OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Like I said above I have a PNC account. They closed the branch in my town down to just a “convenience center” or something, there’s no cash on hand there, they want everything done with ATMs and their website/app. The problem is, their mobile services are awful compared to SoFi. Same with Bank of America. Their branches are almost by appointment only. If I’m going to have to do everything online, I want to use the bank that has the best online product and from my experience that is SoFi.
Blackrock upped it's stake in SOFI by 63% in the 4th qtr. They now own 22 million shares.
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I just started buying some financials since they are so beaten down and offer nice dividends for protection. Seems clear that by year end rates will be higher. A little risky without knowing exactly how the sanctions will effect the banking system. Im also looking at buying more ABNB. This conflict will likely impact tourism in certain regions so ABNB may be the beneficiary.
Agree they are backing off covid restrictions, but its only happening because of the upcoming election. They realize all their positions are losers so they will say anything to get elected.
If they happen to stay in power they will go right back to their totalitarian ways. I don't believe anything politicians say, I judge them by what they do.
politicians will play politics. But they do have the numbers behind them. All the COVID #s are way down.
FYI - Cramer and his charity trust team continue to buy MS, Wells, and GS (and did so yesterday).
I bought GS too. Again, not entirely sure how this all plays out but the financials are too cheap plus Wall Street always seems to find a way no matter what disaster is pending.
Did well with my SBLK puts. Not the first trade, which I bought on Friday, thinking Monday was March 1st, ie the ex dividend date. Got out of that one pretty much even.
But the puts I bought Monday and sold Tuesday I was up 65-ish%.
A crumb trade, but even as a crumb trade, with that one day return, it was a good one.
I think the move was based on my thesis that it would sell off on the ex date, and not just a typical move of a volatile stock.
But the puts I bought Monday and sold Tuesday I was up 65-ish%.
A crumb trade, but even as a crumb trade, with that one day return, it was a good one.
I think the move was based on my thesis that it would sell off on the ex date, and not just a typical move of a volatile stock.
I think it's just a risk off mentality but I think the banking system is fine. You can never say anything 100% but I don't expect systemic risk similar to the crash. Leverage is lower, capital requirements are higher and the banks are stress tested for crazy scenarios so you'd think all that would prevent any perilous situations.
European banks are more exposed than US ones and even the big ones there should be okay. The global banks like C or JPM are probably more exposed than other US banks but still think as a whole the system should be fine. It's not always direct exposure to an issue or an event, it could be 2 or 3 dominoes further up the chain where the counter party risk reverberates back to you. That's where some of the uncertainty can lie but again I think things should be fine. Possibly having to set aside reserves might have an effect on near term profitability at some banks.
Mind you I say this as someone where this sector was the one place I was burned in my years of trading so that's never left me and is always somewhere lurking in my subconscious. So there's always at least a little subconscious trepidation in there but I think what I just said is a more rational outlook.
Off course it is fine. Russia has the same sized economy of NY state. As usual, people are projecting their fears based on emotions, not facts.
Saw on CNBC this morning that the US, Europe, and someone else who I forget, account for 35% of China's exports.
Russia accounts for 2%.
I also saw Russia's economy is the same as the State of NY.
They are just not a big player economically, so in many ways it's easy to cut them off.
But they have a ton of natural resources. They are the 2nd biggest producer of both Oil and Nat Gas(US is tops on both lists) and like the US and Europe, China is going to be reluctant to give that up.
FYI - some news on Citi:
Citigroup sets new profitability targets in bid to win over investors
Nothing wrong with a well-executed crumb trade. I’ve made a bunch lately and the returns add up over time.
The turnaround seems to be taking forever but hopefully this offers hope. Heck, it’s the 3rd largest bank in the US and has been in the penalty box for too long. At some point this year, absent a catastrophe, the financials will go on a run.
Since they kicked Jamie Dimon to the curb a long while ago they haven't been the same. I'd prefer other banks over them including the one Dimon actually runs. The management changes over and over but the results are never markedly better if at all.
Good read:
www.cnbc.com
Markets have fully priced in a rate increase at the March 15-16 meeting but have decreased expectations for the rest of the year since the Ukraine war began, according to CME group data. Traders are now pricing in five quarter-percentage-point increases that would take the benchmark federal funds rate from its current range of 0%-0.25% to 1.25%-1.5%.
Fed Chair Powell notes 'highly uncertain' Ukraine impact, but says rate hikes are still coming
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell still sees rate hikes coming but noted that the Russia-Ukraine war has injected uncertainty into the outlook.
Markets have fully priced in a rate increase at the March 15-16 meeting but have decreased expectations for the rest of the year since the Ukraine war began, according to CME group data. Traders are now pricing in five quarter-percentage-point increases that would take the benchmark federal funds rate from its current range of 0%-0.25% to 1.25%-1.5%.
My financial plays are just via my value funds and ETFs. Don't know enough about specific banks to choose stocks. With that in mind, I see almost universal support for Wells and strong support for GS and MS. JPM seems a bit more mixed with analysts.
China isn’t going to get involved has too much to lose. But Putin doesn’t care how many casualties there are and is just starting his rampage.
Putin's brutal record in Chechnya and Syria is ominous for Ukraine
Do those fights preview the present war?
theweek.com
The second Chechen war began in 1999. It was then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's war, and it was to the death. A "they make a desert and call it peace" kind of war. The Chechen capital of Grozny — already damaged by the first war — was left as a hole in a map, called the most destroyed city on the planet by the United Nations. Almost nothing was left standing, nearly no one spared.
As many as 250,000 civilians were killed in the combined Chechen wars, along with many thousands more combatants on both sides. Reports of rape, arson, torture, and other crimes by Russian soldiers were widespread — and cast as a wholly necessary evil by those forces. "Without bespredel [no limits warfare], we'll get nowhere in Chechnya," a 21-year-old Russian conscript told the Los Angeles Times in 2000. "We have to be cruel to them. Otherwise, we'll achieve nothing."
There's also evidence of cluster bombs being employed. These are larger bombs that contain smaller explosive munitions inside; when the larger shell detonates, the smaller bombs spread with no control over where they will land. They're banned by international treaty largely because they typically cause more civilian casualties than other bombs, though neither Russia nor the United States have signed that pact.
Russia again used cluster bombs in Syria, a war it joined in 2015, a war Putin, now president, fought largely through the air, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's troops providing ground forces.
The bombing was not indiscriminate. It was worse: Hospitals were considered legitimate targets by Russian commanders. Even civilians whose only concern was the safety of others — rescue workers called the White Helmets because of the hardhats they wore — were killed while they were responding to earlier attacks.
I believe the casualties for the Syrian War is over 380,000. In the Soviet Afghan war, between 560,000-2 million people were killed. Unless Ukraine surrender in the near future, expect casualties in the hundred of thousands.
Ford will split EVs and legacy autos into separate units as it spends $50 billion on electric vehicles
Ford expects the move to streamline its electric vehicle business and maximize profits. "We're going all in," Ford CEO Jim Farley said.
Apples and oranges. And those conflicts weren't being streamed live to the world.China isn’t going to get involved has too much to lose. But Putin doesn’t care how many casualties there are and is just starting his rampage.
Putin's brutal record in Chechnya and Syria is ominous for Ukraine
Do those fights preview the present war?
The second Chechen war began in 1999. It was then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's war, and it was to the death. A "they make a desert and call it peace" kind of war. The Chechen capital of Grozny — already damaged by the first war — was left as a hole in a map, called the most destroyed city on the planet by the United Nations. Almost nothing was left standing, nearly no one spared.
As many as 250,000 civilians were killed in the combined Chechen wars, along with many thousands more combatants on both sides. Reports of rape, arson, torture, and other crimes by Russian soldiers were widespread — and cast as a wholly necessary evil by those forces. "Without bespredel [no limits warfare], we'll get nowhere in Chechnya," a 21-year-old Russian conscript told the Los Angeles Times in 2000. "We have to be cruel to them. Otherwise, we'll achieve nothing."
There's also evidence of cluster bombs being employed. These are larger bombs that contain smaller explosive munitions inside; when the larger shell detonates, the smaller bombs spread with no control over where they will land. They're banned by international treaty largely because they typically cause more civilian casualties than other bombs, though neither Russia nor the United States have signed that pact.
Russia again used cluster bombs in Syria, a war it joined in 2015, a war Putin, now president, fought largely through the air, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's troops providing ground forces.
The bombing was not indiscriminate. It was worse: Hospitals were considered legitimate targets by Russian commanders. Even civilians whose only concern was the safety of others — rescue workers called the White Helmets because of the hardhats they wore — were killed while they were responding to earlier attacks.
I believe the casualties for the Syrian War is over 380,000. In the Soviet Afghan war, between 560,000-2 million people were killed. Unless Ukraine surrender in the near future, expect casualties in the hundred of thousands.
Nice capitulation by a legacy ICE company that the 2 businesses can't coexist well. Elon has been saying this for years. Buy TSLA.Ford will split EVs and legacy autos into separate units as it spends $50 billion on electric vehicles
Ford expects the move to streamline its electric vehicle business and maximize profits. "We're going all in," Ford CEO Jim Farley said.
Not to dispute anything here, I think it's pretty clear there is no limit to the damage Putin is willing to inflict to get what he wants.China isn’t going to get involved has too much to lose. But Putin doesn’t care how many casualties there are and is just starting his rampage.
Putin's brutal record in Chechnya and Syria is ominous for Ukraine
Do those fights preview the present war?
The second Chechen war began in 1999. It was then-Prime Minister Vladimir Putin's war, and it was to the death. A "they make a desert and call it peace" kind of war. The Chechen capital of Grozny — already damaged by the first war — was left as a hole in a map, called the most destroyed city on the planet by the United Nations. Almost nothing was left standing, nearly no one spared.
As many as 250,000 civilians were killed in the combined Chechen wars, along with many thousands more combatants on both sides. Reports of rape, arson, torture, and other crimes by Russian soldiers were widespread — and cast as a wholly necessary evil by those forces. "Without bespredel [no limits warfare], we'll get nowhere in Chechnya," a 21-year-old Russian conscript told the Los Angeles Times in 2000. "We have to be cruel to them. Otherwise, we'll achieve nothing."
There's also evidence of cluster bombs being employed. These are larger bombs that contain smaller explosive munitions inside; when the larger shell detonates, the smaller bombs spread with no control over where they will land. They're banned by international treaty largely because they typically cause more civilian casualties than other bombs, though neither Russia nor the United States have signed that pact.
Russia again used cluster bombs in Syria, a war it joined in 2015, a war Putin, now president, fought largely through the air, with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's troops providing ground forces.
The bombing was not indiscriminate. It was worse: Hospitals were considered legitimate targets by Russian commanders. Even civilians whose only concern was the safety of others — rescue workers called the White Helmets because of the hardhats they wore — were killed while they were responding to earlier attacks.
I believe the casualties for the Syrian War is over 380,000. In the Soviet Afghan war, between 560,000-2 million people were killed. Unless Ukraine surrender in the near future, expect casualties in the hundred of thousands.
But this time the world is all over it and the push back is significant. Including many of his own people. And apparently some of his own soldiers. I don't think the world, again including his own people, is going to let this get to Chechnya levels. .
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CRM in the red at the open. Don't know if it'll turn later but I've said I think rallies should still be sold imo. High PE stocks aren't loved right now regardless of how good they may be doing.
No matter how you slice it this market is a mess except for oil/commodities and defense stocks. The tech trade seems to be going nowhere with interest rate hikes looming, and all that money retail traders made during the COVID run-up has evaporated. I don’t know about you guys but most of my positions that are in the solidly in the green were pre-COVID. Most of my COVID run-up positions that I didn’t sell are basically flat or in the red. I’ve got plenty of cash and more coming this week with bonus hitting. Any good ideas for next 6 months?
"Russia appears to have officially declared cyberwar on the US, taking what’s been described as preliminary steps at crippling its banking system and possibly other major industries, The Post has learned.
The big US banks — JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs — are under constant attacks by cyber criminals looking to disrupt operations and steal client information. The usual suspects are most often located in Iran, China and, of course, Russia.
Bank executives tell The Post they’ve spent billions of dollars annually to protect against cyber criminals, but they say the recent wave of attacks is different. Sources describe them as a subtle but intensified assault on banks’ technological infrastructure that began after the sanctions over Ukraine were announced."
nypost.com
They WERE ready! But this is different!
The big US banks — JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs — are under constant attacks by cyber criminals looking to disrupt operations and steal client information. The usual suspects are most often located in Iran, China and, of course, Russia.
Bank executives tell The Post they’ve spent billions of dollars annually to protect against cyber criminals, but they say the recent wave of attacks is different. Sources describe them as a subtle but intensified assault on banks’ technological infrastructure that began after the sanctions over Ukraine were announced."
Russian cyber attacks against US banks increasing: sources
Bank executives tell the Post they’ve spent billions of dollars annually to protect against cyber criminals, but they say the recent wave of attacks is different.
nypost.com
They WERE ready! But this is different!
Call me crazy but I don’t lose sleep over Russian cyberattacks. US banks have been prepared for moments like this for decades. I’d be more concerned that they target smaller financial players or exchanges."Russia appears to have officially declared cyberwar on the US, taking what’s been described as preliminary steps at crippling its banking system and possibly other major industries, The Post has learned.
The big US banks — JP Morgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs — are under constant attacks by cyber criminals looking to disrupt operations and steal client information. The usual suspects are most often located in Iran, China and, of course, Russia.
Bank executives tell The Post they’ve spent billions of dollars annually to protect against cyber criminals, but they say the recent wave of attacks is different. Sources describe them as a subtle but intensified assault on banks’ technological infrastructure that began after the sanctions over Ukraine were announced."
Russian cyber attacks against US banks increasing: sources
Bank executives tell the Post they’ve spent billions of dollars annually to protect against cyber criminals, but they say the recent wave of attacks is different.
They WERE ready! But this is different!
The "threat" of crippling cyberattacks is becoming similar to the threat of Y2K.
Sticking to the plan:
In prepared remarks for his testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, Powell reiterated the core Fed narrative that high inflation and an "extremely tight" labor market warrant higher interest rates.
Powell will testify before U.S. lawmakers at 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT).
"It's in line with what was expected," said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
"If anything, I thought he was comforting and sober about the realities of the geopolitical risks and that the Fed would be nimble and effectively tactical about how they move forward and take everything into account versus just moving ahead with some predetermined plan."
Traders now see a 5% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting and 95% probability of 25 basis point hike. [IRPR]
In prepared remarks for his testimony to the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, Powell reiterated the core Fed narrative that high inflation and an "extremely tight" labor market warrant higher interest rates.
Powell will testify before U.S. lawmakers at 10 a.m. ET (1500 GMT).
"It's in line with what was expected," said Thomas Hayes, managing member at Great Hill Capital LLC in New York.
"If anything, I thought he was comforting and sober about the realities of the geopolitical risks and that the Fed would be nimble and effectively tactical about how they move forward and take everything into account versus just moving ahead with some predetermined plan."
Traders now see a 5% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike by the Fed at its March meeting and 95% probability of 25 basis point hike. [IRPR]
They did shut down that pipeline. If they do that on a bigger scale that would def be an issue.
Let's be honest, anything less than 4 rate hikes this year would be frowned upon by the market, and rightfully so.
Obviously don't want 8, but if we see 1 or 2 rate hikes this year, that is a really bad sign.
If they were to go 50 basis points in March the market would probably be down for a couple days, and then bounce right back.
Obviously don't want 8, but if we see 1 or 2 rate hikes this year, that is a really bad sign.
If they were to go 50 basis points in March the market would probably be down for a couple days, and then bounce right back.
Powell simply waited too long to tighten. Massive miscalculation and the “transitory” narrative was flat-out wrong.
Let's face it, Russia knows we can shut down their whole country. Our cyber abilities don't get publicized but we are far more advanced than people realize.
