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OT: Stock and Investment Talk

Not to mention Russia has struggled mightily in Ukraine. If they can somehow "win" in Ukraine they will be in no position to move on to other countries. They can barely keep supply lines going now. This campaign has exposed Russia as nowhere near the military power that they once were.

The idea that Poland or some other Nato country is next is laughable at this point.
By the way, check out the map in the video. Russia is barely in the country, perhaps 5-10%?

 
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TGT earnings coming up too. I've mentioned the double top a couple times and on Friday I did think it came near a potential at least short term bottom area where it bounced off. I'm probably going to be too chicken to get into it but wonder if it might not have a quick relief rally if earnings are good. Overall market sentiment tomorrow will matter too though. LOW earnings were very good but the reaction evaporated rather quickly as well.
Well there you go, up 13% in the pre market on earnings.

 
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Re: the re-opening trade, What’s shocking is how the COVID hysteria/narrative seems to have disappeared overnight. If true, I need buy more ABNB and get back into MAR. Is COVID basically sidelined until next Winter?
I think COVID related issues are gone essentially unless some new variant shows up. Russia/Ukraine can bring short term headline risk issues but I don't think much more than that. If anything I think it might bring some opportunities for names that have exposure Russia/Ukraine. I've been keeping my eye on some names to see if they drop enough. Said this a few times, imo the long term issues are inflation and rates and what happens there.
 

Normally neutral Switzerland freezing Russian assets and Finland/Sweden considering NATO.
 
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Not to mention Russia has struggled mightily in Ukraine. If they can somehow "win" in Ukraine they will be in no position to move on to other countries. They can barely keep supply lines going now. This campaign has exposed Russia as nowhere near the military power that they once were.

The idea that Poland or some other Nato country is next is laughable at this point.

We are only six days into the war and Russia has barely used missile and planes. That could change at any time.
 
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Russia has shown restraint or they just never thought Ukrainians would fight this hard. Think the next few days will get very bloody. Hope they cut a deal soon.

A deal would be great, but don't see any signs of it yet. Every action from both Russia and the West has been to escalate the conflict.
 
Anyone have thoughts on whether this crisis helps or hurts the case for BTC? I know BTC is up during the crisis for obvious reasons, but does that ultimately cause world leaders to reconsider BTC because it hurts their ability to sanction/control.
 

Normally neutral Switzerland freezing Russian assets and Finland/Sweden considering NATO.
Swiss now freezing? Wow. Those money lovers stayed neutral in WW2.
 
Russia has shown restraint or they just never thought Ukrainians would fight this hard. Think the next few days will get very bloody. Hope they cut a deal soon.
Everyday the Russia economy and power collapses more and more. The developed world is against them and they are being destroyed without any military intervention. Amazing to see! The ruble is now worth less than a penny. LOL!
 
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Anyone have thoughts on whether this crisis helps or hurts the case for BTC? I know BTC is up during the crisis for obvious reasons, but does that ultimately cause world leaders to reconsider BTC because it hurts their ability to sanction/control.
The market seems to be speaking rather clearly on this question. BTC/crypto's use case is being confirmed for all to see.
 
Target is the best big retailer out there today. Performance is a good indicator of a strong economy.
I’m a big fan of Walmart too and find myself shopping there more and more with inflation at traditional food stores. There is a new Walmart in my area so it’s not the dilapidated mess you tend to think of. Produce/fruit in particular are good quality.
 
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The market seems to be speaking rather clearly on this question. BTC/crypto's use case is being confirmed for all to see.
Yeah, but ultimately you are talking about the wrong part of the market. If Russia can use BTC/crypto to circumvent sanctions and a plummeting ruble, do you think this strengthens the case with anyone other than speculators and war criminals? I think the more attention BTC gets in this scenario, the more it highlights the negative case for BTC. But, in the end I could be completely wrong. However, I can’t imagine world leaders/regulators finding BTC particularly helpful under the circumstances.
 
I’m a big fan of Walmart too and find myself shopping there more and more with inflation at traditional food stores. There is a new Walmart in my area so it’s not the dilapidated mess you tend to think of. Produce/fruit in particular are good quality.
Walmart has definitely won big diving into the produce/grocery space. That should be a strong business for a long, long time.
 
Yeah, but ultimately you are talking about the wrong part of the market. If Russia can use BTC/crypto to circumvent sanctions and a plummeting ruble, do you think this strengthens the case with anyone other than speculators and war criminals? I think the more attention BTC gets in this scenario, the more it highlights the negative case for BTC. But, in the end I could be completely wrong. However, I can’t imagine world leaders/regulators finding BTC particularly helpful under the circumstances.
I think it is more about the innocent Russian people using it, not the gov.
 
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Target is the best big retailer out there today. Performance is a good indicator of a strong economy.
I like them and WMT and I think their earnings were solid nothing great and guidance was good. Like I mentioned, I think it had potential for a relief rally at least considering it's fall from a double top. It's gone above that neckline area of the formation but that vicinity is where I think there might be some resistance. I'm not so sure the rally will last though...other companies have had good and stronger earnings and those rallies faded over time.
 
Walmart has definitely won big diving into the produce/grocery space. That should be a strong business for a long, long time.
It's not just grocery, although I think they have like 20% ish market share there give or take IIRC. It's the online biz that has been growing solidly to good for them.
 
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It's not just grocery, although I think they have like 20% ish market share there give or take IIRC. It's the online biz that has been growing solidly to good for them.
I order from WMT online a few times a month. As for groceries, I think I saw a chart showing that they are the biggest "grocery" business in the nation. Is that true? Crazy stat, but I guess it helps to be nationwide. Big traditional grocery businesses are regional.
 
I order from WMT online a few times a month. As for groceries, I think I saw a chart showing that they are the biggest "grocery" business in the nation. Is that true? Crazy stat, but I guess it helps to be nationwide. Big traditional grocery businesses are regional.
They do have the largest market share...like I said something around 20% ish (say 18-25). I think Kroger is the next largest and they're like in the low double digits somewhere.

I own WMT and TGT too as long term holds but I trade them too. KR I've just traded in the past but don't own.
 
COST, WMT, HD, KR, DLT, DLTR all up at the open...guessing because of TGT. Defense still on the rise LMT, NOC, RTX. I think LMT, NOC got awarded some satellite imagery or communication contract from the gov't the other day.
 
Russia has shown restraint or they just never thought Ukrainians would fight this hard. Think the next few days will get very bloody. Hope they cut a deal soon.
There have been more civilian strikes. Missiles landing outside Kharkiv regional administration building and strikes on residences in Kherson (south Uke). There are three big, miles long convoys on the way. There is talk of commencing fighting in the western regions (more difficult) and specifically near border with Poland (to block arms coming in).

Russian military so far has been embarrassing for Putin - abandoned vehicles (no fuel) all over the place. A lot of the equipment is old (70s/80s old) with Soviet radios in them. Guys are wearing helmets that look more WWII than anything recent. I saw a vid were Ukrainians taunted a Russian tank to turn around and it did. I think that vibe is going to change. Putin loves Kiev as the foundation of ancient Russian cities and I don't think he wants to level it yet but it does feel like things are about to get uglier









 
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Financials are looking cheap. The Russian economy is smaller than that of NY. Time to buy JPM? WFC? I bought C a few months back and it’s dropped due to potential Russian exposure - although apparently that’s a measly 0.3% of assets.
 
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Financials are looking cheap. The Russian economy is smaller than that of NY. Time to buy JPM? WFC? I bought C a few months back and it’s dropped due to potential Russian exposure - although apparently that’s a measly 0.3% of assets.
PEP, MCD, PM are some names that have taken a little hit because of exposure to Russia. I'd be interested in trading any of them if they went down enough. I own PEP and MCD.

edit: Should add I still see relative weakness in staples something I've mentioned before. It might make them more attractive valuations compared to what they have been.
 
Another off-the-beaten path spec stock that I always found intriguing and is down 62% from highs = any thoughts on ME (23andme)?
 

Ukrainians have joined a gruesome but not-so-exclusive club — victims of unprovoked Russian military attacks and reported war crimes. The Syrian opposition, which has been attacked by Russian forces for almost seven years, has some advice for Ukrainians on surviving Russian military assaults and fighting invading Russian soldiers. They say that each day Ukrainians resist Russian aggression and fight for their homeland is a victory against Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The Syrian opposition is standing in solidarity with Ukrainians, as it did in 2014, when Russia first invaded Ukraine. After Putin took his first chunk of Ukraine by force when he invaded eastern Ukraine and annexed Crimea, he deployed the Russian military to help the Bashar al-Assad regime, Iran and Hezbollah kill civilians rallying for freedom and democracy in Syria. As the West stood by, Russia began a brutal campaign of reported war crimes and targeting civilians for cruel death that is still ongoing today.
Abdul-Jabbar Akaidi, a former colonel in Assad’s army who defected in 2012 and joined the opposition, has been fighting Russian invaders for seven years and studying their tactics. He was the commander of the Revolutionary Military Council and a general in the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo while Russia, Assad and Iran carpet-bombed the city and starved its people. I asked him what advice he has for Ukrainians trying to repel invading Russian troops.


First of all, I want to say that it is not advice that our Ukrainian brothers and sisters need from us; it is support from the West,” he told me. “But to begin my advice, I would say to not rely on the international community, to not rely on the United States, because they gave Putin a blank check and an open hand in Syria.”
The international community has earned its distrust among Syrians. Despite years of reports compiling evidence that the Russian militaryand Russian mercenary contractors were working with Assad to commit war crimes against Syrian civilians, there has been no accountability for Putin or his generals. Their alliance is very relevant today in Ukraine.
Assad was the first world leader to celebrate Putin’s invasion of Ukraine last week. Syrian opposition sources tell me that Russia is now recruiting Syrians to come fight for them in Ukraine, as they did already in Libya. As it turns out, what happens in Syria doesn’t stay in Syria. Russia used Syria as a training ground for the Ukraine war, testing more than 300 different weapons in Syria since 2015, according to the Russian government.
 
There have been more civilian strikes. Missiles landing outside Kharkiv regional administration building and strikes on residences in Kherson (south Uke). There are three big, miles long convoys on the way. There is talk of commencing fighting in the western regions (more difficult) and specifically near border with Poland (to block arms coming in).

Russian military so far has been embarrassing for Putin - abandoned vehicles (no fuel) all over the place. A lot of the equipment is old (70s/80s old) with Soviet radios in them. Guys are wearing helmets that look more WWII than anything recent. I saw a vid were Ukrainians taunted a Russian tank to turn around and it did. I think that vibe is going to change. Putin loves Kiev as the foundation of ancient Russian cities and I don't think he wants to level it yet but it does feel like things are about to get uglier









I don't think Putin by any means wants to level Kyiv or even engage in urban warfare.

One gray zone to consider is that Zelensky was very public in that he apparently handed out something like 25k rifles to citizens of Kyiv. If you take up arms, you're no longer a civillian but rather a combatant per international law. So Russia might start hitting residential blocks while making an argument that they were "tipped" (whether true or not) that newly armed combatants are congregating in these buildings for cover (which also would be banned by international law).

Could get messy real quick.
 
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someone should create a WAR THREAD. Glad with have the Tech giants on our side to try to stop some of the cyberattacks .
 

someone should create a WAR THREAD. Glad with have the Tech giants on our side to try to stop some of the cyberattacks .

Don't hold your breath - keep those batteries and tuna cans close
"Cybersecurity" is an illustration of the "dispersal of responsibility" dynamic
Everyone thinks everyone else has things under control and nobody does
IT is first dept cut when layoffs loom
Back in 2008 when the financial crisis hit, one reason was that the "computer models" that were supposed to give "red flags" didn't work because model indexes were measuring things the wrong way.

Here is a post I saved from a guy in one of mu PC forums.

MTYzhpD.jpg
 
Another off-the-beaten path spec stock that I always found intriguing and is down 62% from highs = any thoughts on ME (23andme)?
Nice tech, but they still need to figure out how to better monetize the services and data. Very much a work in progress as a business.
 
Another off-the-beaten path spec stock that I always found intriguing and is down 62% from highs = any thoughts on ME (23andme)?
As you know, not really my sandbox. I'm guessing they don't make money. Not a good place in this environment but if you're speculating I mean who knows. Any news you'd think that would boost it? I don't follow it enough to know but part of me feels like it's a "seasonal stock" as in the few months leading up to Xmas might be positive for it. Seems like their biggest sales would come as Xmas gifts and it did have a run up last year in the months leading up. Just random thoughts on it.
 
Tech still looks like it's in a trading range (which isn't a bad thing if you like to trade lol)...I don't expect any new breakouts any time soon. More likely breakdowns but even that I wonder if there would be that much more downside for some of these names that have been blasted. Maybe a little bit of a bias to the negative but largely range bound for now imo.
 
Tech still looks like it's in a trading range (which isn't a bad thing if you like to trade lol)...I don't expect any new breakouts any time soon. More likely breakdowns but even that I wonder if there would be that much more downside for some of these names that have been blasted. Maybe a little bit of a bias to the negative but largely range bound for now imo.
Not close yet to add to my positions, even the recent ones. And my bonuses just hit today!!! Got a ton of new money burning a hole in my pocket.
😁
 
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I hope Powell doesn’t make this mess even worse. The best news today was hearing that a looong Russian convoy ran out of fuel and food. WTF is Putin thinking.
 
I hope Powell doesn’t make this mess even worse. The best news today was hearing that a looong Russian convoy ran out of fuel and food. WTF is Putin thinking.
Lots of speculation that Powell and the Fed will need to be more dove'ish and go with the 0.25 hikes plan. Sounds good to me!
 
Lots of speculation that Powell and the Fed will need to be more dove'ish and go with the 0.25 hikes plan. Sounds good to me!
First hike was almost certainly going to be .25 and I think fairly likely the rest would be .25 as well with somewhat smaller but realistic possibility of a .5 move somewhere in there imo. It's all "data dependent" as they say and that's part of the uncertainty....have to see what the "data" shows.
 
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