OT: Stock and Investment Talk
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Using real-time shelter data, CPI CORE YoY is down to 2.1%. BOOM!
Plan accordingly.
Gotta take advantage of other people's stupidity. Keep buying! Beyond my long-term HC holdings, I'm trading CURE and LABU for now.
Some of my neighbors are in fact taking advantage. Nice clean 2100 sq/ft home right around the corner is in contract for $800k. Another was just listed yesterday for $850k. The first one had decent kitchen, no pool, and lies on a cut through road. The 2nd one can use a new kitchen, again, no pool, but it’s on a better block. These folk would have happily taken $500k just three years ago. Something is off.
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Most people refi'ed during COVID. Why dump a 3% mortgage for a 7% mortgage?
FL migration is in for an extended pause. Nice neighborhoods outside of Sarasota had plenty of inventory in the $600k range just three years ago. Now the going price is $1.2 million for the same homes.
When the sh1t hits the fan it will be epic.
When the sh1t hits the fan it will be epic.
Who said "just about"? You are pretty consistent in making these types of erroneous assumptions.
Hard to wrap my head around housing prices. Went to an open house in Morris County this weekend. House was listed $1.2M. Taxes are $25K. Nothing was updated in the house. Cars were lined up down the street. I had to wait on the porch because there were too many people inside. Apparently, there were 10 offers made that day. Where the heck are people coming up with all the money to pay for these overpriced homes? I’ve heard people are tapping retirement funds, parents are paying a portion, families are pooling money, and basically throwing every penny they have at homes. If true, can’t be good for long term financial health.
META and Zukcy are the darlings of the market now due to calming down on the "meta" and finding Jesus on efficiency. Facebook is a cash flow monster, so the future looks good. I read an article that talked about how Facebook finally figured out the AAPL privacy changes.
META will likely continue to outperform the QQQ/tech sector.
I think that may depend on the timeline. Their run was so hot, they prob need a cool down in the short term. Longer term you may be right.
Don't know much about 3M except for that big lawsuit with the military. Are the financial consequences of that over yet? If yes, this may be the bottom or close to it.
Morningstar:
PFAS Manufacturing Restatement Doesn't Alter Our Long-Term 3M View
Business Strategy and Outlook | Updated Mar 02, 2023
Litigation fears and weak fundamentals continue to plague 3M, which we think are responsible for the shares' persistent price/value gap. While we think this discount implies too high a liability related to its perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances and Combat Arms litigation, 3M's bankruptcy court loss removes a vital catalyst in the stock.
At its core, 3M is a materials science company. The firm boasts suite of innovative products that are a byproduct of its research and development efforts. The firm's legion of engineers improves everyday products down to their basic chemistry. For instance, 3M's microreplication technology, which has been around since the 1960s, was originally used in overhead projectors. That technology has now been adapted into multiple use cases, including making signs brighter and reducing friction in aerospace applications, and is now being developed for vaccine delivery as an alternative to hypodermic needles.
The firm's proprietary secrets are closely held as 3M rarely grants licenses, and its technology is difficult to imitate. As a result, 3M typically charges a 10%-30% price premium relative to the market. 3M's ability to adapt its technology into multiple use cases also gives it economies of scope, which helps reduce overall unit costs, evident in its superior gross margins.
We believe the firm can increase its top line over a 2% CAGR over the long term thanks to broad-based strength, even as respirator sales and supply chain disruptions remain a near-term headwind. Acquisitions like negative-pressure woundcare solutions provider Acelity should allow the firm to capitalize on the stable and ever-growing healthcare market. Healthcare benefits from multiple positive secular trends, including an aging population, greater access to care, as well as rising incidence of chronic disease and surgical procedures. That said, 3M has meaningfully impaired intrinsic value over the past five years by our measure, which we attribute to a combination of self-inflicted wounds and macro-related headwinds, though we don't expect fundamentals will materially improve over the near to medium term.
Fair Value and Profit Drivers | Updated Mar 27, 2023
After reviewing 3M's restated financials to account for its exit of all related PFAS chemicals manufacturing, we maintain our $131 fair value estimate. We model just over a 2% five-year adjusted sales CAGR and a midcycle operating margin of nearly 21%. We value 3M at about 15 times our 2023 adjusted EPS expectation of $8.68. Despite crediting 3M with an eventual long-term cyclical recovery, guidance during the prior fourth-quarter earnings call wasn’t even close to what we were hoping to see in 2023 on the top or bottom lines or in terms of cash.
We think our prior thesis hasn’t materialized, and we don’t expect 3M’s fundamentals will improve either in the near or medium term. The uncertainty over the medium term gives us less confidence in our prior long-term assumptions. We think 3M has lost share and faces an eroding competitive position in certain end markets like its healthcare segment, including its health information systems and oral care business divisions. Moreover, we don’t think 3M’s larger organic and inorganic investments have materialized over the years.
We believe that a liability of nearly $4 billion is roughly fair for Combat Arms, based on comparable fact patterns on a per-plaintiff basis, adjusted for inflation. Our number is somewhat higher than the $1 billion 3M initially committed to fund with its settlement trust. We don't believe 3M will be successful in appealing its latest unfavorable bankruptcy ruling. We also earmark about $14 billion in legal liabilities related to PFAS based on comparable environmental and product liability cases.
Some of 3M's most influential long-term growth drivers include the personal protection equipment (excluding near-term respirator headwinds), global medical dressings, and medical software markets, as well as transportation safety and industrial adhesives and tapes. With 3M's current lineup, we forecast the firm will increasingly direct its R&D and capital expenditures toward these divisions, which we conclude are higher-growing portions of GDP. Generally, the PPE market is driven by growing concerns about employee health and safety that are met with new regulations. We believe the firm is well positioned in this segment, given its material science core competency. The PPE market demands innovative products that balance comfort, aesthetics, lighter fabric, and premium quality in protective materials. Rising manufacturing and construction production in developing economies should further propel growth.
In medical solutions, we project a rising incidence of wound infections globally. Diabetes and chronic diseases are on the rise. Aside from legacy strength, the acquisition of Acelity should continue to provide 3M with a stronger footing in the negative-pressure woundcare market and mid-single-digit top-line growth.
15 x 8.68 would give it a $130 price target, currently $105ish. Factor in that Div and that's very nice upside. If they can get back to growth beyond this year, then even more upside.
Morgan Stanley's last report was from early March, had an underweight rating, but $110 price target. Not much by way of stock price upside, but again div yield, and potential growth on the backside.
MS suggests a potential $14b liability due to Combat Arms lawsuit. Yearly rev's of $33b, and earnings of $5b.
These levels for F and GM have held multiple times since their early 2022 highs.
I have been thinking about F and GM for a while, but no legacy automakers are in my custom ETF as of now. Focusing on more pure plays. However, I should eventually add them when the price is compelling.
Just looking at long term projections, 2026 EPS is in line with 2022's. So that's meh.
Granted their' current P/E is 5.6x, so they could beat those projections, and they could enjoy some multiple expansion as they cross over some trough earnings years, as well as if they can successfully transition to EV. I assume trough earnings are due in part to paying for that transition, as their rev's are expected to have continued, though modest, growth.
IBM up slightly on beats.
Chart since covid lows looks pretty good, multiple higher lows as it climbs off of that bottom. And this looks to be a good entry point as it's at the lower end of the channel since. Some recent highs suggest 15% upside, without it actually breaking out. If it can break out, even moreso.
5% div.
Chart since covid lows looks pretty good, multiple higher lows as it climbs off of that bottom. And this looks to be a good entry point as it's at the lower end of the channel since. Some recent highs suggest 15% upside, without it actually breaking out. If it can break out, even moreso.
5% div.
I'm worried that F and GM will be value traps for the next 3-5 years as their ICE businesses weigh them down.
rich people got RICH as shit during the pandemic...........
hence inflation......... I remain amazed people find this hard to follow......
we still have, at least, 3 - and probably closer to 5 TRILLION to wring out.......
More than a few of the moire reliable experts don't expect a kinetic military attack as much as a blockade. China has run the blockage drill a few times already. That can be a tactic to condition opponents to not be desensitized when they do it for real (I recall ISIS victims often looked very calm before being killed. ISIS used to put victims through dry runs). So we could get the economic impact without the fireworks. Personally I'm not in favor of US getting in a war over TSMC. Be nice if Intel could get its act together
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
www.bloomberg.com
Inflation was due to COVID lockdowns, supply chain disruptions, gov'ment overspending, and then Putin at the worst possible time.rich people got RICH as shit during the pandemic...........
hence inflation......... I remain amazed people find this hard to follow......
we still have, at least, 3 - and probably closer to 5 TRILLION to wring out.......
COVID lockdowns are over + Supply chains better + No more gov'ment pandemic spending + Putin is a box = Inflation is over
Pretty simple.
Their ICE businesses for each are cash cows, and what support their transition. No growth, but I don't see it as an anchor.
If you trust they will be successful in the EV market, and that the EV market has real legs, then that should lift the stock price.
Just sold next weeks GM $33 strike puts. 2.5ish% premium. Given I hope it hits, I probably should have sold the $34. Earnings on the 25th.
Also Bob Dasani was talking about Renault which is down 7% today on the TSLA news. Said their earnings were excellent, and they won't be cutting prices. Said they are fine selling less cars at the better margins.
I'll do a deep dive on Renault this weekend. They seem to be leading the way on EV transition for ICE companies.
Maybe you are including it in gov spending but don't forget central banks QE and zero rates.
If you look at the data, inflation may have become transitory in the summer of 2021, but then Delta and Omicron hit and COVID was extended another 9-12 months (especially in China).
the money hasn't disappeared brah........
big big piles of cash..............
"supply chain"....lolz..... COVID didn't break the supply chains - it merely exposed supply chains that had been broken for decades....... west coast ports are worse TODAY than at any time during the 'rona... yes, disinflation is happening...... but, pls. with "supply chains"...........
Covid broke overly efficient, and thus fragile, supply chains. 100% happened.
Are you still long 40,000 shares of TSLA? Have you been writing more calls?
Yes, it actually was.....until Delta and Omicron hit and prolonged the pandemic (including even more gov'ment spending).
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