Beat the S&P for a short time period, maybe. Beat many other sectors and stocks, no way. Perhaps the play is not gold directly, but a gold miner or some other company on the supply chain?
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
- Start date
That pig is way cuter than I am. Probably way smarter too. 😕
Lost an old friend this weekend. For any followers of Wolfspeed/Cree, JP was a heck of a guy and a brilliant scientist. He will be missed.
https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/n...er-and-chief-technology-officer-john-palmour/
https://www.wolfspeed.com/company/n...er-and-chief-technology-officer-john-palmour/
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I thought was interesting was the size of the moves, although the bitcoin move is a little exaggerated since its a relatively new asset class. I would like to see the same thing by market cap to compare and also throw in the SP500 as a baseline.
Charts can easily fool you based on the time frame the chart maker uses but still some monster moves in the last couple of years.
I've said many times, BTC value is only in the ability to use to supplant common currency in transactions. If that ability doesn't hold utility or becomes a means of commerce, the value cannot be sustained. ETH on the other hand has practical value and it's blockchain creates value. There really is too much money chasing too few assets and that is the crux of the issue for repeated bubbles. Debt drives insane money creation
WTI at $85.
Now the yoy are interesting in the coming months as last december WTI went below $70 due to the last covid wave, but marched upward to $92 on feb 24th before spiking over $120 in early March and pretty much staying above $100 for the next 4 months.
So assuming we stay in the $80-90 range, those comps will see inflation in december, but likely deflation for the 7 months which follow.
Another big step-up for the base comparator next month (Nov 2021). Moved up over a half a point:
2021 CPI and Inflation Rate for the United States - CPI Inflation Calculator (2024 Updated Monthly)
This table shows the monthly All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) as well as the annual and monthly inflation rates for the United States in 2021. You can find upcoming CPI release dates on our schedule page. These numbers are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. *The latest CPI will be...
cpiinflationcalculator.com
Comparators will be ultra high and increasing for the next 8 months. Very good for the future math of CPI! :)
Ya, and unless oil goes above and then stays above $100, there is no inflation by way of oil, even after we get past June.Another big step-up for the base comparator next month (Nov 2021). Moved up over a half a point:
2021 CPI and Inflation Rate for the United States - CPI Inflation Calculator (2024 Updated Monthly)
This table shows the monthly All-Items Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) as well as the annual and monthly inflation rates for the United States in 2021. You can find upcoming CPI release dates on our schedule page. These numbers are released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. *The latest CPI will be...
Comparators will be ultra high and increasing for the next 8 months. Very good for the future math of CPI! :)
Also interesting to see what the increase of EV's does to the oil prices over the next 10 years and beyond.
Is $90ish oil the new normal, or do we sink back into the $40-70 range that we saw in the years prior to covid.
Leisman? Nah. If anything he’s been a defender of the fed and has thought a soft landing is still in the cards.
Someone with a net short portfolio may have started the year 70% short (equities) and 30% cash. Mid-year may have switched to 50% short, 20% cash, 15% Long Futures (ES, NQ, RTY), and 15% Long precious metal and bonds. This equity curve would look very smooth and manages draw-downs very well. This portfolio is still net short, and the impact of this rally is minimal. This fictional someone may reassess their portfolio once a quarter. Sleep well, don't fight the tape.
^^^^^ Awful idea. Hard pass.
In other news:
Munger hates crypto, but likes TSLA and Elon
www.cnbc.com
In other news:
Munger hates crypto, but likes TSLA and Elon
Charlie Munger calls the success of Elon Musk's Tesla a 'minor miracle' in the car business
"We haven't had a successful new auto company in a long, long time. What Tesla has done in the car business is a minor miracle," Munger said.
For those looking for undervalued stocks:
www.morningstar.com
5 Undervalued Stocks That Crushed Q3 2022 Earnings
GSK and Polaris among the undervalued stocks that posted solid third-quarter results.
People need to learn the lessons from the past. Just look at what happened with the COVID crash and Volker Bear Market. Both took about 3 months to fully correct. Even more amazing, the Volker Bear was about 3/4 corrected by the time Volker announced victory and the Fed pivot.
People terrified of "bear market rallies" miss out out on new bull market rallies. Something to think about.
People terrified of "bear market rallies" miss out out on new bull market rallies. Something to think about.
- Market Dislocations (Covid crash) and Bears Market are two different animal.
- When you look at every bear market in history, you would do just fine if you missed the very bottom.
- In 2000-2002, the Nasdaq had 14 up days of 6% or more, and you would have been wrong 14 times if you thought the bottom was in.
Patience. Cash is a position. You don’t have to be first. It’s ok if you’re late. Bull markets tend to last a long time.
Disclaimer: These comments are not trading or investment advice, but for general entertainment purposes only. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Consult with your financial advisor.
Completely agree on #2. As for #3, anyone that reacts to a one day move (up or down) is a moron. Also, careful with using 2000-2002 as an analog for any other event. It was unique mix of happenings with the emergence of a life-changing technology and the worst terrorist attack in the history of our nation. At the time of the dot.com crash, 17 of the top 20 Nasdaq stocks were unprofitable. A very different time.
Great post. One thing to keep in mind about patience, it's also okay to be early. The math is the same whether you catch a position on the down or up. I prefer early since I can adjust by adding to a position at a better CB, if possible.
WMT's earnings were good but this is like the 3rd time TGT has been hit and then put a little cloud over the market.
www.cnbc.com
Target warns of soft holiday quarter as profit tumbles and sales slow
Target saw sales decline as families contended with higher prices, a potential warning sign for the holiday shopping season.
Seems like TGT is just screwing up as a business. Not due to the overall retail market.WMT's earnings were good but this is like the 3rd time TGT has been hit and then put a little cloud over the market.
Target warns of soft holiday quarter as profit tumbles and sales slow
Target saw sales decline as families contended with higher prices, a potential warning sign for the holiday shopping season.
Different customer base. WMT = price-sensitive shoppers looking for low-cost essentials including groceries. TGT = middle-income shoppers with more emphasis on better-quality mid-cost goods with few groceries.WMT's earnings were good but this is like the 3rd time TGT has been hit and then put a little cloud over the market.
Target warns of soft holiday quarter as profit tumbles and sales slow
Target saw sales decline as families contended with higher prices, a potential warning sign for the holiday shopping season.
TGT results indicate less discretionary spending, a sign of what lies ahead as more households cut back on non-essentials, looking more toward needs vs wants. WMT better positioned for recessionary times.
WMT and dollar stores are usually seen as safer hideouts relatively speaking in tougher economic times.
TGT has had poor results for 6-9 months. Retail sales still chugging along nicely. Wrong conclusion to jump to my friendly bear.
Not out of the woods…
Am I understanding this correctly?
Most of the CPI "miss" was due to a one-time lower healthcare service cost due to statistical technical reasons?
Am I understanding this correctly?
Most of the CPI "miss" was due to a one-time lower healthcare service cost due to statistical technical reasons?
Great article on inflation below. The HC service cost reset at a negative level and will remain for the next 6-12 months. This is a good indicator of lower readings to come (as is the rapidly increasing base comparator month). The massive lag in many CPI readings are starting to finally enter the time range where inflation significant drops. These government metrics are wonky, so you never know, but the CPI is heading downwards. It's just a matter of time for the math to catch up with the real world.
Why We Expect Inflation to Fall in 2023
Wondering when inflation will go down? Help is on the way.
We won't see meaningful decreases in inflation until energy and supply normalize. Energy is the biggest canary as that bird has level IV plates on. The administration and global cabal are fighting against supply in energy and the pillars of the global economy run on those pillars. lower inflation that remains elevated due to energy and supply dislocations is not a reduction in inflation merely a redistribution of resources. Milk, eggs, cereal, you name it, is all elevated well beyond 12mos to get back to a level that would normalize our way of life. 16.5 trillion (highest ever) is consumer debt with 300 billion being added each month in cc debt. We'll have lower growth but policy is going to keep inflation elevated
can't buy his view when he says we're going to drill and frack our way to happiness
Energy prices are fine. They have come down nicely since the peak and have been relatively flat for months. You are right about price elevation, but most prices have at least plateaued (which means inflation is zero).
