OT: Stock and Investment Talk

[RU-05]

Maybe, but this sector has been a value trap for over a decade. The increase in supply has kept prices very, very low. Prior to the GFC,natgas was high single digits and no one thought it would ever stay well below $6 for any period of time since that was the marginal cost of production in the Haynesville. Well, tons of bankruptcies since, including CHK, and here we are. Could a post reorg equity in the space be of interest? Perhaps. But you’d need to know what you’re doing.

I recently got in on NRG, (and have been in NJR forever as my mother bought us this when we were young), again, had a higher trailing P/E prior to Covid. Though, unlike HII, the estimates for future earnings look to be higher in 2021.

As to your point about increased production, could fracking restrictions actually help the industry? In the mid term at least?

 

[Frida's Boss]

I recently got in on NRG, (and have been in NJR forever as my mother bought us this when we were young), again, had a higher trailing P/E prior to Covid. Though, unlike HII, the estimates for future earnings look to be higher in 2021.

As to your point about increased production, could fracking restrictions actually help the industry? In the mid term at least?

Are you interested in electric utilities or natural gas E&P?

 

[RU-05]

I do like the idea of throwing a couple dollars down on CHK(currently CHKAQ).

This thing was selling for $1000 a share in 2018. Over $600 in 2019, and near $200 earlier this year. Currently at $1.50, and still trending downward.

I don't like the long term outlook of any oil company, but If oil demand can rebound in 2021, you could/should see a bounce in the stock price in the entire sector and perhaps a bigger bounce in those like CHK that have been hit the hardest.

Isn't the idea there too that inflation helps oil companies?

Super small position provides low risk high reward potential.

#shawshbuckling

Edit: Chesapeake Energy's highly anticipated post-bankruptcy plan partially revealed in SEC filing (oklahoman.com) I haven't actually read it yet.

 

[RU-05]

Are you interested in electric utilities or natural gas E&P?

Sure. I have few restrictions.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Perhaps, but how well placed are you to judge the early signs of inflation that could spur rates higher? Sure, if you’re able to anticipate such a move before equities and other risk assets react, that sounds like a good strategy. Just realize you’ve entered the realm of a global macro investor.

No, not trying to predict that before equities react, but rather quickly ID the new trends to take advantage of. In the 2000s, trends were broad and long term. Value over growth, pharma/HC over large cap indexes, etc. Those are the trends I am looking for once this party is over.

 

[ScarletNut]

I do like the idea of throwing a couple dollars down on CHK(currently CHKAQ).

This thing was selling for $1000 a share in 2018. Over $600 in 2019, and near $200 earlier this year. Currently at $1.50, and still trending downward.

I don't like the long term outlook of any oil company, but If oil demand can rebound in 2021, you could/should see a bounce in the stock price in the entire sector and perhaps a bigger bounce in those like CHK that have been hit the hardest.

Isn't the idea there too that inflation helps oil companies?

Super small position provides low risk high reward potential.

#shawshbuckling

Edit: Chesapeake Energy's highly anticipated post-bankruptcy plan partially revealed in SEC filing (oklahoman.com) I haven't actually read it yet.

There's another investment saying, "don't try to catch a falling knife".

 

[Frida's Boss]

No, not trying to predict that before equities react, but rather quickly ID the new trends to take advantage of. In the 2000s, trends were broad and long term. Value over growth, pharma/HC over large cap indexes, etc. Those are the trends I am looking for once this party is over.

I wish you luck. Many have tried your suggested approach. A lot harder than it sounds.

 

[Frida's Boss]

Sure. I have few restrictions.

I asked because you mentioned an interest in natural gas, but then mentioned two power companies. Sure, depending on their mix of power plants, they have natural gas exposure, but you don’t typically buy utilities if nat gas exposure is what you’re after.

 

[Frida's Boss]

I do like the idea of throwing a couple dollars down on CHK(currently CHKAQ).

This thing was selling for $1000 a share in 2018. Over $600 in 2019, and near $200 earlier this year. Currently at $1.50, and still trending downward.

I don't like the long term outlook of any oil company, but If oil demand can rebound in 2021, you could/should see a bounce in the stock price in the entire sector and perhaps a bigger bounce in those like CHK that have been hit the hardest.

Isn't the idea there too that inflation helps oil companies?

Super small position provides low risk high reward potential.

#shawshbuckling

Edit: Chesapeake Energy's highly anticipated post-bankruptcy plan partially revealed in SEC filing (oklahoman.com) I haven't actually read it yet.

Make sure you are looking at the equity post-emergence and NOT the equity prior to the filing. If you buy the latter, you will enjoy a 100% tax write off. Also, I’d double check the prices you quoted from 2018 and 2019.

 

[Frida's Boss]

There's another investment saying, "don't try to catch a falling knife".

That’s not a particularly good one, though. The best bargains tend to be had in the storm of indiscriminate selling, when the knife is falling. While it’s optimal to buy at the bottom, or shortly off the lows, it’s practically impossible to do so. Yes, it means you’ll have to stomach some short term market decline, but if you’re analysis is right, you’ll have a good purchase, I guess I prefer the investment saying, “Buy when there‘s blood on the streets,” or better yet, “when it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.”

 

[T2Kplus20]

I wish you luck. Many have tried your suggested approach. A lot harder than it sounds.

+1
I will try, but can't predict my level of success. We shall see! Let's hope the party rolls on for a while longer.

Just reset all of my E-Trade watch lists for the start of 2021. Onwards!

 

[ScarletNut]

That’s not a particularly good one, though. The best bargains tend to be had in the storm of indiscriminate selling, when the knife is falling. While it’s optimal to buy at the bottom, or shortly off the lows, it’s practically impossible to do so. Yes, it means you’ll have to stomach some short term market decline, but if you’re analysis is right, you’ll have a good purchase, I guess I prefer the investment saying, “Buy when there‘s blood on the streets,” or better yet, “when it’s time to buy, you won’t want to.”

The key to your post is "if your analysis is right" which I wholeheartedly agree with.

 

[Frida's Boss]

The key to your post is "if your analysis is right" which I wholeheartedly agree with.

If you are unable to analyze and value a business, you shouldn’t invest in individual stocks. That said, the same reasoning applies to buying indices.

 

[RU-05]

Make sure you are looking at the equity post-emergence and NOT the equity prior to the filing. If you buy the latter, you will enjoy a 100% tax write off. Also, I’d double check the prices you quoted from 2018 and 2019.

I do wonder sometimes when looking at some of these charts the price from a couple years back. But I am seeing $12K back in 2008. Is it because of splits?

 

[tom1944]

Reading all of these posts make me more comfortable with my decision to buy the Total Market for my equity exposure.

I really do not want to put in the work required to buy individual stocks or to try to guess what segment of the market will outperform or underperform the others

 

[BIGRUBIGDBIGredmachine]

Watching CNBC is like reading the headlines of a newspaper and thinking you have the whole story.

I like CNBC's economic analysis over Bloom's so will switch to them when job numbers, gdp reports, etc. come out. Bloomberg is much better with markets analysis and commentary imho.

 

[RU-05]

I like CNBC's economic analysis over Bloom's so will switch to them when job numbers, gdp reports, etc. come out. Bloomberg is much better with markets analysis and commentary imho.

I've never watched during the trading day, I'll have to give it a go.

 

[phs73rc77gsm83]

Reading all of these posts make me more comfortable with my decision to buy the Total Market for my equity exposure.

I really do not want to put in the work required to buy individual stocks or to try to guess what segment of the market will outperform or underperform the others

Nothing wrong with that at all, Tom.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Reading all of these posts make me more comfortable with my decision to buy the Total Market for my equity exposure.

I really do not want to put in the work required to buy individual stocks or to try to guess what segment of the market will outperform or underperform the others

+1
I'm one step further from you on the active trading curve, but still very much on the passive side. Big no for me on individual stocks.

 

[Night Man]

Any experienced option writers here?

 

[RUTGERS95]

oil...oil is where you want to be

 

[bob-loblaw]

Current "speculative" value.

Let me ask crypto investors: do you actually use bitcoin?

No and I don't intend to. I use it as a store of value, digital gold if you will. Tulips came and went never to come back. Bitcoin has been around for 12 years+/-. It has proven its resilience. Now its in the early phase of its acceptance. In any event, I'm not here to proselytize ownership, just trying to simplify the subject, which is a totally new concept to absorb. A weak analogy would be the early stages of electric vehicles that got 20 miles to a charge, couldn't go faster than 50 mph. Most people said the public would never accept electric vehicles.

I was reading this board this AM before I looked at the price of BTC. 30k baby!

It's value is what it is worth and what people will pay for it. No different than any stock price on the exchanges.

I use it to hodl or essentially I save it. Square, Paypal & Venmo use (or will be soon) it as a currency. That part is huge, It is being used as a currency by major tech players. That's what drove the initial price jump this year form 10-11k up to 15.16k. It's also what is driving the future. The youth are the future. How many of your kids do nothing but pay their friends via Venmo? Cash is foreign. Just like gold is foreign as a store of wealth to them.

Youve had the prefect enviro this year to get into BTC. Congrats to those who did. The pandemic forced a liquidity crisis, crashing the price in March. The halving occurred in May. Paul Tudor Jones publicly announces he's allocated 1% to BTC. Microstrategy announces their 500mil holding. Square 50 mil. Paypal/Venmo allowing it on their platform. Cramer endorsing it. The Fed printing trillions. Major Wall St firms holding more of it or Greyscale. I could go on.

The price is going to fall soon. It's a foregone conclusion. Wall Street is going to continue taking their 100% returns for their clients and cash out. Every time it dips, the rebound is quick.

I know Im discussing this with those who most likely will never change their minds on Bitcoin. Which is fine.

The scarcity of BTC (21 mil) will keep it as a store of value. The amount will never go above that. Blockchain technology is a remarkable asset and countries have already begun implementing their own coins. all that does is give validity to BTC.

BTC, with its 70% crypto market share is not going anywhere. The alt coins havent really run yet with this BTC bull run. I have a feeling thats coming soon.

As long as you have the stomach to swallow short term volatility, I think it's foolish for anyone under 50 not to have a small % of their portfolio in BTC.

 

[jtung230]

My portfolio was up 15%. That included 15% fixed income and 15% cash. Had a good year in fixed income thanks to some timely purchases in March.

 

[ScarletNut]

I was reading this board this AM before I looked at the price of BTC. 30k baby!

It's value is what it is worth and what people will pay for it. No different than any stock price on the exchanges.

I use it to hodl or essentially I save it. Square, Paypal & Venmo use (or will be soon) it as a currency. That part is huge, It is being used as a currency by major tech players. That's what drove the initial price jump this year form 10-11k up to 15.16k. It's also what is driving the future. The youth are the future. How many of your kids do nothing but pay their friends via Venmo? Cash is foreign. Just like gold is foreign as a store of wealth to them.

Youve had the prefect enviro this year to get into BTC. Congrats to those who did. The pandemic forced a liquidity crisis, crashing the price in March. The halving occurred in May. Paul Tudor Jones publicly announces he's allocated 1% to BTC. Microstrategy announces their 500mil holding. Square 50 mil. Paypal/Venmo allowing it on their platform. Cramer endorsing it. The Fed printing trillions. Major Wall St firms holding more of it or Greyscale. I could go on.

The price is going to fall soon. It's a foregone conclusion. Wall Street is going to continue taking their 100% returns for their clients and cash out. Every time it dips, the rebound is quick.

I know Im discussing this with those who most likely will never change their minds on Bitcoin. Which is fine.

The scarcity of BTC (21 mil) will keep it as a store of value. The amount will never go above that. Blockchain technology is a remarkable asset and countries have already begun implementing their own coins. all that does is give validity to BTC.

BTC, with its 70% crypto market share is not going anywhere. The alt coins havent really run yet with this BTC bull run. I have a feeling thats coming soon.

As long as you have the stomach to swallow short term volatility, I think it's foolish for anyone under 50 not to have a small % of their portfolio in BTC.

Broke 31,500 this morning. There will be dips along the way, just as there was in previous halvings. 14 million of the 21 million coins are held by whales and HODLers. So the scarcity is even more pronounced. With the institutions participating in it as a store of value, not as a currency or even as an equity, 100k by the summer is not unreasonable.

 

[ScarletNut]

@RU-05 , keep an eye on RIOT, MARA and GBTC on Monday

 

[T2Kplus20]

Broke 31,500 this morning. There will be dips along the way, just as there was in previous halvings. 14 million of the 21 million coins are held by whales and HODLers. So the scarcity is even more pronounced. With the institutions participating in it as a store of value, not as a currency or even as an equity, 100k by the summer is not unreasonable.

Sorry, but Bitcoin looks like a perfect way to lose money. Speculative fad with no intrinsic value. That's gambling, not investing.

 

[RU-05]

@RU-05 , keep an eye on RIOT, MARA and GBTC on Monday

Ya I see your post above, BTC keeps flying.

I'm in on Riot and GBTC. GBTC was up on Thursday, but RIOT and MARA(30% off it's highs from earlier in the week) were down, I believe this is because money was flowing to BTBT which was up more then 3x this past week. So I think money is chasing money here.

Consider this. BTBT which had an average volume of around 1million per day a couple weeks ago, saw a volume of 80million on Thursday. Pretty interesting to watch really. Maybe it rotates back to RIOT and MARA if someone sticks a pin in the BTBT run?


I also threw a couple bucks on BTCS which is a penny stock that was down. Again, think this might have been money flowing towards BTBT.

 

[JayDogSmooth]

Reading all of these posts make me more comfortable with my decision to buy the Total Market for my equity exposure.

I really do not want to put in the work required to buy individual stocks or to try to guess what segment of the market will outperform or underperform the others

What’s the total market fund you’re in?

 

[tom1944]

What’s the total market fund you’re in?

Vanguard

 

[RU-05]

Sorry, but Bitcoin looks like a perfect way to lose money. Speculative fad with no intrinsic value. That's gambling, not investing.

It is certainly a different game then investing in funds.

 

[T2Kplus20]

Vanguard

Fund = VTSAX (regular) or VSTSX (institutional)
ETF = VTI

 

[T2Kplus20]

It is certainly a different game then investing in funds.

Buy and hold. Unless you are day trading to generate living income.

 

[RU-05]

Buy and hold. Unless you are day trading to generate living income.

Those are two possible ways to go about it. There are others.

Edit: Maybe better to say those are two ends of the spectrum and there is plenty of middle ground?

 

[tom1944]

Fund = VTSAX (regular) or VSTSX (institutional)
ETF = VTI

VTSAX

 

[ScarletNut]

Sorry, but Bitcoin looks like a perfect way to lose money. Speculative fad with no intrinsic value. That's gambling, not investing.

As I've posted before, its only a small portion of my portfolio, my "play money" if you will. As far as what you could classify it, somewhere between speculative and investment. Too many people much smarter than I am are involved with it.

 

[bob-loblaw]

As I've posted before, its only a small portion of my portfolio, my "play money" if you will. As far as what you could classify it, somewhere between speculative and investment. Too many people much smarter than I am are involved with it.

I agree. Shit was stupid in 2017, when your uber driver or waiter was talking about BTC. Look now, it's barely getting play, which is BEAUTIFUL. It barely has the chatter it did then, except a lot more people are buying and holding it.

And there is a TON of risk right now for anyone getting in at this level. I've been saying for 2 weeks, "wait for the dip" but that dip just isnt happening. THe last dip we saw was Thanksgiving and that was short lived. I was literally driving down the NJTP, got a price alert and grabbed more while the price was almost half of what it is now.

 

[jtung230]

It’s the FOMO effect. Everyone is telling anyone who’ll listen that they some exposure to it. The problem comes when there is a stampede exit. No value buyer will step in to stop the slide.

 

[RU-05]

I agree. Shit was stupid in 2017, when your uber driver or waiter was talking about BTC. Look now, it's barely getting play, which is BEAUTIFUL. It barely has the chatter it did then, except a lot more people are buying and holding it.

And there is a TON of risk right now for anyone getting in at this level. I've been saying for 2 weeks, "wait for the dip" but that dip just isnt happening. THe last dip we saw was Thanksgiving and that was short lived. I was literally driving down the NJTP, got a price alert and grabbed more while the price was almost half of what it is now.

I'm hearing a ton of chatter on CNBC.

Maybe the difference this time, as noted, is the chatter is on the institutional level, and not at the cab driver level.

 

[RU-05]

It’s the FOMO effect. Everyone is telling anyone who’ll listen that they some exposure to it. The problem comes when there is a stampede exit. No value buyer will step in to stop the slide.

I think chart guys will absolutely give it a look if it gets back near 19K.

 

[RU-05]

Anyways, just going through the list and checking earnings/rev growth trajectories.

And I can't find anything anywhere even close to IIPR. A cannabis focused REIT. Current P/E of 60x, but the curve is just about perfect and likely continues out beyond the estimates, so I guess you have to pay a premium for that level of growth.



RWLK is a $32mil mkt cap company currently trading at $1.32. Estimates have it's revenue growing 4x by 2023. Though unlike IIRP it has seen decreasing rev's over the past couple years(it's stock price has come down over that time as well) and does not and is not expected to make money during the estimated timeline.