OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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May be tough as I believe there will be some selling for tax harvesting in December
I dunno, people have taken enough losses already, do they really need to harvest more?
I know I don't, might actually sell some winners to offset some of the losses. Especially if defense stocks like NOC, or energy like SLB go on a Dec run.
Organic or not, it's the direction auto manufacturers have signaled they are turning. Oil is not going to open the spickets in the face of that.
You can use realized capital loses down the road, they don’t disappear in the current taxable year. I wouldn’t sell winners that that I still like to offset loses. Having said that, as a long term investor and not a trader, I don’t have any long term capital losses.
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Any chance the fed looks at alternative data points such as this and determines their work isn't complete yet?
Electronics have been very cheap the last weeks, and BF was almost garage sale prices for many items.
Lots of backed-up inventory
I usually scoff at BF and wait for the Feb clearputs before new models but this year BF was like the olden days. I almost bought an Xbox S just because it was in stock at 240 but I play on PC
Lots of backed-up inventory
I usually scoff at BF and wait for the Feb clearputs before new models but this year BF was like the olden days. I almost bought an Xbox S just because it was in stock at 240 but I play on PC
Good point on selling some winners. If you have losses booked, you should use the opportunity to reposition. You only can deduct $3k in losses anyway.
I don't think so. They are starting to crow about getting inflation down without tanking the economy and throwing people out of work for the holidays (i.e., soft landing).
+1
For our E-Trade taxable account, we didn't sell anything all year. Just adjusted positions by using our new money/bi-weekly contributions.
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In NY the kooks aren't fixing the grid and are creating more weaknesses
That is the giveaway that the well-being of the people, planet whatever isn't the goal
They promise new energy to come after a shutdown (like Indian Point) but then the promised supply isn't there.
There are good reasons all the communists, radicals, CCP, Russia et al are pushing the US over a green cliff, while psychotics who think men need menstrual products in their bathrooms are being programmed to virtue signal their way into famines, shortages, hacked grids etc.
"Reliability margins on New York’s electric grid are shrinking as more fossil fuel generators retire and non-dispatchable renewables are added, the state’s Independent System Operator warned on Wednesday. “We’re taking on a little bit more risk,” NYISO President and CEO Richard Dewey told reporters in a call to discuss the grid operator’s annual Power Trends 2022 report.
New York has historically enjoyed a surplus of generation, but efforts to decarbonize are beginning to show up in forward-looking reliability assessments, Dewey said."
“If you look at the last three years, 2019 through 2021, you can see that retirements have significantly outpaced the new additions,
New York lawmakers abandon bill to grow renewables as state's grid operator warns margins tightening
Reliability margins on New York’s grid are shrinking, the Independent System Operator said, just days after state lawmakers halted work on a bill designed to grow renewables.
Ditching gas to save the planet risks mass starvation, top UN economist says
Divestment from fossil fuels will raise food prices, Máximo Torero says.
What? You can carry forward your loses. No advantage unless you want out of the position
Think you better get out of your bubble and understand what goes into mining, building, sourcing, and trashing of the many EV products
no, you must have missed 2 manufacturers culling their lines and r-expanding ice production
Yep we’ve been mining metals since the beginning of time. Let me know when we are cleaning up metal spills for decades across thousands of acres across the earth, which are responsible for millions of animal deaths. I also wonder if EVs have cleaner emissions. Take the L and get out of your echo chamber.
The average american isn’t going to have access to the charging requirements needed to own an EV car. The vast, vast majority of apartments and apartment complexes don’t have any charging spots and landlords/real estate companies are too cheap to install them and when they do they will put 4 in a complex that has 200+ units. Lower and middle income complexes will likely never have them unless the government foots the full bill to outfit all parking spaces with them.
This is going to screw auto manufacturers, I just don’t see how it can’t. The luxury complex I moved out of said they don’t have plans to install charging stations in the foreseeable future.
The answer will be to fill them up at charging stations like they do today at gas stations. What will need to improve is the time to recharge which I’m sure is being researched by many companies including Tesla and their vast network.
How many people has a gas pump at their house?
We are far, far away from charging stations being a perfect substitute for gas stations. I’m all for it if it can be done.
Now THIS is exactly what I did this year. But then again I only had about that -$3k anyway. Took a bunch of LT Profit earlier this year before the s storm fully materialized.
But with all these moves have to keep playing around with my Planner to manage under the $150k NJ Taxable Income Threshold. An extra grand could cost me $3k in more taxes. Not even sure if I'll do this much longer as I'm worried I just keep deferring too much income for a few grand in savings. I think I like the exercise is managing everything to it though and seeing how close I can come without going over.
Was a good thing to do this year as not to be pulling a bunch of qualified income out of deflated accounts.
I believe you only pay the higher tax rate ( 8.97%) on the amount above and beyond the $150K. In other words, you get taxed up to $150K at the lower rate and then they start taxing you only on the amount above $150k.
I agree that taxes shouldn’t be the main driver in an investment decision, but efficient tax planning can be very valuable in the long term scheme of things.
we're talking about 2 different things. IF you are 62 and older you can exclude all to 25% of your retirement distributions if you NJ taxable income is under $100/125/150k. (married joint)
N.J. retirees with income up to $150K will get new tax break under the budget deal
Previously, the income cut off was $100K.
In addition to that the re-named Anchor Program rebates you $1,500 on your property taxes if under $150,000 in NJ taxable income.
So let's say you have $124k in retirement withdrawal for the year and your only other income is NJ non-taxable SSecurity. You get to deduct 50% of that $124k ($62k) from your NJ taxes! With the $2k standard deduction you're only paying taxes on $60k. Based on 2022 Rates that saves you $3.5k plus another $1.5k for total of $5k savings. (it reduces to about $3k if you're just under the $150k threshold).
$149.999k + $1 it all goes away. So saving $3 - $5k NJ taxes on $25k income is a 12 -20% return.
(that's my take on this and if I have this totally screwed up somebody here is sure to let me know)
Just got estimates of cap gains distributions for my biggest funds - many between 6-8%. That's why my funds are in tax-deferred accounts and I use only ETFs in taxable accounts! LOL.
It isn't going to be good enough for inflation to stagnate. We need it to come down to ~2%. if not then we will either continue to see rate hikes or rates to stay persistently elevated. Either of those scenarios is bad for growth stocks and the stock market in general.
Use real housing data and MoM CPI was negative last month (including Core CPI). The math is slowly moving in that direction. Too bad the morons at the Fed don't seem to understand the metrics.
Still eyeing LABU. Hoping to get in if it dips below $6. It has been hovering in the $6-7 range lately.
cannot move down unless energy moves down significantly
sticky inflation is the concern
Energy/oil have been deflationary for the past 6 months (i.e., well down from the peak).
Energy, home/apartment rental prices all need to come down. Of course, a rapid downturn would likely mean a recession. I think all this talk of soft landing will end next year. We will be likely talking about recession.
Not seeing it - as in a legit recession. Energy is way down (the hysteria of calling for $200+ barrel is long past) . Home prices and rent are going down. Customer is strong. Labor market is strong. Wages are up. Life is good for the majority of people.
Thank China's COVID lockdown for that. Once they're open, again, oil demand will be up as will prices. That said, electric/power rates are increasing, diesel fuel is in short supply, as is home heating oil. Winter will be pricey.
The irrational hysteria of Russia disrupting the entire market caused the spike (which never happens). Russia is selling their oil to China and China is then selling it over to the EU. No big deal. Unless that changes, we will be fine.
Good article on the two of the main inflation metrics:
The Biden admin again showing why the oil companies will never trust them:
oilprice.com
White House Changes Plan To Refill SPR At $70 Per Barrel | OilPrice.com
U.S. Energy Security Advisor Amos Hochstein said on Tuesday that the White House would look to refill the nation’s Strategic Petroleum Reserves when oil prices were “consistently” at $70 per barrel
oilprice.com
it's about sticky inflation, that is the concern i.e. where does it settle. I'm not see deflationary pressure while people are still pay $4/gallon and the spending on revolving debt has exploded which still hasn't subsided.
Of note, buy now pay later exploded on Black Friday and accounted for over 1/3 of all black friday spending.
I would not be suprised to see inflation and significant downturn in the market.
Home prices will continue to fall, a lot!
