OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Buy good stuff, when it goes on sale is more 'great', good stuff is usually better built with better material and assembled/built with a dedicated work force. It lasts longer so you don't have to constantly replace average/poor 'stuff'.
Furniture is a good point in case. Some bedroom 'stuff' we've had for 40 years,(cherry, Queen Ann never goes out of style or breaks...). A 5 pc LR set I bought the same time for $800 is long been burnt on somebody's front porch in Wheeling WVa.
Can you link? I know a lot of Hotel owners/operators that are using the PPP loan. But that could maybe explain 20% (2mm jobs) of it. 10mm jobs is just crazy. I'm glad because I was not looking forward to running my Q2 numbers.
Sorry, I actually can't link. That thread was on the recently deleted CE board! :)
Definitely don't do gold any over 5%. The Trump market will keep booming for a while, especially with positive vaccine news over the next few months. I'm probably at 2-3% gold.
You could have doubled your money on some options. CCL, RCL, JBLU, UAL and DAL options have more than doubled in the past month. UAL stock was up about 45% for the week and still has a ways to go. And MAR and HLT have done well too.
The Trump market is propped up by low interest rates. Virtually nothing has changed (other than maybe some specific industries) from the Obama years. Even the corporate tax break portion of the TCJA has a potential long-term downside for the economy if you can’t fund necessary government spending without borrowing exorbitant amounts. GDP annual growth is basically set at 2.2% (ignoring the pandemic).
so they deleted it huh. what a bunch of losers.
Yup! And exactly ONE poster thanked Richie for removing the CE board.
Just a public service announcement, but I'm a peon investor who has been doing this for 2 months.
I do find it an interesting pick though.
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But wasn't every airline up this week?. Were those that bought fuel in advance up at a higher %?
Unfortuneately I missed on this weeks airline rally. Had a great week but still bemoan the opportunity missed.
Of course this is not true, for most of the 3 years the Fed has had higher interest rates than places abroad. This facilitated investment overseas. Now the Pandemic and the Criminal action of the CCP has forced the Fed to lower interest rates. I look for President Trump to pass home Country laws and tax incentives after he Wins back the House and keeps the Senate. It will be BOTH good business sense to return jobs outsourced to Chin-na, but also Patriotic.
A HUGE wrong Decision by the CCP will kill their economy, which is built on a house of cards and bogus financial reporting. As the world and most especially American companies withdraw from further investment and expansion in Chin=na, their economy will tank.
Also their forced abortions aligned with their disaster of the One Child Program has destroyed their age demographics.
I don’t disagree with some of what you have there. But, it is apparent that you don’t realize that some of the changes in the 2017 TCJA incentivized multinational corporations to invest abroad.
Bitcoin’s great if you can buy some cheap and then get on Twitter and tell your thousands of followers to buy it...and they actually do. Lol
Personally I think BTC is a fad which advertises that it is “scarce“ so therefore it must be valuable. You just have to ignore the fact that there are new cryptocurrencies coming online all the time and governments hate private crypto’s because they’re used to commit crimes. It’s more like a pyramid scheme if you ask me.
Just my two cents.
Btw, saw the breakdown of the jobs numbers (forecast vs actual) by sector. 8mm of the 10mm difference was in leisure and hospitality. I do think the PPP played a big part.
Let me tag @vkj91 on this. He showed that about 3/4 of all PPP money was already spent prior to this time period.
As for jobs, looks like only gov jobs are still in significant decline (but for obvious reasons):
I can tell you he is way wrong. Look, there is nothing wrong that the numbers were improved by PPP. It was designed to save jobs. I think they need to improve the next round (yes, we’ll need it). The biggest complaint I hear is that they need to changed the allocation to 60/40 or 50/50 and allow more flexibility on the eligible non-payroll expenses. There is a chart that shows forecast vs actual. Other sectors were off but 80% was in leisure/hospitality.Let me tag @vkj91 on this. He showed that about 3/4 of all PPP money was already spent prior to this time period.
As for jobs, looks like only gov jobs are still in significant decline (but for obvious reasons):
I bet he is right. Look, market "experts" were forecasting a decline of 8 million jobs, so they were off by a whooping 10 million jobs. Are you telling me these forecasters forgot to bake in PPP? They can't be that incompetent.
I’m not wrong based on the article that was posted. The stats he posted about percentages was based on Round 2 loans. Those loans total about 150. Round 1 was like 350. Also, the allocation is 60/40 on payroll vs rent and utilities.
On this topic, I know I am right. I work with a lot of hotel owners and operators from coast to coast. Every one of them took the PPP money and they all waited until the rescind period was about to expire before they used it. Main issue was the language was too vague and people were scared that it would open up to audits and etc.
Can you explain that math to me please. How do you spend 8 weeks of payroll just before the deadline? Did they hire 5x the number of FTE they had pre corona?
You are incorrect. It’s 75/25 and people might take the loan but they didn’t use it right away.
You shouldn’t talk so definitively on a subject you obviously aren’t up to date on. It’s a bad look.
You misunderstood me. Borrower were allow to give back the loan w/o penalties before a certain date if they determine the loan wouldn’t help them. See Shake Shack. Borrowers have up to 8 weeks to use that money after the rescind date. Again, this is a good thing. It means the PPP program is actually working. I know one owner closed the hotel but hired back all the staff so they can used the 25% to pay mortgage interest.
Just like 'investing' with Bernie Madoff ,the guys that got in early and got out made money. But as usual human 'greed' made them all stay in and get bamboozled in the end like the rest of the rubes.
Again, you need to catch up the law is no longer working the way you think it does. The split is now 60/40 and you have 24 weeks or up to Dec 31 to spend the money. Also made changes on FTE rules
There are books printed on why put $ in Chin-na was a good/great idea.
Interest rates was one chapter.
Globalization was another.
The chumps in charge of the US Government from Nixon to Obumma was another.
The greed of corporate boards was another.
The greed of US pensions is another.
The greed/payoffs of American Politicians and their families is a BIG chaper.
The greed/need/ to keep power within the CCP is the final chaper and IMO will be the change necessary to actually move them back to a second rate power.
I stand corrected. Didn’t see the change on Thursday. Sorry I wasn’t up to date. I know the hotel lobby was pushing hard to get that done.
There are a lot of moving parts and unless you actually took out a loan, you probably aren’t following it as closely as those who did. I think the next step will be to just blanket forgive all loans under 2 million dollars.
Wait, you are not suppose to admit you are wrong on the internet. You need to personally attack vkj and try to change the topic.
:)
Yes, the law was signed yesterday. But as someone who took out a loan and had already completed most of my forgiveness paperwork, I knew I was up to date. Now that paperwork goes in the shredder and we start all over again. Lol
True, gov always needs to make things difficult. By the way, even for someone like me that is bullish, I'm surprised with how resilient the market has been. The Nasdaq is at an all-time high. The S&P is 5% from its high. Pretty good stuff.
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