millennials are more likely to put that money into crypto than previous generations.
I hope you are right. But it would not be proper risk management for me to not prepare like you are wrong and to make the same mistakes I did then. I no longer have the same time frame to recover before I need to start living off investments.
American Dream megamall nearly empties its reserves to make a bond payment
The American Dream megamall in New Jersey, crippled by construction delays and stalled store openings, is running out of money.
Amazon's profit engines are humming, cushioning the blow from the retail slowdown
Amazon reported better-than-expected revenue in its cloud computing division and showed that its ad business is approaching $10 billion a quarter.
Earning season is pretty much over so I allocated more into cash but kept a few stocks. I was tempted to keep all the stocks that I had since they are still significantly below their highs but this might be due to the price adjustment from the projected interest rate increases. Will be ready to buy on the next dip. Just going back to my old routine of buying at the dips and selling during earnings.
What happens moving forward will happen due to current facts, events, and actions of the current players. It is 100% divorced from 1999/2000 and 2008/2009. The situations are just completely different. Dwelling on the past will just bias people from focusing on the present.
Of the big 7 companies.....5 good, 1 bad, 1 still to go (NVDA). Pretty damn good!
History has a way of repeating itself. Human nature. We have a generation of novice investors who will have to learn for themselves. The business cycle has not gone away. It all comes down to the fundamentals. 13 straight positive years for NASDAQ screams a need for a correction. It is healthy as capital is being misallocated.
Circumstances may be different but emotion and greed never change. Its ok to be bullish and prudent at the same time.
^^^^^ Definitely agree on emotion and greed. At the end of the day, people are people.
It’s interesting that majority of the investors on this board have only been involved in the 2008 crash and maybe, the dot.com, but at that time they didn’t have much capital to be really hurt. The period 2009-2021 has been pretty much only a positive ride. I also noticed that older investors like myself, 65 years old, are more conservative and cautious due to the size of their assets and probably because they experienced several different types of crashes. They are never the same.
I think we are at least 50% thru the NASDAQ correction or even 70%. I would be wary of any NASDAQ stock over 40 PE. FB was an anomaly and wonder why no earlier info was circulated.
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While circumstances may be different, there is no way at age 55 that I should be investing the same way I was at 25, 35, or 45. Circumstance may change, but what doesn't change is prudent risk management. I am still not where I need to be on the efficient portfolio frontier, but I am certainly a lot closer than I was during .com.
At 65, regardless of your past experience, you should be much more cautious than folks with long time horizons.
LOL. Just essentially said the same thing! ^^^^^
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