OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RUTGERS95]

Energy/oil have been deflationary for the past 6 months (i.e., well down from the peak).

but it's not expansionary and where it settles matters. You need to step back from want, step back from investing and survey the landscape. Way too many uncertainties to be honest.

On top of that, weak leadership has led to way too many geopolitical question marks. I honestly cannot recall a time I've been alive where we had so many pockets of potential conflicts that could engulf entire regions or have massive global concerns

 

[T2Kplus20]

but it's not expansionary and where it settles matters. You need to step back from want, step back from investing and survey the landscape. Way too many uncertainties to be honest.

On top of that, weak leadership has led to way too many geopolitical question marks. I honestly cannot recall a time I've been alive where we had so many pockets of potential conflicts that could engulf entire regions or have massive global concerns

Very true on the dangers of weak leadership. At least Congress is now divided, so no more reckless gov spending.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Labor market looking soft:

Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports

Companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-Hunter]

Labor market looking soft:

Private hiring increased by just 127,000 jobs in November, well below estimate, ADP reports

Companies added just 127,000 positions for the month, a steep reduction from the 239,000 the firm reported for October

www.cnbc.com

The number of job openings also came down too. Let's hope Powell doesn't scare the markets again later today.

 

[T2Kplus20]

The number of job openings also came down too. Let's hope Powell doesn't scare the markets again later today.

Time to start ignoring Powell and his minions. The data speaks for itself and will rule the day (whether positive or negative).

 

[ScarletNut]

Great day for quick TQQQ trade.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Great day for quick TQQQ trade.

Or for those long holding that bizatch!

Powell with a mini-pivot. The first of many future announcements as CPI comes crashing down.

 

[RU-05]

Time to start ignoring Powell and his minions. The data speaks for itself and will rule the day (whether positive or negative).

I've been of the opinion that the hawkish talk of the 3-4 months has been, in part, jawboning.

And while the fed was late in combating inflation, as of right now it doesn't appear they have gone too far in terms of tightening. If they moderate here, they are very much in like with Prof Siegel.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I've been of the opinion that the hawkish talk of the 3-4 months has been, in part, jawboning.

And while the fed was late in combating inflation, as of right now it doesn't appear they have gone too far in terms of tightening. If they moderate here, they are very much in like with Prof Siegel.

Okay, I listened to the entire Powell speech. He said a lot more than just slowing the rate hikes. He mentioned not overtightening and being careful not to harm employment of lower income workers. Bottom line.....some DC pols chatted with him and he got the message. No doubt!

Definitely more like Siegel today, but Siegel says no more hikes. I wonder if we go back to .25% and continue as needed?

 

[RU-05]

Okay, I listened to the entire Powell speech. He said a lot more than just slowing the rate hikes. He mentioned not overtightening and being careful not to harm employment of lower income workers. Bottom line.....some DC pols chatted with him and he got the message. No doubt!

Definitely more like Siegel today, but Siegel says no more hikes. I wonder if we go back to .25% and continue as needed?

I think Siegel advocated another .5 in Dec.

But I'm not in the overly cynical camp that "DC pols" got involved. I don't think the fed is listening to that rabble. Might be listening to Siegel, but I think they were just of similar mind all along.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I think Siegel advocated another .5 in Dec.

But I'm not in the overly cynical camp that "DC pols" got involved. I don't think the fed is listening to that rabble. Might be listening to Siegel, but I think they were just of similar mind all along.

Overtightening and harming lower income people are straight from DC pol talking points. Remember, last year Powell met with Biden literally a few hours before the first hawkish/transitionary is dead speech. Powell going super hawk on inflation was a mandatory condition for Biden renominating him.

 

[RU-05]

Overtightening and harming lower income people are straight from DC pol talking points. Remember, last year Powell met with Biden literally a few hours before the first hawkish/transitionary is dead speech. Powell going super hawk on inflation was a mandatory condition for Biden renominating him.

This story line would have made more sense pre election.

To do it right after the election makes much less sense.

Inflation had to brought in. Powell was late, but went strong on it, and looks like he is easing up right about where he should.

The "DC Pols" narrative looks to me like typical politcal hogwash complicating a much simpler explanation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

This story line would have made more sense pre election.

To do it right after the election makes much less sense.

Inflation had to brought in. Powell was late, but went strong on it, and looks like he is easing up right about where he should.

The "DC Pols" narrative looks to me like typical politcal hogwash complicating a much simpler explanation.

It was common knowledge that this happened. Even reported on by CNBC last year.

 

[RUTGERS95]

his talking points on lower income employment is all politics and really shameful but as I've said many times over many years, the FED is a political machine and does not stick to it's intended mandate. The reality is that higher paying jobs pay a majority of the taxes. What he ought to say, since he's being political, is that the gov't needs to create tax free zones to encourage investment, employment and reduce dependency on gov't all the while reexamining regulation that stifles growth. Gov't budgets would be far strong with this approach.

 

[RUTGERS95]

I'm also a proponent of less measured hikes and going full bore to get to desired target and letting the dust settle.

 

[RU-05]

It was common knowledge that this happened. Even reported on by CNBC last year.

Nah fed had made their intentions known before the politicians jumped in.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Another soft inflation report. PCE comes in lower than expected:

Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise 0.3% in October and 5% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

 

[RU-05]

CRWD, SNOW, CRM.

Different companies for sure, not only in what they do, but in their valuations, CRM looks pretty cheap on certain metrics, while the other 2 still have high growth valuations. I'm looking.

 

[RU-05]

Another soft inflation report. PCE comes in lower than expected:

Key inflation measure that the Fed follows rose 0.2% in October, less than expected

The core personal consumption expenditures price index was expected to rise 0.3% in October and 5% from a year ago, according to Dow Jones estimates.

www.cnbc.com

Bob Pisani just said to watch for the jobs report tomorrow, and if we don't see continued wage inflation, he thought we could see a continued rally.

 

[T2Kplus20]

CRWD, SNOW, CRM.

Different companies for sure, not only in what they do, but in their valuations, CRM looks pretty cheap on certain metrics, while the other 2 still have high growth valuations. I'm looking.

CRWD and CRM are compelling and great long holds. SNOW is still at a crazy valuation, even for me. LOL!

 

[RU-05]

CRWD and CRM are compelling and great long holds. SNOW is still at a crazy valuation, even for me. LOL!

SNOW: 24x price to rev's
CRWD: 13X price to rev's

SNOW does have better growth.

SNOW with a much better price to book. 8x vs 20ishx.

CRM with a price to book below 3x, very much in value territory.

 

[T2Kplus20]

SNOW: 24x price to rev's
CRWD: 13X price to rev's

SNOW does have better growth.

SNOW with a much better price to book. 8x vs 20ishx.

CRM with a price to book below 3x, very much in value territory.

I bet we see CRM added to value funds soon. By the way, OTKA finally took the hint the market has been giving to high-growth unprofitable tech companies. They surprised everyone with a breakeven quarter when the street expected -$0.24 per share.

Stock up 21%.

 

[T2Kplus20]

I bet we see CRM added to value funds soon. By the way, OTKA finally took the hint the market has been giving to high-growth unprofitable tech companies. They surprised everyone with a breakeven quarter when the street expected -$0.24 per share.

Stock up 21%.

Update:
OKTA +26%

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yes, asset “location” is very important!

Good conversation about managing cap gains!

3 Ways to Manage Capital Gains Distributions in 2022

Despite poor returns for most funds this year, many are distributing capital gains.

www.morningstar.com

 

[RUTGERS95]

one thing is for certain, janet yellen has fallen off the deep end and gone all in on the left narrative and blames 2 yrs of splurging Americans on inflation.

 

[T2Kplus20]

one thing is for certain, janet yellen has fallen off the deep end and gone all in on the left narrative and blames 2 yrs of splurging Americans on inflation.

Easy to splurg when the gov dumps $6T of free money into the economy. LOL!

 

[RUTGERS95]

Easy to splurg when the gov dumps $6T of free money into the economy. LOL!

But she ignores non organic variables that fked the economy

Of note, retail and storage was very weak with the strong jobs report. Ruh roh. Keep the powder ready

 

[T2Kplus20]

Good rally throughout the day after the bear freakout this morning. The "strong" jobs report was a decline of 50,000 versus last month. LOL!

 

[jtung230]

Good rally throughout the day after the bear freakout this morning. The "strong" jobs report was a decline of 50,000 versus last month. LOL!

Kind of like inflation is coming down. It’s only 7.3%.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Kind of like inflation is coming down. It’s only 7.3%.

PCE keeps going down. Bad news for bears like you.

 

[jtung230]

PCE keeps going down. Bad news for bears like you.

We’ll see. I harvested losses on Amazon and Google. Bought 25% back at 10% discount. I did miss out on F and ADBE. But have a feeling it’ll come back down.

 

[T2Kplus20]

We’ll see. I harvested losses on Amazon and Google. Bought 25% back at 10% discount. I did miss out on F and ADBE. But have a feeling it’ll come back down.

Call me crazy, but TDOC may be ripe for a trade. Last Q they reported earnings above expectations and barely below breakeven. Have they gotten the message to go profitable ASAP?

Next Q reports in late Jan/early Feb. Do they finally turn in legit earnings? Do they pop like OKTA did?

@RU-05 - Thoughts? We have chatted about TDOC in the past.

 

[ashokan]

Hard to trust US government eco/jobs stats since they've got a record of making stuff-up, inflating/revising etc.



"There were 158.458 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.470 million in November 2022 an increase of just 12,000 over 8 months, a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.7 million!"

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy."

Exclusive | Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington. The decline — from 8.1 percent…

nypost.com

 

[RU-05]

Call me crazy, but TDOC may be ripe for a trade. Last Q they reported earnings above expectations and barely below breakeven. Have they gotten the message to go profitable ASAP?

Next Q reports in late Jan/early Feb. Do they finally turn in legit earnings? Do they pop like OKTA did?

@RU-05 - Thoughts? We have chatted about TDOC in the past.

Back in may TDOC dropped to right around$30. Got off the mat and bounced to around $38. Then again in June, as the rest of the market tanked, it again fell to, and bounced off, $30, this time getting as high as $45 in Jul.

Since then? Cut nealy in half from those July highs, breaking below that $30 level which had provided support on 2 different occasions and fell all the way to below $24.

Looking further back TDOC had crossed over $50 in the spring of 2018, and stayed above that level, and of coarse going parabolic in 2020 reaching as high as $300 in early 2021, before the rug was pulled out. Now consider that in the 4th quarter of 2018 TDOC reported rev's of $123million. It's most recent quarter it reported revs of $611 million.

So 4x the 2018 rev's but a stock price that is 40% off those 2018 levels. Current price to rev's of 2x. Price to book of .78. So pretty cheap on those metrics But as you noted still not profitable(just accounted for big losses which I think were from buying livongo) and that rev growth? Has flattened. 10-12ish% expected growth(which is still quite nice, but not the high growth it saw in the pandemic).

As an investment? I think there is a good argument to be made here. Especially if you think it can become profitable in the next couple years. Previous levels may have been too high(certainly in early 2021 they were) but these levels seem cheap. If you like the business this seems an intriguing entry point.

As a trade? there are cross currents. For one the $30 level which provided support a couple times? Could be resistance here. And while some stocks seemed to have found that bottom in June, TDOC continued a downward trend. On the other hand, there does look to be a little cup and handle formation in the 3 month chart(to my novice chart reading eye) and if the rest of the market rallies through Dec? I imagine TDOC goes with it(but that goes for most stocks).

 

[RU-05]

Hard to trust US government eco/jobs stats since they've got a record of making stuff-up, inflating/revising etc.



"There were 158.458 million employed workers in March 2022... and 158.470 million in November 2022 an increase of just 12,000 over 8 months, a period in which the number of payrolls (which as a reminder is the number the market follows) reportedly increased by 2.7 million!"

ZeroHedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

"In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington.

The decline — from 8.1 percent in August to 7.8 percent in September — might not have been all it seemed. The numbers, according to a reliable source, were manipulated.

And the Census Bureau, which does the unemployment survey, knew it.

Just two years before the presidential election, the Census Bureau had caught an employee fabricating data that went into the unemployment report, which is one of the most closely watched measures of the economy."

Exclusive | Census ‘faked’ 2012 election jobs report

In the home stretch of the 2012 presidential campaign, from August to September, the unemployment rate fell sharply — raising eyebrows from Wall Street to Washington. The decline — from 8.1 percent…

nypost.com

The tight job market had been a key contributor to inflation. So unless we want to say inflation is also being faked, the logic doesn't add up.

And all you have had to do is go outside to see help wanted signs all over the place, to see how tight the market is.

But thanks for posting a NY Post article from 10 years ago.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Back in may TDOC dropped to right around$30. Got off the mat and bounced to around $38. Then again in June, as the rest of the market tanked, it again fell to, and bounced off, $30, this time getting as high as $45 in Jul.

Since then? Cut nealy in half from those July highs, breaking below that $30 level which had provided support on 2 different occasions and fell all the way to below $24.

Looking further back TDOC had crossed over $50 in the spring of 2018, and stayed above that level, and of coarse going parabolic in 2020 reaching as high as $300 in early 2021, before the rug was pulled out. Now consider that in the 4th quarter of 2018 TDOC reported rev's of $123million. It's most recent quarter it reported revs of $611 million.

So 4x the 2018 rev's but a stock price that is 40% off those 2018 levels. Current price to rev's of 2x. Price to book of .78. So pretty cheap on those metrics But as you noted still not profitable(just accounted for big losses which I think were from buying livongo) and that rev growth? Has flattened. 10-12ish% expected growth(which is still quite nice, but not the high growth it saw in the pandemic).

As an investment? I think there is a good argument to be made here. Especially if you think it can become profitable in the next couple years. Previous levels may have been too high(certainly in early 2021 they were) but these levels seem cheap. If you like the business this seems an intriguing entry point.

As a trade? there are cross currents. For one the $30 level which provided support a couple times? Could be resistance here. And while some stocks seemed to have found that bottom in June, TDOC continued a downward trend. On the other hand, there does look to be a little cup and handle formation in the 3 month chart(to my novice chart reading eye) and if the rest of the market rallies through Dec? I imagine TDOC goes with it(but that goes for most stocks).

Great stuff! I think the play here is to get in before they go profitable. There is time, since they don't report again until Feb 22. Perhaps the price will drift back down to $25'ish. I wonder if they issued guidance on when they may go profitable? I need to check that out. I believe growth slowing is a positive sign of them focusing on going cash flow positive. This is what the market wants and what the market will reward.

 

[RU-05]

Great stuff! I think the play here is to get in before they go profitable. There is time, since they don't report again until Feb 22. Perhaps the price will drift back down to $25'ish. I wonder if they issued guidance on when they may go profitable? I need to check that out. I believe growth slowing is a positive sign of them focusing on going cash flow positive. This is what the market wants and what the market will reward

Yup all about that profitability. Cash flow of 1.20ish per share. Though that is not expected to see much growth in the next couple years.

I also agree to watch for a little bit lower entry point. I could see a bit of a run through december and then a pull back. That seems to be the general sentiment.

Maybe if it gets up to $32ish buy some puts.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Yup all about that profitability. Cash flow of 1.20ish per share. Though that is not expected to see much growth in the next couple years.

I also agree to watch for a little bit lower entry point. I could see a bit of a run through december and then a pull back. That seems to be the general sentiment.

Maybe if it gets up to $32ish buy some puts.

I may go bottom feeding on wrecked spec tech if I can find a few with near-term profitability. Lots of choices to analyze. My other positions are solid, just adding new cash to them as it comes in. Also, patiently waiting to start a position in LABU. I'm bullish on bio-tech and think it will lead the way when the rally gets going.

 

[RU-05]

I may go bottom feeding on wrecked spec tech if I can find a few with near-term profitability. Lots of choices to analyze. My other positions are solid, just adding new cash to them as it comes in. Also, patiently waiting to start a position in LABU. I'm bullish on bio-tech and think it will lead the way when the rally gets going.

I have UBER, PINS, and Z. Though I did just have Z called away, and will now turn an immediately sell puts. Figure I will get it back.

ABNB, is another interesting one. STNE(buffet stock). INDI(startup chip manufacturer).

 

[ashokan]

The tight job market had been a key contributor to inflation. So unless we want to say inflation is also being faked, the logic doesn't add up.

And all you have had to do is go outside to see help wanted signs all over the place, to see how tight the market is.

But thanks for posting a NY Post article from 10 years ago.

The ten year old article was to show how long the gov has been lying
The Twitter corruption shows that and its just the tip of the iceberg
Ukraine got destroyed while the "Ukraine is winning" psyops went on for months (of course Ukraine is corrupt DC's laundromat).

Most of the places I see with hiring signs lost workers after the covid payouts and vaccine mandates
In NY even the illegals got millions
Tech, media and others going down the drain with job implosion

Tech layoffs send visa holders on frantic search for employment to avoid deportation

The spike in tech layoffs is creating a particularly stressful holiday season for employees on work visa programs who have a short window to find a new job.

www.cnbc.com