BOOM! Thanks for posting. This is where CPI math is heading. Also, the base/comparator month from a year ago keeps getting higher and higher, which will also lower new YoY data points.
OT: Stock and Investment Talk
- Thread starter RU-05
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Prices rose less than expected in November. Good news. But prices still rose, nonetheless.
Still thinking markets will adjust downward in/by 2Q23. And then followed by a slow steady upswing before leveling off in late '23.
So... a buying opportunity early next year?
Still thinking markets will adjust downward in/by 2Q23. And then followed by a slow steady upswing before leveling off in late '23.
So... a buying opportunity early next year?
Santa rally in full force with Wall Street bonuses tied to it. This is staying up here ‘till new years. After that, all bets are off.
Even with using CPI's BS lagging shelter metric, this month's inflation was only 1.2% annualized (lower than 2%, right?). Use real time shelter data and BOTH core and total CPI were well into negative/deflationary territory for the month.
Also, YoY wages (weekly and hourly) were negative between 2-4%.
XLE is tough to gauge. You'd have to be conscious of the geopolitical environment (Russia/Ukraine), Manipulation/collusion/disruptions/supply shocks, winter forecast (guess), health of the economy (demand), etc. None of this is for me. I do keep on eye on it though. Oil at $50 will signal recession at $90 we have a very strong economy.
I prefer the easy stuff like COSTCO with their 2%-3% net margins and very predictable few billion in membership fees.
Food inflation is still a persistent problem at 12% annualized and cuts broadly across the economic spectrum.
Make it so:
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner now sees even smaller Fed's rate hikes, of 25 basis points at the February meeting, and no further increases in March, leaving the peak fed funds rate at 4.625%.
Question - When does the cutting begin? Powell knows he overtightened and can't hold for too long.
Morgan Stanley's chief U.S. economist Ellen Zentner now sees even smaller Fed's rate hikes, of 25 basis points at the February meeting, and no further increases in March, leaving the peak fed funds rate at 4.625%.
Question - When does the cutting begin? Powell knows he overtightened and can't hold for too long.
Oil is all over the place as it has been traditionally, but if you look at the big picture:
Everything you need keeps going up.
Everything you want is going down.
Well, judging by my gut, I want food more than I need it.
Well if food inflation results in cutting our waist sizes it might mean lower medical inflation
Thanks Ellen, the peak of rates was discussed on this thread 7 weeks ago. Late to the party.
TSLA's ttm p/e or 44x. It's 2022 expected p/e(with 4th qtr due out late Jan) is below 40x.
EPS growth rate 21 into 22 was 80ish%.
Expected yoy growth rate into 2023 is 37%. 24% yoy into 2024.
Given the growth we have seen, and is still expected, what is a reasonable p/e?
Perhaps a better question is how far do we think the stock price will fall?
EPS growth rate 21 into 22 was 80ish%.
Expected yoy growth rate into 2023 is 37%. 24% yoy into 2024.
Given the growth we have seen, and is still expected, what is a reasonable p/e?
Perhaps a better question is how far do we think the stock price will fall?
It will drift lower until Elon shuts up. LOL!
Seriously, I believe the stock slide is less about the company and more about EM. From Morningstar, bullish on the new semi:
No Changes to Our $250 FVE as Tesla Begins Semi Truck Deliveries; Shares Undervalued
Analyst Note | Updated Dec 02, 2022
On Dec. 1, Tesla hosted an event to showcase its semi truck and began deliveries of the new vehicle. We had already assumed the company would begin semi deliveries this year and ramp up delivery volumes over the next several years to around 50,000 vehicles per year. With our outlook unchanged, we maintain our $250 per share fair value estimate and narrow moat rating. At current prices, we view Tesla shares as undervalued with the stock trading in 4-star territory.
The event highlighted the features of Tesla's semi truck. Consistent with management's previous statements, the semi truck has a published 500-mile range towing a full load, which is 82,000 pounds based on U.S. federal limits. We think the semi truck will see strong demand over time as the cost savings from electricity versus diesel will more than offset the higher upfront cost to make a business case for the switch to electric trucks.
While the range would work for both short- and long-haul trucking, the lack of charging infrastructure for heavy trucks will likely limit the semi's initial market to short-haul purposes, where the truck can return to the garage to charge. Longer term, Tesla plans to build heavy truck charging stations using its new V4 supercharging technology that can provide charging speeds up to 1 megawatt, but this will likely take time to materialize, limiting the use case to short-haul routes over the next several years.
During the event, management said the V4 supercharging technology will also be used for the Cybertruck, the consumer light truck expected to be released next year. Over time, V4 superchargers will likely allow faster charging times for all Tesla models. This is in line with our view that average charge times for EVs will fall to 10 minutes, down from 15 minutes for Tesla autos using the V3 technology. This should keep Tesla as having one of the fastest charge times of any EV globally, supporting continued vehicle deliveries growth.
Elon has become a net negative to Tesla shareholders. He should just sell his stake to focus on Twitter lol.
I would prefer he does the opposite! Dump Twitter and go back to focusing on TSLA. :)
What are the driver's for food inflation?
Labor costs seem like the logical answer. Sounds like more coming on that front.
I imagine fuel prices were a main driver so with fuel prices way off their highs that should help alleviate some of the food inflation, though I'm not sure how long that takes to work through.
Anecdotal, but one of our big suppliers who had two 10% price hikes in 2022, said no price hikes in 2023, and we should see the return of "buy in" discounts of up to 20%.
The latter makes me think they know they went a little heavier in their increases then they needed to.
The latter makes me think they know they went a little heavier in their increases then they needed to.
I believe there was a CNBC article on Costco saying the same thing. They won't accept any more price increases from suppliers and likely will demand cuts.
I prefer he get out of the business world altogether and focus on charitable work with his approximately $200B+. There's child cancers to eradicate, and some other ugly diseases like dementia and the like to solve.
Pretty stark difference in the expected EPS growth from FDX and UPS.
UPS is pretty flat looking 3-4 years out.
FDX's are expected to come in a bunch 2022 in 2023. From an EPS of $20 to $14, but $17 expected in 2024, $21 in 2025 and $26 in 2026.
Current p/e for fdx of 11x.
UPS is pretty flat looking 3-4 years out.
FDX's are expected to come in a bunch 2022 in 2023. From an EPS of $20 to $14, but $17 expected in 2024, $21 in 2025 and $26 in 2026.
Current p/e for fdx of 11x.
don't hold your breath. He would rather spend money colonizing Mars
Which if he can do it, makes it much less of a crazy idea.
Making it to Mars would be an amazing accomplishment for humanity. It's a great pursuit for Elon (in his spare time!).
on a side note did anyone see the White House Press Conference question on a supposed leak of the CPI data? The whole exchange was straight out of chappelle’s Black Bush skit lmao
0.5% increase as expected. Powell tried to talk tough a bit, but the bond market gave the Fed the middle finger. 10y and 2y yield down for the day.
Plan accordingly. The market will call the pause/pivot well before the Fed does.
Plan accordingly. The market will call the pause/pivot well before the Fed does.
